Starting from February 1, due to the intrusion of cold Arctic air from the north of Europe and additional cooling in the high pressure field, in Ukraine, except for Transcarpathia and southern part, at night, the temperature is expected to drop to 20-27º frost, in the northern and eastern regions in some places up to emergency frost -30º, reports Ukrhydrometcenter.
“Due to the intrusion of cold arctic air from the north of Europe and additional cooling in the high pressure field with clear weather at night on February 1-3 in Ukraine, except for Transcarpathia and the southern part, the temperature drop to 20-27º frost, in Rivne, Zhitomir, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions in places to extreme frost – minus 30º (III level of danger, red). The temperature in the afternoon 15-22º frost”, – stated in the message.
Forecasters expect a gradual weakening of frost on February 4-5, starting from the west and south-west.
Weather conditions will lead to complications in the work of energy, utility companies and vital activities of the population; to the disruption of road, rail and electric transport. Information will be clarified by daily weather forecasts.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
In 2025, Ukraine imported 12.85 thousand tons of cut flowers, which is 8.5% more than in 2024 (11.84 thousand tons), according to the State Customs Service.
According to the published statistics, in monetary terms, the volume of imports last year increased by 14.2% to $64.48 million, compared to $56.46 million a year ago.
The Netherlands remains the undisputed leader in supplies, providing almost three-quarters of the Ukrainian market, or 72.4% of supplies in monetary terms, or $46.68 million. Ecuador (12.8%, or $8.25 million) and Kenya (6.2%, or $4.00 million) also lead in flower supplies to Ukraine. In 2024, this trio remained the same with similar shares of supplies: the Netherlands (71.1%), Ecuador (13.5%), and Kenya (5.8%).
Flower exports from Ukraine in 2025 remained symbolic, amounting to only $184,000 at the end of the year, which is 12.5% less than in 2024 ($210,000). The main buyers of Ukrainian flowers were Moldova (59% or $108,600), Georgia (23% or $42,300), and Lithuania (10% or $18,400). A year ago, the composition of the top three buyers was slightly different: Moldova was also the leader (58% or $121,800), but it was followed by Poland (17% or $35,700) and Lithuania (12% or $25,200).
As reported, in 2021, Ukraine introduced a special three-year duty on imports of cut fresh roses, regardless of the country of origin and export. The duty rate in the first year of its application was 56%, in the second — 44.8%, and in the third — 35.84%.
Based on the results of the duty’s impact provided by the Ministry of Economy, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade (ICIT) concluded in 2025 that the application of special measures had a positive effect on the activities of domestic producers, but did not completely eliminate the consequences of the damage caused to them. Recommendations to extend the duty were forwarded to the ministry.
Nova Poshta, the leader in express delivery in Ukraine and part of the NOVA group, plans to develop cashback in its “Bonus Delivery” loyalty program in 2026, which can be used to reduce the cost of delivery or even send parcels for free, according to Yevgen Krechetovich, head of customer development.
According to him, there are also plans to increase customer awareness and use of the program by 50% and focus on launching new gamified mechanics.
Nova Poshta noted that the number of participants in the program already exceeds 10 million, and more than 500 businesses have joined the partner network.
It is noted that every month, the company’s users use more than 500,000 promo codes from program partners.
“A separate area of development has been the connection of offline partners at the request of the customers themselves. Gas stations, medical laboratories, restaurants, cinemas, and other services of daily demand have joined the program,” Nova Poshta noted.
As reported, in 2025, Nova Poshta increased its revenue by 21% compared to 2024, to more than UAH 54 billion, and its profit amounted to UAH 2.6 billion compared to UAH 2.5 billion a year earlier. The number of parcels and cargo delivered in 2025 increased by 7.4% – from 486 million to 522 million, including international deliveries – by 52.6%, from 19 million to 29 million.
The main activity of Nova Poshta is express delivery of documents, parcels, and palletized large-sized cargo. Its ultimate beneficial owners are Volodymyr Poperechnyuk and Vyacheslav Klimov.
The average pension in Ukraine is currently UAH 6,544, according to the Pension Fund of Ukraine. The payment increased by 13% over the year. Every fifth Ukrainian pensioner receives an average pension of about 4,500 UAH. 63,000 pensioners receive payments below the subsistence level, and 261,000 receive payments at the level of UAH 2,361. In total, there are more than 10.1 million pensioners in Ukraine this year, and almost 73% of them receive an old-age pension.
There are currently 10.17 million pensioners in Ukraine. The vast majority – 73% of pensioners – receive old-age payments: 7.4 million Ukrainians. Another 1.5 million citizens (15%) live on a disability pension, about 700,000 or 7% receive a survivor’s benefit, and 5% or 500,000 have a long service pension. Social pensions and lifetime pensions for judges make up less than 1%.
The average pension in Ukraine is currently UAH 6,544. The payment increased by 13% over the year. However, not everyone has such pensions: more than a third of pensioners receive about UAH 3,250. It is worth noting that the share of such pensioners decreased from 44% to 35% over the year.
Another 15% of pensioners – more than 1.5 million people – receive payments of more than UAH 10,000, and the average pension in this group reaches UAH 16,000. Another 30% of Ukrainians on pensions live on an average of UAH 6,860, and one in five receives about UAH 4.5 thousand per month.
At the same time, 63 thousand pensioners receive a pension below the subsistence level, and 261 thousand Ukrainians live on this minimum: UAH 2,361.
Most pensioners live in Dnipropetrovs’k region – 867 thousand, followed by Kyiv (746 thousand), Kharkiv (687 thousand) and Lviv (665 thousand) regions. The lowest number of pensioners is registered in Kherson (202 thousand) and Chernivtsi (203 thousand) regions.
The amount of payments also differs: the highest average pensions are traditionally in the capital – almost UAH 9 thousand, the lowest – in Ternopil region: about UAH 5 thousand. Although pensions grew by 13% across the country, in some regions the growth was much more significant, such as Rivne (+24%) and Volyn (+20%).
The majority of pensioners – over 82% – receive payments through banks, most often through PrivatBank and Oschadbank. At the same time, pensions are not the only source of income for many: one in four pensioners in Ukraine continues to work.
There are 2.8 million such people, and their average pension is UAH 7,160. As of January 28, UAH 3,250 is about 63 euros at the NBU exchange rate.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/pensions-2025-12
Cucumber exports from Ukraine grew by 19.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 3.76 thousand tons, according to statistics from the State Customs Service.
Poland (54.5% of exports in monetary terms), Estonia (36.4%), and Moldova (7.5%) were the most active buyers of Ukrainian cucumbers in 2025.
A year earlier, the top three were the same, but with a different distribution of shares: Estonia (50.6%), Poland (32.6%), and Moldova (9.3%).
