Benchmark oil prices continue to decline on Thursday morning, showing negative dynamics for the third consecutive session, despite data on the reduction of fuel stocks in the United States.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:09 a.m. is $92.86 per barrel, which is $0.67 (0.72%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Wednesday, these contracts fell by $0.81 (0.9%) to $93.53 per barrel.
Quotations for November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.68 (0.76%) to $88.98 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $0.82 (0.9%) to $89.66 per barrel.
Commercial oil inventories in the United States last week decreased by 2.14 million barrels, according to the weekly report of the country’s Energy Ministry. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a decline of 1.7 million barrels.
Meanwhile, gasoline stocks fell by 831 thousand barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 2.87 million barrels. Experts expected an increase in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 1.05 million barrels.
Oil reserves at the Cushing terminal fell by 2.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was replenished by 600 thousand barrels.
“We do believe that some consolidation is warranted before the next upside move,” Tariq Zaheer, managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch.
With Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting oil production by the end of the year, it is only a matter of time before Brent prices rise to $100 per barrel, he added.
According to Zaheer, “the rise in oil prices may be hindered by high oil prices, as they will put pressure on demand.”
Key indicators of state budget (monthly), UAH bln
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Ukrainian ports on the Danube are now trading mainly in soybeans as the most marginal crop. Despite the constant decline in prices from exporters and local processors, soybeans are profitable for traders and farmers, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“Soybeans are actively contracted for October. There is a huge difference between the prices of Ukrainian soybeans and beans from Argentina, the US and Brazil: domestic soybeans are cheaper by 80-100 USD/t. Exporters, including Turkish and Egyptian ones, take advantage of this. However, Ukrainian traders are ready to keep prices low, i.e., they are “collapsing” the market for themselves. For traders, this is a supermarket culture, which is how they make money today,” the analysts said.
According to the report, even at low prices, soybeans bring profits to producers through any sales channels: sales to local processing plants, exports to the EU, and deliveries to small ports.
“In the next two weeks, the purchase prices of processing plants may drop to 12.5-13 thousand UAH/t, and at the Danube ports – to the conditional level of 340 USD/t. At the same time, the supply of soybeans will not decrease,” the UGA forecasts.
Demand for lithium, which is used to produce electric vehicle batteries, is likely to grow in the coming years, supporting prices that have fallen significantly in recent years, Market Watch reports, citing experts.
“Currently, the world does not produce enough lithium hydroxide to meet the demand driven by the growing popularity of electric vehicles,” said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer of Piedmont Lithium Inc. Austin Devaney.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of electric vehicles in total global vehicle sales last year was 14%. It more than tripled from 4% in 2020. In 2023, global sales of electric vehicles are expected to grow by 35% compared to the previous year.
Fundamental factors suggest that the global electric vehicle market will continue to grow, says Devani.
Meanwhile, the average price of lithium-ion batteries fell by 8.7% in August, falling below $100 per kWh for the first time since August 2021, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The price reached $98.1 kWh on September 6, which is 33% lower than the peak recorded in March last year – $146.4 kWh.
The global lithium surplus has increased this year compared to last, but S&P Global Commodity Insights expects it to decline over the next three years.
According to S&P Global Commodity’s forecast, this year’s market supply will amount to 990.065 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, while demand will be 928.717 thousand tons. As a result, the surplus of lithium will reach 61,348 thousand tons compared to 10,061 thousand tons in 2022.
In 2024, the oversupply will decrease to 43 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, in 2025 – to 11 thousand tons, in 2026 – to 3 thousand tons, and in 2027 a deficit of 8 thousand tons will be recorded, according to S&P Global Commodity.
After 2027, demand for lithium will exceed supply, Devani said, citing Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts.
“We believe that the expected lithium shortage requires the US to increase production capacity and reduce dependence on other countries,” the expert says. The bulk of lithium raw materials used in the US are mined in Australia and South America, with 80% of these raw materials being processed in China, Devani said.
According to him, the total amount of announced investments in battery production capacity in the United States over the past two years amounted to approximately $80 billion. In order for these capacities to be utilized, the annual supply of lithium hydroxide in the United States should reach 715 thousand tons by 2030, which is more than 40 times higher than the volume currently produced in the country (approximately 17 thousand tons).
Devaney noted that his company plans to produce about 60 thousand tons of lithium hydroxide per year in the long term, which is expected to be enough for about 1.2 million electric vehicles per year.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is considering providing Ukraine with EUR220 million for infrastructure restoration, including road and bridge repairs, the State Agency for Infrastructure Restoration and Development of Ukraine has reported.
According to a Facebook post on Wednesday, the possibility of financing reconstruction projects and the progress of their implementation were discussed with EIB representatives by the agency’s head Mustafa Nayyem and head of the project management team Vadym Nozdria.
As a reminder, in June 2023, the EIB allocated EUR 50 million of EU grant funds under the NIP platform for modular bridges for the regions of Ukraine most affected by the Russian invasion.
About 98% of Europeans breathe extremely harmful polluted air that causes 400,000 early deaths annually, The Guardian reported on Wednesday.
The newspaper, referring to information collected by satellites and monitoring stations, claims that 98% of Europeans live in areas where the content of extremely harmful microparticles in the air exceeds the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). At the same time, almost two-thirds of citizens live in areas where the limit set by the WHO is almost twice as high.
The worst situation is observed in North Macedonia, where almost two-thirds of the population live in areas where the content of harmful PM2.5 particles exceeds the WHO standard by more than four times. In some areas, including the capital city of Skopje, this standard is exceeded by up to six times.
In general, the situation in Eastern Europe is much worse than in its western parts. The exception is Italy, where the number of microparticles in the north of the country is also almost four times higher than the norm.
Experts say that air pollution causes about 400,000 early deaths in Europe every year. If air quality met WHO standards, more than 200,000 of these people could be saved.
PM2.5 particles are microparticles that are released into the air as a result of fossil fuel combustion. They can enter the bloodstream through the lungs and affect the functioning of almost every organ in the body. These particles can be linked to a wide range of diseases, including diabetes and cancer. According to current WHO recommendations, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 particles should not exceed 5 micrograms per 1 cubic meter.
