Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti has resigned, according to Politika. The reasons for the resignation are not specified, but it comes amid ongoing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia.
Relations between Serbia and Kosovo: historical context
Kosovo, formerly an autonomous region within Serbia, unilaterally declared independence on February 17, 2008. Serbia did not recognize this independence and continues to consider Kosovo its territory.
The conflict between ethnic Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo escalated in 1998, leading to armed confrontation. In 1999, after NATO intervention and the withdrawal of Yugoslav troops,
Kosovo came under UN administration. Since then, the region has been the subject of international negotiations and disputes.
Biography of Albin Kurti
Albin Kurti was born on March 24, 1975 in Pristina. He graduated from the University of Pristina with a degree in Computer Science and Telecommunications. In 1997, he became the vice president of the student union and an organizer of peaceful protests against the Serbian government.
During the conflict in Kosovo, Kurti was arrested and sentenced to 15 years in prison, but was released in 2001. In 2005, he founded the Self-Determination movement (Vetëvendosje), which advocates for the full independence of Kosovo.
He first became prime minister in February 2020, but his government was overthrown a few months later. In March 2021, he became prime minister again and held the position until his resignation in April 2025.
Albin Kurti’s resignation could affect the further development of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, as well as the internal political situation in the entire region.
Source: https://t.me/relocationrs/822
In 2025-2026 marketing year, the export of rapeseed from Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022-2023 MY and will amount to about 2.7-2.8 mln tonnes, down 13% compared to the current season, according to APK-Inform news agency.
The analysts noted that the reason for such a decrease is the expected decrease in oilseed production, as well as a possible increase in demand from the processing industry.
According to experts, in 2025, the production of rapeseed in Ukraine may decrease to the lowest level since 2022 due to the reduction of winter crops area as a result of moisture deficit in the fall of 2024 and poor wintering of crops in a number of major crop producing regions. In addition, cold weather, frosts and snow in the first decade of April may significantly worsen the situation.
According to APK-Inform estimates, the planted areas under rapeseed are 1.34 mln ha (-4%), while the harvested area may not exceed 1.17 mln ha (-10%) and may be even lower due to unfavorable weather conditions. The forecast of oilseed production in 2025 is about 3.35-3.4 mln tons (-8%).
As for the distribution of rapeseed in the new season, analysts believe that the situation will largely depend on the tariff policy of China and the US.
“We are currently witnessing the deterioration of trade relations between the US and China, the US and Canada, and between China and Canada, which will lead to the redistribution of trade flows of canola and processed products, and may change farmers’ plans for sowing this crop in major regions,” the agency said.
Several countries may try to replace Canadian oil and meal on the Chinese market by increasing production of rapeseed/canola, but the question is in the timing – the products are already in short supply and China needs to increase supplies now, not in the new season.
Due to the trade wars, China is expected to increase its demand for Ukrainian rapeseed oil and meal in the new season, which may increase domestic processing, but it will depend on the ratio of the cost of raw materials and oil on the Ukrainian market. In addition, it may be more difficult for Ukrainian companies to build up stocks, as farmers are in no hurry to sell raw materials under forward contracts.
“The trade may remain weak until the impact of frost and snow on the oilseeds in a number of European countries and in Ukraine in particular is assessed. It is also important to keep in mind that if the situation with tariffs does not change before the new season and all duties for Canada remain in force, Canadian canola may increase its presence on the European market, and, therefore, the window for the Ukrainian oilseed remains limited to the first half of the season,” APK-Inform summarized.
JSC Concern Galnaftogaz may allocate most of its net profit for 2024 in the amount of UAH 1.424 billion, namely UAH 1.26 billion, for dividends, so that UAH 165.67 million is left undistributed at the disposal of the company, according to the information disclosure system of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission.
It is reported that the initiative to distribute net profit at the shareholders’ meeting scheduled for April 30, 2025 belongs to the Cyprus-registered shareholder of GNG RETAIL LIMITED (Vitaly Antonov’s GNG RETAIL LIMITED), which owns 99.22619% of the company’s shares.
Another draft resolution on the distribution of net profit provides for leaving it undistributed at the disposal of the company.
As reported, Galnaftogaz operates one of the largest networks of OKKO filling stations, which includes more than 400 complexes with a network of catering facilities. The concern also includes other businesses.
Last June, the EBRD and OKKO signed a EUR60 million loan agreement at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin to build a new bioethanol plant in Ternopil region with a capacity of 83,000 tons per year. It is planned to be built in two years, and the products will be sold on foreign and domestic markets.
Recently, OKKO Group CEO Vasyl Danyliak said that its 20 MW energy storage facility, which was completed at the end of 2024, could start providing power system balancing services to NPC Ukrenergo next month.
He also noted that the group is diversifying its business, and as part of this diversification, it is developing a number of renewable energy projects.
According to him, active preparations are underway for the construction of a 147 MW wind farm in Volyn region, for which a number of IFIs have provided loans: the company plans to complete the first phase of the wind farm by the end of this year, and it will be fully operational at the end of the first quarter of next year. In addition, Danyliak noted that further plans include the implementation of a larger project in the Volyn region – a 190 MW wind farm, which the company has been working on for the past two years. He estimated its cost at EUR300 million, while the 147 MW wind farm is worth EUR240 million. According to him, the company is working with various financial institutions to raise funds for this project.
Issue No. 1 – April 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
In early April, the Ukrainian currency market continued to demonstrate relative stability in the dollar segment and a noticeable strengthening of the euro.
Both processes have different drivers:
Ø the dollar is depreciating due to the external weakness of the US dollar;
Ø the euro is growing both as a result of the global trend and structural demand for the euro in Ukraine;
Ø in general, the Ukrainian FX market is characterized by increased liquidity, narrowing spreads, and decreased volatility against the dollar, which is evidence of the formation of relative predictability of future exchange rate trajectories.
Internal factors and NBU policy
The NBU continues to adhere to its policy of soft control over the foreign exchange market, is present on the interbank market, and maintains its influence on the official exchange rate. At the same time, market quotes for buying and selling currencies are increasingly close to the official exchange rate, which indicates growing confidence in the predictability of regulatory policy.
The acceleration of consumer inflation to 1.5% in March ( 14.6% y/y) and core inflation to 1.4% poses an additional challenge: on the one hand, it may create incentives for the NBU to raise its key policy rate, and on the other hand, it undermines the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments in the short and medium term.
It is also worth noting that in March, Ukrainians reduced their net purchases of foreign currency from banks to $720 million, which was the lowest level of the quarter. This means that the market is saturated with foreign currency, although demand still exceeds supply.
In the future, it is worth paying attention to Ukraine’s foreign trade balance: in January-March 2025, imports exceeded exports twice ($18.5 billion versus $9.9 billion). This indicates a rapid “washout” of foreign currency liquidity from Ukraine. However, this factor can be compensated for if the volume and rhythm of support from external partners and creditors remains the same. Otherwise, sooner or later, the “washout” of foreign currency liquidity may lead to new currency restrictions, primarily for businesses and less likely for households.
The current structure of imports, which is based on machinery, chemicals, and energy, creates a steady demand for foreign currency. The balancing factor is a slowdown in imports, which could ease pressure on the hryvnia in the short and medium term.
In addition, according to economic experts, the equivalent of $130 billion in cash currency may be in circulation outside the banking system, which is a stabilizing buffer for the market.
In addition to international and structural factors, the dynamics of the dollar and euro against the hryvnia may be further influenced by the intensification and growth of transactions between key currencies by households and businesses to change their shares in their savings and investment portfolios. This will add liquidity to the market, although it may also drive exchange rate movements under the influence of speculation. This trend is already becoming noticeable for the euro, which is increasingly becoming attractive for savings and exchange rate premiums amid its growth.
International factors
The global currency market is in the midst of turbulence due to the new US tariff policy introduced by President Donald Trump. And even more so, under the influence of its unpredictability: news and statements that set the trend at the opening of markets lose their relevance or are refuted during the trading session, adding to market nervousness and uncertainty, which forces most economic agents to increase risk premiums.
These processes have triggered unprecedented volatility in many markets, including commodities and stocks, which has led investors with less risk appetite to increase their demand for safe-haven assets, including gold. The flight of liquidity from the dollar weakened it at certain points to a 6-month low.
Against this backdrop, the euro is strengthening, and global expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut are growing. This creates technical room for further euro appreciation.
Overview of dynamics and exchange rate forecast
US dollar exchange rate
In the first ten days of April, the average dollar to hryvnia exchange rate maintained a steady downward trend that has been in place since the beginning of 2025.
The range of fluctuations in March and early April narrowed to UAH 41.20-41.80/$, reflecting the high stability of supply and demand in the market. This is one of the narrowest corridors over the past six months.
The lowest value was recorded at around UAH 41.10/$ in the purchase segment in the first days of April, amid a weakening US dollar on global markets and a decline in demand for the currency domestically.
The further reduction of the spread between the bid and ask rates is particularly significant: in January it exceeded UAH 1, and in April it decreased to less than 60 kopecks, indicating an increase in foreign exchange liquidity, a decrease in panic or speculative expectations, and increased competition between FX market operators, who are guided by the NBU’s official exchange rate and keep the competitive spread within acceptable limits for the market.
Another important indicator is the convergence of bid and ask rates with the NBU’s official exchange rate: market rates for buying and selling the dollar began to move almost synchronously with the official rate, without significant deviations and within +\- 25 kopecks of the official rate, which reduces market volatility.
Ø In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar is likely to move smoothly in the range of UAH 41.10-41.80/$ with possible adjustments within 20-30 kopecks due to situational demand.
Ø In the medium term (2-4 months), the hryvnia may return to the range of UAH 41.80-42.50 in the event of rising inflation, import activity, or pressure on the budget.
Ø In the longer term (6+ months), we maintain our forecast that the exchange rate may move towards UAH 45.00/$.
Euro exchange rate
During March and the first decade of April, the euro showed a clear upward trend, compensating euro holders and recovering all the corrections since the beginning of the year, reaching its highest levels since the beginning of the year and even a peak before the start of the recession in mid-October 2024.
The widening of the spread between buy and sell rates is particularly noticeable: while it used to fluctuate between 60 and 70 kopecks, in April it sometimes reached UAH 1, and for some FX market operators it was over UAH 2. This is an indicator of increased volatility and nervousness among market participants, as operators build increased risks into their margins in anticipation of further euro appreciation.
The rise in the market’s premium to the official exchange rate clearly indicates the formation of strong expectations of further euro appreciation, which the market is trying to play ahead of the curve.
At the same time, the gap between market quotes and the NBU’s official exchange rate is widening, lagging behind market dynamics. FX market operators are responding more quickly to the information and economic background, which play in favor of the euro’s appreciation against the dollar.
Ø In the short term (2-4 weeks), the euro is likely to consolidate in the range of 46-47.50 UAH/€ with potential short-term corrections after a rapid rise.
Ø In the medium term (2-4 months), in the event of positive signals from the EU or further dollar weakness, the euro is likely to test higher levels of 48-49 UAH/€.
Ø In the long-term horizon (6+ months), the euro has clear structural advantages: a growing share of imports, growing popularity as a savings instrument, and global financial restructuring shifting the focus from the dollar to the euro.
Ø Given the dynamic and conflicting information in this issue , we will refrain from providing a long-term outlook for the euro in absolute terms, although we emphasize that the euro/hryvnia pair remains one of the most sensitive and volatile, requiring constant increased attention from businesses and investors when planning their currency structure.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
Given the dynamic situation in the current review, we will divide the recommendations into two separate blocks:
Ø basic recommendations – to help avoid exchange rate risks or minimize losses;
Ø updated recommendations – to help guide you in revising your investment and savings strategies.
Basic recommendations that remain relevant:
Diversification of the currency portfolio is a basic strategy.
The euro demonstrates volatility and growth potential, while the dollar is weak amid global events. It is recommended to keep part of your assets in euros, especially if you have corresponding liabilities. The dollar is a short-term liquidity and hedging instrument.
Maximum liquidity is an absolute priority.
All foreign currency assets should be readily available for operational maneuvering – this is a key condition given global turbulence and political risks.
Keep the hryvnia within its functional scope.
The hryvnia remains stable, but the inflationary backdrop and potential exchange rate risks in the second and third quarters of 2025 do not allow holding a large hryvnia surplus. If possible, avoid tying up hryvnia liquidity in instruments with fixed maturities or without the possibility of revising yields.
Updated and supplemented recommendations
Changing the share of currencies in the portfolio: smooth migration from the dollar to the euro.
It is advisable to gradually rebalance the portfolio towards the euro. It is increasingly used in settlements and potentially provides a better exchange rate premium.
Have a safety margin and hedge your bets.
Buffers should be set aside for forward exchange rate fluctuations that are likely to occur against the backdrop of a sustained surplus of imports over exports and the risks of a slowdown or reduction in the country’s external financing.
Currency speculation should be handled with a high level of caution.
Current market volatility, especially in the euro/hryvnia pair, carries increased risks. Speculation is possible only for experienced players with access to fast and profitable instruments on terms more favorable than standard market ones.
Scenario planning in a long-term strategy.
The global economic landscape is changing rapidly, and even if it stabilizes, it will continue to look for new equilibrium points for a long time. Refuse to rigidly fix currency targets for long horizons and plan alternative investment and savings scenarios in advance.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. CIT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
Global stainless steel production in 2024 increased by 7% compared to 2023, to 62.621 million tons from 58.539 million tons, with production growing in all major regions.
These data are provided in a press release from the World Stainless Association (formerly the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF)).
According to the information, global stainless steel production in 2024 in Europe increased by 1.5% to 6.088 million tons. In the US, production increased by 6.9% to 1.950 million tons.
In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production increased by 6.4% to 7.322 million tonnes, while in China it rose by 7.5% to 39.441 million tonnes.
In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia), production increased by 9.2% to 7.820 million tons.
As reported, global stainless steel production in 2023 increased by 4.6% compared to 2022 to 58.444 million tons. In general, stainless steel production in Europe decreased by 6.2% to 5.902 million tons this year, and in the United States by 9.6% to 1.824 million tons.
At the same time, in Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production decreased by 7.2% to 6.880 million tons, while in China it increased by 12.6% to 36.676 million tons. In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia), production decreased by 5.2% to 7.163 million tons.
In 2022, global stainless steel production decreased by 5.2% compared to 2021, to 55.255 million tons. At the same time, production in Europe fell by 12.4% to 6.294 million tons in that year, and in the United States by 14.8% to 2.017 million tons. In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production decreased by 4.9% to 7.411 million tons, while in China it fell by 2% to 31.975 million tons. In other regions, production decreased by 9.1% to 7.557 million tons.
KSG Agro has begun to upgrade the number of pigs at its pig farm in the Dnipropetrovs’k region by purchasing 500 sows of Danish genetics, the agricultural holding’s press service reports.
The agroholding noted that to update the number of pigs, 500 purebred pedigree sows of Danish Pig Genetics genetics were purchased from the supplier Breeders of Denmark A/S (Denmark). They are expected to be delivered to the pig farm in May. The volume of investments in the pig breeding program amounted to several hundred thousand euros (the specific amount was not disclosed).
The agricultural holding estimates that with the help of 500 purebred sows, KSG Agro will be able to produce 4000 F-1 hybrid sows by 2025. They are considered the most stable, have high reproductive efficiency and are able to produce high-quality piglets that will later turn into valuable fattening animals.
“In the difficult conditions of livestock business development during the war, its efficiency is of utmost importance, which can be increased by rejuvenating the herd. That is why this year we are implementing a large-scale program to renew the pig population with products from leading international producers of purebred pig genetics, including the Danish Breeders of Denmark A/S. In general, by 2025, we plan to increase the efficiency of pig breeding at our pig farm by at least 15%,” explained Sergiy Kasyanov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of KSG Agro.
KSG Agro, a vertically integrated holding company, is engaged in pig production, as well as the production, storage, processing and sale of grains and oilseeds. Its land bank in Dnipropetrovska and Khersonska oblasts is about 21 thousand hectares.
According to the agricultural holding, it is one of the top five pork producers in Ukraine. In 2023, it launched a “network-centric” strategy, which will shift from developing a large location to a number of smaller pig farms located in different regions of Ukraine.
In the first quarter of 2024, KSG Agro agricultural holding decreased its net profit by 37% to $0.96 million on a 2% decrease in revenue to $5.02 million. Its EBITDA decreased by 2% to $1.83 million.
