As of August 14, 2026, Ukraine had exported 3.093 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), which is 9.8% more than the 2.818 million metric tons exported by the same date last year.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service, total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 3.097 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 14.9%—to 1.291 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively; barley exports fell by 26.8%, to 339,000 metric tons from 463,000 metric tons, while corn exports rose by 69.6%—to 1.403 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year earlier.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
In addition, wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 48.3%, totaling 3,000 metric tons compared to 5,800 metric tons as of the same date last marketing year.
In total, as of August 14, Ukraine had exported 348,000 metric tons of grains and legumes, including 219,000 metric tons of wheat, 40,000 metric tons of barley, and 89,000 metric tons of corn.
On the Ukrainian grain and oilseed market, prices showed mixed trends over the week: wheat remained at the previous level, sunflower seed prices fell significantly, while rapeseed prices for export rose, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
According to data from analysts published on their Telegram channel, wheat with 11.5% protein on CPT Odessa terms was priced at $195 per metric ton, while feed wheat was priced at $185 per metric ton. On FCA Chop terms, wheat traded mainly at EUR180–185/metric ton for loading onto a European train.
The price of corn on CPT Odessa terms fell by $5 per metric ton over the week to $190 per metric ton, while on FCA Chop terms it remained at $220 per metric ton. The new October–March crop was trading at EUR188–193 per metric ton FCA Chop at the western border.
The price of sunflower seeds on CPT mill terms fell by $110 per metric ton over the week to $440 per metric ton. According to the broker, the market continues to transition to pricing for the new crop, and the external rise in prices for soybean oil and crude oil has not yet been reflected in Ukrainian raw material prices.
In the rapeseed market, the price on CPT port terms remained at $500 per metric ton, while on FCA Chop terms it rose by $5 per metric ton to $550 per metric ton. At the same time, the price of rapeseed for domestic processing fell by $15/metric ton to $485/metric ton. Thus, the difference between the FCA Chop export price and the price for domestic processing is $65/metric ton.
As of August 10, Ukraine had harvested 3.22 million metric tons of rapeseed from 1.191 million hectares—or 89% of the planted area—with a yield of 2.71 metric tons per hectare. Current pricing is determined by the distribution of supply among the western border, ports, and domestic processing.
The price of GMO soybeans on CPT port terms was $420 per metric ton, FCA Chop – $435 per metric ton, and non-GMO soybeans – $440 per metric ton and $470 per metric ton, respectively. The price of GMO soybeans for domestic processing rose by $5 per metric ton over the week, reaching $425 per metric ton.
“Thus, sunflower seeds are adjusting to the purchase price of the new crop; competition is intensifying in rapeseed between FCA Chop and processing; and soybeans are receiving an external boost from the CBOT and Chinese demand, which is not yet being strongly reflected in the Ukrainian physical market,” analysts note.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in the 2026/27 season amid ongoing supply constraints from Ukraine.
In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on August 12, the forecast for U.S. corn exports was raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, or approximately 83.8 million metric tons. Compared to the July estimate, the increase amounts to about 1.9 million metric tons, or 2.3%.
The USDA explicitly attributes the increase in the U.S. export forecast to rising global demand and limited export capacity from Ukraine.
At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year by 1 million metric tons—from 23 million to 22 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s corn harvest itself, on the contrary, was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—from 30 million to 31.8 million metric tons.
Thus, Ukraine may harvest more corn than the USDA expected just a month ago, but a smaller portion of the harvest will be able to reach foreign markets.
As a result, the forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks has been increased from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than 2.3 times the previous figure. At the same time, the USDA left its forecast for domestic consumption virtually unchanged.
The situation on the global market is different. The USDA raised its forecast for global corn trade in the 2026/27 season by 0.6 million metric tons—from 209.88 million to 210.48 million metric tons.
The United States is the main source of this additional supply. At the same time, the USDA lowered its export forecast not only for Ukraine but also for the European Union.
The U.S. agency also raised its forecast for EU corn imports, while estimates for purchases by China and Turkey were lowered.
The growth in U.S. exports is occurring against the backdrop of a virtually unchanged forecast for U.S. corn production. The harvest is expected to reach about 16 billion bushels and could be the second-largest in the country’s history. However, the increase in export demand will lead to a reduction in U.S. ending stocks by 137 million bushels—to 1.7 billion bushels.
The USDA also raised its forecast for the average corn price for U.S. farmers by $0.10 to $4.50 per bushel.
Consequently, difficulties with Ukrainian corn exports are already beginning to shift the global market in favor of competing suppliers. The U.S. stands to increase shipments by nearly 2 million metric tons compared to the previous forecast, while Ukraine risks accumulating significant additional domestic stockpiles.
As of August 12, 2026, Ukraine had exported, since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), 2.952 million metric tons of grains and legumes, which is 4.8% more than it exported by the same date last year, when the figure stood at 2.818 million metric tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service (SCS), total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 2.955 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago—an increase of 4.6%.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 18.3%—to 1.239 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively. Specifically, 175,000 metric tons of wheat were exported in August of this year, compared to 759,000 metric tons a year ago.
Barley exports fell by 28.1%, to 333 thousand metric tons from 463 thousand metric tons; specifically, 37 thousand metric tons of this product were shipped abroad in August, compared to 206 thousand metric tons in August 2025.
Corn exports as of the reporting date for the season increased by 66.4%, to 1.376 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year ago; in August, 68,000 metric tons of corn were shipped to other countries, compared to 184,000 metric tons in August of last year.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
Flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 54.1% to 2,800 metric tons. As of the same date last marketing year, they stood at 6.1 thousand metric tons. In grain equivalent, flour exports totaled 3.7 thousand metric tons, compared to 8.1 thousand metric tons a year earlier.
According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
