According to Experts.news, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has sharply raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat and feed grain for the 2026/27 season—to a total of nearly 12 million metric tons.
In the USDA’s July forecast, ending stocks for these two groups were estimated at approximately 6.26 million metric tons, while in the August WASDE report, the figure rose to 11.93 million metric tons. Thus, in just one month, the estimate increased by 5.67 million metric tons, or approximately 91%.
The most significant revision was made to the corn outlook.
The USDA raised its forecast for corn ending stocks from 2.06 million to 4.86 million metric tons—more than a 2.3-fold increase. This represents an increase of 2.8 million metric tons.
The reason is almost entirely due to changes in two indicators: the corn harvest forecast was increased by 1.8 million metric tons—to 31.8 million metric tons—while exports were simultaneously reduced by 1 million metric tons—to 22 million metric tons. The USDA left domestic corn consumption unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.
As for wheat, ending stocks were increased even more in percentage terms—from 2.53 million to 4.8 million metric tons, or by approximately 90%.
For the entire feed grain group, the stock forecast was raised from 3.73 million to 7.13 million metric tons.
The USDA attributes the deterioration in export prospects to logistical disruptions resulting from the escalation of the conflict in the Azov and Black Seas.
An even more dire scenario was previously presented by the Kyiv office of the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). It expects that, if maritime logistics problems persist, Ukraine’s carryover stocks of all grain crops could approach 25 million metric tons.
According to FAS/Kyiv, the total storage capacity for grains and oilseeds in Ukraine exceeds 74 million metric tons, but certified grain warehouses provide approximately 23 million metric tons of capacity. Ukrainian authorities have also acknowledged the need for an additional 10–12 million metric tons of temporary storage capacity in the event of prolonged disruption to exports via the Black Sea.
This issue has direct economic implications for farmers. Given a large harvest and limited exports, domestic supply is increasing, which could put pressure on domestic purchase prices while simultaneously driving up costs for storage and alternative logistics.
As of August 13, the situation with the ports remains challenging: Russian attacks continue to target Ukrainian port infrastructure, particularly along the Danube corridor.
Thus, the main risk for the Ukrainian grain market in the 2026/27 season is no longer just the size of the harvest. If restrictions on maritime exports remain in place, Ukraine may face the need to store millions of metric tons of additional grain domestically.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million metric tons compared to the July report—to 25.4 million metric tons, forage grain by 2.31 million metric tons, to 38.59 million metric tons, including corn by 1.8 million metric tons, to 31.8 million metric tons.
At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine for this marketing year has been lowered by 1 million metric tons to 13.5 million metric tons, and for feed grains by 1.21 million metric tons to 24.27 million metric tons, including corn, which is down by 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million metric tons.
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, nearly all of this difference will be absorbed by carryover stocks for this marketing year: for wheat, the estimate has been increased by 2.27 million metric tons to 4.80 million metric tons; for feed grains, by 3.40 million metric tons to 7.13 million metric tons; and for corn, by 2.80 million metric tons to 4.86 million metric tons.
“Global trade volumes (for wheat) have been reduced by 0.3 million metric tons to 212.7 million metric tons due to a decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, which was only partially offset by increased exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are declining due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between these two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” the USDA noted.
At the same time, the forecast for global carryover stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year has been increased by 0.4 million metric tons—to 273.3 million metric tons—as growth in Ukraine and Russia more than offsets declines in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries.
As for corn, the export forecast for this marketing year has even been increased by 0.6 million metric tons—to 210.48 million metric tons—driven by the United States.
For Russia, the USDA lowered its forecast for wheat exports by 1.5 million metric tons—to 46.0 million metric tons—and for feed grains by 0.4 million metric tons—to 7.58 million metric tons, including corn, which was reduced by 0.2 million metric tons—to 3.8 million metric tons.
As previously reported, in the quarterly report from the USDA office in Kyiv in early August, the forecast for exports from Ukraine in this marketing year was revised downward much more sharply: wheat by 3.7 million metric tons to 10.8 million metric tons, corn by 9 million metric tons to 14 million metric tons, but the forecast for barley was increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 2.5 million metric tons.
As previously reported, starting July 22 of this year, due to an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships—including the use of missiles—ship calls to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have been suspended.
“The prolonged blockade of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/2027 marketing year, Ukraine is expected to export approximately 64.4 million metric tons of agricultural products. At the same time, due to the prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could be reduced by nearly half—to about 29.6 million metric tons,” the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine noted on August 7.
Recently, Taras Vysotsky, head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, provided Reuters with another updated estimate for grain exports—38–40 million metric tons instead of the previous estimate of 43 million metric tons.
During the 2025/2026 season, Ukraine earned a record 250.8 million euros in revenue from frozen raspberry exports, a 65% increase over the previous season.
Between June 2025 and May 2026, Ukrainian companies exported 63,300 metric tons of frozen raspberries, increasing the physical volume of shipments by 7%, according to data from the July analytical report by the Ukrainian Berry Growers Association, published on August 7.
Thus, the main factor driving the growth in export revenue was not an increase in volume but a significant rise in the price of Ukrainian berries. The average export price was 3.96 euros per kg, which is 54% higher than in the previous season.
In May, the final month of the 2025/2026 season, Ukraine exported approximately 2,900 metric tons of frozen raspberries at an average price of 3.95 euros per kilogram. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Germany were among the main export destinations.
This revenue growth continues a trend that began as early as the 2025 calendar year. At that time, frozen raspberry exports rose from 55,700 metric tons in 2024 to 60,700 metric tons—an increase of approximately 9%—while their value jumped from 129.3 million euros to 216.7 million euros.
The average price of Ukrainian raspberries rose significantly throughout last year. While it stood at about 2.78 euros per kg at the beginning of 2025, it exceeded 3.8 euros in the second half of the year and reached 4.29 euros per kg in December.
Poland Remains the Main Market
Poland remains the largest buyer of Ukrainian frozen raspberries and is also a major European processing and re-export hub.
In 2025, Ukraine supplied 24.1 thousand metric tons of frozen raspberries to Poland. The Polish market accounted for 39.7% of Ukraine’s total export revenue from this product, or 86.1 million euros. A year earlier, that share stood at 31.8%.
Germany is the second-largest market. Direct Ukrainian shipments there in 2025 totaled 14.1 thousand metric tons, compared to 15.4 thousand metric tons the previous year. At the same time, the “Berry Growers of Ukraine” Association suggests that a portion of German demand is increasingly being met through Polish intermediaries.
The Czech Republic retained its third-place position. Ukraine supplied approximately 10,000 metric tons of frozen raspberries there annually, and the value of shipments in 2025 rose from 24.1 million euros to 39.1 million euros, primarily due to higher prices.
The price situation remains favorable for Ukrainian producers
The “Berry Growers of Ukraine” Association expects that in the 2026/2027 season, the situation on the European market may remain favorable for Ukrainian exporters.
Among the factors supporting prices, analysts cite problems with the raspberry harvest in Serbia and the uneven condition of plantations in Poland. In its July report, the association estimates Serbia’s 2026 harvest to be 20–30% below normal levels due to drought.
This potentially reduces supply from one of Europe’s traditionally largest producers and exporters of frozen raspberries and opens up additional opportunities for Ukrainian suppliers.
As a result, Ukraine is gradually increasing not only the physical volume of berry exports but also the value of its shipments. In the 2025/2026 season, price increases had a significantly greater impact on export revenue than increases in tonnage, bringing revenue from frozen raspberries to a historic high of 250.8 million euros.
Azerbaijan intends to increase electricity exports to neighboring countries and enter the European energy market, said the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev.
“By expanding our export capabilities to neighboring countries, we will also enter the European market. After all, we have already entered the European market with our oil and gas, but we want to enter it with electricity as well,” Aliyev said in an interview with the Azerbaijani state television channel AzTV.
According to him, the only route for supplying electricity to Europe currently runs through Georgia and Turkey, but Azerbaijan intends to expand the number of export routes. In this regard, a feasibility study for the Black Sea Energy project has already been prepared.
In addition, in November 2024, as part of COP29, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to lay an electrical cable along the bottom of the Caspian Sea.
“Azerbaijan will establish itself as a country that generates, receives, transmits, and exports electricity,” Aliyev said.
He also noted that the capacity of solar power plants in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) could reach 500 MW, and up to 1 GW in the future.
“The main issue here is export capacity. To achieve this, of course, negotiations must be held with the relevant authorities in the respective countries, and these are already underway,” the president said.
At the same time, Aliyev noted that the existing power transmission lines from the NAR to Iran and Turkey have limited capacity, which needs to be increased.
“That is, for exporting 500 megawatts—or even 1,000 megawatts—of electricity, there are currently two routes: one to Turkey and the other to Iran. But in the future, this could also include Europe,” he said.
The head of state added that Azerbaijan’s plans to export electricity are in line with the interests of the countries “surrounding us.”
“It’s just that coordination efforts here must be carried out properly, at the necessary level, and negotiations must be accelerated. I can say that negotiations on this matter are currently underway with both Turkey and Iran. It’s too early to say anything for sure,” the president said.
Ukraine’s trade surplus in ferrous metals and products made from them in January–July 2026 fell by approximately 40% compared to the same period last year—to approximately $465 million.
The calculation is based on data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
Over the first seven months, Ukraine exported $1.678 billion worth of ferrous metals and an additional $507.5 million worth of metal products. Total export revenue for these two groups amounted to approximately $2.185 billion.
At the same time, imports of ferrous metals reached $1.023 billion, while imports of ferrous metal products amounted to $697.6 million. Thus, total imports amounted to approximately $1.720 billion.
The difference between exports and imports narrowed to approximately $465 million.
For comparison: based on the annual trends published by the State Customs Service, in January–July 2025, total exports of these two commodity groups amounted to approximately $2.385 billion, imports to approximately $1.612 billion, and the trade surplus to approximately $773 million.
Thus, the annual trade surplus decreased by approximately $308 million, or nearly 40%.
The main reason for this decline is the opposing trends in export and import flows. Total exports of ferrous metals and metal products over the seven-month period decreased by approximately 8.4%, while imports of these goods increased by approximately 6.7%.
The imbalance is particularly noticeable in the metal products segment: exports here totaled $507.5 million, while imports amounted to $697.6 million, resulting in a trade deficit of about $190 million.
Ferrous metals are currently offsetting this deficit: their exports exceed imports by approximately $655 million. However, at the same time, foreign exchange proceeds from their exports fell by 7.6%, while imports rose by 7.2%.
This trend indicates a noticeable decrease in the positive contribution of metallurgical products to Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in 2026.
In January–July 2026, Ukrainian steelmakers saw their foreign exchange revenue from ferrous metal exports decline by 7.6% compared to the same period last year—to $1.678 billion from $1.816 billion.
This is according to data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
The share of ferrous metals in Ukraine’s total merchandise export revenue over the first seven months fell to 6.95% from 7.79% in January–July 2025, or by 0.84 percentage points.
Thus, metallurgical products continue to account for a significant portion of Ukraine’s merchandise exports, but their share is shrinking amid a decline in the sector’s foreign exchange earnings.
At the same time, imports of ferrous metals into Ukraine continued to grow. In January–July, they increased by 7.2% to $1.023 billion.
Despite the contrasting trends in exports and imports, Ukraine maintained a positive trade balance in ferrous metals of approximately $655 million over the seven-month period.
The situation with fabricated metal products deteriorated separately. Exports of these products fell by 10.8% to $507.5 million, while imports rose by 6% to $697.6 million. As a result, the foreign trade deficit in fabricated metal products stood at about $190 million.
By comparison, at the end of 2025, export revenue from ferrous metals rose by 7.85% to $3.339 billion, and their share of total merchandise exports reached 8.25%. In 2024, exports of ferrous metals increased by another 16.9%—to $3.096 billion.
Thus, after two years of growth in the metallurgical sector’s export revenues, the trend reversed in 2026: revenues are declining, while imports of ferrous metals and metal products continue to rise.
