Despite the growing share of the euro in Ukraine’s foreign trade and international reserves, the US dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency for the hryvnya. This was reported by the first Deputy head of the NBU Sergey Mykolaychuk in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Historically, the focus has always been on the hryvnia-dollar pair. We realize that changes are possible over time with the deepening of European integration, but there is no clear transition plan. Today the dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency,” he said.
According to the official, the structure of reserves and settlements may change in the future, however, instruments for hedging currency risks, including forwards, are available for business.
Let’s track the prices as of the end of June 2025 for the main grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, as well as fluctuations in their value on the world market.
The price of wheat (France, FOB) was 235 USD/t, according to market operators on June 25, 2025. This is 1 USD less than last week, 6 USD more than the previous month, and 3 USD more than the previous year. The price of wheat (Ukraine, 2nd grade, CPT) for the central regions (June 26) was 192 USD/t. This figure remained unchanged during the week, decreased by 15 USD over the month, and increased by 45 USD over the year. For ports, the amount was 206 USD/t, which is 3 USD less than a week ago and 18 USD less than a month ago, but 19 USD more than a year ago.
According to the International Grains Council, the price of corn (USA, FOB) as of June 25 was 192 USD/t. This is USD 8 less per week and USD 16 less per month, but USD 3 more per year. The price of corn (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for the central regions was USD 204/t. It did not change during the week, but decreased by USD 4 per month and increased by USD 73 per year. For ports, it was 216 USD/t (also unchanged from the previous week, down 16 USD from the previous month, and up 3 USD from 2024).
“Let’s pay attention to the forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY. It has been reduced by 1 million tons to 1,276 million tons, compared to 1,225 million tons in the current season. However, the forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 1,269 million tons. Therefore, the estimate of final corn stocks has been lowered by 2 million tons (to 282 million tons). This will exceed the current season’s figure by 7 million tons,” said grain market analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
As for the price of barley (France, FOB) as of June 25, it stood at USD 216/t. This is USD 6 less than a week ago and USD 5 less than a month ago, but USD 11 more than a year ago. Let’s analyze the price changes for barley (Ukraine, CPT). As of June 26, the price was (central regions) – 171 USD/t. This is 3 USD more per week and 46 USD more per year, but 30 USD less per month. For ports, the price is 188 USD/t, which is 6 USD more per week, 40 USD more per year, but 2 USD less per month.
Prices for major grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, end of June 2025
According to Oleksandr Serhiyovych Korenitsyn, the price of sunflower seeds in the EU (Rotterdam, FOB) as of June 25 was USD 655/t. The changes are as follows: +5 USD per week, -14 USD per month, and +170 USD per year. The price of sunflower seeds (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 (central regions) was 509 USD/t. This is 8 USD less per week and 16 USD less per month, but 109 USD was added to the price per year. For ports, the cost is 507 USD/t. The price fell by 6 USD per week and rose by 9 USD per month and 148 USD per year. A ton of sunflower oil (Ukraine, FOB) costs 1,111 USD as of June 26.
The cost increased by $8 per week and by the same amount per month.
The calculation of price fluctuations for soybeans is based on its cost as of June 25 (Brazil, FOB) – $420/t. It decreased by $10 per week and by $16 per year, but increased by $15 per month.
“The price of soybeans (Ukraine, CPT) in the central regions was 349 USD/t on June 26, which is 8 USD less than a week ago, 4 USD less than a month ago, and 23 USD less than in 2024. The price for ports is 368 USD/t. It decreased by 14 USD, 13 USD, and 10 USD over the week, month, and year, respectively,” said analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
The price of rapeseed (France, FOB) on June 25 was $557/t. Price changes: down $9 per week, up $7 per month, and up $55 per year. The cost of rapeseed (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for central regions is 497 USD/t (up 106 USD per year), for ports – 531 USD/t (up 110 USD per year).
agricultural sector, COST, DOLLAR, EXPORT, HARVEST, Oleksandr Korenitsyn, PORT, PRICE, SOYBEANS
This week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its net sales of dollars on the interbank market to $670.41 million from $722.57 million the previous week, according to the regulator. According to the data, the central bank bought $0.49 million, while selling $670.90 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate rose by 0.2%, or 10 kopecks, over the week, in particular, on Friday it strengthened by 8 kopecks to 40.4542 UAH/$1. On the cash market, the dollar also fell by 5 kopecks to 40.82 UAH/$1.
Since the beginning of 2024, the official hryvnia exchange rate has fallen by 6.5%, or UAH 2.45, and since the National Bank switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, it has fallen by 10.6%, or UAH 3.89.
According to the data published by the NBU during this period, from Monday to Wednesday, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases and sales by the population widened from $42.78 million to $45.66 million.
Overall, in June, the NBU’s net interventions amounted to $2.99 billion, compared to $3.07 billion in May and $2.28 billion in April. According to preliminary estimates of the National Bank, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 7.9%, or $3.4 billion, to $39 billion 033.8 million last month.
At the same time, the official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 90 kopecks in May, from 39.6370 UAH/$1 to 40.5373 UAH/$1, gradually updating its historical lows every day in the last ten days of the month and approaching the average annual exchange rate of 40.7 UAH/$1 set in the state budget for 2024. In the cash market, the hryvnia also weakened by UAH 1.24 over the month to UAH 41.05/$1. The National Bank explained this weakening by the government’s increased spending after receiving external financing in March-April, as well as the impact of the largest package of currency restrictions for businesses since the start of the full-scale war announced on May 3.
Net sale of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) rose from $133.7m, the lowest value in the last 11 months, to $262.6m this week, the regulator’s data show.
According to them, the sale of currency increased from $156.8 million to $263.0 million, while the purchase fell back to almost zero, although the National Bank managed to buy more than $50 million on the market in the previous two weeks after a long break.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by almost 66 kop. – From 38.1410 UAH/$1 to $38.7998 UAH/$1 – the lowest level in the history of the national currency. At the same time, market participants note that the decline occurred with a relatively small volume of trading.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate followed the interbank rate, but with a smaller amplitude: a strong weakening in the first three days and relative stabilization at the end of the week. As a result, during the week it decreased by about 33 kop. – from UAH 38.53/$1 to UAH 38.86/$1. At the same time, according to the NBU, despite the weakening of the exchange rate in the first half of the week, the negative balance between the volume of foreign currency purchases and sales by the population decreased during these days: from $28.6 mln on Monday to $10.3 mln on Wednesday
At a press conference on March 14, representatives of the National Bank said that by the end of April they expect external financing in the amount of $10bn or more, which will allow to restore reserves, while before that Ukraine had received only $1.2bn since the beginning of the year.
At the same time, the NBU noted that such non-rhythmic external financing will not lead to any shocks on the currency market.
As reported, at the end of February, the NBU’s net sales fell to $1.50 billion from $2.53 billion in January, $3.55 billion in December and $2.45 billion in November.
However, in February, external support amounted to only about $0.8bn, so international reserves fell by 3.8% or $1.47bn to $37.05bn after falling by 4.9% or UAH $1.98bn in January.
The National Bank in January lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s international reserves at the end of 2024 to $40.4 billion from $44.7 billion.
Net sales of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) this week dropped to $530.9 million from $673.3 million a week earlier, according to data on the regulator’s website on Friday.
According to the data, in the first half of this week, for which the central bank has already published data, purchases of foreign currency by bank clients increased from $205.3 million on Monday to $239.6 million on Wednesday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by only 9 kopecks over the first two days to 37.9247 UAH/$1 on Tuesday, after which it began to strengthen: by 3 kopecks on Wednesday, and then by 19 kopecks and 18 kopecks on Thursday and Friday, respectively. As a result, the official hryvnia exchange rate at the end of the week amounted to 37.5268 UAH/$1.
According to Raiffeisen Bank’s chief dealer Serhiy Zarytsky, the maximum hryvnia appreciation recorded on Friday on the interbank market was 37.5050 UAH/$1, while the dollar peaked at 37.68 UAH/$1.
The banker noted that the trading volume on Bloomberg on Friday increased slightly compared to Thursday: $159 million versus $130 million.
“The NBU, as always, controls the situation and continues to meet the needs of buyers. At present, the NBU’s interventions do not exceed the established volumes of structural demand,” Zarytsky emphasized.
According to his personal estimates, the regulator sold an amount ranging from $120 million to $150 million at the auction.
On Friday, the reference value of the exchange rate set by the National Bank at 12:00 increased by 23 kopecks to 37.5399 UAH/$1.
Since Monday, the hryvnia has strengthened by 0.8%, or 31 kopecks, and by 1.3%, or about 48 kopecks, compared to the exchange rate at the beginning of this year. Its weakening since the National Bank switched to managed flexibility on October 3, 2023, has decreased to 2.6%, or 92 kopecks.
On the cash market on Friday, the hryvnia strengthened by 0.4% to 38.25 UAH/$1, and by 1.6% or 61 kopecks since Monday.
According to the NBU’s monthly surveys, exchange rate expectations for the next year have deteriorated slightly. In particular, in October 2023, banks expected the exchange rate to be 41.16 UAH/$1 in the next 12 months, while the updated January forecast indicates that the hryvnia is expected to devalue by 0.4% to 41.31 UAH/$1. For their part, financial analysts have revised their forecast a little more significantly: they expect the hryvnia to depreciate by 0.5% to 40.29 UAH/$1 in December 2023, compared to their previous forecast.
As reported, in December, the NBU’s net sales increased to about $3.57 billion from $2.46 billion in November, $3.34 billion in October, and $2.69 billion in September. Last month, the Ministry of Finance attracted $5 billion in external financing, which increased international reserves by 4.4% in December to $40 billion 507.9 million, the second highest level in history after July 2023.
The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) net sales of dollars in the second week of September jumped to $873.1 million from $302.3 million a week earlier, the highest level this year.
According to the NBU’s website, from September 11 to 15, its purchases of foreign currency fell to a meager $0.05 million, while sales jumped from $302.7 million to $873.1 million.
On the cash market, the dollar rose by 20 kopecks over the week, approaching the level of 38.2 UAH/$1. On Monday, Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said that the draft state budget for 2024 includes an average annual exchange rate of 41.4 UAH/$1.
As reported, in August, the volume of the National Bank’s interventions increased to $2.364 billion from $1.933 billion in July and $1.798 million in June. At the same time, the volume of external financing in August decreased to $1.664 billion, so international reserves decreased by 3.2% to $40.387 billion from a record high of $41.72 billion.
In total, since the beginning of this year, the NBU has purchased $195.9 million in the market, while selling $18 billion 21.8 million.
