Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $21.7 million, or 3.8%, to $551.3 million, which is the same as the week before last, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities rose to $78.9 million from $65.6 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $315.8 million.
The negative balance on the FX market for households also increased to $68.2 million from $44.3 million the week before, although it was declining over the course of the week, from $25.7 million on Monday to $14.0 million on Thursday.
This result was partly due to the high volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases on September 1, which amounted to $32.9 million.
The NBU started publishing weekend foreign exchange statistics separately, whereas previously it combined them with Monday data.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar weakened from 41.3203 UAH/$1 to 41.3722 UAH/$1 early last week, but on Friday the National Bank strengthened the national currency to 41.2199 UAH/$1. The last time the hryvnia was so expensive was in the third decade of August, and before that – in April of this year.
On the cash market, the dollar also fell by about 6-8 kopecks over the past week: buying to 41.21 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.30 UAH/$1.
“Domestic demand remains restrained: importers are working as planned, the population is mainly focused on the euro, and the NBU is maintaining the balance without sharp movements. The general characteristic of market behavior is a smooth decline (of the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate) without sharp impulses,” experts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market, said.
They added that the spread between buying and selling is stable in a narrow corridor of UAH 0.40-0.50, and market rates remain equidistant from the official one. This indicates a lack of nervousness and support for the “exchange rate consensus” between the market and the regulator.
According to KYT Group’s short-term forecast for the period until mid-September, the exchange rate will remain in the basic range of UAH 41.20-41.70/$1, while the medium-term forecast for 2-3 months envisages a range of UAH 41.50-42.20/$1.
“The Fed’s likely September decision could give momentum in either direction: if the rate is cut, the hryvnia could strengthen in the short term and the dollar could fall to the lower boundary; if it is maintained, quotes will remain closer to the upper boundary,” experts say.
In the long term (6+ months), they maintain the scenario of a smooth devaluation: the expected benchmark is 43.00-44.50 UAH/$1, provided that foreign aid is stable and the NBU’s policy is controlled.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week increased its sale on the interbank market by $138.7m, or 23.7%, to $724.0m in the absence of currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
The data, which the regulator managed to release during this time, shows that the balance was negative all last week and fluctuated from $0.4m on Monday to $13.7m on Tuesday, $14.1m on Wednesday and $11.9m on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate rose from 41.4466 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.8335 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
In the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate changed at the end of the week, with buying up around 41.71 UAH/$1 and selling up around 41.80 UAH/$1.
“The US dollar exchange rate remains in a controlled range, showing minimal changes within the so-called floating stability. This was possible due to the systemic influence of key factors: high currency reserves, restrained demand from the population, moderate business activity and projected volumes of currency supply,” experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market described the situation. Read more at the link – KYT Group.
According to analysts, in the next two to four weeks the dollar exchange rate is likely to remain stable within the range of UAH 41.10-41.80/$1, without significant fluctuations in the spread.
In the medium term, within two to four months, the dollar may strengthen to UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 if imports intensify, budget expenditures increase or inflation accelerates.
