The government maintains its forecast of 7% growth in Ukrainian exports in 2025, despite a smaller-than-expected harvest of late crops this year, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said.
“This is an absolutely objective, I would even say trivial forecast. Obviously, there may be a more optimistic forecast,” he told Interfax-Ukraine on the sidelines of the conference ”Reform Matrix: Fundamentals of enhancing economic growth for EU accession” conference in Kyiv.
At the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine in the tables to the Inflation Report improved its estimate of growth in exports of goods and services in 2025 to only 0.9% from 0.5%, or $57.7 billion, but in the text of the report itself predicted a decline in exports of goods and services in 2025 due to a smaller harvest and weak demand for IT services, with growth resuming in 2026 due to the gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions.
At the same time, Kachka emphasized that it is necessary to take into account not only the volume of the entire harvest, but also the mix of crops in it, especially in terms of exports.
“For example, if you look at the fact that this year we have a smaller share of corn, respectively, we have a larger share of soybeans, a larger share of rapeseed, a larger share of sunflower – these are the goods for which we have better prices in general,” he explained.
The sales representative added that the price environment has changed.
“Therefore, growth in grains and oilseeds for the next year is quite possible and organic. And now, when we analyze the market, we realize that it is actually possible to earn more with less,” Kachka summarized regarding agricultural exports.
Regarding exports of metallurgical products, he noted that much will depend on decisions in North America regarding duties, as this is an important market for Ukraine.
According to him, exports of metallurgical products are growing and may exceed 20% this year, both for semi-finished products, pig iron, and finished products.
“The question is what the security situation will be like, what the energy situation will be like, etc., but export growth is also possible,” the Ukrainian trade representative said.
According to the NBU’s balance of payments, exports of goods and services from Ukraine increased by 8.4% to $41.33 billion over the first nine months of this year, including 10.3% to $28.64 billion in goods and 4.4% to $12.69 billion in services.
Imports of goods and services increased by 0.9% to UAH 66.66 billion, including 6.2% to UAH 49.65 billion, while services decreased by 1.9% to UAH 17.01 billion.
According to EastFruit analysts, Ukraine in the 2024/25 season continues to actively catch up with the world leaders in frozen raspberry exports, which remain Serbia and Poland. However, Poland is increasingly dependent on re-exports of products, mainly of Ukrainian origin, to hold on to its leadership position.
During the first three months of the season, from July to September inclusive, Ukraine exported more than 28 thousand tons of frozen raspberries and blackberries, which is a new record for this period. Exports thus increased by 36% compared to the same period last year and by 45% compared to 2022. It is noteworthy that the increase in exports comes against the backdrop of numerous reports from farmers about a lower raspberry crop in 2024.
“Although Poland remains the main market for frozen raspberries from Ukraine, its share in total exports continues to decline. Ukraine is gradually starting to enter with frozen raspberries directly into traditional markets for Poland, such as Germany and France. For example, this season the share of the German market in frozen raspberry exports from Ukraine already exceeds 20%,” says Andriy Yarmak, economist at FAO Investment Department.
Among the main markets for Ukrainian raspberries at the beginning of the season are also the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Austria, Belgium and Italy. Also in the new season, the first batches of Ukrainian frozen raspberries have already been shipped to such important and promising markets as the USA and Canada.
According to analysts, even Serbia, the world leader in raspberry exports, purchased a large batch of produce from Ukraine in September 2024, apparently for re-export.
As of November 18, Ukraine exported 16.431 mln tonnes of grains and pulses since the beginning of 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July-2023-June-2024), of which 2.032 mln tonnes were shipped this month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported citing the State Customs Service.
According to a report on the Ministry’s website, as of the same date last year, the total figure for shipments abroad was 12.033 million tons, including 2.793 million tons in November.
In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has exported 8.351 million tons of wheat (610 thousand tons in November), 1.74 million tons of barley (41 thousand tons), 10.8 thousand tons of rye (0.2 thousand tons), and 6.048 million tons of corn (1.367 million tons).
The total export of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of November 18 is estimated at 28.9 thsd tonnes (3.3 thsd tonnes in November), including 26.2 thsd tonnes of wheat (2.8 thsd tonnes).
Global coffee exports in the 2023/24 marketing season (October-September) increased by 11.7% to 137.27 million bags (60 kg each), according to a report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO).
In particular, shipments of green (unroasted) coffee increased by 11.8% to 123.75 million bags.
Among the macro-regions, South America retains its position as the largest exporter of coffee, which in 2023/24 season increased shipments by 30.7% to 66.13 million bags. In particular, Brazil recorded a record figure of coffee shipments of 49.03 million bags.
Sales of coffee from Asia and Oceania decreased by 6.7% (to 40.62 mln bags) in the season that ended, while Africa increased its supplies by 17.3% (to 16.02 mln bags).
In January-October this year, Ukrainian mining companies increased their exports of iron ore by 96% in physical terms compared to the same period last year, up to 27 million 790.352 thousand tons.
According to the statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), foreign exchange earnings from iron ore exports increased by 59.4% to $2 billion 341.865 million in the period under review.
Exports of iron ore were carried out mainly to China (34.88% of supplies in monetary terms), Poland (17.47%) and Slovakia (16.85%).
In January-October 2024, Ukraine imported iron ore worth $261 thousand in the total volume of 835 tons, while in January-October 2023, it imported $118 thousand in the total volume of 168 tons. Imports this year were carried out from the Netherlands (36.26%), Poland (24.43%) and Norway (21.37%).
As reported, in 2023, Ukraine decreased exports of iron ore in physical terms by 26% compared to 2022 – to 17 million 753.165 thousand tons, foreign exchange earnings from iron ore exports amounted to $1 billion 766.906 million (down 39.3%). Iron ore was exported mainly to Slovakia (28.39% of supplies in monetary terms), the Czech Republic (19.74%) and Poland (19.56%).
Last year, Ukraine imported iron ore worth $135 thousand in the total amount of 250 tons. During this period, imports were made from Norway (34.81%), Italy (28.89%) and the Netherlands (28.89%). While in 2022, iron ore was imported for $65 thousand in a total volume of 101 tons.
Revenues from exports of grains, oilseeds, meal and oil in the first quarter of the 2024/2025 season (July-October this year) amounted to $6.1 billion, up $1.6 billion, or 35.6%, compared to the previous season, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported on Facebook.
“Over 4 months, Ukraine has received significantly more export revenue from the sale of wheat, barley, rapeseed and soybeans compared to last season,” the industry association stated.
According to the chart below, in July-October 2024, sales of wheat on foreign markets brought Ukraine $1.456 billion, which is 1.9 times more than a year earlier, while revenue from rapeseed exports increased by 50.6% to $1.119 billion, corn by 32% to $849 million, soybeans by 2.1 times to $477 million, and barley by 3 times to $286 million.
At the same time, the revenues from sunflower oil exports in July-October 2024 decreased by 0.7% to $1.356 bln, and sunflower meal by 9.2% to $344 mln compared to the same period last year.
