As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged due to complicated and expensive logistics, while the corn market is suffering from slow export growth and anticipates a seasonal increase in supply, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
The price of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat on DAP-Danube terms stood at $172–178 per metric ton on September 21.
“The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged—exports remain costly and complicated due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, and the logistics situation is unlikely to improve in the near future,” Barva Invest noted.
According to the company, the most active export routes for Ukrainian wheat remain the Romanian port of Constanta and the Vadul Siret border crossing. At the same time, exports through Ukrainian Danube ports remain extremely difficult due to constant attacks by Russia.
On the Ukrainian corn market, the DAP-Danube price on September 21 stood at $170 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market continues to suffer from a lack of its usual export pace, while at the same time anticipating a seasonal increase in supply. Logistics are expensive and complicated, which does not facilitate the conclusion of new deals,” Barva Invest noted.
According to Experts Club, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 31.8 million metric tons, despite a significant revision to the global corn harvest estimate.
According to the USDA’s September WASDE report, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports has also remained unchanged at 22 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons, of which 5.5 million metric tons will be used for feed.
At the same time, the U.S. agency raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks by 0.6 million metric tons—from 4.86 million metric tons in August to 5.46 million metric tons in September.
Opening stocks were also revised upward—from 2.25 million metric tons to 2.85 million metric tons. Corn imports are expected to be minimal—about 10,000 metric tons.
The situation on the global market is unfolding differently. The USDA has lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year by nearly 8 million metric tons—from 1,298.88 million metric tons to 1,290.95 million metric tons.
The forecast for global corn trade was reduced by a much smaller margin—from 210.48 million metric tons to 210.08 million metric tons—and the forecast for ending stocks was lowered from 274.66 million metric tons to 272.10 million metric tons.
The main decline in production is linked, in particular, to worsening forecasts for the United States, India, Kenya, and Russia. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were raised.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA September Report
Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.
The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.
The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.
The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.
In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—at $185 and $175 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers in its weekly market review.
According to the broker, Ukraine exported approximately 612,700 metric tons of wheat in August. The top destinations were Spain (118,200 metric tons), Egypt (116,100 metric tons), and Algeria (78,100 metric tons). These three countries accounted for about 51% of August’s exports.
From September 1–3, Ukraine exported about 116,800 metric tons of wheat, or nearly 39,000 metric tons per day, compared to an average of about 20,000 metric tons per day in August. Destinations included Tunisia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Israel.
The price of corn also remained unchanged over the week: on a CPT Odessa basis, it stood at $185 per metric ton, and on an FCA Chop basis, at $225 per metric ton.
In August, Ukraine exported about 300,000 metric tons of corn. During the first three days of September, corn exports totaled about 69,200 metric tons. The main export destinations were Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.
Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”
Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.
Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.
