Change in prices of food raw materials from Ukraine (forecast up to 2025), %
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Kovalska Group, which manufactured the bridge beams for the Degtyarivsky overpass, is ready for any inspection, said the group’s CEO, Serhiy Pylypenko.
As reported, on September 30, RDS Group of Companies was installing girders of the span on Oleksandr Dovzhenko Street in Kyiv by order of Kyivavtodor as part of the reconstruction of the Degtyarivskyi overpass. During the installation of the 7th girder in the design position, it lost its stability and led to the fall of the other 6 girders of the span structure. Kovalska ICG manufactured the bridge girders by order of the RDS Group as part of this project.
“We are ready for any inspection and will do our best to ensure that the construction of the overpass is completed no later than the scheduled date,” Pylypenko commented on the situation on Facebook on Sunday evening.
He said that the BM-36 bridge beams were manufactured in accordance with the design documentation and certified; each structure received a quality document approved by the Independent Bridge Inspectorate of Ukraine.
“These beams in their design position are capable of withstanding a load of 90 tons, which is 30% more than the design load, as proven by the protocols for studying the physical and mechanical properties of the structure. All the beams were loaded and delivered to the construction site, and the contractor accepted the products. The entire process of loading and delivery of the beams was documented. The collapse incident occurred during the installation of the seventh girder, when six were already in the design position,” Pylypenko said.
According to him, the available inspection data and evidence indicate that the problem arose during the installation of the beam, which for unknown reasons lost its design position, knocking down neighboring ones during the process. The choice of the installation method is determined by the contractor, in this case RDS, based on the project design, which clearly defines the type of mechanisms, lifting and installation technology with accompanying calculations.
He reminded that Kovalska Group has been producing reinforced concrete structures, including prestressed bridge beams, for decades.
“Thousands of buildings and infrastructure facilities, including bridges and overpasses, across the country are supported by Kovalska reinforced concrete. The quality and reliability of structures is the highest priority in our business. We have no doubts about the strength of the concrete, the implementation of reinforcement in accordance with the design and compliance with production technology,” he said.
Pylypenko emphasized that the company is ready for any inspections.
Oil prices are slightly rising in trading on Monday.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. on Monday is $92.32 per barrel, which is $0.12 (0.13%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts fell by $0.9 (1%) to $92.2 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.14 (0.15%) to $90.93 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.92 (1%) to $90.79 per barrel.
Concerns about a potential supply shortage in the market supported oil prices in September. Many analysts are still confident that prices will continue to move up to $100 per barrel, Market Watch notes.
Brent rose by 9.7% last month and by 27.3% in the third quarter, while WTI rose by 8.6% and 28.5%, respectively.
“The impetus for price growth, driven by fears of a supply shortage in the market, had exhausted itself by the end of last week,” said Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari. – “Now we are likely to see a consolidation phase until new market drivers emerge.
This week (October 2-5), the 27th ADIPEC 2023 International Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference will be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE), which may give new signals about what to expect in the oil market in the near future. Among the speakers at the conference are OPEC Secretary General Haisam al-Ghais and UAE Energy Minister Suheil al-Mazroui.
The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Speaking about the demographic factor in the development of the Ukrainian economy, Maksym Urakin cited the data previously announced by the Director of the Ptukha Ella Libanova Institute for Demography and Social Studies. Ella Libanova, depopulation is an inevitable scenario for Ukraine. A labor shortage is absolutely inevitable.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased. Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.
According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this can be offset by migration.
Economic recovery
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product grew by 19.5% in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter of 2022.
“According to the State Statistics Service’s preliminary estimate, compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), GDP in the second quarter of this year grew by 0.8%,” said Maksym Urakin.
The key risk for our economy remains the longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksym Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2023 tripled compared to the same period in 2022, to $13.8 billion from $4.315 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $14 billion higher than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries,” said Urakin, PhD in Economics.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
However, according to the expert, no less important aspects of the economy are public debt, international reserves, and inflation.
“In July 2023, Ukraine’s total public debt increased by 3.1% to a new all-time high: by $4 billion in dollar terms, to $132.92 billion. In its inflation report at the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine expects the public debt to grow from 78.4% of GDP to 84.6% of GDP this year, to 96.6% of GDP next year, and to 98.2% of GDP in 2025,” said Maksym Urakin.
According to the expert, the main source of funding for Ukraine’s budget is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed through taxes and fees, while the other half is financed through international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
“Ukraine’s international reserves declined in August and amounted to $40.3 billion as of September 1, 2023,” the analyst added.
As for inflation, it showed a slowdown.
“In August 2023, inflation in Ukraine decreased by 1.4% after a 0.6% decline in July and a 0.8% increase in June. In 2022, the annualized inflation rate was almost 27%,” Urakin said.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to be complex and multifaceted, requiring close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
More than 65% of Ukrainians surveyed cannot recall a single brand of domestically produced wine. This is evidenced by the results of a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Kyiv-based analytical center Experts Club.
Among the domestic wine brands most frequently mentioned by Ukrainians are Koblevo, Shabo, Villa Krym, Bolgrad, Chizay, Kolonist, Inkerman, Oreanda and others. Also, only 30% of respondents have tasted Ukrainian-made craft wine at least once in their lives, and 17% do not know what craft winemaking is.
On the other hand, 54% of respondents would prefer Ukrainian wine if they had to choose a bottle for a visit or a party. At the same time, 47% of respondents prefer Ukrainian alcohol in general, while 27% prefer imported alcohol, and 27% are undecided.
In addition, the survey showed that 30% of citizens do not drink alcohol at all, 28% drink alcohol once a month or less, and 16% drink no more than once a week.
“In wine-growing countries, people are very patriotic about their own products, but in Ukraine, for some reason, sommeliers would rather recommend a foreign product than Ukrainian ones, even though we have quite high-quality craft wines. Therefore, it is necessary to change the worldview and popularize our own production so that the word Ukrainian is synonymous with quality,” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of Active Group.
In turn, Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, emphasized the importance of Ukrainian wine in new markets.
“Increasing export volumes is also a good information occasion that will make Ukrainian wine more popular among our consumers. This can be achieved through obtaining international certificates confirming the high quality of Ukrainian wine, as well as through cooperation with well-known winemakers from other countries to improve the skills of Ukrainian winemakers. An example of such cooperation is the assistance to Ukrainian winemaking from the world-famous representative of this industry, Ricardo Fernandez Nunez, owner of the international wine group Vinos de la Luz,” said Urakin.
Volodymyr Pechko, Chairman of the Association of Gardeners, Winegrowers and Winemakers of Ukraine (UKRSADVINPROM), noted that the creation and presentation of new unique varieties and improvement of production technologies could be important factors that will improve the image of Ukrainian craft wine among consumers.
“Ukrainian wineries are increasingly implementing modern wine production technologies. This can be a good reason to hold public events and popularize this product. In particular, UkrSadVinProm has stepped up the use of the latest technologies in the field of planting, processing, cleaning, storage and transportation of wine and wine materials to ensure that Ukrainian fruits and berries meet international quality standards,” said Pechko.
The survey was conducted in July 2023 among Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older by self-administered questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel.
About 1 thousand respondents – citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older – took part in the survey, which was conducted online in the SunFlower Sociology panel. The survey program was developed jointly by Experts Club and Active group.
Three bulk carriers with agricultural products and iron ore have left the ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, and five new vessels are heading to the ports for loading, said Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Ministry of Reconstruction Oleksandr Kubrakov.
“Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA (flags of Liberia and Palau) exported more than 127 thousand tons of Ukrainian agricultural products and iron ore,” he wrote on Facebook on Sunday.
According to the Deputy Prime Minister, 5 new vessels are being loaded at the ports of Greater Odesa: bulk carriers OLGA, IDA, DANNY BOY, FORZA DORIA, NEW LEGACY export almost 120 thousand tons of Ukrainian grain to Africa and Europe.
