Investors are awaiting a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Powell is expected to reiterate the US central bank’s commitment to rapidly raising rates to curb inflation.
Also in the spotlight is the news that British energy market regulator Ofgem will raise its electricity bill cap by 80% to £3,549 a year in October, after raising it by 54% in April.
The composite index of the largest companies in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by 10:59 Moscow time increased by 0.09% and amounted to 433.77 points.
The German DAX index rises by 0.32%, the French CAC 40 – by 0.27%, the British FTSE 100 – by 0.47%. The Italian FTSE MIB and the Spanish IBEX 35 are up 0.31% and 0.41% respectively.
French consumer confidence rose unexpectedly to 82 in August from 80 in July, the lowest level since June 2013. The indicator rose for the first time in eight months. Analysts on average predicted the indicator at the level of 79 points, writes Trading Economics.
Leading index of consumer confidence in Germany, calculated by the research company GfK, fell to a minimum since 1991, due to concerns about rising energy prices.
The value of the September index fell to minus 36.5 points compared to minus 30.9 points a month earlier. Analysts on average predicted a decline to minus 31.8 points, according to Trading Economics.
Shares of SAS AB rise in price by 1%. The Scandinavian airline increased its net loss in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 due to flight cancellations and pilot strikes.
The price of Deutsche Lufthansa AG shares increases by 0.2%. The German carrier intends to continue talks with the union representing the company’s pilots amid wage disputes that threaten the company with strikes. Meanwhile, the union has already begun preparations for a strike.
Among the growth leaders in the composite regional index are traded shares of SKF AB, which produces health and hygiene products, (+6.2%), the Swedish oil and gas Orron Energy (+4.9%) and the Swiss online pharmacy Zur Rose Group AG (+ 3.8%).
A number of EU regions will experience an unprecedented drought for another three months, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday, citing an EU report.
Drought and high air temperatures are expected in the western Mediterranean until November 2022, the report says.
It is noted that in particular this will affect Portugal and Spain.
Nearly half of the EU countries currently have a drought warning in place. In addition, the deterioration of the situation is observed in Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg and others.
Earlier it was reported that, according to the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, the current drought seems to be perhaps the worst in the last 500 years. Final data at the end of the season may confirm this preliminary estimate.
The countries of Europe, which this summer are suffering from wildfires associated with abnormal heat and drought, broke a sad record in 2022: 662.8 thousand hectares were devastated by fire.
Among the states most affected by fires this year are Spain (246 thousand hectares of burned forests), Romania (150 thousand hectares), Portugal (75 thousand hectares) and France (61 thousand hectares).
The spot price of gas in Europe soared above $2,700/ths. cube m for the news about the new repair on the Nord Stream highway.
The price of the nearest (September) TTF futures on the ICE Futures exchange on Friday evening reached $2,712 per thousand cubic meters.
On Friday evening, Gazprom announced that the only working gas-compressor unit of the Nord Stream main’s departure compressor station at the Portovaya CS would be shut down from August 31 to September 2 for three days for maintenance and scheduled preventive work.
The gas pipeline is capable of transporting up to 167 million cubic meters per day. m of gas, but the capacity was reduced due to the violation of the maintenance schedule for the equipment of the starting station of the sea main – the compressor station “Portovaya”. It is equipped with gas compressor units from Rolls-Royce, whose gas turbine business has been taken over by Siemens. Due to Canadian sanctions imposed in response to the military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, one turbine did not return to Russia from the Siemens Energy repair base on time. In the meantime, the time has come for a major overhaul of other engines, both in connection with the operating time between overhauls and in connection with breakdowns.
The lowest corn harvest since 2007-2008 is expected in the countries of the European Union, which is caused by an abnormal drought that has gripped the main corn-producing countries in the past few weeks.
Against this background, the EU imports 13 million tons of corn from Ukraine to cover its needs, according to the website of the electronic grain exchange GrainTrade with reference to the report of the chief analyst of Argus Media (France) Nathan Cordier, which he announced during the meeting of grain traders “Trend and Hedge Club”.
According to him, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary are the largest corn producers in the EU, and production performance in these countries will be disappointing in 2022.
“We expect Romania to harvest 8 million tons of corn, Hungary 4.5 million tons, and Bulgaria 15 million tons. These countries exported corn to Spain, Italy and Turkey, which were the main markets. low harvest in Brazil, exported grain to the Middle East and North Africa. This season, we expect that the supply of exports will be low,” GrainTrade quoted Cordier’s report as saying.
The expert noted that three heat waves have occurred in France since the beginning of corn sowing, so its harvest is expected at 11.2 million tons, and will be harvested from only 68% of the area. Thus, the yield of corn in France will be only 8 tons / ha, which is the worst result of the country in the last 20 years.
According to Cordier’s forecasts, Europe will be forced to import 23 million tons of corn to cover its needs, of which it will import 13 million tons from Ukraine, and another 5 million tons from Brazil.
As reported, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky in early August announced an increase in the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this season by approximately 5-7 million tons – up to 65-67 million tons from 60 million tons.
At the same time, in the July report, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10.2 million tons. The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
In early July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast – up to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons.
According to her forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+ 8.3% compared to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
Approximately 60% of the EU and Britain this year are experiencing the effects of drought, which is exacerbated by abnormal heat, the Axios portal reported on Wednesday, citing the European Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service.
“The drought, coupled with high temperatures, is leading to an increase in the risk of fires due to lack of rain and to the appearance of dead wood,” the service said in a statement.
At the same time, EU countries such as France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are facing water shortages. Such conditions have a negative impact on agriculture, energy and river navigation.
The UK’s main weather service said the south and east of England experienced their hottest July on record. Meteorologists expect the dry weather to last until October.
Employees of the Atmospheric Monitoring Service earlier, after analyzing data for the end of July, found that by the middle of the month up to 45% of the EU was in the drought zone, and 15% had a serious water shortage.
Also in July, service specialists predicted that dry weather conditions in the region would continue in August and September.
As of July 20, 2022, the number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe was 3,709.33 thousand, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported on your site.
In the three weeks since June 29, the growth amounted to about 135 thousand, while in the previous two weeks – 170 thousand, and since the end of May – about 775 thousand.
Poland (about 40 thousand), Czech Republic (about 13.5 thousand), Great Britain (about 13 thousand) and Italy (about 11 thousand) showed the largest increase.
According to UNHCR data collected from national governments, the largest number of refugees with temporary protection status in Poland is 1 million 234.7 thousand, while 4.968 million people arrived in the country from Ukraine, according to the Polish border service, from the beginning of the war to , and in the opposite direction departed to Ukraine 3.045 million.
Following are Germany and the Czech Republic, where the number of refugees registered for temporary protection from Ukraine amounted to 670 thousand respectively (the data does not change from June 21) and 396.18 thousand.
The UN, referring to government data, indicates that in total in Germany, where Ukrainians are allowed to stay without registration until the end of August, 893 thousand refugees from Ukraine were recorded. Based on the data presented, a significant proportion of them have not yet applied for temporary protection status in that country.
In the Czech Republic, the situation, according to UN information, is different: almost all arrivals applied for protection status – 396.18 thousand out of 396.33 thousand.
In the vast majority of other countries, the picture is similar to the Czech Republic: the statistics of registered refugees is completely or almost equal to the statistics of those who applied for protection status, which is probably due to the peculiarity of their registration and the completion of the 90-day period of stay under the visa-free regime. An exception, similar to Germany, is only Romania – 45.53 thousand with the status of 84.53 thousand refugees recorded in the country and Estonia – 30.29 thousand out of 46.73 thousand.
Italy is still in fourth place in terms of the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 143.13 thousand, and Spain closes the top five, in which the number of registered refugees increased by 5 thousand in three weeks, to 128.89 thousand.
Bulgaria follows with an indicator of 123.36 thousand, the only one in which the number of registered with the status of temporary protection is much higher than the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 86.58 thousand.
More than 50 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection are also in the UK – 99.7 thousand, France (data as of July 4) – 92.16 thousand (an increase of 4.2 thousand), Slovakia – 85.77 thousand (growth by more than 6 thousand).
Among these countries are also Austria – 76.21 thousand, the Netherlands (data as of July 5) – 68.05 thousand, Lithuania – 59.47 thousand, Switzerland – 57.02 thousand and Belgium – 51.12 thousand.
Following are Portugal – 47.75 thousand, Ireland – 44.58 thousand (an increase of 4.2 thousand), Belgium – 48.38 thousand, Sweden – 40.45 thousand, Latvia – 35.80 thousand. , Finland – 32.67 thousand, Denmark – 29.83 thousand and Hungary – 26.93 thousand, as well as the above-mentioned Romania and Estonia.
From 10 to 25 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection in Norway – 21.06 thousand, Greece – 16.80 thousand, Croatia – 16.09 thousand and Cyprus – 14.37 thousand.
The UN also indicated the countries in which refugees from Ukraine were recorded, but there is no data on their status: Turkey (data as of May 19) – 145 thousand, Moldova – 86.24 thousand, Georgia – 23.11 thousand, Azerbaijan – 4.80 thousand, Albania – 2.50 thousand, North Macedonia – 1.64 thousand, Armenia – 0.49 thousand and Bosnia and Herzegovina – 0.30 thousand. Separately, it is worth specifying Russia and Belarus, the Ukrainian border with which, respectively, 1 million 745.80 thousand and 16.68 thousand people crossed. The UN information indicates that in the Russian Federation all those who crossed the border were recorded, while in Belarus – 10.35 thousand. There is no data on obtaining the status by them, as well as data on crossing the border of Ukraine in the opposite direction.
In total, according to the UN as of July 19, 9.567 million people left Ukraine since the beginning of the war, while 3.793 million returned (without data from Hungary, the Russian Federation and Belarus). According to this information, the total number of refugees since the beginning of the war can be estimated at about 5 4-5.5 million people, including about 1.75 million people to Russia.
“Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, almost a third of Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes. This is the largest displacement crisis in the world to date. In Ukraine, more than 6.3 million people remain displaced by the war,” UNHCR points out, although an estimate three weeks ago internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine was higher – 7.1 million.
