In the first half of 2023 concluded lease deals for 69 thousand square meters of offices in Kiev, which is 51% more than the same period of 2022, follows from the research of CBRE.
“These are not the volumes we saw before the war. But tenants have increased their activity in the market on the background of attractive discounts and the opportunity to improve the quality of their offices,” said Anastasia Kachan, Senior Office Real Estate Consultant at CBRE, at the conference “Ukrainian Real Estate Market Analytics: first half of 2023”.
According to her, most of the tenant categories have reduced activity in 2022-2023. – FMCG, business services, wholesale, medicine. At the same time, there is an increase in inquiries from public sector companies and non-government public organizations. Before the war, these tenants gave up to 5% of lease transactions, now they have almost 30%. As for the IT sector, it managed to keep its leading positions, last year its share decreased from 45% to 32%, now it is about 47%.
New supply is insignificant: in the first half of the year the office real estate market was replenished with only 13 thousand square meters, which is 86% less than the volume of new supply in the first half of 2022.
“Now only the objects started before the war are being completed, and this situation is likely to last for quite a long time, given the vacancy rate,” Kachan said.
As of the end of Q1 2023, 26.4% (+0.4% vs. the beginning of 2023) are vacant. At the same time vacancy in Class B office centers decreased from 29.2% to 28%, in Class A increased from 22.3% to 24%.
The expert explained the growth of vacancy in class A primarily by a significant amount of new supply of class A at the end of last year.
The effective prime rate has stabilized at $21/sq. m/month.
As for the timing of contracts, Kachan noted the willingness of businesses to plan for the medium term in a war-torn environment.
“Last year, contracts were more often renegotiated for three to six months with the expectation that the war would end soon. In 2023, the terms are fixed “until the end of wartime,” where the “war rate” is prescribed and there is an agreement that after the war it will be revised to reflect market conditions,” Kachan said.
In the spring, CBRE conducted a survey of companies’ plans for their offices. Most of them, 56%, intend to keep the volumes, some are negotiating more favorable lease terms, some are doing nothing. 13% reported that they will partially reduce the office, 12% are considering moving to a co-working space, 12% are closing/canceling the office, 4% are thinking about sub-tenants, 3% want to move to a cheaper office.
At the same time, actual office attendance ranges from 15-20% to 50+%, depending on the business model.
Factors in choosing a new office remain unchanged. Top requirements: equipped bomb shelter, distance from critical infrastructure, energy autonomy.
“Given the uncertainty of energy supply during the 2023 heating season, we anticipate an increase in fall/winter attendance,” Kachan reported.
Headquartered in Los Angeles, CA, CBRE is the world’s largest commercial real estate advisory and investment company, with revenues of $30.8 billion in 2022, according to Fortune, a Fortune 500 list of the world’s largest companies.
Shares of CBRE Group Inc. are traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
CBRE’s Ukrainian office was opened in January 2008 and is part of the company’s affiliated network.
Ukraine’s state budget on Thursday received a $1.5 billion concessional loan through the World Bank’s Trust Fund mechanism under guarantees from the Japanese government, the Finance Ministry said.
“The raised funding will be used to restore the economy and strengthen social protection of the population,” the release quoted Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko as saying, thanking the WB and Japan for the allocation of funds.
The Finance Ministry recalled that since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has received more than $581 million in concessional financing from the Japanese government through the Japan International Development Agency (JICA).
“This year, the Japanese government is expected to provide another $2 billion in direct budget support through the World Bank Trust Fund,” the ministry added.
As previously indicated by the Ministry of Finance, as of July 21 this year, Ukraine’s state budget received funding from international partners in the amount of $23.6 billion, compared to $32.1 billion last year, with a need for this year of about $42 billion.
Since then, the budget has also received EUR1.5bn of the sixth tranche of EU macrofinancial aid.
The Verkhovna Rada has approved the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky on prolonging the term of martial law.
People’s deputies supported the corresponding bill No. 9532 by a total of 347 votes at the plenary session on Thursday, member of the Golos faction Yaroslav Zheleznyak said in his Telegram channel.
The term of martial law in Ukraine continued for 90 days from 05.30 am on August 18, 2023.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada on May 2 approved the presidential decree extending the term of martial law until August 18.
Ukraine’s hotel market has stabilized amid the war, with the highest activity in the west of the country and a slow recovery in Kyiv, according to a study by EY Ukraine.
“We can state that the market has stabilized in the new realities. Lviv, Bukovel and western Ukraine in general have very positive indicators, while Kyiv’s are quite low. In the capital, hotel occupancy is 15-25%, while before the war, the normal rate was 50-60%,” said Rostyslav Khoma, Head of Real Estate Advisory Services at EY Ukraine, at the conference “Analytics of the Ukrainian Real Estate Market: First Half of 2023”.
According to the company’s research, in Lviv and Bukovel, hotel occupancy in June 2023 was about 50-60%, while in Kyiv it was about 25%. At the same time, occupancy in the capital has shown moderate growth since January 2023, and June showed the highest occupancy rate in Kyiv since the start of the full-scale war.
“At the moment, we do not yet see any grounds for a sharp change in the level of loading in Kyiv given the current situation,” Khoma said.
In the first half of the year, the main income of hotels was directly from accommodation, while the food & beverage category and conference functions brought less money.
According to the expert, further recovery and development of the hotel market depends on the military and macroeconomic situation in the country.
“If the war ends quickly, there are more positive expectations due to the possible resumption of air travel, a potential increase in foreign tourists. However, it will take some time until tourists are convinced that it is safe to travel to Ukraine. In the event of a protracted war, however, the emphasis will have to be on domestic tourism. Given the restrictions on men traveling abroad, domestic tourism will be a key driver of demand in the medium and long term,” Khoma summarized.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the law No. 8401, canceling the 2% flat tax and bringing back documentary checks and PPO control, said the head of the specialized parliamentary committee Daniil Getmantsev.
“Bill 8401 has become a law. Use it,” he wrote in telegrams.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada on June 30 adopted the law № 8401, one of the important structural beacons of the program with the IMF, on the abolition of the 2% single tax from August 1 and the return of documentary checks and PPO control.
Later, MPs from the inter-factional association “Reasonable Policy”, as well as the factions “Servant of the People” and “Batkivshchyna” registered three draft resolutions in the Verkhovna Rada to cancel the results of voting for this document in the second reading and as a whole, but they were rejected.
ArcelorMittal increased its EBITDA by 44% in Q2 2023 compared to Q1, to $2.6 bln, the company said in a statement.
The steelmaker points to improving market conditions as well as positive effects from M&A deals (the acquisition of Pecem in Brazil and the consolidation of ArcelorMittal Texas HBI). For the six months, EBITDA rose to $4.4 billion from $3.9 billion a year earlier.
Operating profit last quarter was up 62% on Q1, to $1.9 billion. January-June operating profit was $3.1 billion, compared with $8.9 in the first six months of 2022.
Net income in the April-June period was $1.86 billion (up 70%), down 63% to $2.96 billion for the first half of the year.
Revenue increased last quarter by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter to $18.6 bln. In January-June, ArcelorMittal’s revenue fell by 16% to $37.1 bln largely due to lower metal shipments and a 14.7% drop in average realized price.
ArcelorMittal’s April-June capex totaled $1.06 billion ($938 million quarter earlier), with a 2023 capex guidance of $4.5-5 billion.
In the second quarter, the company increased steel output by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter to 14.7 million tons; for the half-year, it decreased by 5.5% to 29.2 million tons.
Metal shipments fell 2% to 14.2 million tons last quarter, down 3.4% (to 28.7 million tons) in January-June.
The company’s production of yellow ore for the quarter fell 4.5% to 6.4 million tons, with 13.1 million tons produced in the six months compared to 14.2 million tons of yellow ore a year earlier.
