The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
According to Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies. Ella Libanova, depopulation is an inevitable scenario for Ukraine. A labor shortage is absolutely inevitable.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased.
Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.
According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this is compensated for by migration.According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this can be compensated for by migration.
Economic recovery
Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP), after declining by 10.5% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, started growing in the second and third quarters.
“At the same time, the World Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024, which is 1.5 percentage points (p.p.) and 0.5 p.p. higher than the June estimates, respectively,” said Maksim Urakin.
The key risk for our economy remains a longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2023 increased by 3.2 times compared to the same period in 2022 – to $19.402 billion from $6.026 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $19 billion higher than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries. “, emphasized Urakin, PhD in Economics.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
According to the expert, the main factors that characterize the state of the Ukrainian economy are public debt, international reserves and inflation.
“According to the calculations made during the preparation of the draft state budget, the projected amount of public debt calculated in national currency will amount to UAH 8,183,862.1 million and will be 104.6% of GDP. The state-guaranteed debt will amount to UAH 476,671.9 million and will be 6.1% of GDP,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the expert, the main source of funding for Ukraine’s budget is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed through taxes and fees, while the other half is financed through international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
“Ukraine’s international reserves as of October 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $39 billion 708.2 million,” the analyst added.
As for inflation, it continues to decline.
“Consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 0.5% in September 2023 after a decline of 1.4% in August and 0.6% in July, according to the State Statistics Service. At the same time, inflation was recorded at 1.9% in September 2022, so in annual terms in September 2023 it decreased to 7.1% from 8.6% in August and 11.3% in July,” Urakin said.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to require close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
High levels of stress caused by the war can provoke bouts of overeating and endocrine disorders, says Anastasia Sokolova, a dietitian and endocrinologist at the Leleka Medical Center.
“The war in Ukraine prolongs and increases the level of stress and its negative impact on body weight. According to statistical forecasts, the number of people with diagnosed anxiety-depressive disorder and bouts of overeating against this background, and, consequently, possible endocrine disorders, is constantly growing. There are no exact figures yet, but stress levels are still high. Therefore, the issue of overweight or obesity on the background of prolonged stress is an extremely diverse and large problem in modern Ukraine, which cannot yet be fully resolved, because controlling hormone levels is not enough,” she said.
According to Sokolova, this problem requires a comprehensive approach.
“It is necessary to approach the problem in a comprehensive manner: to deal with the root cause of the condition – a prolonged feeling of stress – with a psychotherapist, to support the work of endocrine organs – with an endocrinologist, and to follow recommendations for establishing a healthy lifestyle – with a nutritionist,” the expert noted.
At the same time, she noted that stress is a normal and vital reaction of the body to negative environmental or internal factors.
“Evolutionarily, the reaction to stress was acute and short-lived: to escape from a predator and quickly run to a safe cave. Nowadays, our lives are full of chronic stress, which our body is not physiologically ready for. In contrast to the necessary beneficial effects of short-term stress, long-term and chronic stress can lead to hormonal dysfunction, which can affect health and lead to the development of various diseases, including obesity. “The ‘stress response’ or ‘reactive stress response’ is realized precisely through an increase in stress hormones in the adrenal glands, which force all body systems to work harder to save themselves,” she explained.
In particular, adrenaline increases the heart rate, raises blood pressure, and increases the body’s readiness for physical activity. This makes it possible to respond more quickly to a stressful stimulus. Norepinephrine increases attention, improves concentration and readiness for action, and plays an important role in preparing to fight or flee during stressful situations.
Cortisol is the main hormone that regulates the long-term stress response, increases blood glucose levels, increases fat metabolism, prepares muscles for action, and supports the function of the immune system. At the same time, elevated levels of cortisol in the body over a long period of time can have negative health consequences, including increased appetite and weight gain.
“During prolonged stress, it is important to monitor your health in order to respond in a timely manner and prevent chronic conditions. Controlling all of the above stress hormones is impractical because, unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to reduce their levels with medication,” Sokolova emphasized.
She noted that during prolonged stress, against the background of prolonged high cortisol levels, the level of other hormones will increase, which can already affect body weight, appetite, and cause chronic diseases and pathological conditions, such as diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, obesity, and hyperandrogenism. Therefore, the level of these hormones should be monitored.
In particular, we are talking about thyroid hormones, which affect the immune system, which in turn can lead to various thyroid disorders, and reduced thyroid function contributes to weight gain. In addition, it is necessary to control the level of sex hormones, which can increase testosterone levels and decrease estrogen levels, leading to reproductive system disorders (in case of prolonged stress) and weight gain. Insulin levels should also be monitored, as high levels of insulin over a long period of time can impair cellular sensitivity to it, which affects sugar levels, increases appetite, disrupts eating habits, and can lead to weight gain.
On the other hand, as the expert emphasized, it has been proven that constant stress can lead to anxiety disorders: generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), clinical depression, or panic attacks. And this can stimulate overeating, “storing” negative emotions, and the desire to improve mood with high-carbohydrate and sugar-rich foods. The process of overeating can turn into binge eating disorder (BED), which is a psychological disorder associated with excessive food consumption in a short period of time, usually without control over consumption, and guilt afterwards. At the same time, hormone levels remain within normal limits.
On November 18-19, the national squash competition “Ukrainian Squash Cup 2023” took place on the courts of the capital’s Sport Life fitness club in Teremky.
Representatives from Kharkiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Odesa, Kherson, and Lviv came to Kyiv. In total, more than 130 athletes took part in the competition, which is an absolute record for the number of players among national squash tournaments held under the auspices of the Ukrainian Squash Federation. The tournament was attended by 16 women, 74 men and 42 juniors.
Anastasia Kostiukova and Ruslan Sorochinsky became the champions in the adult categories, defeating Anastasia Krykun and Nikita Panov in the final matches.
List of winners of the Ukrainian Squash Cup 2023 tournament:
Children under 9 years old:
1st place Tomenchuk David
2nd place Kostiukov Artem
3rd place Zakharchenko Danylo
Girls under 11 years old:
1st place Orlenko Alexandra
2nd place Krasnokutska Daria
3rd place Lysenko Polina
Boys under 11 years old:
1st place Hutsaylyuk Andriy
2nd place Schneider Artem
3rd place Matyukhov Yegor
Girls under 13 years old:
1st place Syvoplias Victoria
2nd place Daria Gerya
3rd place Kukushkina Maria
Boys under 13 years old
1st place Doroshenko Gleb
2nd place Tomenchuk Mykyta
3rd place Tymoshchuk Ivan
Boys under 15 years old:
1 place Shcherbakov Yegor
2nd place Roman Shkarupylo
3rd place Klymenko Mykyta
WOMEN:
1st place Kostyukova Anastasia
2nd place Krykun Anastasia
3rd place Vlasenko Daria
MEN:
1st place Sorochinsky Ruslan
2nd place Panov Nikita
3rd place Petrovych Ruslan
The honorary guests of the Ukrainian Squash Cup were acting Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine Matviy Bidnyi, world judo champion, chairman of the NOC of Ukraine’s athletes commission Georgiy Zantaraya, two-time Olympic champion in canoeing Yuriy Cheban, two-time NBA champion with the Los Angeles Lakers Stanislav Medvedenko.
The main organizer of the tournament is the NGO Squash Federation of Ukraine, the main fitness partner of the event is the Sport Life fitness club network, and the main media partner of the tournament is Interfax-Ukraine, Experts club analytical center, prize partners – REIMA, TECNIFIBRE and EYE, medical partner of the tournament – ADONIS clinic network, tournament water – KRAINA, tournament hotel – FAVOR, awarding partner – SHEF restaurant. Thermopab and Lukashuk Dental Clinic were also partners of the tournament.
ADONIS, EXPERTS CLUB, kostiukova, sorochinsky, squash cup, SQUASH FEDERATION
In January-October 2023, Ukrgasvydobuvannya JSC paid UAH 19.85 billion in rent payments, the company’s press service reports.
According to the press service, UAH 992.26 million, or 5%, of this amount went to the budgets of the local and regional levels where the company operates.
From January to October 2023, the budgets of Kharkiv and Poltava regions received the largest deductions – UAH 484.96 million and UAH 415.32 million, respectively.
As reported, in 2023, Ukrgasvydobuvannya set a goal to increase natural gas production by 1 bcm to 13.5 bcm. In 2022, UGV produced 12.5 bcm of natural gas (commercial), which is 3% less than in 2021.
NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine owns 100% of Ukrgasvydobuvannya shares.
Astarta Agro Holding, the largest sugar producer in Ukraine, paid UAH 1.84 billion in taxes and fees to the budgets of all levels in January-October 2023, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
According to the report, more than UAH 1.08 billion of this amount went to local budgets of territorial communities in Poltava, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions. The agricultural holding transferred over UAH 753 million to the state budget.
“During the full-scale war alone, Astarta transferred over UAH 3.46 billion to the budgets of all levels. We are increasing these volumes from year to year because we are convinced that our taxes support both the budget and the people of Ukraine. This is especially true now, when the lion’s share of budget expenditures is spent on improving the country’s defense capabilities. This is our conscious choice, and I urge all Ukrainian businesses, without exception, to make this decision and pay taxes in good faith under any circumstances,” said Astarta’s founder and CEO Viktor Ivanchyk.
According to the agricultural holding, Astarta, together with Ukrainian and international partners, also continues to implement social initiatives within the Common Help Ukraine humanitarian project. The estimated value of charitable contributions and humanitarian aid provided by the project already exceeds UAH 809 million, of which UAH 56 million was allocated to the development of regional entrepreneurship in the communities where the agricultural holding operates.
“Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding company operating in eight regions of Ukraine. It includes six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220 thousand hectares and dairy farms with 22 thousand cattle, an oil extraction plant in Globyno (Poltava region), seven elevators and a biogas complex.
In the third quarter of 2023, the agricultural holding earned EUR1.24 million in net profit, down 27.7 times compared to the same period in 2022. Astarta’s revenue decreased by 14.4% to EUR104.75 million, gross profit by 2.7 times to EUR26.96 million, operating profit by 7.6 times to EUR6.79 million, and EBITDA by 42.7% to EUR97.25 million.
Due to significantly better performance in the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year, in the first nine months of 2023, net profit decreased by 9.8% to EUR 55.97 million, while revenue increased by 14.8% to EUR 392.00 million. The company’s gross profit increased by 3.0% to EUR 151.91 million, while operating profit decreased by 15.9% to EUR 79.91 million and EBITDA by 10.8% to EUR 116.63 million.