A prolonged blockade of the Black Sea could lead to a significant reduction in grain plantings during the 2026/27 marketing year (MY), primarily corn and wheat, farmers may partially shift to oilseeds, which are more profitable under these conditions, said Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food.
“Our assessment is that the area planted with grains—primarily corn and wheat—will decrease, while the area planted with oilseeds—primarily soybeans and sunflowers—will increase,” he told reporters in Kyiv on Thursday, according to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent.
“The largest reduction in acreage—as it looks today—will be for corn: we do not rule out that this reduction could even be by half,” the minister added.
Regarding wheat, he noted that a survey of farmers showed that the potential reduction in wheat acreage is 15–17%.
“From our perspective, this will reflect reality. If we had 5.1 million hectares of planted area in the 2025/26 marketing year—which included both winter and spring crops, with winter crops accounting for 5 million hectares—then we estimate that planted area in the 2026/27 marketing year will be 4–4.2 million hectares, a 17% decrease,” Vysotsky noted.
According to him, the area planted with barley will be 1.5 million hectares, and that planted with rapeseed will be 1.3 million hectares, of which 0.2 million hectares will be spring crops, which corresponds to the previous year’s figures.
The minister noted that, on average, 20 million hectares in Ukraine are planted with the six main grain and oilseed crops (wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans).
According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 20, farmers had planted 3.93 million hectares with winter grain crops, or 75.4% of the projected area; over the past week, the planted area increased by 0.56 million hectares, whereas on the same date last year, the figure was 4.84 million hectares, or 74% of the forecast.
This year, 3.51 million hectares have already been planted with wheat (77.4% of the projected area), 0.34 million hectares with winter barley (57.9%), and 70,700 hectares with rye (92.1%). A year ago, these figures were 3.44 million hectares, 0.3 million hectares, and 60,000 hectares, respectively.
Winter rapeseed plantings in the 2026/27 marketing year exceeded the forecast: the area planted is 1.12 million hectares, or 101.4% of the planned volume, while last year 1.03 million hectares were planted.
This year’s soybean harvest is expected to reach 3.7–4 million metric tons, and the sunflower harvest—11.5–12 million metric tons—but closer to the upper end of that range, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky told reporters on Thursday.
“As for soybeans, we think it will be 4 (million metric tons), and for sunflowers, we also think it will be 12 (million metric tons). That means we can talk about 20 million metric tons of oilseeds,” the minister noted, recalling that the rapeseed harvest totaled 4 million metric tons.
According to him, the upper-end estimate for the soybean harvest is due to the fact that the area planted with this crop is larger than what was declared.
Vysotsky clarified that 80% of the sunflower acreage has already been harvested, and over 85% of the soybean acreage, so the harvest will effectively be completed by the end of October.
As for corn, he said that more than 20% of the area has been harvested so far, but the baseline forecast of 30 million metric tons may be revised downward due to lower yields.
“It’s difficult to make a forecast for corn… There are many reports from various regions indicating that actual yields, for example in the Chernihiv region—which is very important for corn production—are significantly lower than planned,” the minister explained.
He noted that a more realistic assessment of the harvest will be possible once 50–60% of the area has been harvested.
“For now, we’re aiming for 30 million metric tons, but we don’t rule out that this figure may be revised downward. Well, let’s say 25 million metric tons are guaranteed, from our point of view,” Vysotsky concluded.
He reminded that the wheat and barley harvests are complete, with yields of 25.5 million metric tons and 6 million metric tons, respectively.
CORN, HARVEST, MINISTRY OF AGRARIAN POLICY, SOYBEANS, sunflowers
As of October 13, 2026, Ukrainian farmers had harvested approximately 13.9 million metric tons of oilseeds, which is 2.1% more than on the same date last year.
Sunflowers and rapeseed accounted for the bulk of the harvest, while the soybean harvest remains below last year’s level so far.
Sunflower harvests totaled 7.44 million metric tons from 3.44 million hectares, or 66% of the projected area. Despite a 12.1% reduction in the harvested area, the gross harvest was 3.4% higher than last year’s thanks to an increase in yield to 21.6 centners per hectare, up from 18.4 centners per hectare.
Rapeseed production totaled 3.88 million metric tons from 1.33 million hectares. This is 17.1% more than last year. The average yield is 29.2 centners per hectare, compared to 26 centners per hectare.
Soybeans yielded 2.56 million metric tons from 1.17 million hectares, or 73% of the projected area. Compared to last year, the gross harvest is 16.9% lower, and the yield decreased to 21.9 centners per hectare, down from 22.9 centners per hectare.
Among late-season crops, the corn harvest has accelerated sharply. Over the past week, the gross harvest increased from 1.6 million to 3.49 million metric tons. A total of 589,400 hectares, or 13% of the projected area, has been threshed, with an average yield of 59.1 centners per hectare.
Although less corn had been harvested by mid-October than a year ago, its yield is already 7.8% higher than last year’s.
The sugar beet harvest is lagging behind. 1.58 million metric tons have been harvested from 31,600 hectares, or 19% of the projected area. A year earlier, by the same date, 4.72 million metric tons had been harvested from 90,000 hectares.
The buckwheat and millet harvests are nearing completion. Buckwheat has been threshed on 91% of the area, with 55,600 metric tons harvested. Millet has been harvested on 88% of the area, with a gross yield of 81,300 metric tons.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, data as of October 13, 2026.
As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged due to complicated and expensive logistics, while the corn market is suffering from slow export growth and anticipates a seasonal increase in supply, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
The price of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat on DAP-Danube terms stood at $172–178 per metric ton on September 21.
“The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged—exports remain costly and complicated due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, and the logistics situation is unlikely to improve in the near future,” Barva Invest noted.
According to the company, the most active export routes for Ukrainian wheat remain the Romanian port of Constanta and the Vadul Siret border crossing. At the same time, exports through Ukrainian Danube ports remain extremely difficult due to constant attacks by Russia.
On the Ukrainian corn market, the DAP-Danube price on September 21 stood at $170 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market continues to suffer from a lack of its usual export pace, while at the same time anticipating a seasonal increase in supply. Logistics are expensive and complicated, which does not facilitate the conclusion of new deals,” Barva Invest noted.
According to Experts Club, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 31.8 million metric tons, despite a significant revision to the global corn harvest estimate.
According to the USDA’s September WASDE report, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports has also remained unchanged at 22 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons, of which 5.5 million metric tons will be used for feed.
At the same time, the U.S. agency raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks by 0.6 million metric tons—from 4.86 million metric tons in August to 5.46 million metric tons in September.
Opening stocks were also revised upward—from 2.25 million metric tons to 2.85 million metric tons. Corn imports are expected to be minimal—about 10,000 metric tons.
The situation on the global market is unfolding differently. The USDA has lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year by nearly 8 million metric tons—from 1,298.88 million metric tons to 1,290.95 million metric tons.
The forecast for global corn trade was reduced by a much smaller margin—from 210.48 million metric tons to 210.08 million metric tons—and the forecast for ending stocks was lowered from 274.66 million metric tons to 272.10 million metric tons.
The main decline in production is linked, in particular, to worsening forecasts for the United States, India, Kenya, and Russia. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were raised.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA September Report
