Global wheat production in 2026 could decline by 3.8% compared to 2025—to 810.7 million metric tons, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Based on August data, the FAO raised its forecast for the global wheat harvest by 0.5%, but despite this revision, production may still be 3.8% lower than last year’s figure (798.5 million metric tons), according to the report.
The increase in the August forecast is primarily due to upward revisions in estimates for Canada, Morocco, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases more than offset the downward revisions for the EU and the United Kingdom, where a lack of rainfall and high temperatures led to lower yields.
The FAO’s August forecast for the world’s total grain harvest has been lowered by 3.4 million metric tons—to 2.98 billion metric tons—compared to the July level. “Taking into account the latest adjustments, production in 2026 could be 2% lower than last year’s level, which would mark the most significant annual decline since 2018,” the report states.
The revision of the overall forecast is largely due to a 0.6% downward revision of the corn harvest estimate to 1.309 billion metric tons. This is primarily due to worsening harvest forecasts in the EU, where hot and dry weather conditions in key production regions—particularly in France and Poland—have led to a deterioration in crop conditions and reduced expected yields to below the five-year average, according to FAO experts.
In addition, based on the latest official estimates, production forecasts for India and Paraguay have been revised downward. This decline more than offset the upward revisions for Argentina and Brazil, where the 2026 harvest could turn out to be significantly higher than average levels.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—at $185 and $175 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers in its weekly market review.
According to the broker, Ukraine exported approximately 612,700 metric tons of wheat in August. The top destinations were Spain (118,200 metric tons), Egypt (116,100 metric tons), and Algeria (78,100 metric tons). These three countries accounted for about 51% of August’s exports.
From September 1–3, Ukraine exported about 116,800 metric tons of wheat, or nearly 39,000 metric tons per day, compared to an average of about 20,000 metric tons per day in August. Destinations included Tunisia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Israel.
The price of corn also remained unchanged over the week: on a CPT Odessa basis, it stood at $185 per metric ton, and on an FCA Chop basis, at $225 per metric ton.
In August, Ukraine exported about 300,000 metric tons of corn. During the first three days of September, corn exports totaled about 69,200 metric tons. The main export destinations were Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Disruptions in grain supplies from the Black Sea region and hot weather, which worsened harvest forecasts in a number of countries, led to a 2.2% increase in global grain prices in August compared to July. Prices reached their highest level since May 2024, according to the monthly review by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the report, international prices for all major grain crops rose in August. “This was driven by strong demand resulting from deteriorating harvest prospects in key producing regions due to adverse weather conditions, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding exports from the Black Sea region,” the report states.
Global wheat prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to July, with a year-over-year increase of 15%. Among the reasons, FAO experts also cite “protracted disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region, downward revisions to production forecasts in some European regions experiencing hot and dry weather, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which has made export shipments more competitive.”
Corn prices rose by 2.5% compared to July, driven by growing concerns about harvest prospects in some regions of the U.S. Corn Belt and worsening production forecasts in the EU. At the same time, demand from ethanol producers and the animal feed industry remains high.
“Fears regarding food supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided additional support to corn prices,” the review notes.
Global prices for sorghum and barley rose by 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in August compared with July, “which generally reflects a more stable situation in the feed grain markets,” the review states.
Rice prices rose by 0.5% in August. “The rise in prices for Indian rice varieties was driven by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, purchases by Asian and African countries, and an expected reduction in supplies,” the report states.
The price of food-grade wheat in Ukraine fell by $10 over the week—to $185 per metric ton on a CPT Odessa basis—while feed-grade wheat also dropped by $10, to $175 per metric ton, according to a weekly market review by the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“The global grain market ended the week with a further rise, but this trend did not carry over to Ukrainian basis prices,” the review noted.
Wheat exports from Ukraine during August 1–27 fell by half (-49.8%) compared to the same period last month—to 486,600 metric tons from 969,400 metric tons. The main destinations were Bangladesh—251,000 metric tons, Indonesia—243,500 metric tons, and Algeria—226,300 metric tons. These three countries accounted for about 74% of total exports of this product. Saudi Arabia and Yemen followed in terms of volume, with approximately 54,500 metric tons each.
The price of corn on a CPT Odessa basis fell by $5 to $185 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis, it rose by $5 to $225 per metric ton.
Corn exports from August 1–27 totaled 190.7 thousand metric tons, which is 84.3% less than during the same period in July.
According to Spike Brokers, trading in next year’s corn crop is already active along the western border. During the week, October–December quotes on an FCA Zahony–Chop–Batyovo basis ranged from EUR188 to EUR191 per metric ton.
Brokers note that this trade route faces physical constraints on both sides of the border, particularly due to transshipment capacity in Ukraine and the EU, the availability of rail logistics, and the fleet of Euro-standard railcars.
Agricultural holding company IMC reported $34.28 million in net profit for the first half of 2026, down 33% from the first half of 2025, according to the company’s report filed with the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Thursday.
“The decline in normalized EBITDA and net profit … was driven by lower corn and sunflower prices compared to the same period last year—in contrast to the sharp price increases in the first half of 2025—as well as rising logistics costs and the depreciation of the hryvnia,” the document states.
According to the report, EBITDA fell by 22% to $50.23 million.
The company’s consolidated revenue in the first half of 2026 rose by 6% to $88.88 million. Corn sales accounted for the largest share—98.1% compared to 97.8% in the first half of last year.
It is noted that the company’s cost of goods sold rose from $66.4 million in January–June 2025 to $79.9 million in January–June 2026.
IMK added that over the six-month period, the Ukrainian hryvnia depreciated by 5.5% against the U.S. dollar, whereas in the first half of last year it depreciated by only 1.0%; consequently, the company recognized a net loss from foreign exchange differences of $2.11 million.
Net cash flow from operating activities decreased to $12.0 million from $15.0 million in January–June 2025, primarily due to lower prices for agricultural products and higher operating expenses.
According to the report, IMC’s net cash outflow from investing activities decreased to $8.2 million in the first half of 2026 from $10.5 million in the first half of 2025, in line with the group’s capital expenditure program.
IMK Agroholding is an integrated group of companies operating in the Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions (northern and central Ukraine) in the crop production, grain elevators, and warehousing segments. Its land bank totals 115,000 hectares, storage capacity stands at 554,000 metric tons, and grain and oilseed production in 2025 reached 838,000 metric tons.
IMK’s net profit in 2025 rose by 24% to $67.5 million, while consolidated revenue fell by 10% to $190.5 million.
Wheat trade in Ukraine remains sluggish, while the corn market continues to see some activity, primarily along the western border, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
According to the firm, prices for Ukrainian wheat with an 11.5% protein content on a DAP-Danube basis stand at $166–168 per metric ton.
“An imbalance between supply and demand persists in the Ukrainian wheat market. A shortage of EU quotas, logistics at the western border booked months in advance, and the absence of panic among importers are holding back trading activity and putting downward pressure on prices,” the report states.
Quotes for Ukrainian corn on a DAP Izov basis stand at $173 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market is in the off-season and awaiting the resumption of deep-water exports. Some activity continues along the western border for both the old crop and forward contracts,” analysts note.
