APS Holding (Prague, the Czech Republic), a large provider of investment and recovery services in Central Europe, jointly with Avistar (Kyiv), which has been operating on the Ukrainian toxic assets market for over nine years, is launching a pilot project – Gefest Group, Avistar Managing Partner Yuri Kostrobiy said at a briefing. According to him, under the Gefest Group pilot project, it is planned to build a service and investment structure with the introduction of a modern IT system throughout the entire cycle of work with toxic debts based on EU standards. Building an efficient service mechanism, procedures for servicing and working with distress assets is the main task of the pilot project, Kostrobiy said.
Director of the Department for Consolidated Sale of Assets of the Deposit Guarantee Fund of Ukraine Taras Yeleiko said at the briefing that APS Holding’s entry into the Ukrainian market is a landmark event for the Ukrainian non-performing loan (NPL) market.
“We are happy that such players as APS enter Ukraine who can move our market to the best global practices and make this movement irreversible,” he said.
The Deposit Guarantee Fund is one of the key players in the NPL market, which manages assets totaling more than EUR 18 billion, which were received as a result of the bankruptcy of more than 90 banks in the period from 2014 to 2018.
The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Oleksandr Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Research will host a National Exit Poll for early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 21. “The consortium of the above-named organizations will conduct a survey on July 21 outside polling stations. The main aim of the project is to provide effective public control over the honesty of the elections,” Democratic Initiatives Foundation said on Thursday.
At the Ukrinform news agency, at 19:45, on July 21 consortium members will release results of their exit poll as of 18:00, and at 22:00 will release updated results with information received as of 20:00.
The field research phase will be carried out by KIIS and the Razumkov Center. The general totality of exit polls comprises voters who voted at polling stations in Ukraine (except for special polling stations — hospitals, prisons, military units, foreign polling stations, and with the exception of the occupied territories). The sample will be representative for Ukraine as a whole and for its four regions (West, Center, East and South). The results of the survey will be presented on a nationwide scale and in the context of the four regions.
The number of polling stations is 300 (150 for each sociological company). The sample size is about 13,000 respondents (depending on voter turnout). The number of respondents at each site is approximately 43 respondents on average. Interviewers will have special badges with the National Exit Poll symbols.
The statistical error of the sample, taking into account the design effect does not exceed 1.3%, but there are still errors that depend on various factors. Based on the experience of previous exit polls conducted using the same methodology, sociologists suggest that the sampling error will not exceed 2.5% for leaders and will be within 0.5-1% for other parties.
The National Exit Poll at the parliamentary elections-2019 is carried out with the financial support from United States Agency for International Development (USAID), EU Representation in Ukraine, the Kyiv-based International Renaissance Foundation and Canadian Embassy in Ukraine.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reviewed downwards the forecast for export of Ukrainian wheat in 2019/20 agricultural year (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes, to 19 million tonnes, and harvest – by 1 million tonnes, to 29 million tonnes, according to a July report of the USDA posted on its website. According to the report, compared with the June report, the forecast for the export of barley in 2019/20 agri-year was also lowered to 4.2 million tonnes (by 0.3 million tonnes) due to the deterioration of the forecast for the production of this crop to 8.5 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tons).
At the same time, the forecast for the export of corn has been increased to 28 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes) with improving the forecast of the corn harvest to 34 million tonnes (by 1 million tonnes).
Thus, in general, the grain harvest forecast for 2019/20 agri-year in Ukraine has been reduced to 72.55 million tonnes (by 0.5 million tonnes compared with the June forecast), exports increased to 51.39 million tonnes (by 0.2 million tonnes).
As reported, Ukraine’s Agricultural Policy and Food Ministry predicts an increase in the yield of grain in 2019 to 70.8 million tonnes with a gross harvest of grain in the 2018/19 agricultural year at the level of 70.1 million tonnes.
Real GDP in Ukraine in 2019 would grow by 3.2% under the influence of higher internal demand (both consumer and investment) than it had been projected, according to the updated Dragon Capital’s forecast. Earlier Dragon Capital assessed growth of the Ukrainian economy this year at 2.5%.
According to the forecast, the external environment in the first half of the year was better for Ukraine than expected, in particular, because of the sharp favorable change in prices for iron ore and gas.
Despite the fact that in the second half of the year, Dragon Capital expects deterioration in trade, the updated annualized forecasts are still better than they were.
The estimate of the increase in real GDP in 2020 remained the same – 2.8%, since the positive impact of higher demand will be offset by a reduction in the transit of Russian gas, Dragon Capital said in the document. Half a year ago, analysts at Dragon Capital were expecting a 20% drop in transit, but now they predict a 50% fall.
The authors of the report reminded that on January 1, 2020, the 10-year transit contract between Naftogaz Ukrainy and Russia’s Gazprom will expire. The latter is strenuously promoting the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, the alternative projects to the Ukrainian transit, while the trilateral meetings on the transit issue involving Ukraine, the European Union (EU) and Russia have so far been fruitless.
The analysts said that they revised their forecast on expectations that Ukraine will sign a new extended fund facility with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the fourth quarter of 2019 for $6-8 billion after the formation of a new government following the parliamentary elections to be held on July 21.
“Although the current government is successfully coping with growing payments on foreign debt, we still believe that the need for fiscal financing will remain high in the coming year, supporting Ukraine’s need to have a working program with the IMF,” the experts said.
In U.S. dollar terms, the nominal GDP forecast for the current year has been improved from $143 billion to $150 billion, for 2020 – from $148 billion to $161 billion.
Taking into account the unexpectedly strong dynamics of January-May 2019, the analysts at Dragon Capital also significantly improved the forecast for the current account deficit – by 1 percentage point (p.p.), to 2.7% of GDP ($4 billion), explaining this by slower repatriation of dividends and such an improvement in terms of trade, which compensates for the increase in consumer and investment imports.
According to the updated macroeconomic forecast, the current account deficit in 2020 will increase to 3.2% of GDP ($5.1 billion) due to less favorable terms of trade and reduction in gas transit, which, however, is noticeably better than the previous estimate of 3.9%.
As for the hryvnia exchange rate, the investment company experts point to the absence of risks associated with fundamental factors. According to their estimates, the exchange rate will increasingly depend on the mood. In particular, they noted a sharp increase in the inflow of nonresidents (a rise of $1.8 billion) in the first half of 2019. The Dragon Capital analysts said that a further inflow of foreign investors will support the hryvnia in the second half of 2019, reducing the influence of the seasonality factor.
In the updated forecast, the hryvnia rate at the end of 2019 has been improved to UAH 27.50/$1 from UAH 29.70/$ 1 (a rise of 0.7% year-over-year), and at the end of 2020 – UAH 28.50/$1 from UAH 31/$1. The expected weakening next year Dragon Capital explains, first of all, by a decrease in gas transit income and a smaller inflow of foreign investment in hryvnia-pegged government securities.
As for inflation, its forecast for this year is worsened from 7.3% to 7.8% compared with 6.3%, so far expected by the National Bank. However, in 2020, as expected in Dragon Capital, inflation will drop to 6%, which is better than the company’s previous forecast of 6.2%.
The analysts said that the National Bank will resume the easing policy and will lower the key policy rate by 150 basis points this year and 500 basis points in 2020, to a total of up to 11.0% per annum.
Dragon Capital said that the main risk for the forecast is the absence or longer delay of the IMF program, on the other hand, pointing to additional growth potential in the event of a possible acceleration of structural reforms.
According to the analysts of the company, relations with Russia are still an important factor in influencing the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine, as well as the country’s dependence on global commodity prices and the situation in the international loan market.
Official rates of banking metals from national bank as of july 12
One troy ounce=31.10 grams
Volyn West Wind 1, 2, 3 LLC (Volyn region) plans to build two wind farms with a capacity of 63 MW each and a wind farm with a capacity of 72 MW, according to information on the website of the environment assessment register.
Under the project it is planned to install 44 turbines with a capacity of up to 4.5 MW each. The height of the tower will be up to 125 meters. The area required for placing one turbine is 0.35 ha.
In addition, it is planned to build a 110 kV/35 kV substation and a 110 kV/35 kV power line.
The tentative useful life of the wind farms is 20 years.
According to the unified public register of companies, Volyn West Wind 1, 2, 3 LLC belongs to UDP Renewables of Vasyl Khmelnytsky and UDP Renewables Managing Partner Serhiy Yevtushenko.
As reported, UDP Renewables together with Spain’s Acciona Energia Global intends to build two solar power plants in Odesa region with a capacity of almost 44 MW by the end of 2019. Total investment in projects is EUR 30.6 million.
