The spot price of gold exceeded $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time on Monday amid growing demand for safe-haven assets. As of 8:02 a.m., the spot price of gold rose 1.8% to $5,078.54 per ounce, reaching $5,093.05 per ounce during the session.
The price is supported by fears of another US government shutdown and the weakening of the dollar: the DXY index, which reflects the dynamics of the US currency against six major world currencies, is down 0.5%.
Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by 15.5%.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased dollar sales on the interbank market by $79.0 million, or 12.5%, to $712.1 million last week, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities decreased to $67.3 million from $69.3 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $269.3 million.
On the currency exchange market for the population, on the contrary, the negative balance increased to $46.5 million from $21.9 million the week before last, and on all days, the purchase of non-cash currency exceeded its sale.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 42.2942 UAH/USD, weakened daily to a new historic low, broke through the 43 UAH/USD level, and ended the week at 43.0757 UAH/USD.
The hryvnia’s exchange rate against the euro also fell by 1.1% over the week, from 49.5794 UAH/EUR1 to 50.1444 UAH/EUR1. During these days, it also broke through the important level of 50 UAH/EUR1 for the first time and reached a historic low of 50.1762/EUR1.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week followed the official trajectory, with the dollar rising by approximately 77 kopecks over the week: purchase – to 42.84 UAH/$1, sale – to 43.26 UAH/$1, while on the black market on Monday it reached 43.4-43.5 UAH/$1, with the euro also rising in price by 80 kopecks and currently trading at: purchase – 50 UAH/EUR11, sale – 50.73 UAH/EUR1.
As of 15:43 GMT, the spot price of the precious metal was $4,222.18 per ounce, down 3.1% from the previous session’s close. Earlier in trading, it fell to $4,215.17 per ounce. Gold futures on Comex are down 3.5% to $4,205.8 per ounce.
Investors are taking profits amid a strengthening US dollar and signs of easing tensions.
In particular, US President Donald Trump said he expects to reach a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Ahead of the talks between the two leaders, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet.
In addition, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said yesterday that the US federal government shutdown is likely to end this week.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in a video on its YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=YuRnDiu7jtfUPBR9
Despite the growing share of the euro in Ukraine’s foreign trade and international reserves, the US dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency for the hryvnya. This was reported by the first Deputy head of the NBU Sergey Mykolaychuk in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Historically, the focus has always been on the hryvnia-dollar pair. We realize that changes are possible over time with the deepening of European integration, but there is no clear transition plan. Today the dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency,” he said.
According to the official, the structure of reserves and settlements may change in the future, however, instruments for hedging currency risks, including forwards, are available for business.
Let’s track the prices as of the end of June 2025 for the main grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, as well as fluctuations in their value on the world market.
The price of wheat (France, FOB) was 235 USD/t, according to market operators on June 25, 2025. This is 1 USD less than last week, 6 USD more than the previous month, and 3 USD more than the previous year. The price of wheat (Ukraine, 2nd grade, CPT) for the central regions (June 26) was 192 USD/t. This figure remained unchanged during the week, decreased by 15 USD over the month, and increased by 45 USD over the year. For ports, the amount was 206 USD/t, which is 3 USD less than a week ago and 18 USD less than a month ago, but 19 USD more than a year ago.
According to the International Grains Council, the price of corn (USA, FOB) as of June 25 was 192 USD/t. This is USD 8 less per week and USD 16 less per month, but USD 3 more per year. The price of corn (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for the central regions was USD 204/t. It did not change during the week, but decreased by USD 4 per month and increased by USD 73 per year. For ports, it was 216 USD/t (also unchanged from the previous week, down 16 USD from the previous month, and up 3 USD from 2024).
“Let’s pay attention to the forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY. It has been reduced by 1 million tons to 1,276 million tons, compared to 1,225 million tons in the current season. However, the forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 1,269 million tons. Therefore, the estimate of final corn stocks has been lowered by 2 million tons (to 282 million tons). This will exceed the current season’s figure by 7 million tons,” said grain market analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
As for the price of barley (France, FOB) as of June 25, it stood at USD 216/t. This is USD 6 less than a week ago and USD 5 less than a month ago, but USD 11 more than a year ago. Let’s analyze the price changes for barley (Ukraine, CPT). As of June 26, the price was (central regions) – 171 USD/t. This is 3 USD more per week and 46 USD more per year, but 30 USD less per month. For ports, the price is 188 USD/t, which is 6 USD more per week, 40 USD more per year, but 2 USD less per month.
Prices for major grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, end of June 2025
According to Oleksandr Serhiyovych Korenitsyn, the price of sunflower seeds in the EU (Rotterdam, FOB) as of June 25 was USD 655/t. The changes are as follows: +5 USD per week, -14 USD per month, and +170 USD per year. The price of sunflower seeds (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 (central regions) was 509 USD/t. This is 8 USD less per week and 16 USD less per month, but 109 USD was added to the price per year. For ports, the cost is 507 USD/t. The price fell by 6 USD per week and rose by 9 USD per month and 148 USD per year. A ton of sunflower oil (Ukraine, FOB) costs 1,111 USD as of June 26.
The cost increased by $8 per week and by the same amount per month.
The calculation of price fluctuations for soybeans is based on its cost as of June 25 (Brazil, FOB) – $420/t. It decreased by $10 per week and by $16 per year, but increased by $15 per month.
“The price of soybeans (Ukraine, CPT) in the central regions was 349 USD/t on June 26, which is 8 USD less than a week ago, 4 USD less than a month ago, and 23 USD less than in 2024. The price for ports is 368 USD/t. It decreased by 14 USD, 13 USD, and 10 USD over the week, month, and year, respectively,” said analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
The price of rapeseed (France, FOB) on June 25 was $557/t. Price changes: down $9 per week, up $7 per month, and up $55 per year. The cost of rapeseed (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for central regions is 497 USD/t (up 106 USD per year), for ports – 531 USD/t (up 110 USD per year).
agricultural sector, COST, DOLLAR, EXPORT, HARVEST, Oleksandr Korenitsyn, PORT, PRICE, SOYBEANS
This week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its net sales of dollars on the interbank market to $670.41 million from $722.57 million the previous week, according to the regulator. According to the data, the central bank bought $0.49 million, while selling $670.90 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate rose by 0.2%, or 10 kopecks, over the week, in particular, on Friday it strengthened by 8 kopecks to 40.4542 UAH/$1. On the cash market, the dollar also fell by 5 kopecks to 40.82 UAH/$1.
Since the beginning of 2024, the official hryvnia exchange rate has fallen by 6.5%, or UAH 2.45, and since the National Bank switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, it has fallen by 10.6%, or UAH 3.89.
According to the data published by the NBU during this period, from Monday to Wednesday, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases and sales by the population widened from $42.78 million to $45.66 million.
Overall, in June, the NBU’s net interventions amounted to $2.99 billion, compared to $3.07 billion in May and $2.28 billion in April. According to preliminary estimates of the National Bank, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 7.9%, or $3.4 billion, to $39 billion 033.8 million last month.
At the same time, the official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 90 kopecks in May, from 39.6370 UAH/$1 to 40.5373 UAH/$1, gradually updating its historical lows every day in the last ten days of the month and approaching the average annual exchange rate of 40.7 UAH/$1 set in the state budget for 2024. In the cash market, the hryvnia also weakened by UAH 1.24 over the month to UAH 41.05/$1. The National Bank explained this weakening by the government’s increased spending after receiving external financing in March-April, as well as the impact of the largest package of currency restrictions for businesses since the start of the full-scale war announced on May 3.
