The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product growth in 2026 to 2.2% due to the protracted war, but notes that macroeconomic stability has been maintained thanks to external support.
“This is slightly lower than the 2.5% forecast published in February, but should hostilities ease and post-war reconstruction begin, the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 4.0%,” according to the EBRD’s “Regional Economic Prospects” (REP) report, published on Wednesday.
The bank emphasizes that Ukraine is maintaining macroeconomic stability even in the fifth year of Russia’s aggressive war thanks to significant external financing. The outlook continues to depend largely on the course of the war and the availability of external financial support.
“The main downside risk to the forecast is linked to the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which could significantly worsen Ukraine’s already unstable energy situation,” the report states.
The EBRD attributes the slowdown in economic growth to 1.8% in 2025 and the weak start this year to ongoing wartime constraints: labor shortages and persistent attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted industrial activity and logistics, while broader supply chain issues have limited production.
The bank notes that inflation has also begun to rise again after slowing to 7.4% in January 2026 following a period of tighter monetary policy and relative exchange rate stability. Higher global energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East are adding new pressure, increasing costs for businesses and households and contributing to a resurgence of inflationary momentum.
According to the EBRD, fiscal support remains crucial. Ukraine’s budget deficit, excluding grants, reached 23.6% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to remain elevated at 19.3% of GDP in 2026, reflecting exceptionally high spending on defense and social services. These needs are financed largely through official external support, which continues to underpin macroeconomic stability. The allocated external financing of over EUR110 billion for 2026–27 is expected to mitigate short-term risks.
The Bank notes that it is Ukraine’s largest institutional investor and has significantly increased its support in response to the full-scale war: since its onset in February 2022, the EBRD has allocated nearly EUR10.0 billion to Ukraine.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April.
The government’s forecast, included in the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev recently announced plans to revise it downward.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.
Metinvest-Resource LLC (Zaporizhzhia) increased its net profit by 20.3% in January–March of this year compared to the same period last year—to UAH 7.044 million from UAH 5.857 million.
According to the company’s interim report, available to the agency “Interfax-Ukraine,” revenue from ordinary activities for this period rose by 11.1%—to UAH 1.188955 billion from UAH 1.338114 billion.
The accumulated loss as of the end of March stood at UAH 32.398 million.
In 2025, the LLC reported a net profit of UAH 62.679 million, while revenue from ordinary activities for this period increased by 42.4% compared to 2024—to UAH 5.673455 billion from UAH 3.982851 billion.
Sales volume of finished products in 2025 and 2024 amounted to 108,165 thousand tons and 113,321 thousand tons, respectively.
The number of employees as of the end of 2025 was 35, and as of the end of 2024, it was 34. Labor costs for full-time employees in 2024 amounted to UAH 19.595 million, and in 2025, to UAH 22.7899 million.
In 2024, the LLC reported a net profit of UAH 6.085 million, whereas it ended 2023 with a loss of UAH 43.270 million, and in 2022, the net loss was UAH 129.227 million.
Metinvest-Resource LLC is the exclusive supplier of ferrous metal scrap to the Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises of the Metinvest Group. The company’s main activities include the wholesale trade of waste and scrap (primary) and the processing of scrap metal. As of the end of 2025, the company’s registered address is in Zaporizhzhia. The company’s capacity allows it to meet the needs of enterprises and amounts to approximately 0.693 million tons of raw materials per year.
The LLC’s authorized capital is UAH 6.437 million.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of mining and metallurgical enterprises. The holding’s main shareholders are the SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%). Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest Group.
METALLURGY, METINVEST, Metinvest-Resource, PROFIT, SCRAP METAL
According to data from Idealista, the cost of renting a home in Spain hit an all-time high in May 2026, averaging 15.1 euros per square meter per month.
Rents rose by 0.6% over the month and by 4% year-over-year. The previous high was recorded in early 2026, when the average rate stood at around €15 per square meter. Thus, the Spanish rental market continues to grow despite the government’s attempts to curb pressure on the housing market.
The rise in prices is linked to a persistent imbalance where demand exceeds supply, particularly in major cities, tourist regions, and areas with a high concentration of jobs. The market is also influenced by a shortage of affordable rental housing, the shift of some apartments to short-term rentals, rising demand from migrants and students, as well as caution among landlords following tighter regulations.
In April 2026, the average rent in Spain was €15 per square meter, which was 5.2% higher than in April 2025. In May, the figure rose to €15.1 per square meter, though the annual growth rate slowed to 4%.
The most expensive markets remain the major economic and tourist hubs. In Madrid, the average rent in April reached €23.3 per square meter per month, which is 8.6% higher than a year earlier. This is one of the highest levels among the country’s largest markets.
At the provincial level, rents rose across nearly all of Spain in the spring of 2026. Prices rose in 49 of 50 provinces, with the sole exception being Barcelona, where a decline of 8.5% was recorded. The largest increases were recorded in Lleida, Toledo, Guadalajara, and Segovia.
High rental rates are intensifying social and political pressure surrounding the housing market. In recent years, Spanish authorities have been discussing restrictions on short-term rentals, expanding affordable housing, regulating rental rates in high-demand areas, and offering incentives to landlords willing to rent out apartments at moderate prices.
For foreign buyers and investors, rising rents mean continued interest in Spanish real estate as an income-generating asset, but at the same time, they increase regulatory risks. In regions with a housing shortage, authorities may tighten rules for vacation rentals and impose additional restrictions on short-term rentals.
Spain remains one of the largest real estate markets in Southern Europe. Rental demand is driven by major cities, international migration, tourism, the student sector, and the remote work market. The tightest market conditions persist in Madrid, Barcelona, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Malaga, Valencia, and other popular cities and coastal regions.
Georgia’s residential real estate market continues to grow: in April 2026, apartment sales in Tbilisi and Batumi showed double-digit growth, and foreign buyers remain a key driver of demand, particularly on the Black Sea coast.
According to data from the Recov.ge platform, developed by Colliers Georgia, 3,603 apartment transactions were recorded in Tbilisi in April 2026, a 12.7% increase compared to the same month last year. The market’s total transaction value grew by 28.3% to reach $310 million.
Growth in the capital was recorded in both the primary and secondary markets. The number of transactions in new projects increased by 14.6% year-over-year, including a 10.7% increase in the primary market and a 20.4% increase in the secondary market for new construction. Transactions involving older apartments also rose—by 6.2%.
Prices in Tbilisi also continued to rise. In April, the weighted average price per square meter for new apartments rose by 10.2% in the suburbs, by 2.2% in the wider city center, and by 12.1% in the city center. Overall in Tbilisi, the price of primary market transactions increased by 11.2%, and in the secondary market by 11%.
At the same time, the capital’s market remains predominantly domestic. In April 2026, Georgian citizens continued to dominate among buyers in both older and new developments, while foreign buyers accounted for 10.7%.
In Batumi, the market is more dependent on foreign demand. In April 2026, 1,292 apartments were sold in the city, which is 12.3% more than a year earlier. The market’s total value grew by 27.4% to reach $85 million. For comparison, 1,165 apartments were sold in Batumi in April 2025, and 1,234 in April 2024.
The new-construction segment saw the most active growth. Sales of apartments in new projects increased by 12.3%, while transactions involving existing housing decreased by 5.4%. Growth in the primary market was 13.3%, and in the secondary market for modern projects, 11.6%.
The weighted average price per square meter in new buildings in Batumi rose by 11.3% year-over-year in April, reaching $1,351. Price growth was 15.2% in the primary market and 9.4% in the secondary market.
The main feature of Batumi remains the high share of foreign buyers. In April 2026, foreigners accounted for 47% of transactions involving both older and new apartments, as well as 90% of the total increase in the number of transactions. This means that foreign demand was the primary driver of the market’s acceleration.
According to Galt & Taggart data for the first quarter of 2026, the share of foreigners in the Batumi apartment market was even higher: Georgian citizens purchased 37% of apartments, while foreign buyers accounted for 63% of transactions. Buyers from European countries constituted the largest group, accounting for 18% of all sales. Another 16% of transactions were made by citizens of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus. Buyers from Israel accounted for 10%, from Turkey—4%, from Arab countries—3%, and from other countries—about 12%.
This structure indicates that Batumi remains an investment market focused on external demand, short-term rentals, and the purchase of resort real estate. In contrast, Tbilisi remains primarily a residential market: according to TBC Capital, about 80% of purchases in the capital are for residential purposes, whereas in Batumi, about 85% of purchases are for investment purposes.
In the longer term, the Georgian market continues to normalize following the surge in 2022, when demand rose sharply due to migration flows. According to TBC Capital, in 2024–2025, demand growth slowed to 5.6–6.0% per year, and in 2026, the company forecasts residential real estate market growth of approximately 4.5%.
In 2025, according to TBC Capital, 78,500 real estate transactions were registered in Georgia, which is 6% more than the previous year. Of these, 49,200 transactions were in the secondary market, and another 29,300 were in the primary market. The average housing price in Tbilisi reached $1,312 per square meter, increasing by 4.1% over the year, while in Batumi it reached $1,395 per square meter, which is 16.5% higher than the previous year’s level.
Georgia remains attractive to foreign buyers due to its relatively low entry barrier, growing tourist traffic, straightforward transaction processes, and high rental yields compared to many European markets. However, rapid growth in supply, particularly in Batumi, and a gradual decline in rental yields may limit further price growth.
Effective March 1, 2026, Georgia also raised the minimum real estate investment threshold for obtaining a temporary residence permit to $150,000. This may shift demand toward more expensive properties and long-term investors, but at the same time reduce interest among some buyers focused on smaller apartments.
The Unisteel LLC plant (Unisteel, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), which manufactures galvanized cold-rolled flat steel and is part of the Metinvest Group, reported a net profit of UAH 32.997 million in January-March of this year, compared to a net loss of UAH 90.003 million for the same period last year.
According to the company’s interim report, which is available to the agency “Interfax-Ukraine,” revenue from ordinary activities for this period decreased by 14.6% to UAH 771.729 million.
The accumulated loss as of the end of March amounted to UAH 1.020596 billion.
In 2025, the company reported a net loss of UAH 13.251 million, while revenue from ordinary activities for this period decreased by 10.6% compared to 2024—to UAH 3.259437 billion from UAH 3.648463 billion. Sales volume of finished products in 2025 and 2024 amounted to 108,165 thousand tons and 113,321 thousand tons, respectively.
The number of employees as of the end of 2025 was 99, and as of the end of 2024, it was 144. In 2025, the payroll fund amounted to UAH 38,445,496 thousand.
The LLC ended 2024 with a loss of 363.768 million UAH, while in 2023 this figure was 255.057 million UAH.
The main products manufactured by the plant are galvanized flat-rolled products with a thickness ranging from 0.40 mm to 2.50 mm, a width ranging from 600 to 1,250 mm, and a coating weight (Zn) of 60–275 g/m². The company’s products are supplied to both the Ukrainian and European markets. Poland and Romania are the main export markets for the company’s products.
The Unistil plant for the production of cold-rolled galvanized flat steel with a capacity of over 100,000 tons per year was built between 2007 and 2010. It is equipped with machinery from Dongbu Machinery Co., Ltd. (South Korea).
The authorized capital of Unistil LLC is UAH 6.01 million.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Its facilities are located in Ukraine—in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions—as well as in European countries. The holding’s main shareholders are the SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%). Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest Group.
Ukraine allocates $45–50 billion annually to weapons production, and funding for the Armed Forces is secured, stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Ukraine is currently allocating $45–50 billion annually to weapons production. We have managed to reach what I consider to be a very high level. We have the funds to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We must ensure precisely this sufficient level of funding for both production and the army, and not just for now, for these years, but for the long term,” Zelenskyy said at a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday.
The head of state noted that Ukraine is working to provide “this level of funding, unprecedented in our history,” exclusively for all types of domestically produced weapons.
On April 20, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is investing $30 billion in the defense industry for 2026, but the defense sector is ready to produce $60 billion worth of goods.
