Speaking at the Dubrovnik Forum on Saturday, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković assured of continued support for Ukraine and recalled the assistance already provided to Kyiv in various areas.
In his speech, Plenković pointed to the negative consequences for Europe and the world of the Covid-19 pandemic, “prolonged by Russian aggression against Ukraine, which has devalued the importance of international law and fundamental principles.”
“On behalf of the Croatian government, I would like to once again express my support for Ukraine, the Ukrainian people, the President, the entire government and thank Minister Kuleba for coming to Dubrovnik today,” the Croatian prime minister said.
He emphasized that there is unity in support of Ukraine among a huge number of countries. Thus, Plenković recalled the recent Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, where, as he noted, about a hundred international organizations and countries were represented, supporting the project of finding a peaceful solution to the consequences of Russian aggression against Ukraine, rather than a solution that would reward the aggressor and thus send a negative signal to other potential aggressors.
“Croatia is helping Ukraine in the political, diplomatic, technical, humanitarian, economic and military spheres, and we will continue to provide all forms of support. Especially given our specific interests in the investigation of war crimes, in humanitarian demining, which we have been facing for 30 years and which we will complete only in March 2026,” Plenković emphasized.
Experts Club analyzed the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club think tank, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the Center’s founder, Maksym Urakin, in the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 4.1% to 5.3% compared to the same period last year.
“The main growth factors were an increase in agricultural exports and production activity in certain industries. However, the negative balance of foreign trade in goods in the first quarter amounted to almost $6 billion, which is 10% more than last year. This is due to an increase in energy imports after the strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector in March,” Urakin said.
According to the founder of Experts Club, Ukraine’s national debt has reached a new historical high of $151 billion, which is almost 6 trillion hryvnia in hryvnia equivalent. Inflation in Ukraine in the first quarter was 1% year-on-year, which is in line with the NBU’s target range.
Global economy
Maksim Urakin noted that analysts forecast that the global economy will grow by 2% in 2024, which is lower than expected at the end of last year. The main reasons for the slowdown are high interest rates in developed countries and global geopolitical uncertainty.
“The US economy grew by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, which is lower than the growth rates observed in previous quarters, but still at an acceptable level for the development of the country’s economy. China’s economy grew by 5% due to a partial recovery from the crisis and government injections into the technology cluster,” the expert summarized.
He also reminded that the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to grow modestly in 2024 by only 0.8%, i.e. even less than 1%.
“High inflation and weak domestic demand remain the main problems of the EU countries. However, the British economy showed a modest growth of 0.6%, which indicates a weak recovery from the pandemic and Brexit,” Urakin said.
The economic situation in the world remains tense and depends on many factors, including geopolitical risks and changes in the global economic and political landscape. The Experts Club will continue to monitor the situation and provide up-to-date and balanced news.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics Maksim Urakin
The capital’s labor market is showing signs of recovery despite the ongoing hostilities. The Kyiv City Employment Service has released data on the most sought-after vacancies in the capital.
As of mid-June, the database of the Kyiv City Employment Center contained 3,000 offers from employers.
The labor market analysis revealed that workers in a wide range of industries, including industry, utilities, transportation and logistics, economics, medicine and education, are in the highest demand. This reflects the urgent need for personnel in key sectors of the Kyiv economy.
So who are the capital’s employers looking for:
1. Installers of electronic equipment (267 vacancies)
2. Accountants (261 vacancies)
3. Cooks (200 vacancies)
4. Drivers of motor vehicles (196 vacancies)
5. Sellers of food products (189 vacancies)
6. Nurses (143 vacancies)
7. Administrators (125 vacancies)
8. Teachers (113 vacancies)
9. Teaching assistants (110 vacancies)
10. Security guards (94 vacancies)
“Our data shows a gradual recovery of the labor market in Kyiv. We see an increase in demand for specialists in various fields, from IT to medicine. Our service is ready to support both job seekers and employers by offering a number of active programs and an individual approach to each client,” said Dmytro Novytskyi, Director of the Kyiv City Employment Center.
About the Kyiv Employment Service:
The Kyiv Employment Service provides comprehensive employment services, including vocational training, counseling and job search support. The service also offers compensation programs for employers.
This week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its net sales of dollars on the interbank market to $670.41 million from $722.57 million the previous week, according to the regulator. According to the data, the central bank bought $0.49 million, while selling $670.90 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate rose by 0.2%, or 10 kopecks, over the week, in particular, on Friday it strengthened by 8 kopecks to 40.4542 UAH/$1. On the cash market, the dollar also fell by 5 kopecks to 40.82 UAH/$1.
Since the beginning of 2024, the official hryvnia exchange rate has fallen by 6.5%, or UAH 2.45, and since the National Bank switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, it has fallen by 10.6%, or UAH 3.89.
According to the data published by the NBU during this period, from Monday to Wednesday, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases and sales by the population widened from $42.78 million to $45.66 million.
Overall, in June, the NBU’s net interventions amounted to $2.99 billion, compared to $3.07 billion in May and $2.28 billion in April. According to preliminary estimates of the National Bank, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 7.9%, or $3.4 billion, to $39 billion 033.8 million last month.
At the same time, the official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 90 kopecks in May, from 39.6370 UAH/$1 to 40.5373 UAH/$1, gradually updating its historical lows every day in the last ten days of the month and approaching the average annual exchange rate of 40.7 UAH/$1 set in the state budget for 2024. In the cash market, the hryvnia also weakened by UAH 1.24 over the month to UAH 41.05/$1. The National Bank explained this weakening by the government’s increased spending after receiving external financing in March-April, as well as the impact of the largest package of currency restrictions for businesses since the start of the full-scale war announced on May 3.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, before the IMF Board of Directors made a positive decision on the allocation of $2.2 billion to Ukraine for the fifth tranche under the EFF extended financing program, signed the law on resetting the Bureau of Economic Security (#3840-IX), the adoption of which was one of the structural beacons of the program.
Information about the signing of the document by the head of state is posted on the website of the Verkhovna Rada.
“An important step forward was the adoption last week of the law on reforming the Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine. It is necessary to quickly and decisively implement this law”, – said the head of the mission of the International monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine Gavin Gray at a press conference on Friday evening after the allocation of the tranche to Ukraine.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada on June 20 by 239 votes with the required minimum of 226 votes adopted the law on the reset of the BEB. “The text is agreed with partners. With independent selection of the new head of the BEB, recertification and personnel selection. With the participation of foreign experts and Ukrainian business. It could have been better, but already well done,” – commented on the adoption of the first Deputy head of the relevant Committee of the Rada Yaroslav Zheleznyak.
According to him, according to the document, the new head of the BEB is selected by a commission of six members, half of whom are international experts with the right to a casting vote. Re-certification is carried out by a commission of six people each from the newly elected BEB director and from international partners, but at the suggestion of the Ukrainian business community. In addition, a Personnel Commission created according to the same scheme will work for the next three years.
“Guaranteed independence of the BEB director at the level of NABU/SAP/NAPK. And many more important changes about the independence of the institution. It is always possible more and better, but in general very ok”, – summarized Zheleznyak.
BEB reboot, IMF, LAW, ZELENSKY
The weather in Ukraine on Sunday, June 30, will be without precipitation, reports Ukrhydrometcenter.
Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
The temperature will be 16-21° at night, 29-34° during the day, in southern and central regions in some places 32-36°; in the highlands of the Carpathians at night 10-15°, 22-27° during the day.
In Kiev on June 30, no precipitation. Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
The temperature is about 20° at night and 30-32° during the day.
According to the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky in Kiev. Boris Sreznevsky in Kiev on June 30, the highest daytime temperature was 34.1° in 1898, the lowest nighttime temperature was 7.6° in 1894.
On the first day of July in Ukraine in the western regions, rain with thunderstorms, hail and squalls 15-20 m/s, temperatures at night 15-20°, daytime 27-32°.
In the rest of the territory hot weather without precipitation, the temperature at night 17-22 °, during the day 30-34 °, in the southern part, Kirovograd, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions in some places strong heat 35-37 °.
Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
In Kiev on July 1, hot weather without precipitation. Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
The temperature is 20-22° at night and 32-34° during the day.
