According to Fixygen, global prediction markets continue to grow rapidly and are becoming one of the most prominent segments at the intersection of cryptocurrencies, trading, and sports betting. During the first weekend of the new NFL season, the total trading volume on the largest prediction markets reached at least $5.83 billion, according to data from Aldrin Research cited by Barron’s.
The bulk of the trading volume came from the U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi—about $4.89 billion over the weekend.
On Sunday alone, the total volume of prediction markets was approximately $3.12 billion, and Kalshi set its own single-day record at $2.433 billion.
On the blockchain platform Polymarket, trading volume on Sunday totaled about $404 million.
Sports events were the main driver of this growth. According to researchers’ estimates, about 91% of the weekend’s activity was related to sports and combination contracts.
At the same time, prediction markets are gradually expanding far beyond elections and sporting events. Contracts on interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic indicators are already being actively traded on these platforms.
The European regulator ESMA is taking note of the sector’s growth. In July, the agency noted that some event contracts may fall under existing restrictions on binary options, while some products may also be considered by national regulators as bets.
In its September risk review, ESMA also pointed out potential issues regarding the manipulation of prediction markets and the use of insider information.
Thus, prediction markets are following a path similar to that of the early cryptocurrency market: rapid growth in trading volume is gradually attracting the attention of traditional financial regulators.
CRYPTOCURRENCY, KALSHI, Polymarket, Prediction market, TRADING
Ethereum is becoming the second-largest digital asset after Bitcoin that public companies are using to build corporate cryptocurrency reserves, according to Fixygen.
According to The Block’s Ethereum Treasury Tracker as of September 9–10, 2026, the nine publicly traded companies being monitored hold a total of approximately 7.63 million ETH on their balance sheets. The value of these reserves is estimated at approximately $19 billion.
BitMine Immersion Technologies emerged as the clear leader. The company announced on September 8 that it had increased its portfolio to 5.929 million ETH. In addition, BitMine holds 211 BTC, cash, and marketable securities totaling $593 million, as well as a number of other investments. The company estimates the total value of its cryptocurrency, cash, and marketable securities at $15.7 billion.
According to BitMine’s own estimates, the 5.93 million ETH it owns account for approximately 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply.
At the same time, the company has already staked approximately 5.067 million ETH. At the time of the announcement, BitMine valued these holdings at approximately $12.6 billion.
SharpLink ranks second among public corporate holders of Ethereum with 868,700 ETH worth approximately $2.15 billion, while Dynamix Corporation ranks third with 496,700 ETH worth approximately $1.24 billion.
Next are Bit Digital with 158,500 ETH, BTCS with 70,100 ETH, and Forum Markets with 69,800 ETH.
Thus, BitMine alone controls about 78% of all ETH held in specialized corporate Ethereum reserves tracked by The Block.
The emerging model resembles the strategy Strategy began implementing with Bitcoin several years ago, but there is a significant difference with Ethereum. A company can not only hold the digital asset in anticipation of its value increasing but also stake it to earn additional returns.
At the same time, this model carries additional risks—ranging from ETH volatility to fluctuations in staking yields and a potential discount on the company’s stock relative to the value of its Ethereum holdings.
As of September 10, ETH is trading at $2,470.
According to Fixygen, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price swings on individual trading days.
An analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most important factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders. This metric better explains changes in volatility than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the market size that matters, but also the structure of BTC holders.
Bitcoin, which previously circulated largely among speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This may reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and decrease the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more sustained bull market.
At the same time, the high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial situation of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market in the event of further price increases, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is, for now, more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If an increasing portion of the supply remains held by ETFs, corporations, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin.
According to Fixygen, there are still no signs of a broad shift of capital from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, despite periodic rallies in individual tokens and Ethereum’s strengthening.
According to CoinMarketCap data as of September 12, 2026, the Altcoin Season Index stands at about 40 points out of 100, which is significantly below the 75-point threshold at which the market is considered to have entered a full-fledged altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at about 58.7%, while Ethereum’s is 11.6%.
CoinMarketCap defines altseason as a period when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and certain asset-backed tokens—have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
BlockchainCenter’s alternative index also does not yet indicate an altseason: its value stands at around 33 points, while the required threshold is 75.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.76 trillion. Bitcoin remains the largest asset with a market cap of about $1.55 trillion.
Bitcoin’s high market share indicates that a significant portion of new capital continues to be concentrated in the largest and most liquid crypto asset. This trend is driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate BTC purchases, and investor caution regarding less liquid tokens.
However, this situation differs from the classic cryptocurrency cycles of previous years, when, following strong growth in Bitcoin, capital would sequentially flow first into Ethereum, then into major altcoins, and finally into more speculative assets with smaller market capitalizations.
Certain altcoins have periodically outperformed Bitcoin significantly in the current cycle as well; however, so far these have been isolated instances rather than broad-based growth across the entire segment.
Ethereum has strengthened its position in recent months: its market share has grown from about 9% three months ago to around 11%, but this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale rotation of capital away from Bitcoin.
Kalshi recorded $37.17 billion in trading volume in August, down 7.3% from July’s $40.1 billion. Polymarket, together with the U.S. platform, accounted for an additional $8.16 billion, compared to $12.89 billion the previous month—a 36.7% decline, according to the Fixygen portal.
At the same time, after record activity in the summer, trading volume fell by 14.5% compared with July. This was the first monthly decline in approximately a year, according to data from The Block.
Kalshi accounted for $37.17 billion in turnover in August, which was 7.3% less than July’s $40.1 billion. Polymarket together with the U.S. platform generated another $8.16 billion compared with $12.89 billion a month earlier, meaning volume declined by 36.7%.
However, even after the decline, the August market remained significantly larger than in May, when combined turnover amounted to around $25.66 billion.
This segment is developing especially rapidly within traditional brokerage platforms.
Robinhood reported on September 8 that in the second quarter alone, 13.6 billion event contracts were traded through its service, while in the first eight months of 2026 more than 30 billion contracts were traded. Since the launch of the business about two years ago, Robinhood clients have entered into more than 45 billion such contracts.
The company is expanding the number of venues through which trades are executed. In addition to Kalshi and ForecastEx, Robinhood uses Rothera, and from September 8 began routing some contracts to the Crypto.com platform through CFTC-regulated infrastructure.
The company is also launching a separate prediction markets section for the U.S. midterm elections and expanding its offering of contracts on American football.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts whose payouts depend on the occurrence of a specific event — the result of a sports match, an election, an economic indicator or another measurable event.
In terms of their economic structure, such instruments lie between financial derivatives and traditional betting, which simultaneously ensures their rapid growth and creates regulatory disputes.
In the United States, more than ten states have already taken legal or administrative action against Kalshi or Polymarket, primarily over sports contracts.
CRYPTOCURRENCY, KALSHI, Polymarket, PREDICTION MARKETS, ROBINHOOD
Bitcoin mining profitability rebounded significantly in August 2026 thanks to a sharp rise in the price of the largest cryptocurrency, but the industry’s economics remain substantially weaker than last year’s levels, according to Fixygen.
According to the monthly Luxor Hashrate Index report published on September 8, the dollar-denominated hashprice—the estimated miner’s revenue per unit of computing power—started August at $31.63 per PH/s per day and ended the month at $39.33, an increase of 24.4%.
This marked the strongest monthly growth in the metric since November 2024. On August 27, the hashprice temporarily rose above $40 for the first time in 220 days.
Bitcoin was the main driver behind the improvement in mining economics. In August, its price rose from $62,889 to $78,312, an increase of 24.5%. The average BTC price for the month increased by 8.7% to $69,263.
The average hashprice for August was $34.63, compared to $31.21 in July, an increase of 10.9%.
However, even after this recovery, profitability remains significantly lower than last year’s levels. The average August hashprice was approximately 32% lower than the 2025 average of $50.68 per PH/s per day.
Relatively stable network difficulty provided additional support to miners. In August, two adjustments nearly offset each other, and the net change amounted to approximately minus 0.34%. The average difficulty was 2% lower than in July.
However, as early as September 5, network difficulty rose by 1.31% as some of the computing power that had previously been taken offline began returning to the network. Luxor notes that mining activity is recovering following the hashrate decline in June and July.
The increase in computing power could once again put pressure on profitability. The more equipment competes for a fixed block reward, the smaller the share of revenue per unit of hashrate.
The situation also remains challenging for less efficient equipment. According to Luxor’s estimates, devices with energy efficiency of 25–38 J/TH generated an average energy yield of about $45 per MWh in August, while the average grid electricity cost was about $48 per MWh. This means that some older equipment remains at or below the break-even point.
As a result, August provided miners with a noticeable respite, but the sustainability of the recovery will depend on three factors at once: Bitcoin prices, network difficulty, and the cost of electricity.
