The number of Ukrainians under temporary protection in Poland increased by 5,600 in June 2025 to 992,500, which is the largest monthly increase among all EU countries (+0.6% per month), according to the analytical center of the international employment company Gremi Personal.
“Over the year, the number of Ukrainians per thousand Poles has increased from 26 to 27. These data indicate that Poland remains attractive to Ukrainians as a place of temporary or even long-term residence. In addition, the European Council’s decision to extend temporary protection until March 4, 2027, gives Ukrainians in Poland more confidence in the future, as well as the opportunity to plan their education, work, or integration into local communities,” said Yuriy Grygorenko, director of the Gremi Personal analytical center.
It is noted that the growth rate of the Ukrainian community has slowed down, but Poland remains in second place in the EU in terms of the number of Ukrainians with this status after Germany (about 1.2 million people) and remains home to 23% of all Ukrainians who have received temporary protection in Europe. In total, according to Eurostat, as of June 30, more than 4.3 million Ukrainian citizens were under temporary protection in the EU.
The center’s analysts also note a decrease in the share of women in the structure of Ukrainian refugees in EU countries from 45.6% to 44.7%, while the share of men, on the contrary, increased from 22.0% to 24.1%.
“The increase in the proportion of men in EU countries may be related to the fact that after the first years of the war, Ukrainian men who were eligible to leave (large families, people with disabilities, elderly men) are more likely to join their families in the EU. In addition, while the first waves of departure were mainly forced and protective in nature (women with children fleeing danger), now more Ukrainians are leaving for economic reasons—to find work or stable living conditions,” Hryhorenko noted.
He also drew attention to the fact that children still account for a high proportion of temporary refugees (over 31%), which in the long term could create risks of some families not returning to Ukraine after the war. “The prolonged presence of a significant number of women and children abroad creates risks of depopulation and the loss of a generation. A gradual increase in the proportion of men may indicate that families are settling in the EU and that their chances of returning to Ukraine after the war are potentially decreasing,” Hryhorenko concluded.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/
Issue No. 1 – August 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
The first ten days of August and the beginning of the second were marked by a number of data and decisions that set the tone for the exchange rate in the coming weeks. As before, external factors dominate, while internal factors mostly generate situational impulses and slight volatility without changing the long-term trend.
International context
UNITED STATES. July inflation slowed to within expectations, with prices rising by 2.7% yoy and core inflation (excluding food and fuel) by 3.1%, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and giving the dollar a brief respite after strong macro statistics in previous periods. The labor market has also cooled: nonfarm payrolls were weaker and unemployment rose, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish scenario for the Fed. Taken together, these factors reduce the so-called USD tightening premium over the next few weeks, at least until the Fed makes clear signals about its future policy.
Eurozone. The flash estimate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) published by Eurostat for July was 2.0% y/y (stable), which preserves the ECB’s argument for gradual cautious easing later this year. The final GDP estimates for the two quarters confirmed weak but still positive growth. For the euro’s future trajectory, this is more of a neutral or moderately negative signal in isolation from other drivers, as there was no hawkish surprise.
The UK sent its own signal to the global currency tone – its central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bp to 4.0%, signaling the start of monetary policy rebalancing by other major economies outside the US and the euro area and creating expectations for a broader rate review, provided that other macro indicators confirm this policy. In general, such processes soften the dollar’s advantage in the basket of global currencies over the next 1-2 months, if the Fed moves in the same direction.
The global energy factor has not yet provided any impetus for key economies to revise their policies. Market expectations for oil prices have not changed dramatically, and current quotes fully reflect the news background of recent weeks: the supply/demand balance does not add to inflationary tensions in the EU, so it is not a factor that would force the ECB to tighten its policy. This will also work against further euro appreciation. The expected trajectory is for a neutral or moderately downward impact on the euro, provided there are no other signals or data that could restrain or reverse the current trend.
Thus, given the current international backdrop, the USD has fewer reasons and drivers to strengthen in the short term, while the EUR is more likely to experience a sideways move.
The key factors in the near term will be the September Fed rate decision and further actions by the central banks of the world’s major economies: the expected convergence of rates in the leading economies reduces the US yield advantage, which means that the dollar’s advantage is melting away, but the euro is not getting its new driver either.
Domestic Ukrainian context
Reserves and interventions. The National Bank of Ukraine’s international reserves remain high, despite the NBU’s significant foreign currency sales and debt repayments. Despite the decline, the reserve cushion remains sufficient to smooth out fluctuations and maintain a controlled exchange rate dynamic.
Inflation. In July, inflation slowed to 14.1% year-on-year (yoy), and for the first time in two years, deflation was recorded at -0.2% on a monthly basis. This reduces short-term price risks and inflationary premiums in the pricing of importers/retailers. For the hryvnia exchange rate, these factors are neutral or moderately calming, as they eliminate the arguments for a sharp “insurance” demand for the currency.
External support is coming in as expected, which supports the basic set of factors for a stable hryvnia scenario. The EU Council’s decision to disburse another fourth tranche of more than €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Facility is an important reinforcement of fiscal stability and FX liquidity for the fall months. This indirectly reduces the risks of hryvnia volatility in the foreign exchange market.
A new step in currency liberalization by the NBU is a positive signal of stable expectations of the market and the regulator. In early August, the NBU allowed the repatriation of dividends and expanded hedging instruments, as well as simplified a number of technical FX transactions. Structurally, this reduces market risks and improves predictability for businesses without a sharp additional demand for foreign currency, which also removes pressure on the exchange rate.
The Ukrainian market is entering the second half of August with a preserved exchange rate consensus: reserves are sufficient, external financing is confirmed, inflation has cooled, and liberalization is dosed and managed. Domestic factors will continue to give short bursts, but the overall direction will still be determined outside Ukraine – by international data and decisions, primarily those of the US and the EU.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior – calm and narrow corridor
In general, the Ukrainian FX market is in a calm phase: international factors do not provide drivers for sharp changes, while the NBU’s measured interventions and liberalization keep market volatility and manageability low. Domestic demand is not driven by hype or accumulative drivers, importers act as planned without provoking abnormal surges, and market operators’ “insurance” margins are smaller or practically absent in the UAH/USD quotes.
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior – reflection of the euro to hryvnia exchange rate on external factors
After a long, smooth slide in the buy range of 47.85 to 47.75 and sell range of 48.65 to 48.45, the exchange rate rebounded sharply on 13-14 October: buy range of 47.90 to 48.20 and sell range of 48.50 to 48.85. The official NBU exchange rate rose by a one-day jump from 48.0758 to 48.6472, up UAH 0.58.
A steady downward trend was observed for thirty days, which was interrupted by a corrective recovery on August 13-14.
For most of the period, market rates were equidistant from the official one (the classic corridor), and the bid/ask spread remained at ~0.50-0.70 UAH/€, a sign of stable expectations and lack of nervousness.
The recorded rebound was the result of an external impulse (movement in the EUR/USD pair on the global market after the US statistics) and was quickly reflected in the EUR/UAH market quotes.
Such episodes do not indicate an imbalance, but only the expected technical alignment between the external and internal markets without changing the overall trend – data from the US and eurozone statistics allowed the EUR to make a technical rebound, but the market has already played off this momentum, so without new significant data from the US or the EU, we should not expect further growth in the euro against the hryvnia.
Domestic demand will also not be able to drive the growth of quotations due to the speculative component of setting rates by market participants – after the overheating of June and July and the exhaustion of effective demand, interest in cash euros has cooled. Importers are acting in a planned manner, which smooths out the overall pressure on the market and helps to normalize spreads.
Forecast.
Recommendations: act in ranges, keep liquidity, hedge risks
Key universal ideas:
– On the short term: USD has fewer reasons to strengthen, EUR is more likely to be sideways with technical bounces.
– Liquidity over profitability: keep a stock of free currency for current needs, term instruments only with the option of early access with minimal losses.
– A universal strategy for everyone – flexibility, trenching, hedging.
– Plan in ranges, not points: include exchange rate corridors in your calculations and forecasts, not fixed numbers.
– Keep an eye on spreads: this is now a more important indicator than the exchange rate. Narrowing is the moment to optimize purchases/sales, while widening is a signal to slow down.
– Risk management: Avoid large transactions and fixed commitments, avoid decisions based on emotions after news/social media – in the context of exchange rate calm, the media are trying to “squeeze clickbait out of nothing.”
For private investors and savers:
For speculative operations on USD/UAH & EUR/UAH:
– It’s time for short positions and quick action: record profits regularly in “small portions” and cut losses quickly.
– Watch out for “intersections” between the official and the market: a sudden jump in the official rate and narrowing spreads usually mean a technical lag and a quick “catching up” of the market – an opportunity for short positions / profit taking.
– Take care of liquidity: refrain from transactions or make smaller trades in an illiquid market (narrow choice of profitable offers, wide spreads), do not hold large positions before the release of important news.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to the EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
In 2025, the apple harvest in Ukraine will decrease by 7.6% compared to last year, to about 1 million tons, according to the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) in its annual report Prognosfruit 2025.
The decline is primarily due to spring frosts that affected a number of European countries. In Europe, the most serious decline is expected in Greece (-51.5%), Romania (-39.5%), and Serbia (-26.7%).
At the same time, production is expected to increase in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Belgium, which will partially offset the decline in the affected countries.
According to WAPA estimates, total apple production in the European Union in 2025 will amount to 10.46 million tons, which is 7.5% below the average level of recent years but almost at the level of 2024. Among the varieties, the largest declines are expected for Red Delicious (-19.2%) and Idared (-8.8%), while Golden Delicious will decline by only 0.9% and Gala will maintain last year’s volumes.
In January-July of this year, DTEK Energy’s machine builders manufactured and repaired 1,992 units of mining equipment, including four new combines for mining operations, according to a press release from the company.
In addition, 1.4 million spare parts and components were manufactured.
As reported, in the first seven months of 2024, machine builders manufactured nine combines and 618,000 spare parts for mines.
“DTEK Energy’s machine builders continue to be a reliable source of important equipment for Ukrainian mines. Thanks to their work, coal mining companies can operate more reliably, maintain production, and energy companies can more confidently get through summer peak loads and prepare for the upcoming heating season,” said DTEK Energy CEO Alexander Fomenko, as quoted in the report.
As reported, in the first half of 2025, DTEK Energy invested UAH 2.9 billion in Ukrainian coal mining, while in 2024, investments in Ukrainian mines amounted to about UAH 7.5 billion, and over the last three years (2022-2024) – UAH 18 billion.
DTEK Energy provides a closed cycle of electricity production from coal. As of January 2022, the company’s installed thermal generation capacity was 13.3 GW. A complete production cycle has been established in coal mining: coal extraction and enrichment, machine building, and maintenance of mining equipment.
PJSC Dniprovsky Metallurgical Plant (DMZ), part of the DCH Steel group owned by businessman Alexander Yaroslavsky, is entering the machine-building market: in July, the company began fulfilling orders for the manufacture, repair, and processing of equipment parts.
According to information published in the DCH Steel corporate newspaper on Thursday, since December 2024, the specialized metallurgical equipment repair shop (SCRMU) has been manufacturing non-standard metal structures for third-party organizations. The shop has now expanded its scope of activities and also accepts orders for the repair and manufacture of equipment parts.
At the same time, specialists from the sales department, the supply department, and SMRE engineers monitor tenders announced by companies; quickly assess the feasibility of an order and its cost; and prepare proposals and contracts.
To date, DMZ has already fulfilled several orders from third-party organizations. In particular, in August, a 1925 mm diameter electric motor rotor was machined, for which special equipment was manufactured. Last week, the customer accepted the work and has already delivered another rotor to the workshop for repair.
Currently, the SCPRM also manufactures bevel gears, labyrinth rings, washers, axles for trolleys, and other parts. On August 14, they will begin manufacturing epicycles.
The plant traditionally fulfills orders from the Sukha Balka mine.
Another article reports that DMZ railway workers laid 240 meters of new track and installed a switch at the Novoprokatanaya station. The work was carried out in July and August. The new track connects two railway branches, allowing the plant’s locomotives to run directly from the metallurgical site to the depot and rolling mill No. 2. Previously, the railway depot could only be reached through the metalworks plant, and DMZ paid rent for using its neighbors’ tracks.
In addition, it is reported that two power transformers were disconnected at DMZ to reduce electricity consumption. In July, power supply specialists disconnected transformers at the complete transformer substation No. 70 of the molding and casting shop and at the KTP No. 7 of the oxygen shop. To ensure electricity supply to consumers, a 0.4 km cable was laid to the existing transformers at substations No. 24 and No. 35.
The disconnected transformers supplied electricity to a small number of consumers, so their decommissioning will not significantly increase the load on the existing transformers, the article notes.
Thanks to the shutdown of energy-intensive equipment, the energy consumption of transformers during idle operation has been reduced by 6-7 kW per hour.
DMZ specializes in the production of steel, cast iron, rolled products, and products made from them, such as channels and angles, special profiles for machine building and mining.
On March 1, 2018, the DCH Group signed an agreement to purchase the Dniprovsky Metallurgical Plant.
In January-July of this year, Ukrainian enterprises increased their consumption of rolled metal products by 13.18% compared to the same period last year, to 2 million 302.7 thousand tons.
According to a press release from the Ukrmetallurgprom association on Wednesday, 862,700 tons were imported during this period, or 37.46% of the domestic market for rolled metal consumption.
According to Ukrmetallurgprom,
in the first seven months of 2025, metallurgical enterprises produced 3.622 million tons of rolled metal (97.2% compared to the same period in 2024), of which, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, about 2.182 million tons, or 60.2%, were exported. In January-July 2024, the share of exports was 64.5% (2.405 million tons with a total production of rolled metal products of 3.728 million tons).
The share of semi-finished products in export deliveries in January-July 2025 is 32.58%, which is significantly lower than in January-July 2024 (46.90%). The share of flat rolled products in export deliveries in January-July 2025 significantly exceeded the January-July 2024 figure (44.55% and 39.83%, respectively). The share of long products is also significantly higher than in January-July 2024 (22.83% in 2025 against 13.26% in 2024).
The structure of imports in January-July 2025 continues to be characterized by the significant dominance of flat rolled products over long products (74.75% and 20.20%, respectively). In January-July 2024, flat rolled products also significantly dominated over long products (79.38% and 19.04%, respectively).
“In the first seven months of 2025, the domestic market capacity was 2,302.7 thousand tons of rolled metal products, of which 862.7 thousand tons, or 37.46%, accounted for imports. In January-July 2024, the domestic market capacity was 2,034.6 thousand tons, of which 711.6 thousand tons, or 34.97%, were imported. Thus, in January-July 2025, there was an increase in the capacity of the domestic market relative to January-July 2024 by 13.18%, with a simultaneous increase in the share of imports by 2.49%,” the press release states.
According to the State Customs Service, the main export markets for Ukrainian rolled metal products in the first seven months of 2025 were the European Union (81.5%), other European countries (8.2%), and the CIS (6.7%).
Among metallurgical importers in January-July 2025, other European countries ranked first (55.4%), followed by the EU-27 (23.7%) and Asian countries (17.8%).
As reported, Ukraine’s rolled metal market in 2024 shrank by 6.26% compared to the previous year, to 3 million 288.4 thousand tons, while in 2023 it increased by 2.19 times compared to 2022, to 3 million 505.6 thousand tons.
