Structure of foreign exchange reserves as of 30.05.2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The National Bank of Ukraine has imposed fines on eight pawnshops, three lessors, and four financial companies for late submission of reports to the regulator for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.
According to the regulator’s announcement on its website on Wednesday, in particular, Orion-T Lombard Bezborodov & Menaker PA (USREOU 19314356), Credit Center Lombard Tomchuk & Company, Oscar Lombard (Oscar Dry Cleaning, Gluttony Fast Food), UMKV & Company Lombard, 9999 Lombard, and Lombard. Sirenka Y. S. and Company, Lombard Parus LLC, Global Franchising LLC and Company, Lombard Kopiyka LLC, Ukr.Concept-Car LLC and PE ID, and Lombard Shvydka Dopomoga Linichenko and Company.
Among the leasing companies, fines were imposed on Advance Leasing LLC, AVG Leasing and City Leasing.
Finally, among the financial companies that fell under the National Bank’s influence were Wellfin LLC, Money 247, Cardservice and Credo Solutions.
The NBU clarified that the decision to impose enforcement measures was made based on the results of on-site supervision of the non-banking financial services market on August 2, and they will come into force on August 3. Financial service providers have to pay the fines, the amount of which is not specified, within seven business days from the date of receipt of the relevant decision of the regulator.
The State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPF) has presented a website dedicated to the launch of the Land Bank with the publication of answers to the main questions on land relations, as well as a map with the lands that will be accumulated in the Land Bank.
According to the FGI website, the law launching a transparent lease of state-owned agricultural land through online auctions was adopted by the Verkhovna Rada on July 27, obliging the Fund to create a Land Bank.
“The main goal is to fight corruption on state-owned agricultural land. Every year, unscrupulous managers of state-owned agribusinesses leased state land to businesses under “gray” schemes. In their pockets got tens of millions of dollars of cash, and the state – losses,” – quoted the press service of the head of the FGI Rustem Umerov.
It recalled that about 700 thousand hectares of state farmland for years did not bring funds for the budget and citizens. FGI intends to change this by accumulating information about them in the Land Bank and will subsequently lease through open online auctions on the electronic platform Prozorro.
“The new investment product will allow each Ukrainian to start their own business, transparently and openly leasing a land plot through an online auction “, – emphasized in the FGI.
According to preliminary calculations, the expected economic effect from the introduction of transparent land lease will be up to 7 billion UAH per year.
The first auctions will be held in 2024.
Poland’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said the competent Ukrainian service on Friday adopted a decision on the regionalization of Newcastle disease and lifted in this regard a complete ban on imports of Polish poultry products.
“The ban on imports of hatching eggs, live poultry and untreated poultry products and raw materials has been lifted, with the exception of areas affected by Newcastle disease virus, determined by the competent authority of the Republic of Poland,” the website of the Polish agency said.
According to the report, the restrictions do not apply to products that have undergone treatment that guarantees the destruction of the virus, in accordance with the requirements for the importation into the customs territory of Ukraine of live animals and their reproductive material, food products of animal origin, feed, hay, straw, as well as by-products of animal origin and derivative products, approved by the order of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine № 553 of November 16, 2018.
At the same time, the agency “Interfax-Ukraine” has not yet managed to find on the official websites of the Ukrainian Ministry, as well as the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection relevant information on the lifting of the ban on imports of Polish poultry products to Ukraine.
As reported, on July 13, by the order of the Chief State Veterinary Inspector, a restriction was imposed on the import of hatching eggs, poultry and poultry products from Poland to Ukraine due to the registration of Newcastle disease in the country.
According to Polish mass media reports, the disease was detected for the first time in 50 years at a poultry farm in Bialystok district, where 43.41 thousand chickens are kept for slaughter. The Polish authorities have repeatedly asked the Ministry of Agrarian Policy to allow the export of these products to Ukraine, leaving the ban on supplies only for the regions where the disease was detected.
Esayment Financial Company LLC will manage the unsold assets of Ukraina, Allonge, Innovative Industrial Bank, Volodymyrskyy and four other banks, whose liquidation procedure was launched before September 22, 2012.
As reported by the National Bank on Friday evening, the company was determined by the results of the tender held on the electronic platform zakupki.prom.ua.
According to the NBU, in the first quarter of this year, FC Esayment had no revenue, and net loss amounted to 70 thousand UAH with labor costs of 22.7 thousand UAH. Assets of the company at the end of the quarter were equal to UAH 20.18 mln, shareholders’ equity – UAH 5.89 mln
The European Bank for Development and Savings, Sintez Bank, Soccom Bank and East European Bank were also included in the number of these banks.
It is specified that the relevant decision was approved by the Committee on supervision and regulation of banks, payment infrastructure oversight of the NBU on July 31.
This competition was announced on May 3 this year, potential applicants had 30 working days from the date of publication of the announcement to submit proposals. A similar tender was announced in 2020.
Esayment FC states on its website that it was established 7 years ago and unites 17 professionals. The main owner with 99% stake is the director of the company Sergey Burka. The company has licenses to provide factoring, financial leasing and financial credit services.
The company’s revenue in 2022 amounted to UAH 500 thousand, other operating income – UAH 6.329 million, labor costs – UAH 186 thousand, net profit – UAH 16.2 thousand.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year amounted to 18.3% after a decline of 10.5% in the first quarter, such an updated estimate the National Bank of Ukraine published in an inflation report on its website on Friday night.
According to it, the economic recovery will slow to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2023 and 1.8% in the fourth quarter, with a slight acceleration to 2.6-2.2% in the first and second quarters of next year.
In late April, the National Bank expected GDP growth of 15.9% in the second quarter of this year, and 3.9% and 3.7% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Overall, as reported, the NBU improved its forecast for Ukraine’s economic recovery this year to 2.9% from 2.0% in April (including by improving its estimate of the decline in the first quarter from 13.5% to 10.5%), but worsened it for next year to 3.5% from 4.3%.
“The baseline scenario is based on assumptions about Ukraine’s consistent compliance with the obligations of the Extended Fund Facility Program with the IMF, coherent monetary and fiscal policies, gradual leveling of quasi-fiscal imbalances, particularly in the energy sector. Also, the baseline scenario assumes a tangible reduction of security risks from mid-2024, which will contribute to the full unblocking of seaports, reduction of sovereign risk premium and return of forced migrants to Ukraine”, – the National Bank almost verbatim repeated the paragraph of the previous inflation report, but moved the reduction of security risks from the beginning of 2024 to its middle.
Despite this, the key risk to the forecast is still a longer duration and intensity of the war, which could slow economic recovery and worsen inflation and exchange rate expectations, the National Bank emphasizes.
Among other risks, the regulator named a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythmicity of international aid, the resumption of significant power shortages due to further destruction of energy infrastructure, which will limit economic activity and exports and lead to higher imports and demand for foreign currency.
The NBU also pointed out the risks of export logistics constraints due to large-scale terrorist attacks, the emergence of additional budgetary needs and significant quasi-fiscal deficits, particularly in the energy sector; further complications for agro-products exports.
The National Bank estimates the probability of the risk of prolongation of the war and its escalation, as well as eco-terrorism of the occupants, as well as a quarter earlier, at the level of 25% to 50%.
As for the “grain corridor,” which stopped working in June, although the National Bank estimated this risk at 25-50%, now the regulator gives a 15-25% probability of restoring its work and the same value estimates the new risk of continuing food ban by some European countries, which threatens additional losses of $500 million by the end of this year and a possible reduction in crops.
With a probability of 15-25%, the National Bank also assumes such risks as increased emigration and imbalance of public finances (freezing of tariffs on housing and utility services, reduction of international aid, emission financing of the deficit).
The risk of renewed energy deficit due to damage to infrastructure is on the scale of the National Bank, as in April, at up to 15%.
In this report, as well as in the previous one, there is a mention of such a factor as “Marshall Plan”, which can greatly affect and improve the macro outlook, and its probability the central bank kept at 15-25%.
