Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 15.1% compared to the first quarter of 2021 after growing by 6.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate on Thursday.
The economy of Ukraine is gradually recovering from the level of the greatest fall in March thanks to the regions where there are no active hostilities, as a result, the decline in May this year (against the same month last year) slowed down to 35-40%, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.
The National Bank expects Ukraine’s GDP to fall by at least a third in 2022, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said during the presentation of the report on financial stability.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates Ukraine’s losses from destroyed housing, business and infrastructure due to Russian aggression at 50% of GDP in 2021, or $100 billion, according to a financial stability report published on the central bank’s website on Tuesday.
The real GDP of Ukraine will decrease by more than a third in 2022, inflation accelerated to 20% in the first half of the year, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2022 fell by almost 97.6% compared to the same period in 2021, to $29.6 million from $1.237 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2022 slowed down to 2.7% from 3.1% in April and 4.5% in March, but exceeded 1.6% in February and 1.3% in January, the State Statistics Service said on Thursday.
The state budget deficit in January-May 2022 exceeded annual deficits of the previous two years, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in its June macroeconomic and monetary review.
Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
South Korean Samsung Electronics may launch its own cryptocurrency exchange next year, according to Market Watch, citing local media.
Samsung is one of seven South Korean companies that have recently submitted applications to regulators for licenses needed to create a cryptocurrency exchange. Other companies include Mirae Asset Securities Co., one of the nation’s largest stock market brokers.
According to South Korean media, Samsung expects to create a new exchange in the first half of 2023.
This is not Samsung’s first move into the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this year, the company added a cryptocurrency wallet feature to its Galaxy smartphones.
YouTube channel “Club of Experts” – another video review of current events and events for the next week.
The founder of the club of experts Maksim Urakin, together with co-host Olga Levkun, spoke about the main news in Ukraine and the world from August 8 to 14, 2022.
So, in Ukraine, the next week will be quite rich in various events and activities. In particular, it is planned to hold several conferences and round tables dedicated to supporting the economy during the war, the prospects for the development of the banking sector, information security, etc. Such world-famous economists and politicians as Francis Fukuyama, Oliver Hart, Ivan Miklos, Leszek Balcerowicz are expected to speak.
Among the world events next week, one can single out the meetings of the heads of military and diplomatic departments of the EU countries, where Ukrainian representatives will also be present. The main topic of the meetings will be building up support for Ukraine. The publication of up-to-date statistical data by the world’s leading economies is also expected. Among sporting events, the main one is the start of one of the world’s major tennis tournaments – the US Open and EuroBasket 2022, which will be held in four countries at once. More about this on the sports portal sport.ua.
Also next week, several landmark international conferences and exhibitions are expected to take place, including the B-20-G-20 Dialogue in Indonesia and IFA-2022 in Berlin.
Watch these and other events in a new video on the Club of Experts channel at the link:
You can subscribe to the Expert Club channel here – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4plQ0XBaoLOKPIXrb1aMGQ
ANNOUNCEMENTS, EVENTS, EXPERT_CLUB, URAKIN, ЛЕВКУН, МАКСИМ_УРАКИН
The IAEA mission to support and assist the Zaporozhye NPP is already on its way, said the head of the agency, Rafael Grossi.
“The day has come, the IAEA mission to support and assist the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is already on its way. We must ensure the safety of the largest nuclear facility in Ukraine and in Europe. I am proud to lead this mission, which will arrive at the ZNPP later this week,” he wrote. Grossi tweeted Monday morning. Earlier, the “Club of Experts” project released a fresh analysis of the events of the week, including the visit of the IAEA mission to Ukraine, see more details here –
LLC “Kulinichi” (Kharkiv region), a major manufacturer of bread and bakery products, has begun construction of a bakery in the Lviv region with a capacity of up to 150 tons of bread per day, part of which will be sold for export, according to the Ukrainian diplomat’s Facebook page Mikhail Bno-Ayriyan.
At the same time, it is specified that investments in the enterprise will amount to EUR 20 million over two years, part of the equipment for the plant will be transported from the Kulinichi plant in the Kharkiv region.
In turn, the bread manufacturer on his official Facebook page confirmed that he had begun construction of an enterprise in the Lviv region, but stressed that this did not mean the closure of the plant in the Kharkiv region.
“Yes, we are really building a new plant near Lviv. We are not closing the plant in Kharkiv, we are not closing our retail outlets in Kharkiv (…) We will bake bread for you, no matter what,” the Kulinichi page says in social network.
LLC “Kulinichi”, operating in Ukraine since 1995, unites 8 bakeries of the Kharkiv region and plants of the Poltava, Donetsk and Kyiv regions.
Since 1999, LLC has been cooperating with the Slovenian enterprise Gostol-Gopan.
Oil prices are rising on Monday, traders are watching the situation in Libya, as well as the progress of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Over the weekend, clashes between two armed groups took place in Tripoli, as a result of which more than 20 people were killed, Bloomberg reports. This raised fears that Libya is waiting for another full-scale conflict, as a result of which oil supplies to the world market will be reduced.
Iran, meanwhile, will continue to study US proposals for a nuclear deal until at least September 2, state news agency Nour News reported.
The cost of October futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:15 am CST on Monday is $101.88 per barrel, which is $0.89 (0.88%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Friday, these contracts rose by $1.65 (1.7%) to $100.99 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for October in the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $94.06 per barrel by this time, which is $1 (1.07%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the market on Friday, the value of these contracts increased by $0.54 (0.6%) to $93.06 per barrel.
As a result of the past week, Brent has risen in price by 4.4%, WTI – by 2.9%.
“Despite the hawkish stance of the world’s largest central banks, which means further hikes in interest rates and weakening economic growth, oil continues to rise in price as the balance of supply and demand speaks in favor of higher prices,” said James Whistler, managing director of Vanir Global Markets Pte in Singapore. “The possibility of OPEC production cuts remains, as Libya and Congo support the position of Saudi Arabia, while the problem of oil supplies from Kazakhstan also remains,” Bloomberg quoted the expert as saying.
