Issue No. 1 – September 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of September in the global financial markets, as well as in the Ukrainian one, was marked by the expectation of a key decision by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed chairman made it clear that policy would have to be adjusted in order not to “overstretch” the economy, which is already showing signs of cooling. Inflation rose slightly again in August, but not critically, and the labor market is gradually weakening. This has put investors on hold: whether the Fed will cut rates in September or take a break. This answer will affect not only the dollar, but also the dynamics of the euro and hryvnia, as well as gold, stock, and even cryptocurrency prices.
Against this background, Europe looks quite calm. Inflation is hovering around 2%, which is the level that the European Central Bank is targeting. There are no new reasons to raise rates, so the regulator decided not to change anything. The eurozone economy is growing very slowly, and this does not give the euro strong arguments for strengthening.
Oil and gas prices did not add to the intrigue in August and September: prices remained more or less stable, with no new peak fluctuations. This is even a disadvantage for the euro, as the absence of energy pressure removes the need for the ECB to act more firmly.
The actual Fed rate cut has not yet occurred, but the market is already living in anticipation of this step, which analysts believe is most likely. Both globally and in Ukraine, the dollar is gradually weakening precisely because investors are pricing in the high probability of a policy easing by the US central bank.
In the euro/dollar pair, the euro is recovering without any drivers of its own, thanks solely to the dollar’s weakening. In Ukraine, the dollar is also drifting downward. This means that the “cheaper” dollar is actually already taken into account in quotes. At the same time, if the Fed does cut the rate in September, the reaction may be short and moderate, as the market has already played out most of the potential impact of this scenario. But if the Fed surprises by keeping the rate unchanged, the dollar will have a chance for a short-term pullback, and the market will have to quickly revise its estimates and expectations.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In Ukraine, the situation remains under control. The National Bank has record reserves and can smooth out any surges in demand or supply of currency. The official hryvnia exchange rate is gradually strengthening, and the cash market is moving in the same direction, without sharp deviations. Spreads – the difference between buying and selling – remain stable, indicating a consensus between the regulator and the market.
The key question for the coming weeks is how the dollar will react to the Fed’s decision. If the rate is cut, the hryvnia may receive additional support, and the euro may rise slightly higher. If the rate is left unchanged, the dollar will retain its advantage, and the Ukrainian market will feel it.
The main news of the first half of September was the government’s benchmark for the dollar exchange rate included in the draft budget for 2026 – an average annual rate of 45.6 UAH/$. It is close to the expectations of the business community: according to a survey by the European Business Association, member companies include UAH 46/$ in their financial plans for 2026, which is higher than the expected exchange rate for 2025 – UAH 44/$. In general, we see a devaluation consensus in the forecasts of the Ukrainian government and business, as there are no prerequisites for a reversal.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
September for the dollar is in a mode of smooth fluctuations with an almost flat downward trend. On global markets, the dollar has already played down most of the expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and this has been reflected in the domestic Ukrainian market.
Over the past 30 days, the exchange rate has been gradually slipping downward: the average buying rate dropped from UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.05, the selling rate from UAH 41.65 to UAH 41.50, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.35 to UAH 41.25. It was a steady and controlled decline, with no sharp impulses. In the second decade of September, the dollar remained in a narrow range of 41.00-41.30 UAH/$ on the cash market, while sales remained in the range of 41.45-41.60 UAH/$.
The NBU’s official exchange rate moves in sync with the market, anchoring the market. Bid and ask spreads remained in a narrow range of UAH 0.40-0.50, while market rates remained equidistant from the official rate, indicating that there is a “rate consensus” between the market and the regulator.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available at this link.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the first half of September, the euro on the Ukrainian market showed restrained dynamics with a gradual shift to the upper limits of the range. During the week, bidding quotes remained in the range of 48.00-48.10 UAH/€, while asking prices were 48.65-48.75 UAH/€. On the 30-day horizon, we can see an undulating trend: a decline in late August, stabilization in early September, and a new attempt to rise closer to the middle of the month.
Specifics of the course location
A characteristic change in the “geometry” is noteworthy: the buying rate during the previous week was clearly “pressing” against the official NBU rate, while the selling rate was gradually moving away from it. At the same time, the spread between buying and selling (0.50-0.60 UAH/€) remains relatively stable. This may indicate that:
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available here.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The dollar has already priced in a high probability of a September Fed rate cut in the domestic market. This means that there is limited room for further decline.
It makes little sense to buy at the bottom; it is better to distribute purchases in tranches without trying to catch the perfect moment.
If the Fed unexpectedly leaves the rate unchanged, the dollar may briefly play up, and this will be an opportunity for those who hold reserves to sell some of them at a profit.
For medium-term plans, the dollar remains the “anchor” of the portfolio, but now is not the time for large one-time transactions – liquidity and flexibility are more important.
EUR/UAH
The euro is showing an interesting “geometry”: the buying rate is approaching the official rate, while the selling rate is moving up. This signals a lower demand for the euro from the population, but also the caution of operators who are hedging against the risk of its growth.
It is now possible to buy euros in small tranches, especially for those who are diversifying their savings or preparing future payments to the EU.
If the Fed does cut the rate, the euro will get a boost and could quickly approach 49-50 UAH/€.
There is little point in selling the euro now, as the upside potential is higher than the downside risk.
It’s better to wait for pullbacks or new peaks to optimize the euro’s share of the portfolio.
Overall strategy
On a short-term horizon, it is worth keeping a balance: the dollar as a stable base, the euro as a flexible instrument with the potential for rebounds.
It is better to buy in installments rather than in one go.
Sell only when the market shows a tangible upward movement.
And most importantly, plan in ranges, not points: the Ukrainian market is currently reacting to external signals rather than internal events.
Given the consensus between the government and business on a managed devaluation trend, the hryvnia is the best choice for saving money in the medium and long term.
If the Fed does lower the rate, it is worth considering diversifying your investment portfolio with crypto: the global market will be attracted to risk when it gets cheaper money.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
JSC OTP BANK plans to continue active lending to corporate business next year, in particular, to increase the volume of financing for renewable energy. This was stated by Alla Biniashvili, Member of the Management Board of OTP Bank responsible for corporate business development, during the event “Global Outlook: Strategic Momentum”.
“What, in our opinion, will be the driver in 2026? Of course, renewable energy. It is already financed mostly by state-owned banks, but all other institutions also prioritize financing energy security and renewable energy. And we at OTP Bank expect a significant increase in its share in our portfolio and in the portfolios of other banks next year,” said A. Biniashvili.
According to her, the banking sector is characterized by a high level of liquidity, and banks are determined to continue to finance businesses. In 2025, the top 3 lending areas include agriculture, food industry, and trade, both wholesale and retail. Financial institutions support Ukrainian companies by competing for customers and offering them optimal rates and conditions. “They do this, they successfully lend. But banks also finance companies. When we look at the balance sheets of banking institutions, we see that liabilities, i.e. deposits and account balances, are twice as high as assets. The reason for this is uncertainty: most companies are afraid to invest in projects because of the war and the risks associated with it. However, we are growing, and the banking sector is developing. If we talk about OTP Bank, we have grown by 35% in hryvnia over six months, i.e. plus UAH 6 billion to the beginning of the year,” emphasized the Board member.
According to Alla Biniashvili, despite all the challenges, including the geopolitical situation, inflation, deterioration of the trade balance due to the need for imports for energy security, lower harvests, and staff shortages, financial institutions are optimistic about the future. “We shouldn’t give up, because when the war is over, everyone will lend, and it will be a boom. And now we are working based on the situation we have and doing everything to effectively support business and the country’s economy,” emphasized the member of the Board of OTP Bank.
The event “Global Outlook: Strategic Momentum” event was attended by Andriy Pyshnyi, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Olena Voloshyna, Country Manager of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in Ukraine, and representatives of the business community. The participants focused on the following key areas: financial stability and the role of business in Ukraine’s recovery. They discussed the practical contribution of companies to rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, as well as the innovations and support needed to overcome current challenges. In total, the event was attended by about 350 guests, with another 200 joining the conference online.
Ivan Vyhivskyi, head of the National Police of Ukraine, and Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security of the State of Israel, had a conversation about preparations for this year’s Hasidic pilgrimage to Uman (Cherkasy region).
“The main topic of the conversation was preparation for this year’s Hasidic pilgrimage to Uman and coordination of efforts to prepare and ensure law enforcement measures in places of gathering of pilgrims,” the Embassy of Ukraine in Israel reported on Tuesday.
The parties agreed to work closely together to agree on the necessary measures during the pilgrimage and coordinate actions on the spot.
Vygivsky thanked his Israeli counterpart for mutual understanding and emphasized the importance of attracting sufficient law enforcement forces from the Israeli side to strengthen the capabilities of Ukrainian law enforcement, given the challenges and threats posed by Russian armed aggression.
“The parties agreed to continue interaction and develop the established cooperation,” the statement said.
Every year, Ukraine hosts tens of thousands of pilgrims to celebrate the Jewish New Year in Uman. This year, Ukraine and Israel have established an effective pragmatic dialogue to ensure a safe pilgrimage under martial law and to take the necessary measures to maintain law and order during the festivities.
The Embassy expressed its gratitude to Minister Gvir for his personal attention to the issue of jointly organizing this year’s Hasidic pilgrimage to Ukraine.
In 2025, the holiday will be celebrated from September 22 to 24.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/diplomats/1104960.html
Pokito eco-brand children’s store, focusing on ages 1 to 10, will open in Ocean Mall, the company’s press service reported.
“Pokito began operations in 2023 with a clear mission: to offer Ukrainian parents high-quality, eco-friendly, and aesthetically appealing clothing for children up to 10 years old. We offer solutions that meet the daily challenges of an active childhood: comfort, practicality, durability, safe materials, and modern design,” said Pokito founder Iryna Zueva.
The 80 sq. m store, located on the entertainment floor of Ocean Mall, will feature proven European and domestic brands that have established themselves through responsible production, high quality standards, and care for children. The children’s clothing, footwear, and related products presented are united by one idea: practicality, quality, and care for the child’s comfort. Currently, the store’s portfolio consists of 15 brands. Among the bestsellers are Spanish Boboli and Cóndor, Danish Liewood and Konges Sløjd, British Mimi & Lula, and others.
The main requirements for manufacturers are a proven reputation thanks to high-quality materials, responsible production, and environmental standards, as well as safe composition and certificates confirming this. Ukrainian brands already represented include Ukrglamour (embroidered shirts, Lutsk) and Elf-Kids (headwear, Odesa).
“We want the item to be worn, not lose its appearance after two or three wash cycles, and delight parents with the fact that they made the right choice by choosing Pokito products. This builds trust and ensures that our customers will come back to us again,” Zueva said.
As for foreign brands, she emphasized that they choose those that have already won favor abroad thanks to their qualities but have not yet gained popularity in the Ukrainian market, which allows them to make a unique commercial offer to domestic customers.
Ocean Mall is a retail resort-style shopping center. It has a total area of 300,000 square meters and parking for 4,000 cars. The mall will have 800 stores and 50 restaurants. Among the largest tenants are the Silpo grocery supermarket and flagship stores of the world’s largest retailers in the fashion, sports, and home goods segments. More than 30,000 square meters of the Ocean Mall shopping center is dedicated to entertainment, including the Galaxy amusement park for the whole family and a seven-screen multiplex cinema.
Losing a tooth is not a death sentence!
Thanks to modern implant technology, restoring comfort and health has become easier than ever. And now is the perfect time to do so, as ADONIS Dentistry is offering special terms: 15% off implants!
South Korean implants Osstem, Dentium, and ISX Premium are distinguished by their quality, which significantly exceeds their cost:
To make an appointment with a dentist and schedule an implant procedure, please contact the receptionist or call the contact center at 0 800 707 707
You can also find out more about implant placement and make an appointment by calling the dental clinic at 067 314 34 38
When making an appointment, please mention that you would like to take advantage of the special offer.
ADONIS – quality medicine for adults and children.
ADONIS is a network of private medical centers for adults and children. The ADONIS private clinic was founded over 25 years ago. Its network includes seven branches in Kyiv and the surrounding region, including a rehabilitation center and a stem cell laboratory. Doctors at the clinic’s branches provide consultations in 65 medical fields. In the context of the war, ADONIS branches with surgical departments provide high-quality medical care to military personnel and civilians.
From 8 to 14 September, despite all the security challenges, DTEK Networks’ distribution system operators (DSOs) managed to fully or partially restore power supply to 79 settlements and bring electricity back to the homes of almost 63,000 families in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv regions.
“Most of the repairs last week were in Donetsk region, which remains the region with the most active hostilities. Despite the extremely difficult situation, our specialists continue to repair the power grid as soon as it becomes possible,” the operating holding company said on Monday.
From September 8 to 14, the region managed to restore power to the homes of 40,500 local residents.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, during the same period, energy workers restored power to 21,100 local residents.
Kyiv region continues to suffer from enemy attacks. Last week, energy workers restored power to 1,100 families whose homes were left without electricity as a result of enemy attacks.
“Despite constant enemy attacks and security challenges, our specialists have been holding the energy front for 1,300 days now. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, we have restored power to more than 21.6 million families in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Donetsk regions and the city of Kyiv,” said Alina Bondarenko, CEO of DTEK Networks.
DTEK Networks develops its business in electricity distribution and power grid operation in Kyiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. The company’s distribution networks serve 5.1 million households and 150,000 businesses.
