The Chinese president will visit France, Serbia and Hungary this week. His trip comes at a time of strained relations with many European countries over trade and allegations of Chinese espionage.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Europe this week for the first time in five years, with stops in France, Serbia and Hungary.
Mr. Xi’s trip comes at a time of tension with many European countries over China’s support for Russia amid the war in Ukraine, its trade practices and apparent spying activities. The trip will also test Europe’s delicate balancing act between China and the United States.
Xi hopes to avert a trade war with the European Union as friction grows over Chinese electric car exports and reduced access for European companies to the Chinese market. Xi will also encourage French President Emmanuel Macron to seek greater autonomy from the United States in an effort to weaken Washington’s global dominance.
Here’s what we know about Mr. Xi’s trip, which began on Sunday.
What is the significance of Mr. Xi’s itinerary?
Experts say the three countries Mr. Xi will visit support, to varying degrees, China’s drive to overhaul the global order. All of them to varying degrees question America’s post-war world order and seek to strengthen ties with Beijing.
Hungary has close ties with China and is seeking to attract Chinese investment in areas such as electric cars and batteries as Chinese manufacturers expand beyond Asia. Serbia also has warm relations with Beijing and has attracted billions of dollars in Chinese investment.
Mr. Xi’s first stop will be France, where Mr. Macron recently declared that Europe “should never be a vassal of the United States” and turned France into a bridge between the Global South and Western powers.
Despite Beijing’s advances, Mr. Macron said he remains closer to his ally, the United States, than to China.
“I prefer to choose my relationship with the United States, with China, rather than have it imposed on me by one of the two parties that either pushes me one way or pulls me the other way,” he said in an interview with The Economist. However, he added. “It is quite clear that we are not equidistant. We are allies of the Americans.”
Before Mr. Xi’s visit, Chinese diplomats expressed hope that ties between France and China would take a leading role in China’s relations with the West.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will attend talks with Mr. Xi and Mr. Macron in Paris on Monday.
This year is also symbolic for China and the three countries.
It is the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and France and the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Hungary.
This year also marks the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Serbia, during the Kosovo war, which killed three Chinese journalists and sparked angry protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Chinese officials continue to point to the bombing as a sign of NATO aggression and an example of why Russia was right to feel threatened before deciding to invade Ukraine.
When was the last time Mr. Xi visited Europe?
Mr. Xi last visited Europe in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic, after which he spent time in China, leaving the country’s borders for the first time in the fall of 2022.
The 2019 trip included a colorful ceremony in Rome to celebrate Italy’s participation in China’s Belt and Road global infrastructure project, which aims to expand China’s influence abroad. France rolled out the red carpet for Mr. Xi in Paris and signed more than a dozen commercial and government contracts worth billions of euros, though Mr. Macron warned that “China is playing on our differences” and that “the period of European naivete is over.”
Mr. Xi also visited Greece, where he pledged support for that country in its fight with Britain to obtain the Parthenon sculptures, known as the Elgin Marbles.
How are relations between Europe and China faring?
Since Mr. Xi’s last visit, there has been a growing rift in relations between China and much of Europe. The coronavirus pandemic, Beijing’s embrace of Russia and crackdown on ethnic minorities, and the surge in Chinese exports have sparked a backlash against China in many European countries.
China has quintupled its shipments of automobiles to foreign markets in recent years, and the European Union has recently taken a more confrontational stance toward China’s trade practices. EU authorities have launched an investigation that could lead to restrictions on Chinese solar panel exports and have taken preliminary steps to limit trade in Chinese goods including electric cars, wind turbines and medical devices.
Italy has also told China that it will no longer participate in its Belt and Road Initiative, and last month within a week, six people in Europe were charged with spying for China, indicating that European countries are stepping up measures to combat Chinese espionage.
At the same time, European countries have different views on how to engage with Beijing and capitalize on economic opportunities, and some fear the imposition of European tariffs.
Mr. Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also believe China’s influence will be crucial to ending the war in Ukraine.
Insurance group “TAS” (Kiev) for January-March 2024 paid out under the concluded insurance contracts indemnities in the amount of UAH 465,89 mln, which is 50,8% more than in the same period of the previous year.
According to the insurer’s website, more than a quarter of its payments (27,54% or UAH 128,31 mln) following the results of the first quarter fell on CASCO, which is 33% higher than the corresponding indicator for the same period of the last year, 35,46% or UAH 165,21 mln – on MTPL insurance (+ 40,1%), 18,91% or UAH 88,12 mln – on voluntary medical insurance (+62,6%)
At the same time, the company has paid UAH 2,8 mln of indemnities under property insurance contracts during the reporting period – by 38,3% more than in the first three months of the last year.
The volume of payments under other insurance contracts amounted to UAH 10.92 mln, which is 30.9% higher than in the same period of 2023.
SG “TAS” was registered in 1998. It is a universal company offering its clients more than 80 types of insurance products on various types of voluntary and compulsory insurance. It has an extensive regional network: 28 regional directorates and branches and 450 sales offices throughout Ukraine.
According to the Unified State Register (USR), there are 1,286 addresses for mass registration of companies in Ukraine. Most of them are located in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa regions. The largest number of businesses at one address is recorded in the capital – more than 2 thousand companies.
More than 140 thousand companies are registered at mass registration addresses in Ukraine. These addresses are used by Opendatabot to identify locations where more than 50 different businesses are registered. Checking the address for mass registration will help to avoid fraud and potentially unreliable businessmen.
Follow the information on the page of the Register of places of mass registration of legal entities
The largest number of companies registered at such addresses was recorded in Kyiv – more than 101 thousand, or 71.8% of the total. Kharkiv and Odesa regions are also in the top three, with more than 8 thousand (6.3%) and 5 thousand (4.1%) respectively.
The same regions are also leading in terms of the number of addresses. In Kyiv, companies are massively registered at 815 addresses (63.4%), in Kharkiv and Odesa regions – 105 (8.2%) and 65 (5.1%) respectively.
Most companies are registered at one location in the capital: 12 Melnykova Street. This is the legal address of 2,363 companies, including 1,978 active and 385 inactive.
The registration of a company’s location at the addresses of mass registration can be attributed to its negative characteristics when planning cooperation with such a company, says insolvency receiver Denys Lykhopiok.
“In my practice, I have encountered a frequent phenomenon that the location of a bankrupt company is the place of mass registration.
In particular, such re-registration is most often initiated by managers and business owners who are trying to avoid financial liability on the eve of bankruptcy proceedings. Sometimes, such developments can be planned even from the very beginning of the company’s activities,” comments Denys Lykhopiok, attorney at law, insolvency receiver, member of the Qualification Commission of Insolvency Receivers, bankruptcy specialist.
The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Turkey’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings to “B+” from “B”.
The ratings outlook is “positive,” according to a press release from S&P.
“We expect that following the municipal elections held in the country, the Turkish authorities will continue to fight inflation aggressively through tightening monetary policy and gradual fiscal consolidation,” the agency’s experts say.
S&P predicts a decline in Turkey’s current account deficit over the next two years, along with weakening inflation and slowing dollarization of the economy. At the same time, the agency’s analysts believe that the country’s inflation rate will remain double-digit until early 2028.
The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep the key interest rate at the current level of 50% until the end of 2024, according to S&P.
“We could upgrade Turkey’s rating again if the country’s balance of payments continues to improve, inflation slows, and domestic savings in Turkish lira increase, allowing the country to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves,” the agency said in a press release.
S&P may change the outlook on Turkey’s ratings to stable if pressure on the country’s financial stability or state budget increases, for example, if the lira’s depreciation fails to stop, or if the authorities abandon inflation control measures.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a detailed video analysis of how economic and political life is developing in Turkey, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/SUqOMFI5HbI?si=uEIZZOORj65VElUQ
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), taking into account Russia’s recent terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure, has included in its macroeconomic forecast an average electricity deficit of about 5% in 2024-2025, while estimating electricity imports at $0.8 billion in 2024 and $0.6 billion in 2025.
“If there are no new significant destructions, the NBU estimates that the electricity deficit, even taking into account imports and partial restoration/installation of new generating capacities, will be 5-7% on average in the second to fourth quarters of 2024,” the NBU said in its April inflation report, which was recently released.
This means restrictions on consumption for both households and industry. Due to uneven consumption throughout the day during peak hours, the deficit may reach 25-30% and be higher in energy-deficient regions, the National Bank explained.
“The deficit will persist in 2025 (an average of 7% in the first quarter and 3% by the end of the year),” its experts believe.
According to the report, a significant electricity deficit is likely to occur in the second quarter of 2024 due to a decrease in floods and the need to repair nuclear power units. In the future, the electricity deficit may increase with increased consumption in the summer and during the heating season.
The NBU reminded that the integration of Ukraine’s power system with the European one allows for the import of 1.7 GW of capacity (as authorized by ENTSO-E), which is used to compensate for temporary shortages of generating capacity during peak consumption hours and to balance the power system. However, due to significant fluctuations in consumption, in particular in neighboring countries, the import capacity is likely to be less than the maximum volume. In addition, import coverage is limited due to imbalances in the grid, including low transmission capacity in some regions due to significant damage.
It is pointed out that the risk of increased Russian attacks on energy infrastructure remains high for both production and distribution capacities. In the event of further damage, GDP growth will be lower than in the baseline scenario (3% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025), and price increases will be higher due to higher costs resulting from the use of more expensive energy sources.
“However, the level of readiness of businesses and households for potential electricity outages is higher than in 2022-2023, which will limit the negative impact of the electricity shortage on the economy,” the NBU said.
Oil prices are rising on Monday after the biggest drop since February in the previous week.
The cost of July futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 8:10 a.m. is $83.25 per barrel, which is $0.29 (0.35%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.71 (0.9%) to $82.96 per barrel.
June futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.3 (0.38%) to $78.41 per barrel. As a result of the previous trading, the value of contracts decreased by $0.84 (1.1%) to $78.11 per barrel.
Over the week, Brent fell by 6%, while WTI fell by almost 7%.
Last week’s pressure on the market was exerted by data on the growth of US stocks and signals of declining demand, as well as some easing of fears associated with the possibility of a reduction in oil supplies from the Middle East.
Traders believe that amid a significant decline in prices, OPEC+ countries will continue to limit production. The majority of traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the alliance countries that adhere to the voluntary production curbs will continue the current measures until the end of this year.
Saudi Aramco announced last weekend that it will raise oil prices for Asian buyers in June. The cost of the main grade supplied to Asia, Arab Light, will increase by $0.9 per barrel. As a result, it will cost $2.9 more than a basket of Omani and Dubai crude, Saudi Aramco said in a statement.