In its November forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 2 million metric tons compared to October—to 20 million metric tons—while maintaining its production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons.
The relevant data is presented in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the report, the reduction in projected exports is accompanied by a significant increase in expected corn stocks in Ukraine.
Specifically, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year from 5.53 million to 7.53 million metric tons, or by 36.2%.
For comparison, corn stocks at the start of the current marketing year stood at 2.92 million metric tons. Thus, according to the USDA’s forecast, they could increase approximately 2.6-fold by the end of the season.
U.S. analysts estimate domestic consumption of Ukrainian corn at 7.2 million metric tons, including 5.5 million metric tons for feed purposes. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the October forecast.
The USDA cites restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to foreign markets as the main reason for the downward revision of its export estimate.
The report notes that the war in the Black Sea region and the associated logistical difficulties continue to affect international grain trade.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for corn trade in the 2026/27 marketing year from 210.72 million to 209.38 million metric tons.
In addition to Ukraine, export forecasts have been reduced for the United States and India. At the same time, an increase in shipments is expected from Argentina, for which the export estimate has been raised from 38 million to 40 million metric tons.
The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter with a projected volume of 83.19 million metric tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million metric tons.
With a forecast of 20 million metric tons, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading suppliers of this crop.
The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year at approximately 1.292 billion metric tons, with ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons.
The growth in corn stocks in Ukraine is occurring against the backdrop of a stable harvest forecast; however, actual export volumes will depend on the operation of seaports, rail and road logistics, as well as demand in international markets.
For corn, the marketing year in Ukraine runs from October to September of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 23 (PDF).
In its November forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 2 million metric tons compared to October—to 20 million metric tons—while maintaining its production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons.
The relevant data are presented in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the report, the reduction in projected exports is accompanied by a significant increase in expected corn stocks in Ukraine.
Specifically, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year from 5.53 million to 7.53 million metric tons, or by 36.2%.
For comparison, corn stocks at the start of the current marketing year stood at 2.92 million metric tons. Thus, according to the USDA’s forecast, they could increase approximately 2.6-fold by the end of the season.
U.S. analysts estimate domestic consumption of Ukrainian corn at 7.2 million metric tons, including 5.5 million metric tons for feed purposes. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the October forecast.
The USDA cites restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to foreign markets as the main reason for the downward revision of its export estimate.
The report notes that the war in the Black Sea region and the associated logistical difficulties continue to affect international grain trade.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for corn trade in the 2026/27 marketing year from 210.72 million to 209.38 million metric tons.
In addition to Ukraine, export forecasts have been reduced for the United States and India. At the same time, an increase in shipments is expected from Argentina, for which the export estimate has been raised from 38 million to 40 million metric tons.
The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter with a projected volume of 83.19 million metric tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million metric tons.
With a forecast of 20 million metric tons, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading suppliers of this crop.
The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year at approximately 1.292 billion metric tons, with ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons.
The growth in corn stocks in Ukraine is occurring against the backdrop of a stable harvest forecast; however, actual export volumes will depend on the operation of seaports, rail and road logistics, as well as demand in international markets.
For corn, the marketing year in Ukraine runs from October to September of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 23 (PDF).
In its November report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for grain exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 3 million metric tons: wheat—from 12.5 million metric tons to 11.5 million metric tons; corn—from 22 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons.
According to the report on the agency’s website, the wheat harvest estimate was simultaneously increased from 26 million metric tons to 26.5 million metric tons, and the estimate for other grains was raised from 7.29 million metric tons to 7.69 million metric tons, while the corn estimate remained unchanged at 31.8 million metric tons.
Accordingly, U.S. experts have raised the forecast for wheat carryover stocks at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year from 6.1 million metric tons to 6.3 million metric tons, compared with 2 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year; for corn—from 5.53 million metric tons to 7.53 million metric tons, compared with 2.92 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year—and for other grains—from 3.17 million metric tons to 3.57 million metric tons, compared with 1.78 million metric tons at the start of the marketing year.
For Russia, the estimate for wheat exports was reduced from 40 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons, and for other grains—from 7.18 million metric tons to 7.03 million metric tons.
According to the updated USDA report, the estimate for global wheat trade this marketing year has been lowered by 0.31 million metric tons to 208.66 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine will be largely offset by increased exports from Australia and Argentina.
“The conflict in the Black Sea region continues to result in both countries’ shipment volumes remaining below their long-term averages, despite efforts to use alternative ports and modes of transport,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted.
Projected ending global stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year have increased by 4.8 million metric tons and now stand at 280.8 million metric tons, largely driven by increases in Ukraine, Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan, the report states.
It also notes that global barley production increased by 1.0 million metric tons to 161.1 million metric tons, primarily reflecting growth in Australia and Ukraine, which is partially offset by a decline in production in Russia.
The estimate for global corn trade volume has been reduced by 1.34 million metric tons to 210.72 million metric tons, as the decline in exports from Ukraine, the United States, and India will be largely offset by an increase in exports from Argentina.
The USDA expects global ending stocks of feed grains to increase by 2.9 million metric tons to 316.2 million metric tons, primarily reflecting higher corn stocks in Ukraine and China.
As for global soybean production, the estimate has been revised downward by 0.2 million metric tons to 442.5 million metric tons, mainly due to lower production in Ukraine, South Africa, the EU, and Mexico. At the same time, the forecast for soybean trade has been revised upward by 0.55 million metric tons—to 192.55 million metric tons—due to increased exports from the United States and Argentina, which will fully offset the decline in exports from Ukraine, Uruguay, and South Africa.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 10.78 million metric tons of corn from 1.72 million hectares, representing 37.5% of the projected area, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
According to the ministry, the average corn yield reached 62.8 centners per hectare. At the same stage of last year’s harvest campaign, based on preliminary data as of October 31, 2025, it stood at 61.5 centners per hectare.
Thus, the corn yield increased by approximately 2.1%.
At the same time, the pace of the harvest remains slower than last year. By the end of October 2025, corn had been harvested from 40% of the planted area, whereas as of November 3 of this year, only 37.5% had been harvested.
Over the past week, farmers increased the gross corn harvest by approximately 2.9 million metric tons. As of October 27, 7.89 million metric tons had been harvested, while by early November, this figure had risen to 10.78 million metric tons.
The weekly increase in the gross harvest was about 36.6%.
At the same time, more than 2.86 million hectares of corn, or 62.5% of the projected area, remain unharvested.
Further results of this crop’s harvest will have a decisive impact on Ukraine’s total grain harvest in 2026, as the harvests of wheat, barley, and peas have already been completed.
Corn remains one of Ukraine’s main export grain crops. It is used in the production of compound feed, in the food industry, and as a raw material for industrial processing.
As of November 3, the gross harvest of grain and legume crops in Ukraine stood at 44.62 million metric tons, or 75.1% of the projected area.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, report dated November 3, 2026; Ministry of Economy, harvest results as of October 31, 2025.
As of November 3, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 10.78 million tonnes of corn from an area of 1.72 million hectares, representing 37.5% of the projected area, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine reported.
According to the ministry, the average corn yield reached 62.8 centners per hectare. At a comparable stage of last year’s harvesting campaign, according to preliminary data as of October 31, 2025, it stood at 61.5 centners per hectare.
Thus, corn yields increased by approximately 2.1%.
At the same time, the pace of harvesting remains slower than last year. By the end of October 2025, corn had been harvested from 40% of the area, whereas as of November 3 this year, only 37.5% had been harvested.
Over the past week, farmers increased the gross corn harvest by approximately 2.9 million tonnes. As of October 27, 7.89 million tonnes had been harvested, while by the beginning of November this figure had risen to 10.78 million tonnes.
The weekly increase in the gross harvest amounted to approximately 36.6%.
Meanwhile, more than 2.86 million hectares of corn, or 62.5% of the projected area, remain unharvested.
The subsequent results of harvesting this crop will have a decisive impact on Ukraine’s total grain harvest in 2026, as the harvesting of wheat, barley and peas has already been completed.
Corn remains one of Ukraine’s main export grain crops. It is used in compound feed production, the food industry and as a raw material for industrial processing.
The gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine as of November 3 amounted to 44.62 million tonnes, with harvesting completed on 75.1% of the projected area.
Sources: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, report dated November 3, 2026; Ministry of Economy, harvest results as of October 31, 2025.
As of October 27, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 7.89 million metric tons of corn from an area of 1.33 million hectares, which is 23.9% less than as of October 31 of last year, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
According to the ministry, corn harvesting has been completed on 29% of the projected area. The average yield is 59.5 centners per hectare, compared to 61.5 centners per hectare last year, representing a decrease of approximately 3.3%.
As of October 31, 2025, farmers had already harvested 10.36 million metric tons of corn from 1.68 million hectares.
Thus, the current shortfall in gross harvest is primarily due to the smaller area harvested, rather than solely to a decline in yield.
The area of threshed corn in 2026 is currently 21.3% less than last year’s figure, provided for comparison.
At the same time, the pace of harvesting has accelerated significantly over the past week. The gross corn harvest has increased from 5.4 million to 7.9 million metric tons, or by approximately 2.5 million metric tons.
Despite the acceleration in harvesting, a significant portion of the crop remains in the fields. By the end of October, farmers are expected to harvest approximately 71% of the projected corn acreage.
Therefore, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the crop’s gross production based on preliminary statistics.
Corn is one of Ukraine’s main agricultural export crops and an important raw material for the animal feed industry, starch and syrup production, and other processing sectors.
Its production volume affects the agricultural sector’s export potential, the utilization of transportation infrastructure, and the supply of grain on the domestic market.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food also reported that the total harvest of grains and legumes in Ukraine reached 41.7 million metric tons from 72% of the projected area.
Meanwhile, the harvest of wheat, barley, and peas has already been fully completed. Their gross harvests exceed last year’s figures by 15.2%, 23.2%, and 26.2%, respectively.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, operational statistics as of October 27, 2026.
