The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecast for developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region in 2025 to 4.7% from the 4.9% expected in April.
The GDP growth estimate for next year has been lowered to 4.6% from 4.7%.
“The downward revision reflects expectations of weaker exports amid higher US import tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domestic demand,” the ADB said in a report.
The outlook for the Asia-Pacific region could be further undermined by escalating US tariffs and trade tensions, experts say. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and lead to higher energy prices, as well as a more serious than expected deterioration in China’s real estate market.
“The economic outlook has deteriorated amid rising risks and global uncertainty,” said Albert Park, chief economist at the ADB. “Economies in the region should continue to strengthen their fundamentals and promote open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth.”
Inflation in developing Asia-Pacific countries is projected to continue slowing amid lower oil prices and high agricultural production, which will ease pressure on food prices. The ADB forecasts inflation at 2% this year and 2.1% in 2026, compared with April estimates of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
The bank’s analysts still expect China’s GDP to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% next year. Inflation this year is expected to be 0.2% (in April it was predicted to be 0.4%), and in 2026 – 0.4% (0.7%).
South Korea’s economy will grow by 0.8% this year, while previously a 1.5% increase was expected. The growth estimate for 2026 has been lowered to 1.6% from 1.9%.
India’s GDP is forecast to grow by 6.5% this year and 6.7% next year. The previous forecast predicted growth of 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively.
The ADB still expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.
The ADB was established in 1966. Its shareholders are 69 countries, 49 of which are located in the Asian region.
The bank considers 46 of these countries to be developing Asian countries.
The Asian Development Bank will provide $250 million in policy interventions to support the Government of Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen the institutional framework for climate transition, enhance integration and alignment of climate change adaptation priorities, and accelerate climate change mitigation measures.
The Climate Transition Acceleration Program will support the Government of Uzbekistan in three reform areas: strengthening institutions and public financial management; enhancing climate resilience in water and land management, agriculture, and social protection systems; and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy in sectors such as transport and energy.
This program, which is ADB’s first programmatic response to climate change in Central Asia, is in line with the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the 2030 Strategic Framework for the Transition to a Green Economy, and ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy for Uzbekistan 2024-2028.
“The program prioritizes decarbonizing the economy and building resilience to natural disasters and climate change, while supporting vulnerable populations,” said Evgeny Zhukov, ADB’s Director General for Central and West Asia. “Uzbekistan is among the world’s most energy-intensive economies, so the program will support the government’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 35 percent by 2030. The reduction will be achieved through the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency.”
The Asian Development Bank has approved two loans to Uzbekistan totaling $400 million to implement large-scale reforms in the energy sector aimed at improving its efficiency and competitiveness, as well as developing the country’s financial markets.
ADB’s Director General for Central and West Asia, Evgeny Zhukov, said that the reforms supported by these programs will help create an enabling environment for regulators and companies to play their part in stimulating development by creating reliable domestic financial markets and meeting energy needs while fighting climate change.
ADB will provide $300 million to reform Uzbekistan’s energy sector, including creating a more effective governance structure, improving legislation, and attracting private investment.
To develop Uzbekistan’s financial market, ADB will provide $100 million to implement regulatory and institutional reforms aimed at improving market conditions to optimize financial transactions and services, and to increase supply and demand side measures to grow capital markets.
Uzbekistan joined ADB in 1995, and since then, the bank has provided $12.5 billion in loans, grants, and technical assistance to the country.
