The corn market is gradually shifting its focus to the new harvest, last year’s grain has almost lost its liquidity, and there are practically no real deals with it, At the same time, Europe is showing steady interest in
Ukrainian products, and demand from importers remains high, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The new corn harvest is valued on the market in a wide range of $197-203 per ton. Some traders are already offering higher prices — $205-206 on a CPT-port basis with deliveries in October-November. Demand from importers is active, particularly from Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands, with deliveries in November-December. The EU is facing serious yield problems. In France, the first threshing showed only 3-4 tons/ha. Other corn producers — Romania, Hungary, and Poland — are facing similar difficulties, forcing the EU to increase imports from the projected 18-19 million tons to 22-23 million tons, and Ukraine looks to be a key supplier here,” analysts noted.
According to their information, Ukrainian exporters have already sold about 4 million tons of the new harvest to importers with deliveries in November-December. However, there may be a shortage on the market due to weather conditions, which will further stimulate the growth of purchase prices.
“Traders may have to raise prices, but no significant growth is expected. One of the determining factors will be the progress of the harvesting campaign. Due to the delay in vegetation, the first significant batches of corn from the center and north will arrive only in the second half of October. We can predict indicative prices of $220 CPT port in October. However, during this period, American corn will actively enter the market. Its volume will significantly exceed demand, which will put serious pressure on prices in October-December. Therefore, in November-January, the market is likely to stabilize at $220-230 CPT port per ton, which is in line with seasonal patterns,” Pusk concluded.
The sales rates in the season-2024 were significantly higher compared to the previous year, especially for corn and sunflower, Agrohub reported based on the results of two waves of research on the efficiency and effectiveness of growing the main crops of the season-2024.
“At the time of the first wave of the study (end of January 2025), the percentage of sales of these crops was more than 60%, while at the end of January 2024, only 25% of corn and 27% of sunflower were sold,” the researchers said.
According to the study, sunflower was sold almost completely, which was due to a decrease in its share in the crop structure and high demand from the processing industry, as well as an increase in the number of oil extraction plants. For export-oriented crops, a stable sea export corridor plays an important role in shaping the sales rate: despite the threats and shelling of port infrastructure, it remained the most effective channel for selling products, analysts say.
The positive price situation was the main factor behind the growth of profitability of agricultural production in 2024, the report says. Thus, the break-even point decreased in many crops, while the profitability indicators increased. According to the results of the season-2024, the average forecast EBITDA for such crops as winter wheat, rapeseed and barley, as well as sunflower and corn amounted to $402 per 1 ha, which exceeded last year’s forecast level of $94 per 1 ha, i.e. 4.3 times, Agrohub calculated.
The analysts reminded that the forecast EBITDA is an expected estimate of profitability per hectare, calculated on the basis of current selling prices of already sold products and forecast prices for the residues.
Experts identify sunflower, corn, and rapeseed as the crops with the highest expected profitability in the 2025 season.
Despite the fact that in the 2024 season the yields of the studied crops decreased, the positive price dynamics during the year allowed not only to maintain but also to increase the profitability of crops. The main reason for the decrease in yields was drought and heat in the central, southern and eastern regions. Soil temperatures in summer reached above +60°C, and local rains failed to save the situation. In the West, where there is traditionally more rainfall, the yield decline was not significant, the researchers emphasized.
In addition, analysts drew attention to an interesting trend in the dynamics of costs, which has been observed for two seasons in a row. In particular, the costs of growing decreased slightly – within 8% for sunflower and rapeseed, mainly due to the reduction of fertilizer costs. At the same time, crop protection costs for sunflower and corn decreased by 11% due to dry weather conditions. Lower yields per hectare and dry weather conditions resulted in lower costs for transportation and grain processing, as the average moisture content of harvested corn in the 2024 season was 16.7% compared to 19.8% a year ago.
“The 2024 season illustrated how the agricultural business in Ukraine is learning to adapt to complex challenges: from war and unstable logistics to climate change and lack of resources. Increasing profitability and efficiency in such conditions is the result of flexibility, strategic planning and proper agricultural practices,” Oksana Bobrova, Head of Agrohub Benchmarking, summarized in her statement.
The study of the first and second waves of efficiency and effectiveness indicators of the main crops of the 2024 season, conducted by Agrohub, involved 14 largest Ukrainian agricultural holdings. The total area of analysis covered 1.7 million hectares in eight macro-regions of Ukraine.
The data on crop sales in the 2024 season are based on Agrohub’s research conducted in January-May 2025 among 83 field companies with a total area of 1.7 mln ha. The area of the studied crops: sunflower – 302.5 thou hectares, corn – 363.4 thou hectares, soybeans – 411.2 thou hectares, winter wheat – 403.5 thou hectares, winter rapeseed – 169.5 thou hectares and winter barley – 18 thou hectares.
AgriAcademy, a professional online education platform for Ukrainian agribusiness, has added two new free courses for farmers, created by experts from the Astarta-Kyiv agro-industrial holding. In June 2025, new training modules dedicated to the biological characteristics of corn and corn cultivation technologies became available on the AgriAcademy platform.
Course 1: “Corn. Biological characteristics of the crop”
The aim of the course is to provide farmers with a systematic understanding of:
Course 2: “Corn. Cultivation technology”
The aim of the course is to develop practical knowledge of agricultural technologies:
Both courses were developed by Pavlo Perkhalo, an experienced agronomist with over 10 years of practice at Astarta. Methodologist Svitlana Semenyuk and interactive materials designer Olga Veiler also contributed to the development of the courses.
Like all educational products on AgriAcademy, the new courses are free, available online at any time, and include a certificate upon successful completion.
As a reminder, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and Astarta-Kyiv agricultural holding signed a partnership agreement in 2024 to develop distance learning for Ukrainian farmers.
The partnership provides for the creation of 25 online courses on the cultivation, storage, and processing of field crops.
In addition to the new training modules, previously created courses are also available on the platform: “Sunflower. Biological characteristics” and “Sunflower. Cultivation technology”.
AgriAcademy – training for Ukrainian farmers that is changing the industry
AgriAcademy is a free online training platform for agricultural workers and students of agricultural educational institutions, launched by the EBRD in December 2022 as part of its food security support program in Ukraine.
Its goal is to strengthen the competitiveness and sustainable development of agriculture, which has suffered significant losses due to the war.
Today, the platform offers 25 online courses — 300 hours of practical training in agronomy, management, technology, processing, storage, and more. Each course includes a knowledge test and certification for participants.
The platform is created and managed (including course development, study tours, etc.) with the support and funding of the EBRD, as well as:
We invite farmers to register on the platform and take practical courses at the link: https://agriacademy.org/courses-catalog
Astarta-Kyiv is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding in Ukraine, a public European company that conducts socially responsible business and produces food products for global markets.
The company was founded in 1993 by Viktor Ivanchyk, who remains its majority owner and CEO. Since 2006, Astarta’s shares have been listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Main activities:
As of July 1, 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), Ukraine exported 40.499 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, of which 2.217 mln tonnes were shipped in June, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing data from the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of June 28 last year, the total shipments were estimated at 50.553 million tons, including 3.621 million tons in June.
According to the preliminary estimates, in 2024/25 season, Ukraine exported 15.704 mln tonnes of wheat (18.3 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.318 mln tonnes of barley (2.477 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1.6 thsd tonnes), and 21.788 mln tonnes of corn (29.233 mln tonnes).
The total exports of Ukrainian flour in 2024/25 MY are estimated at 70.4 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 97.8 thsd tonnes), including 65.8 thsd tonnes of wheat (92.4 thsd tonnes).
Thus, in the season-2024/25, the grain exports were down by 19.9% in general, by 14.2% for wheat, by 6.4% for barley, by 25.5% for corn, by 28.1% for flour, including 28.8% for wheat. At the same time, in 2024/25 MY Ukraine increased rye exports by 6.8 times.
As reported, in the season-24/25, the domestic market faced the deficit of rye. Flour mills and bakeries started importing it in winter 2025. The main countries supplying rye and rye flour to Ukraine are the Baltic states and Poland. Industry associations predict that in 2025/26 MY Ukraine will face a 100% deficit of rye due to the further reduction of the production area under this crop. According to experts, this will lead to a 20% rise in bread prices.
As of June 25, Ukraine exported 40.314 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year (July-June), of which 1.942 mln tonnes were shipped since the beginning of the month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported, citing the State Customs Service.
According to the report, as of June 28 last year, the total shipments were estimated at 50.553 million tons, including 3.621 million tons in June.
At the same time, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 15.641 mln tonnes of wheat (18.3 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY), 2.318 mln tonnes of barley (2.477 mln tonnes), 10.8 thsd tonnes of rye (1.6 thsd tonnes), and 21.759 mln tonnes of corn (29.233 mln tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of June 25 is estimated at 69.7 thsd tonnes (in 2023/24 MY – 97.8 thsd tonnes), including 65.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (92.4 thsd tonnes).
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for global wheat and corn production in the 2025-2026 marketing year, with no change to its harvest forecast for Ukraine.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, the wheat harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 23 million tons, exports at 16.5 million tons, and ending stocks at 1.49 million tons. The corn harvest is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, with exports at 24 million tons and final stocks at 0.6 million tons.
At the same time, global wheat production in 2025/2026 MY will amount to 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), exports – 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons), and final stocks – 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
USDA analysts forecast global corn production in 2025/2026 MY at 1,265.98 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous season), global exports at 195.81 million tons (+0.01 million tons), and ending stocks at 275.24 million tons (-2.6 million tons).
