The Serbian business publication Parametar has prepared an interesting analysis of the parliamentary elections in Serbia. President Aleksandar Vučić has called for early parliamentary elections on October 25. Serbia has 250 parliamentary seats to fill, but in essence, the campaign is turning into a choice between preserving the current model of government and attempting a political reset.
The main favorite is the “Aleksandar Vučić—United Serbia” bloc centered around the SNS. Vucic himself is running as a candidate for prime minister. According to the Serbian media outlet Parametar, his campaign will focus on stability, infrastructure development, investment, economic growth, and the argument that the country must not return to a period of political instability.
For the first time, the main competitor is not a traditional party, but the Student List, which emerged from the protests following the tragedy in Novi Sad. Its main themes are corruption, government accountability, the independence of institutions, and bringing new people into politics. The movement’s slogans are as simple as possible: “Students Will Win” and “Either Serbia or the Mafia.”
Part of the opposition has already decided to support the students, but there will be no single anti-government list. Running separately are the pro-European “European Serbia,” the “People’s Serbia” bloc, Ivica Dačić’s Socialists, and several national-conservative and sovereigntist groups.
The campaigns of the two main power centers are also divided by fundamentally different emotional agendas. According to sociologist and co-founder of Active Group Aleksandar Pozniy, Vučić will build his campaign primarily around the theme of stability—reminding voters of economic growth, large-scale infrastructure projects, an influx of investment, and the overall progress Serbia has made in recent years. This strategy aims to convince voters that a change in government carries the risk of losing the country’s hard-won achievements. The Student List, on the other hand, will appeal to the long-standing demand for fighting corruption and reforming the political system, contrasting the current elite with new faces unaffiliated with traditional parties. Thus, the election may largely turn into a clash between two basic formulas—“stability and economic results” versus “a change in power and the cleansing of institutions.”
That is precisely why the key question will be what voters deem more important: preserving economic and political stability or the demand for profound systemic change.
Parties representing national minorities will traditionally form a separate segment. A special electoral system applies to minorities: they are not required to clear the general 3 percent threshold, and when seats are allocated, their results are adjusted using a special coefficient. At the start of the campaign, the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM), the Bosnian parties SPP and SDA, representatives of the Albanian and Romani populations, and a number of small regional groups are expected to participate. Their composition may still change before the registration deadline.
Polling data so far is conflicting. Faktor Plus gives the SNS about 47% and the Students’ Party about 32%. An earlier CRTA poll showed the opposite picture—about 45% for the Students’ Party versus 36% for the SNS.
On international betting platforms, Vučić currently appears to be the clear favorite, but there is still a month and a half until the election, and the final list of candidates is still taking shape.
Read more at Parametar.rs.
The record victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt does not give the party the ability to independently change Germany’s foreign policy or stop military support for Ukraine, but it is capable of increasing political pressure on the federal authorities, according to an analysis by the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In the September 6 election, AfD received 43.8% of the vote and 39 of the 83 seats in the Landtag. An absolute majority requires 42 deputies. The simplest arithmetic option for creating a majority is an alliance between AfD and the five deputies of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which would provide 44 votes. At the same time, there is currently no agreement on such a coalition. The CDU, SPD, Greens and The Left reject cooperation with AfD.
Even if AfD forms a state government, its powers will be focused primarily on education, culture, the police, regional administration, infrastructure and the state budget. Foreign policy and defense, in accordance with Germany’s Basic Law, fall within the competence of the federal government.
“The government of Saxony-Anhalt does not receive a separate vote in NATO and cannot independently cancel federal funding for aid to Ukraine,” emphasized Experts Club founder Maksym Urakin.
Saxony-Anhalt has four of the 69 votes in the Bundesrat. This allows the state government to influence part of federal legislation, especially on issues affecting the powers of the states, but it needs allies among other regions to block decisions.
Magdeburg will also not be able to introduce a political ban on the transit of military cargo for Ukraine. At the same time, state authorities participate in approving certain transport and administrative procedures, so a confrontational stance by the regional authorities could theoretically lead to delays and additional bureaucratic difficulties.
Important Bundeswehr facilities are located in Saxony-Anhalt, including the Army Combat Training Center in the Gardelegen—Letzlingen area, the Klietz training ground, where Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 crews underwent training, as well as logistics units in Burg. At the same time, these structures are subordinate to the federal defense authorities, not to the state government.
The consequences for Ukrainians living in the state itself may become more immediate. AfD advocates reducing social support for Ukrainians, changing approaches to integration programs and strengthening return policies. The state cannot abolish the temporary protection regime established at EU level, but it can influence additional regional programs and administrative practices.
According to “Serbian Economist”, early parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled for October 25, 2026, according to local media reports.
Previously, President Aleksandar Vučić had mentioned two possible dates—October 18 or 25. Now, Serbian publications such as Blic, Danas, and others are reporting that October 25 has been chosen. The National Assembly is expected to be dissolved in the coming days, after which the campaign is set to officially begin.
The main question is whether the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will be able to retain its majority amid protracted protests and growing support for the student movement.
Recent polls paint a very mixed picture. According to Faktor Plus, in the spring the SNS had about 46% support, while a potential student-led slate had about 29%. More recent surveys have shown that the gap may be even smaller: in July, CRTA estimated support for the student list at 44.9% and for the SNS at 35.7%. At the same time, other polls, as before, put the SNS at 45–47%.
At this point, a brief analysis is as follows:
SNS / the bloc centered on Vučić—the favorite, with a projected range of 36–47%
The Student List—the main competitor, with potential support of approximately 29–45%, but highly dependent on polls
Ivica Dačić’s SPS—5–7%, a likely coalition partner
The pro-European opposition—may achieve a notable result overall but remains fragmented
Mi—Snaga Naroda, NPS, SSP, ZLF, Nova DSS—are fighting to clear the electoral threshold and influence the future coalition
The baseline scenario for now is as follows: the SNS will most likely remain the leading force, but the election could be the most competitive in recent years.
According to The Serbian Economist, early parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 18 or 25, 2026, as per current plans, President Aleksandar Vucic said on August 20.
“Parliamentary elections in Serbia will, apparently, take place on either October 18 or 25, and we will know the exact date in a few days,” Vučić said on Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS).
Previously, Serbian authorities had been considering holding the election in late October or early November; however, according to the president, the likely date has now been practically determined. That said, the election has not yet been officially scheduled, so October 18 and 25 remain the two dates under consideration.
According to Serbia’s Law on the Election of Members of Parliament, parliamentary elections are scheduled by the President of the Republic, and no fewer than 45 and no more than 60 days must elapse between the date of the announcement and Election Day. Election Day must fall on a non-working day.
As early as August 16, Vučić stated that the elections would be scheduled “very soon”—within the next 15 to 25 days. Prior to that, on August 14, he had indicated a broader timeframe for the elections—October or November.
At the same time, the parliamentary and presidential elections will most likely take place at different times. In July, Vučić stated that the parliamentary elections should take place first, followed by the presidential elections. On August 6, he also announced that he intends to resign from the presidency before joining the election campaign.
Commenting on the upcoming campaign on August 20, Vučić also confirmed that the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will run in the elections with its own electoral list. Referring to the decision by the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) to run independently, he noted that citizens should have the opportunity to choose between different political options.
The previous early parliamentary elections in Serbia took place on December 17, 2023. According to the results, the “Aleksandar Vučić—Serbia Must Not Stop” list received the most votes.
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According to The Serbian Economist, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated that the country’s upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections will be held separately.
According to Vučić, parliamentary elections will most likely take place first, followed by presidential elections. He noted that the decision to schedule the elections could be made in August or September, and the actual voting could take place in October or November.
The president explained that he supports holding the elections separately because, as he put it, opposition parties and other participants in the political process had previously pushed for this. He added that this format would give voters more opportunities to make separate decisions regarding the parliamentary and presidential campaigns.
During his address, Vučić also announced that a package of aid measures for citizens is likely to take effect in mid-September. He had previously noted that these measures could include one-time assistance for pensioners and reduced costs for medications. According to him, the government is also considering additional support for adult citizens, though details have not yet been disclosed.
In addition, Vučić announced the launch of the “Ko si bre ti” portal, through which citizens will be able to anonymously report unscrupulous officials and suspected corruption. He stated that he would personally read a portion of the reports every day, and that reports concerning corruption would be forwarded to the prosecutor’s office.
Separately, the president commented on Serbia’s European integration, noting that the country has made no significant progress toward EU membership for nearly five years, despite its economic development. He also said that, in his assessment, neither Serbia nor Ukraine will become members of the European Union in the near future.
Vucic’s statements came amid Serbia’s preparations for a new election cycle and ongoing political tensions in the country. Holding parliamentary and presidential elections separately could change the dynamics of the campaign, as parties and candidates will be forced to conduct two separate political mobilizations.
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On July 7, the Paris Court of Appeals reduced the sentence of Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Rally, in a case involving the misuse of European Parliament funds, effectively paving the way for her to run in the 2027 French presidential election.
The court upheld the guilty verdict in the case involving the misuse of EU funds but reduced the ban on holding elected office from five years to 45 months, 30 of which are suspended. The remaining 15 months are considered to have already been served, so Le Pen regains the right to run for office.
The court also sentenced her to three years in prison, two of which are suspended, and one year to be served under house arrest with an electronic ankle monitor. Additionally, according to Le Monde, she was fined 100,000 euros.
Following the court’s decision, Le Pen stated that she would run in the 2027 presidential election and appeal the verdict to the French Court of Cassation. According to Reuters and AP, the appeal could suspend the portion of the sentence involving electronic monitoring, allowing her to campaign without immediate restrictions of this kind.
The case concerns the use of European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. Investigators alleged that money intended to pay for the work of European Parliament members’ assistants was used to fund party staff in France. Le Pen denies any wrongdoing and calls the case politically motivated.
The initial verdict, handed down in March 2025, threatened her participation in the presidential campaign, as the five-year ban on holding elected office effectively excluded her from the race. The National Rally had considered nominating Jordan Bardella as a contingency plan, but following the appeals court’s decision, Le Pen remains the party’s lead candidate.
The French presidential election is scheduled for 2027. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will not be able to run for another term, so the campaign is already being viewed as one of the most wide-open in recent years. Le Pen’s participation ensures that the National Rally retains its status as one of the key players in the upcoming race.
