Kiev analytical center “Club of Experts” on its YouTube channel presented another video overview of the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and in the world.
In the new edition, the founder of the “Club of Experts”, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, noted that since official data on the population of Ukraine is not available now because of the ongoing war, the UN estimates as of June 2023 (43.3 million people) are not completely correct.
“These estimates cannot be sufficiently accurate given the availability of other data sources, such as the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, which in its most recent study estimates the available population at 29 million inhabitants. This reflects a significant population decline of nearly 9 million over the past year, caused by the mass exodus of citizens out of the country after the war began,” Urakin noted.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) can be considered encouraging.
“The GDP decline in the first quarter of 2023 was down from the same period last year at 13.5%. But we foresee an overall positive trend, given the forecast of the NBU, which expects economic recovery starting from the second quarter of 2023,” said the expert.
With the increase in the negative foreign trade balance of Ukraine, it is clear that the country faces new challenges.
“In January-April 2023 the negative balance of foreign trade in goods of Ukraine increased 40 times in comparison with the same period of 2022 – up to $ 7.04 billion. This means that the cost of Ukraine to purchase the necessary goods by $ 7 billion exceeded the income from export of Ukrainian goods, “- said Urakin.
The world economy continues to show strong signs of recovery from the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, GDP growth rates of the leading countries differ markedly.
“In the U.S., the economy is showing moderate growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, up 0.2% from what was previously reported. In China, meanwhile, GDP grew 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023, more than expected, thanks to a rebound in exports and consumer spending. The volume of China’s digital economy in 2022 also increased significantly – by 10.3% to 50.2 trillion yuan ($7.25 trillion), indicating the increasing role of the digital economy in the country’s overall economic growth,” said Maxim Urakin.
The expert stressed that despite different levels of growth, it is clear that the economies of different countries are still struggling due to the effects of the pandemic and global uncertainty. However, they continue to adapt and strengthen, as evidenced by this latest data.
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Top managers of the largest Wall Street banks in recent days gave more optimistic assessments of the prospects for the U.S. economy compared with previous forecasts, writes the Financial Times.
In particular, bankers now see a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will be able to provide a so-called “soft landing,” that is, to combat high inflation, while managing to avoid recession.
“The consensus among corporate executives has shifted slightly in a more positive direction. The sagging economy is now expected to be milder than many expected six months ago,” Goldman Sachs Group chief David Solomon said Tuesday at an event hosted by Credit Suisse.
A positive tone also prevailed in a speech by Bank of America Corp. Brian Moynihan, who noted the high consumer activity and resilient profitability of mid-cap companies.
“Consumers have money. They have jobs, they’re spending money and taking out loans,” Moynihan said at a conference on financial services.
Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Michael Santomassimo also pointed to “very good consumer spending data.”
Such comments contrasted with statements by bank executives last year when they expressed serious concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, notes the FT.
Despite the growth of optimism, grounds for concern remain. In particular, the head of Goldman Sachs said that the future trajectory of inflation is still unclear, high rates of growth in consumer prices can be observed for quite some time, which will affect the economy as a whole.
“I think we’re going to see weaker, slower growth for a while,” Solomon said.
Earlier, the Club of Experts consolidated and analyzed economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, more details in the video at the link
A new video dedicated to the situation in the Ukrainian and world economy at the beginning of 2023 has been published on the YouTube channel of the “Club of Experts” analytical center. The official data concerning the main macroeconomic indicators was presented in the program as well as the forecasts of the leading world analytics for the years 2023-2024 were consolidated.
According to the analysts, the indicators of Ukrainian economy are stable on the whole. Thus to support it in the conditions of war in 2023 the increase of volumes of macrofinancial help from partners will be required. Thus, the founder of the Club of Experts, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin referred to the IMF assessment, according to which Ukraine’s needs for external financing in the current year will be not less than 39.5 billion dollars and can reach 57 billion.
“This forecast is an expression of a high degree of uncertainty on the part of the world’s leading financial institutions with regard to the situation in the Ukrainian economy, and also demonstrates the increasing pressure on it from expenditures,” the expert stressed.
As for the global indicators, the same IMF forecasts that more than a third of the global economy in 2023 will arrive in recession. In turn, Bloomberg notes a record fall in global stock and bond markets in the last months of 2022. At the same time, investors are more optimistic about this year’s prospects.
“The end of the cycle of interest rate hikes, the recovery of the Chinese economy and the end of the war in Ukraine followed by the recovery of our economy could significantly improve the situation both in our country and in the world,” said Maxim Urakin.
For more details on the situation in Ukraine and the world economy, please watch the video on the “Club of Experts” channel by clicking here:
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Ukraine and Israel signed bilateral documents on cooperation in agriculture, economics, education, culture, as well as youth and sports. “A series of Ukrainian-Israeli documents were signed in the presence of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu,” the presidential press service reported on Monday.
Thus, Acting Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Olha Trofimtseva and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the sphere of agriculture between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the State of Israel.
In addition, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the State of Israel Hennadiy Nadolenko and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed an Agreement between the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine and the Ministry of Education of the State of Israel as regards facilitating the study of the Hebrew language in the educational institutions of Ukraine and the study of the Ukrainian language in the educational institutions of the State of Israel.
In addition, the ambassadors of the two states signed a Program of Cooperation in the spheres of education, culture, youth and sports between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Government of the State of Israel for 2019-2022.
State Secretary of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine Oleksiy Perevezentsev and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the State of Israel to Ukraine Joel Lyon signed a Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine and the Israeli Patent Office of the Ministry of Justice of the State of Israel.
AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION, ECONOMICS, EDUCATION, ISRAEL, SPORTS, UKRAINE
