Ukraine exported almost 1.7 million tons of corn as of December 23, and by the end of the month the total volume will exceed 2 million tons, despite problems with shipments at the beginning of the month that slowed down the pace of exports, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
According to analysts on the UAC’s Facebook page on Thursday, corn prices are stable at $205-207 per ton on a CPT basis. They predict that corn has the potential to reach $210-215/ton in January. The key factor that may affect further price growth is weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
“The corn market is in a kind of “golden period”. In January, any importer who wants to receive supplies has to turn to Ukraine, as the US corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate the price. However, it is important to remember that in February-March we may face competitive pressure on the European market due to cheaper U.S. corn,” the experts said.
They pointed out that Ukrainian corn remains the main player on the European market, while the US actively exports to Latin America and Mexico. However, the price difference between Ukrainian and American corn on the European market is about $10 in favor of American products.
According to forecasts, in January the market will be sensitive to news about the sowing campaign of the second harvest in Brazil and the condition of crops in Argentina, where there are already problems with moisture.
“Over the past 10 years, only twice the corn market has been stable in January and February without significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the probability of getting higher prices during this period is quite high. But in April-May, corn may become a scarce commodity, which will again create preconditions for price growth,” Pusk summarized.
In November 2024, Turkey overtook Spain, the unchallenged leader, in imports of Ukrainian corn, Dmytro Solomchuk, MP, member of the Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy, said on Facebook.
“In terms of physical weight, the figures are significant – 2.5 million tons of exports in November, of which 620 thousand tons were bought by Turkey,” he wrote.
The MP noted that in November, a total of $2.3 billion worth of agricultural products were exported, of which only $512 million was corn.
As reported, on October 10, 2024, Turkey introduced quotas on imports of 1 million tons of corn and reduced the duty to 5% by the end of December 2024.
IMC Agroholding completed the corn harvest on November 17, which was the fastest time to complete the harvest of grains and oilseeds in the company over the past 10 years, the company’s press service reported.
According to the report, about 611 thsd tonnes of corn were harvested from an area of 65.7 thsd ha with a yield of 9.3 t/ha. The corn yield is also significantly higher than the national average, which, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, is 6.3 t/ha.
“The current yield cannot be called a record, although it is almost one and a half times higher than the national average, but the low moisture content of corn (17.8%) made it possible to significantly reduce the cost of grain drying and logistics, which, together with good prices, gives confidence in a good financial result,” commented Bogdan Krivitsky, Chief Operating Officer of IMC.
As reported, in the 2024 season, IMC grew spring crops on 90 thou hectares, of which 65.8 thou hectares were allocated for corn and 24.2 thou hectares for sunflower. The agricultural holding completed sunflower harvesting in the last days of September. The company produced 77.7 thousand tons of gross harvest with a yield 60% higher than the national average of 3.2 t/ha.
IMC Agro Holding is an integrated group of companies operating in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv regions (north and center of Ukraine) in the crop production, elevators and warehouses segments. The Group’s land bank is about 120 thousand hectares and storage capacity is 554 thousand tons, with the 2023 harvest of 1.002 million tons.
In 2023, IMC posted a net loss of $21.03 million compared to $1.12 million a year earlier, and its EBITDA decreased 11.3 times to $3.22 million. Revenue increased by 22.3% to $139.45 million, while the share of exports decreased to 68% from 73% a year earlier.
Agrotrade agricultural holding companies in Sumy and Chernihiv regions have completed the corn harvesting campaign on an area of about 6.5 thousand hectares, the company’s press service reported on its Facebook page.
According to the report, corn in the 2024 season had high quality indicators, in particular, lower than usual moisture content. It is at the baseline level or slightly (by 1-2%) higher than that. As for the yield of this grain, it was higher than planned.
“The price of corn on the market is much higher than last year and continues to grow. Given this, the crop is economically attractive this year,” said Oleksandr Ovsyanyk, Director of Agrotrade’s Agricultural Department.
He predicts that the market will react to such price trends and next year Ukrainian farmers will again allocate a significant part of their fields to corn.
Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding company with a full agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70 thousand hectares of land in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions. Its main crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a simultaneous storage capacity of 570 thousand tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn and sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20 thousand tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand Agroseeds on the market.
Vsevolod Kozhemiako is the founder and CEO of Agrotrade.
Ukraine and China are working to open the Chinese market for Ukrainian peas, poultry, corn, and fish products, the press service of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection reports.
“China is an important market for national exporters of agricultural products, so on behalf of the head of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection, Serhiy Tkachuk, the service and the competent authority of China continue to interact on a regular basis. Our goal is to open seven new markets. This is a long process of coordination, but step by step we are succeeding,” said Oleh Osiyan, First Deputy Head of the State Consumer Service, at a meeting with representatives of the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC).
The parties discussed draft bilateral international agreements on the export of peas, wheat flour, pet food, beef, corn, poultry, and wild-caught aquatic products from Ukraine to China. Each of these documents is at a different stage of development and approval.
“Currently, the protocol on peas is at the stage of finalizing domestic approval in Ukraine, and the texts have been sent to the competent authority of China for consideration. This is one of the markets that is at the final stage of opening. After the signing of the bilateral protocol, new opportunities for pea exports will open up for Ukrainian agricultural businesses,” said Vadym Chaikovskyi, Deputy Head of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection and Chief State Phytosanitary Inspector of Ukraine.
It should be reminded that the last Ukrainian product to be granted access to the Chinese market was honey. The form of the health certificate for its export was agreed upon earlier this year.
The requirements of the countries of destination for the export of food products of animal and plant origin are published on the official web portal of the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection.
“Currently, our Chinese colleagues are considering draft protocols on the export of poultry and fish. The State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection sent its proposals on the text of the protocol in the fall. The protocol on wild-caught aquatic products has already passed domestic approval and is at the stage of final approval by the Chinese side. The texts of the protocols on beef and pet food are also undergoing the stage of internal approval,” said Volodymyr Kusturov, Deputy Head of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection and Chief State Veterinary Inspector of Ukraine.
Representatives of the State Food and Consumer Service and the GACC discussed in detail the steps for further cooperation, draft bilateral agreements, and agreed to continue active cooperation on the development of international trade between Ukraine and China.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine this marketing year by 1 million tons to 23 million tons due to a 1 million ton decrease in the harvest estimate to 26.2 million tons.
The USDA has also downgraded its estimate of global corn production to 1 billion 217.19 million tons (-1.38 million tons compared to the September forecast) and global corn exports to 190.50 million tons (-0.87 million tons).
