In its August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for the harvest of Ukrainian corn in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) compared to July by 5 million tons – up to 30 million tons from 25 million tons, and its export estimate has been raised by 3.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons from 9 million tons.
According to a report on the website of the US Department of Agriculture, the estimate of domestic corn consumption in Ukraine has been increased by 1 million tons – from 9.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons.
In the new forecast, the agency also increased the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY by 1 million tons – up to 11 million tons from 10 million tons, while the assessment of its harvest remained at the same level – 19.5 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for its domestic consumption in Ukraine was also left at the same level of 10.2 million tons.
In addition, the forecast for carry-over stocks of wheat at the end of the current marketing year has been reduced – from 5.24 million tons to 4.24 million tons compared to 5.84 million tons at its beginning.
According to the report, in general, the forecast for the feed grain harvest in Ukraine for 2022/23 MY was increased by 5.7 million tons – up to 37.46 million tons from 31.76 million tons, and its export – by 3.5 million tons, up to 14 .33 million tons from 10.83 million tons.
As reported, since the beginning of MY 2022/2023, Ukraine has exported 2.21 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 2.1 times less than in the previous MY. The country supplied to foreign markets 1.45 million tons of corn (26.1% more than in 2021/2022 MY), 562 thousand tons of wheat (3.2 times less), 192 thousand tons of barley (8.4 times less) and 5.1 thousand tons of flour (3.2 times less).
Turkey plans to lease land from other countries for crop production, which will help the country overcome the food crisis caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Turkey is considering leasing agricultural land in 10 countries, including Ukraine, Latin America and Africa, Turkish Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Vahit Kirişci told Türkiye.
“Part of the negotiations with 10 countries, including Ukraine and some countries of Latin America and Africa, ended with an agreement, and contacts with some of them continue. Agricultural products that cannot be produced in Turkey for climatic reasons will be grown on the leased lands or the production of which is insufficient,” the publication said.
It is specified that Turkish private business will also be involved in projects on leased lands. For example, in Sudan, Turkey will grow pineapples, mangoes, avocados, rapeseed, sunflowers, corn, cotton, sesame, sugarcane and alfalfa, the production of which is insufficient in Turkey.
Türkiye specifies that the leased areas will focus on the cultivation of plants that can be used in the production of animal feed. In addition, it is planned to establish the production of wheat there, which will be processed in Turkey and then exported in the form of biscuits, pasta and bulgur.
“We want to bring modern agriculture there. We want to produce in untouched agricultural areas. There are very serious untouched areas, especially in southern Africa. We are able to grow plants in these regions,” the Turkish minister was quoted as saying.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its report for June published on Friday increased the forecast for Ukrainian corn crop for trade year (TY) 2022/23 by 5 million tonnes compared to the forecast a month ago, to 25 million tonnes, while keeping the export estimate at the level of 9 million tonnes.
U.S. experts increased the forecast for carryovers for 2022/23 TY by 4 million tonnes, to 12.07 million tonnes compared to 6.77 million tonnes for 2021/22 TY.
In addition, USDA raised the estimate of domestic consumption in 2022/23 TY by 1.5 million tonnes, to 10.7 million tonnes.
According to the report, in general, the forecast for the feed grain harvest in Ukraine for 2022/23 TY has been increased by 5.2 million tonnes, to 31.76 million tonnes, although at the same time, the export estimate has been reduced by 0.2 million tonnes, to 10.83 million tonnes.
U.S. experts have increased the forecast of feed grain carryovers following the results of 2022/23 TY by 3.9 million tonnes, to 13.06 million tonnes compared to 7.77 million tonnes at its beginning.
In addition, USDA raised the estimate of domestic consumption of feed grains in 2022/23 TY by 1.5 million tonnes, to 15.65 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recalled that in 2020/21 TY, the wheat harvest in Ukraine amounted to 25.42 million tonnes, and exports reached 16.85 million tonnes. According to its estimates, in 2021/22 TY, with a crop that has grown to 33.01 million tonnes, exports will increase to 19 million tonnes, and carryovers – from 1.51 to 5.61 million tonnes. In addition, U.S. experts expect domestic wheat consumption in Ukraine to grow to 10 million tonnes in 2021/22 TY from 8.7 million tonnes in the previous TY due to livestock.
As for corn, according to the report, in the past 2020/21 TY, its harvest in Ukraine was 30.3 million tonnes, and exports – 23.86 million tonnes. According to USDA estimates, in this ending trade year, with a corn crop that has grown to 42.13 million tonnes, its exports will decrease to 23 million tonnes, and carryovers will jump from 0.83 to 6.77 million tonnes. In addition, U.S. experts expect domestic corn consumption in Ukraine to grow to 13.2 million tonnes in 2021/22 TY from 7.1 million tonnes in the previous TY, also due to livestock.
In general, the feed grain harvest in Ukraine in 2020/21 TY, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, was 39.59 million tonnes, and exports were 28.15 million tonnes. According to USDA estimates, in this ending TY, with a coarse grain harvest that has grown to 53.51 million tonnes, it will increase only to 29.06 million tonnes, and carryovers will jump from 1.65 to 7.77 million tonnes. In addition, the experts expect in 2021/22 TY an increase in domestic consumption of coarse grains in Ukraine to 18.37 million tonnes from 12.41 million tonnes in the previous TY, also due to livestock.
The average level of provision of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises with mineral fertilizers for spring field work as of January 28, 2022 was 22%, having increased by 11% over the period of January 20 through January 28, according to a presentation on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Friday.
According to the ministry, it does not yet have data on fertilizer stocks in six regions: Zakarpattia, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy, Kherson and Cherkasy.
Kharkiv (65% of the total demand) and Zaporizhia regions (57%) are best provided for the upcoming sowing season, followed by Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk (40% each), Kirovohrad and Khmelnytsky (29% each), Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr (26% each), Ternopil (25%), Donetsk (24%), Dnipropetrovsk (20%), Mykolaiv and Odesa (17% each), Volyn (14%), Poltava (12%), Chernihiv (10%), Rivne ( 6%) and Luhansk (4%) regions.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the November report increased the forecast for the export of Ukrainian wheat in 2021/22 (July-June) by 0.5 million tonnes compared to the previous month – from 23.5 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes, while maintaining the estimate of its harvest at the level of data for October – 33 million tonnes.The projected world export of wheat will be a record 203.2 million tonnes (3.5 million tonnes more than the USDA data in October), mainly due to the growth of its exports from the EU, India, Russia and Ukraine.In the November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also kept the forecast for the corn harvest in 2021/22 at 38 million tonnes for Ukraine, its exports at 31.5 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the report for August improved the forecast for the export of Ukrainian wheat in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 2.5 million tonnes compared to the forecast in July, to 23.5 million tonnes.
The forecast for wheat harvest in Ukraine in the new marketing year has been increased by 3 million tonnes compared to the July forecast, to a record 33 million tonnes. As noted in the USDA, this figure has been increased due to the expansion of the area under this crop, as well as due to its higher yield this season.
In the August report, the USDA also improved the forecast for the corn crop and its exports from Ukraine in 2021/2022 MY by 1.5 million tonnes compared to the July forecast. Thus, corn production is expected to grow from 37.5 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes, its export – from 30.5 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes. As explained, the forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine has been increased, as the reduction in acreage under this crop is more than offset by an increase in its yield prospects.
As reported, since the beginning of 2021/2022 MY and as of August 6, 2021, Ukraine has exported 3.63 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 12% more than on the same date of the previous MY. It also exported 1.31 million tonnes of barley (23.2% more compared to the same date in 2020/2021MY), 1.25 million tonnes of wheat (a quarter less), 1.05 million tonnes of corn (2.1 times more), 13,500 tonnes of flour (1.6 times less).
