After Azerbaijan established control over the former Nagorno-Karabakh, the Transcaucasus region entered a new era, where the political and economic prospects of the countries of the region became a subject of discussion in the international arena. In light of this, experts from various countries are analyzing the current situation and trying to predict the future of relations between the countries in the region. A new video published on the YouTube channel “Experts club” was devoted to this very topic, in which Azerbaijani military analyst, leading expert of the analytical center “STEM” Agil Rustamzadeh and the founder of the Kiev analytical center “Experts club”, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin shared their opinion on the situation.
Military-political aspect
The experts emphasize the importance of the reached mutual understanding on the Karabakh issue.
“The resolution of the conflict has created a basis for the resumption of diplomatic dialog and economic cooperation between the countries of the Transcaucasus. Azerbaijan’s confrontation with Armenia is conditioned not only by the Karabakh conflict, the point is that those people who created this geopolitical paradigm were engaged in shaping the worldview of the Armenian population. A part of the Armenian population still believes that they once had a state that included the territories of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia. With the emergence of Western institutions and the change of Armenians’ views, they begin to realize that enmity with such a geopolitical player as Turkey is a dead-end way of the country’s development. It is a way to nowhere, especially when these countries have no territorial claims to you, but you have territorial claims to your neighbors,” Rustamzadeh stressed.
The expert also notes that the signing of a possible peace treaty will give Armenia an impetus to move to a new level of development, will allow it to become not an object but a subject of international politics.
“I meet such an opinion both in Azerbaijan and Turkish colleagues. It is that under certain changes Turkey and Azerbaijan can become the guarantor of Armenia’s territorial integrity. Therefore, I believe that with the pragmatism shown by the Armenian people, the government and the political elite of Armenia, Armenia has chances to become a pro-Western democratic country,” Rustamzadeh said.
In his opinion, in order to ensure long-term stability, it is necessary to analyze all aspects of the conflict and its consequences for regional security.
Economic aspect
Maxim Urakin emphasized the economic sphere of relations between the countries of the region.
“Economy and politics are closely linked, and trade relations between the countries of the Transcaucasus play an important role in shaping the political landscape of the region,” Urakin noted.
The expert also drew attention to how export destinations affect the countries’ political preferences.
“Most of Azerbaijan and Iran’s exports are directed to Europe and Asia, while Turkey’s exports are much more diversified,” the economist emphasized.
Urakin also analyzed each country’s exports and their trade relations in detail, emphasizing the interconnectedness of economic and political factors in the region.
Development Prospects
Rustamzadeh and Urakin agree that further sustainable development of the region requires further work to resolve the remaining conflict situations and increase economic cooperation between the countries.
“Restoring trust and strengthening economic ties between the countries of the Transcaucasus will contribute to the creation of a favorable climate for investment and growth of the regional economy,” Rustamzadeh concluded.
You can learn more about the prospects of development of the Transcaucasus after the end of the Karabakh conflict from the video on the Experts club channel at the link:
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ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, CAUCASUS, KARABAKH, NAGORNY_KARABAKH, RUSTAMZADEH, URAKIN, WAR
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that a feasibility study (feasibility study) of the project of laying a power transmission line along the bottom of the Black Sea, which envisages supplying “green” energy from Azerbaijan to Europe via Georgia, will be submitted by November.
“In December last year, an agreement was signed between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary and Romania, certified by the European Commission, on the construction of an integrated “green” power transmission line from Azerbaijan to Europe along the bottom of the Black Sea. The work on the feasibility study has already started. We expect it to be presented probably in September-October,” Aliyev said in Shusha.
On December 17, 2022, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed a strategic partnership agreement in Bucharest on the construction of Black Sea Energy submarine electric cable with a capacity of 1,000 MW and a length of 1,195 km. The cable will be designed to supply “green” electricity generated in Azerbaijan through Georgia and the Black Sea to Romania for subsequent transportation to Hungary and the rest of Europe.
In June, it was decided that Bulgaria would join the project.
The laying of the cable will take 3-4 years.
The European Commission plans to provide 2.3 billion euros for laying the cable, which will be the longest in the world.
Azerbaijan reduced associated petroleum gas production 2.9% year-on-year in Q1 2023 to 3.809 billion cubic meters, an oil and gas market source told Interfax.
The total included 985.81 million cubic meters of saleable gas, down 27.3%.
Associated gas accounted for 31.3% of Azerbaijan’s total gas production. Natural gas accounted for the remaining 68.7% and totaled 8.35 bcm.
Gas condensate production fell 1.5% to 1.289 million tonnes and accounted for 16.7% of total oil production. The remaining 83.3% or 6.434 million tonnes was crude oil.
The bulk of associated gas is produced at the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) fields, and most of it is re-injected into the reservoir to maintain pressure. The rest is supplied to State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) free of charge. Most of the condensate is produced at the Shah Deniz field, from where it is exported by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
In January-March 2023, Ukraine exported 5.3 thousand tons of frozen cattle meat worth $20.6 million.
This is evidenced by the data of the State Customs Service.
The main buyers of Ukrainian frozen cattle meat during the first quarter of this year were China (69%), Azerbaijan (9.8%) and Uzbekistan (7.3%).
Imports of frozen cattle meat during the first three months of 2023 amounted to 369 tons. In monetary terms, it cost Ukraine $1.6 million.
Most of all, Ukraine bought frozen cattle meat in Lithuania (45.1%), Brazil (40.6%) and Austria (13.4%).
As reported, global beef prices rose in March.
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aikhan Hajizada said Azerbaijan provided Ukraine with 50 generators and 45 power transformers as humanitarian aid.
“Azerbaijan continues to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 45 power transformers and 50 generators provided by Azerenerji were sent to Ukraine. As of today, Azerbaijan has provided more than 30 million manats (more than $50 million) in aid to the needy population,” Hajizada tweeted on Sunday.
Azerenerji is the largest producer of electricity in Azerbaijan.
Exchange rate according to the Ministry of Finance on December 10: $0.59/AZN, AZN1.7/$1.
Citizens of Ukraine who arrived in Azerbaijan will be able to stay in the country indefinitely, said Rufat Ibrahimov, chief of the Migration Control Department of the State Migration Service of Azerbaijan, apa.az reported.
“Period of stay is again 90 days. However, given the situation, expulsion does not apply after the period expiration. That is, citizens of Ukraine after 90 days can stay in our country,” Ibrahimov was quoted as saying by apa.az.
