Wheat trade in Ukraine remains sluggish, while the corn market continues to see some activity, primarily along the western border, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
According to the firm, prices for Ukrainian wheat with an 11.5% protein content on a DAP-Danube basis stand at $166–168 per metric ton.
“An imbalance between supply and demand persists in the Ukrainian wheat market. A shortage of EU quotas, logistics at the western border booked months in advance, and the absence of panic among importers are holding back trading activity and putting downward pressure on prices,” the report states.
Quotes for Ukrainian corn on a DAP Izov basis stand at $173 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market is in the off-season and awaiting the resumption of deep-water exports. Some activity continues along the western border for both the old crop and forward contracts,” analysts note.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—$195 and $185 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“Ukrainian wheat exports in August are estimated at 500,000 metric tons, compared to the usual 2 million metric tons for this month. Russian wheat exports in August are expected to reach 2 million metric tons, compared to 4.5 million metric tons last year. The flow of Ukrainian wheat to Constanta has begun to increase but remains limited for now. Efforts are being made to compensate for the shortage of Ukrainian wheat on the global market through other exporters,” the report states.
The price of corn also remained unchanged at $190 per metric ton on a CPT Odessa basis and $220 per metric ton on an FCA Chop basis.
According to brokers, the price of sunflower seeds also remained unchanged at $440 per metric ton (including VAT) on a CPT mill basis.
At the same time, rapeseed prices at the western border rose by $5—to $550 per metric ton on an FCA Chop basis. The price of rapeseed on a CPT port basis was $500 per metric ton, and on a CPT mill basis—$485 per metric ton.
Soybean prices also remained unchanged: GMO soybeans were priced at $420 per metric ton on a CPT port basis, $435 on an FCA Chop basis, and $425 on a CPT plant basis, while non-GMO soybeans were priced at $440 per metric ton on a CPT port basis and $470 on an FCA Chop basis.
According to Spike Brokers, global corn prices rose over the week, but Ukrainian prices remained unchanged due to physical export constraints. At the same time, the highest premium in the soybean market remains in the non-GMO segment along the western border.
As of August 14, 2026, Ukraine had exported 3.093 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), which is 9.8% more than the 2.818 million metric tons exported by the same date last year.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service, total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 3.097 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 14.9%—to 1.291 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively; barley exports fell by 26.8%, to 339,000 metric tons from 463,000 metric tons, while corn exports rose by 69.6%—to 1.403 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year earlier.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
In addition, wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 48.3%, totaling 3,000 metric tons compared to 5,800 metric tons as of the same date last marketing year.
In total, as of August 14, Ukraine had exported 348,000 metric tons of grains and legumes, including 219,000 metric tons of wheat, 40,000 metric tons of barley, and 89,000 metric tons of corn.
On the Ukrainian grain and oilseed market, prices showed mixed trends over the week: wheat remained at the previous level, sunflower seed prices fell significantly, while rapeseed prices for export rose, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
According to data from analysts published on their Telegram channel, wheat with 11.5% protein on CPT Odessa terms was priced at $195 per metric ton, while feed wheat was priced at $185 per metric ton. On FCA Chop terms, wheat traded mainly at EUR180–185/metric ton for loading onto a European train.
The price of corn on CPT Odessa terms fell by $5 per metric ton over the week to $190 per metric ton, while on FCA Chop terms it remained at $220 per metric ton. The new October–March crop was trading at EUR188–193 per metric ton FCA Chop at the western border.
The price of sunflower seeds on CPT mill terms fell by $110 per metric ton over the week to $440 per metric ton. According to the broker, the market continues to transition to pricing for the new crop, and the external rise in prices for soybean oil and crude oil has not yet been reflected in Ukrainian raw material prices.
In the rapeseed market, the price on CPT port terms remained at $500 per metric ton, while on FCA Chop terms it rose by $5 per metric ton to $550 per metric ton. At the same time, the price of rapeseed for domestic processing fell by $15/metric ton to $485/metric ton. Thus, the difference between the FCA Chop export price and the price for domestic processing is $65/metric ton.
As of August 10, Ukraine had harvested 3.22 million metric tons of rapeseed from 1.191 million hectares—or 89% of the planted area—with a yield of 2.71 metric tons per hectare. Current pricing is determined by the distribution of supply among the western border, ports, and domestic processing.
The price of GMO soybeans on CPT port terms was $420 per metric ton, FCA Chop – $435 per metric ton, and non-GMO soybeans – $440 per metric ton and $470 per metric ton, respectively. The price of GMO soybeans for domestic processing rose by $5 per metric ton over the week, reaching $425 per metric ton.
“Thus, sunflower seeds are adjusting to the purchase price of the new crop; competition is intensifying in rapeseed between FCA Chop and processing; and soybeans are receiving an external boost from the CBOT and Chinese demand, which is not yet being strongly reflected in the Ukrainian physical market,” analysts note.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2026/27 season amid ongoing supply constraints from Ukraine.
In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on August 12, the forecast for U.S. corn exports was raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, or approximately 83.8 million metric tons. Compared to the July estimate, the increase amounts to about 1.9 million metric tons, or 2.3%.
The USDA explicitly attributes the increase in the U.S. export forecast to rising global demand and limited export capacity from Ukraine.
At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons—from 23 million to 22 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s corn harvest itself, on the contrary, was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—from 30 million to 31.8 million metric tons.
Thus, Ukraine may harvest more corn than the USDA expected just a month ago, but a smaller portion of the harvest will be able to reach foreign markets.
As a result, the forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks has been increased from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than 2.3 times the previous figure. At the same time, the USDA left its forecast for domestic consumption virtually unchanged.
The situation on the global market is different. The USDA raised its forecast for global corn trade in the 2026/27 season by 0.6 million metric tons—from 209.88 million to 210.48 million metric tons.
The United States is the main source of this additional supply. At the same time, the USDA lowered its export forecast not only for Ukraine but also for the European Union.
The U.S. agency also raised its forecast for EU corn imports, while estimates for purchases by China and Turkey were lowered.
The growth in U.S. exports is occurring against the backdrop of a virtually unchanged forecast for U.S. corn production. The harvest is expected to reach about 16 billion bushels and could be the second-largest in the country’s history. However, the increase in export demand will lead to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks by 137 million bushels—to 1.7 billion bushels.
The USDA also raised its forecast for the average corn price for U.S. farmers by $0.10 to $4.50 per bushel.
Consequently, difficulties with Ukrainian corn exports are already beginning to shift the global market in favor of competing suppliers. The U.S. stands to increase shipments by nearly 2 million metric tons compared to the previous forecast, while Ukraine risks accumulating significant additional domestic stockpiles.
As of August 12, 2026, Ukraine had exported, since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), 2.952 million metric tons of grains and legumes, which is 4.8% more than it exported by the same date last year, when the figure stood at 2.818 million metric tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service (SCS), total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 2.955 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago—an increase of 4.6%.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 18.3%—to 1.239 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively. Specifically, 175,000 metric tons of wheat were exported in August of this year, compared to 759,000 metric tons a year ago.
Barley exports fell by 28.1%, to 333 thousand metric tons from 463 thousand metric tons; specifically, 37 thousand metric tons of this product were shipped abroad in August, compared to 206 thousand metric tons in August 2025.
Corn exports as of the reporting date for the season increased by 66.4%, to 1.376 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year ago; in August, 68,000 metric tons of corn were shipped to other countries, compared to 184,000 metric tons in August of last year.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
Flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 54.1% to 2,800 metric tons. As of the same date last marketing year, they stood at 6.1 thousand metric tons. In grain equivalent, flour exports totaled 3.7 thousand metric tons, compared to 8.1 thousand metric tons a year earlier.
