A new video on YouTube channel of the analytical center “Club of Experts” examined the options for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey. Ukrainian experts expressed their opinions and gave forecasts regarding the political situation in this country.
Mohammad Farajallah, editor-in-chief of the Internet publication “Ukraine in Arabic,” stressed that the upcoming elections in Turkey are of great importance for the region and arouse the interest of the international community.
“Turkey is an important player on the world stage, and its domestic policy directly affects the situation in the region and beyond. Therefore, the results of the elections will be monitored with great attention,” he noted.
In turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics, shared his vision of possible scenarios after the elections. He stressed that there are two main political forces fighting for leadership in Turkey: the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu, allied with five other opposition political forces.
“Two scenarios are possible. If the AKP wins, we can expect a continuation of the policies Erdoğan has pursued in recent years, with a focus on enhancing domestic stability and strengthening Turkey’s position in the international arena. On the other hand, if the CHP wins, we may see a more pro-Western orientation and increased cooperation with the European Union and the United States,” the expert said.
According to Urakin, a win for either candidate in the first round is unlikely, and the winner of the presidential race will most likely be determined by a second ballot.
Both experts also noted the significance for Ukraine of the election results in Turkey.
“Ukraine has close economic and political ties with Turkey, so the election results will have a direct impact on our relations and cooperation. Over the last year, as a result of the war, trade turnover between our countries has decreased, but I believe that if the current political course is maintained, we can expect further development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and Turkey,” said Maxim Urakin.
In addition, the expert cited statistics on exports from Ukraine to Turkey in 2022, according to which it has decreased significantly.
“Last year, the volume of Ukrainian exports to Turkey was about 3 billion dollars as opposed to more than 4 billion in 2021, that is, we see a drop of 29%,” Urakin said.
According to Mohammad Farajallah, in the current geopolitical situation Turkey is an important partner of Ukraine in various spheres, which include both military support (UAV Bayraktar, light armored vehicles) and cooperation in economy, energy and other spheres.
The expert also suggested that if the opposition wins, Turkey is more likely to join sanctions against Russia.
“Naturally, the new government will be as close to the West as possible and can be included in a common unified Western policy against Russia. This, of course, will be to our advantage. But these are just preliminary words for now, perhaps they (the opposition – ed.) will come, look at the numbers and continue Erdogan’s current policy,” said Farajallah.
It should be noted that on the eve of the voting, Erdoğan lags behind his main rival Kılıçdaroğlu by more than 5%, according to a poll published by the Turkish sociological center KONDA on May 11.
Thus, Erdoğan gets the support of 43.7 percent of respondents, while Kılıçdaroğlu gets 49.3 percent.
The poll also reveals that neither candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, which means that if these data are confirmed in the elections, the winner will be chosen in the second round, which is scheduled for May 28.
The KONDA polling service conducted personal interviews with 3,480 people in 35 provincial centers.
At the same time, according to other surveys, in particular the Istanbul-based Center for Operational Social Research (Yöneylem), Erdoğan’s party was supported by 35.2% of voters in the parliamentary elections and Kılıcdaroğlu’s CHP by 30.7%.
For more on Turkey’s elections, see the video:
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CLUB_EXPERTS, ELECTIONS, ERDOĞAN, MOHAMMAD FARAJALLAH, TURKEY, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The opposition Likud party and its partners in Israel’s right-wing bloc may win a parliamentary majority in Israel’s parliamentary elections, The Jerusalem Post reports, citing polling results at the exit from polling stations.
Netanyahu’s bloc, which includes the Likud, the Religious Zionists, the single list of ultra-Orthodox parties Yahadut HaTorah and the ultra-religious Shas, can win 61 seats out of 120, according to exit polls. The Times of Israel predicts that the bloc Netanyahu will have 61-62 seats, Channel 12 predicts that the Netanyahu bloc will have 61 seats, Channel 13 – 62 seats, while the bloc of current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, according to the exit polls of these two channels, has 54-55 seats.
According to the Channel 12 exit poll, the Likud party, led by Netanyahu, could get 30 seats. According to the Channel 13 exit poll, Likud could win 31 seats. Lapid’s Yesh Atid party won 24 seats, according to exit polls from both channels.
However, the balance of power after the counting of all votes may still change, but the Israeli media is generally inclined to believe that, following the results of the current elections, Netanyahu may be able to regain power and become the head of government again. The final results will be known in the coming days, but by Wednesday morning, with the exception of some details, it will already be clear what the balance of power in the 25th Knesset will be, media say.
Polling stations in Israel closed at 22:00 (22:00 Kyiv time). The Israelis elected a new unicameral parliament, the Knesset.
The Ifop Public Opinion Institute predicts that the presidential coalition “Together!” comes out in the second round of parliamentary elections with a result of 210-250 mandates, which means first place and the loss of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
The presidential team’s main competitor, the left-wing New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, comes in second with 150-180 seats in the lower house of parliament, as expected.
The media called the expected result of Marine Le Pen’s “National Rally” a big breakthrough. The French nationalists will have 80 to 100 seats, which will allow them to form their own political faction in the National Assembly.
The centre-right “Republicans” are predicted to receive 60 to 70 seats.
The French elected 577 deputies. For an absolute majority, it was necessary to win 289 seats in the National Assembly.
In the first round a week ago, Macron’s “Together” coalition finished almost on a par with the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), led by leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Germany may change its position on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline after the election of a new chancellor, which will be held in the autumn of 2021, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said.
“In fact, there are many voices against North Stream 2 in Germany and Berlin’s position may change after their upcoming elections,” Kuleba said in an interview with the Hungarian edition of Ceenergy News.
He said that neither has the United States given up on sanctions completely, saying it is rather a break. “Our struggle to preserve Ukraine’s national interests and European security will continue. As one golden rule of diplomacy puts it, nothing is fully agreed before everything is agreed,” the minister added.
According to him, Ukraine adheres to a “clear position” on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. “It is not only about Ukraine and our economic interests. It is very dangerous for the overall Euro Atlantic security and unity to give such a powerful political weapon as Nord Stream 2 in Vladimir Putin’s hands [Russian President],” he said.
Kuleba added that compromises on security have never worked well in the past. “Our main expectation is to convince our German and U.S. partners to take the existing threat seriously. This is what Ukrainian diplomacy is currently working on,” the Foreign Minister said.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky says that the implementation of the Big Construction program will not end after the local elections scheduled for October 25.
“To implement the Comfortable Country program we started Big Construction. And this is not just the name of the next state program. Everyone can see that the country is really undergoing a lot of construction works. We unite Ukraine, not only with the help of ideology but with roads and bridges as well,” Zelensky said during his annual address to the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday, October 20.
“This year these are 4,000 km of national roads and 2,000 km of local roads, 100 schools, 100 kindergartens, 100 sports facilities, 210 reception services with the latest medical equipment. When we announced these numbers at the beginning of the year, many did not believe. But most of these facilities are already finished, and by the end of the year we will fulfill this plan,” the head of state added.
The president stressed that the current government is not delaying, but finishing the construction of a number of facilities, which began in previous years.
“Despite the long tradition of Ukrainian policy, Big Construction will not end after the local elections, but will become even larger,” Zelensky added.
The electoral process of local elections, scheduled for October 25, 2020, started in Ukraine on September 5.
Previously the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Ukraine said the start date of the campaign was adopted at a meeting of the CEC on August 30 in compliance with the requirements of the Electoral Code of Ukraine.
“At the same time, the commission took into consideration the resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of July 15, 2020 on appointment of the next local elections in 2020, resolution No. 160 of the CEC of August 8, 2020 on the first elections of deputies of rural, town, city councils of territorial communities and the corresponding rural, town, city heads on October 25, 2020, resolution No. 161 on the impossibility of holding the first elections of deputies of individual rural, town, city councils of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the corresponding rural, town, city heads on October 25, 2020 and resolution No. 176 of August 14, 2020 on the appointment of the first elections of deputies of district councils for October 25, 2020,” the report says.
