Numbers of Ukrainian population by regions as of September 1, 2019
The economic growth of Ukraine in 2020 will be 3%, according to the basic macroeconomic forecast prepared by the analytical department of Alfa-Bank (Kyiv).
“We expect Ukraine’s economy to maintain moderate rate of growth in 2020, adding another 3% after 3.3% in 2019. This would be the fifth year of economic recovery in a row (only in the 2000s, Ukraine did enjoy a longer growth period),” according to the forecast posted on the bank’s website.
“Growing consumer demand should be the major driver for the economy next year. We also expect further expansion in investment, supported by maintained macro-financial stability and declining interest rates. However, economic growth would be limited by global economic cool down, some worsening in terms of trade (that is, the ratio of prices for key exports and imports), limited foreign direct investment, cutbacks in margins of some big sectors, and tighter labor market with regard to demographic challenges,” it says.
“Macro-financial stability, coupled with tight monetary policy, low imported inflation, and limited current needs in upward reviews of administratively regulated prices would facilitate further slowdown in inflation. However, strong growth in wages and consumer demand would exert some upside pressure on prices. We expect the growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow down from current 7.5% to 6.3% at the end of 2020,” according to the document.
The bank said the foreign exchange market will remain stable: the average annual hryvnia to U.S. dollar exchange rate is to be close to the indicators of 2017-2019. The average annual hryvnia exchange rate in 2020 will be UAH 26.65/$1, the bankers stated.
“Economic growth, maintained macro-financial stability, moderate fiscal deficit and declining interest rates would ease the debt burden for the state. According to our estimates, the public debt to GDP ratio will go down from 60.9% in 2018 to 52.7% in 2020,” the bank said.
The total state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in September 2019 increased by 1.26%, or by $1.03 billion, to $82.95 billion, according to data on Finance Ministry’s website.
According to the ministry, the state debt in the national currency decreased by 3.36%, to UAH 1.997 trillion.
In September, direct government debt in U.S. dollars rose by 1.77%, to $72.99 billion (in hryvnias it fell by 2.86%, to UAH 1.758 trillion), in particular external debt decreased by 2.88%, to $38.66 billion.
The state-guaranteed debt last month decreased by 2.36%, to $9.95 billion (in hryvnias decreased by 6.81%, to UAH 239.73 billion), in particular external one fell by 2.72%, to $9.49 billion.
In general, since the beginning of the year, the aggregate public debt of Ukraine increased by 5.91%, or by $4.63 billion, however, in hryvnia equivalent, due to the strengthening of the national currency, it decreased by 6.72%, or by UAH 143.92 billion.
According to the Finance Ministry, the share of liabilities in U.S. dollars of the overall structure of Ukraine’s public debt fell to 39.58% in September, in euros it decreased to 9.93%, in Canadian dollars to 0.18%, in special borrowing rights to 13.46%, in yen to 0.69%, while in hryvnias it increased to 36.15%.
The official hryvnia exchange rate, according to which the Finance Ministry calculates the national debt, strengthened in September to UAH 24.08/$1 compared to UAH 27.688/$1 at the beginning of the year.
Nafta RV LLC, a subsidiary of Slovakia’s Nafta, has won an electronic auction to receive a license for developmet of the Vantazhkivske oil, gas field (Poltava region), according to information on the ProZorro.Sale platform. During the auction held last Wednesday, Nafta RV offered UAH 6.846 million for the license compared with Optima Resource private enterprise, which stopped at the starting price of UAH 6.795 million.
After registering the required documents, Nafta RV will receive a subsurface site for geological exploration and further research and development for a period of 20 years.
According to the materials of the auction, prospective gas resources of category C3 at the Vantazhkivske field were estimated at 3.091 billion cubic meters. It is recommended to drill two exploratory wells with a depth of 5,700 meters and 6,300 meters.
Nafta’s main shareholder is EPH holding of Czech businessman Daniel Křetínský.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky calls on international partners to invest in the development of small towns in the country and emphasizes that the beginning of such a process has been launched in Mariupol.
“Our idea is to start the development from Mariupol. That is why the investment forum is taking place here, in eastern Ukraine. A city once liberated can become truly European,” the president said at a meeting with Vice President of the International Finance Corporation Georgina Baker, World Bank Country Director for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Satu Kahkonen and Regional Manager of the International Finance Corporation in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Jason Pellmar as part of the RE: THINK. Invest in Ukraine Forum in Mariupol, the presidential press service said.
He thanked the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation for their assistance with reform implementation. “You have seen how many bills have already been adopted. We are now starting to implement them,” the president said.
In addition, the head of state thanked the International Finance Corporation for the implementation of the transport project in Mariupol. He expressed hope that similar projects would appear in other cities of Ukraine.
Zelensky said he was ready to protect the investments and called for investing in the development of small settlements. “In particular, we need investments to build new schools, hospitals, roads and bridges,” the president said.
DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS, INVEST, SMALL SETTLEMENTS
Chairman of the National Ecological Council and Head of the Association of Fishermen of Ukraine Oleksandr Chystiakov has said that the condition of the Dnipro River is critical.
“The condition of the Dnipro River is critical, it no longer roars, it groans. The river is simply dying. It all started with the fact that the greatest river was blocked by dams. It lost its own flow and is not able to wash away what gets in there. And along the banks of the Dnipro River there are megacities and chemical plants with their effluents,” he said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on October 22.
Chystiakov said that the problems of the Dnipro River should be addressed, including in the context of the problems of its tributaries.
“More than 10,000 small rivers have disappeared from the map over the years of independence… There is algae bloom, they rivers grow shallow and then disappear,” he added.
So, according to Chystiakov, if we do not address the problems of the Irpin River near Kyiv, it will disappear in five years.
“Regarding the Dnipro River, there are 56 shoals in the Kyiv water area alone, on which you can stand knee-deep in the water,” he said.
In addition, wastewater was identified as one of the problems. According to Chystiakov, more than 2.5 billion cubic meters of it was discharged into the water in 2018 (a third of them is untreated).
“The Dnipro River blooms with every color of the rainbow every year,” Chystiakov said.
In this regard, the public figure proposes that all local councils should bring their legal acts in line with the Water and Land Code.
“It is necessary to introduce a comprehensive program to save the Dnipro River and remove all shore depositions and shoals, as well as other existing threats,” Chystiakov said.
Record-breaking swimmer Mykhailo Romanyshyn proposed creating an association, named “Saving the Dnipro,” in parliament, which would include representatives of different parliamentary factions, to coordinate work with environmentalists and make such efforts more efficient.
“Ecologists, scientists, athletes are calling on lawmakers to create the Saving the Dnipro inter-faction association to coordinate and work out the legislative framework for revitalizing the Dnipro,” added Mykhailo Romanyshyn, a participant in the press conference, the record breaker for the #DniproSwimming (#VplavDnepr and #VplavDnipro), who swam the entire length of the Dnipro River.
Vitaliy Pichura, Doctor of Sciences, Head of the Department of Ecology at Kherson State Agrarian University, called for a comprehensive solution to the ecology of water resources in Ukraine.
“Regarding the revitalization of the Dnipro River, yes, this is our main river, but the Dnipro is fed by hundreds of rivers, streams and rivulets, therefore only a set of laws and actions will allow us to improve the environmental condition of the entire water basin,” he said.
