The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its September review lowered its estimate of India’s rice exports next year to 17.5 million tons from 19 million tons in the August forecast. This year, exports are expected to reach 20 million tons.
World rice prices have soared to 15-year highs amid export restrictions imposed by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, the USDA said. In July, the country imposed a ban on the export of most rice varieties, followed by an export duty on steamed rice and a minimum export price for basmati. Importers switched to other major suppliers, such as Thailand and Vietnam, and as a result, their export prices rose to the highest levels since 2008.
At the same time, even before India’s restrictions, rice prices were rising amid strong demand from importers and declining production in a number of countries.
In 2008, India, at that time the second largest exporter of rice, also imposed export restrictions, which led to a sharp rise in prices. After the restrictions were lifted in 2011, the country increased supplies to the global market and became the largest exporter the following year, and has maintained this position since then. In 2022, India exported slightly more than the next four suppliers combined, accounting for about 40% of global supplies. Since 2020, the country has been supplying white rice at the lowest prices, especially to sub-Saharan Africa. The sharp rise in prices is expected to have a significant impact on these import-dependent countries.
Despite the significant increase in export prices, they have not reached the record levels of 2008, as export restrictions are less severe this time. In addition, Vietnam, which stopped exports in 2008, is now resuming shipments.
According to the USDA forecast, global rice exports this year will amount to 53.11 million tons (56.12 million tons last year). Next year, supplies may decline to 52.1 million tons (the forecast was lowered from 53 million tons, according to the August estimate).
In January-August this year, Ukraine reduced exports of carbon steel semi-finished products in physical terms by 50.9% year-on-year to 780,413 thousand tons.
According to the statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), exports of semi-finished carbon steel products amounted to $410.674 million in monetary terms over the period (down 59.3%).
The main exports were made to Bulgaria (35.79% of supplies in monetary terms), Poland (27.85%) and Romania (7.51%).
In January-August, Ukraine imported 92 tons of semi-finished products from China worth $169 thousand.
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine decreased exports of carbon steel semi-finished products in physical terms by 72% compared to the previous year – to 1 million 899.729 thousand tons, and in monetary terms by 70.9% – to $1 billion 191.279 million. The main exports were made to Bulgaria (26.55% of supplies in monetary terms), Poland (13.97%) and Italy (12.13%).
In addition, Ukraine imported 5,558 thousand tons of similar products in 2022, which is 85.7% less than in 2021. In monetary terms, imports decreased by 86% to $3.634 million. Imports were carried out from the Russian Federation (96.92% of supplies before the war), China (1.84%), and Romania (1.21%).
In January-August this year, Ukraine increased exports of ferroalloys in physical terms by 20.2% compared to the same period last year, up to 312.445 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service, exports of ferroalloys decreased by 41.3% to $271.280 million in monetary terms.
The main exports were to Poland (55.89% of supplies in monetary terms), Turkey (12.16%) and the Netherlands (8.09%).
In addition, in the period under review, Ukraine imported 5.059 thousand tons of these products, which is 69.6% less than in January-August 2022. In monetary terms, imports decreased by 66.3% to $20.971 million.
Imports were carried out mainly from India (19.14%), China (17.26%) and Armenia (16.98%).
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine reduced exports of ferroalloys in physical terms by 47.7% compared to the previous year – to 349,560 thousand tons, in monetary terms by 46% – to $564.136 million. At the same time, the main supplies were made to Poland (53.25% of exports in monetary terms), the Netherlands (13.13%) and Romania (5.66%).
In addition, last year Ukraine imported 20.546 thousand tons of these products, which is 65.5% less than in 2021. In monetary terms, imports decreased by 59.1% to $72.705 million. Imports were carried out mainly from Norway (22.67%), China (15.60%) and Kazakhstan (14.10%).
The business of the Stakhanov and Zaporizhzhia Ferroalloy Plants (SZF and ZZF) was organized by PrivatBank (Kyiv) before the nationalization of the financial institution. Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant is controlled by EastOne Group, established in the fall of 2007 as a result of the restructuring of Interpipe Group, and Privat Group.
In January-August this year, Ukrainian enterprises increased exports of ferrous scrap by 3.9 times compared to the same period last year, up to 117,464 thousand tons.
According to the statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of scrap metal amounted to $34.127 million in the period under review (up 2.7 times).
At the same time, the export of scrap metal has been growing since March: in January, about 8.28 thousand tons of scrap were exported, in February – 16.5 thousand tons, in March – 15.45 thousand tons, in April – about 16.19 thousand tons, in May – 21.003 thousand tons, in June – 14.6 thousand tons, in July – 9.567 thousand tons, in August – 15.849 thousand tons.
Scrap metal was exported to Poland (86.20%), Greece (7.91%) and Bulgaria (3.19%).
In the first two months of the year, the country did not import scrap metal; in March-August, it imported 681 tons of scrap worth $261 thousand (49.43% from Slovakia, 21.07% from Poland, 10.73% from Estonia).
Earlier, Ukrmetallurgprom President Oleksandr Kalenkov stated in a column on the Interfax-Ukraine website that scrap metal is exported through the European Union, which has a preferential export duty of EUR3 per ton, and from there the raw materials are redirected to real customers. Exporting raw materials directly to customers would cost EUR180 in export duty, and the Ukrainian budget has already lost UAH 350 million.
According to him, the State Bureau of Investigation has already taken an interest in such export schemes.
The head of Ukrmetallurgprom called for a temporary ban on the export of ferrous scrap to provide steelmakers with strategically important raw materials in the ongoing war.
“If the scrap metal remains in the country, more than 500,000 people will be employed and the country will receive millions in foreign exchange earnings from steel exports. At the same time, the military will also benefit, as steelmakers do a lot to help the military by purchasing equipment and vehicles for them and even producing bulletproof vests. No one benefits from scrap exports. That is why the government should be proactive and temporarily ban exports until the situation stabilizes and ceases to threaten national economic security,” Kalenkov said.
He clarified that a ton of scrap metal processed into steel brings in 10 times more to the budget than the EU export duty, which is about $300 per ton.
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine reduced exports of ferrous scrap by 11.5 times compared to the previous year to 53,557 thousand tons, while in monetary terms it decreased by 12.4 times to $19.271 million. At the same time, last year the country reduced imports of scrap metal in physical terms by 12.6 times to 1,824 thousand tons. tons, compared to the previous year – to $19.271 million tons, in monetary terms by 12.9 times – to $3.488 million. Imports of scrap metal in 2022 were mainly from Turkey (78.92% of supplies in monetary terms), the Russian Federation (13.25%) and Cyprus (5.08%); exports – to Turkey (38.97%), Poland (34.25%) and Greece (10.12%).
Successful exports of Ukrainian grain under the Black Sea Grain Initiative have helped to reduce world prices and strengthen food security, according to a report published on Twitter by the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on Friday.
“During this initiative, more than 32 million tons of food entered the world market, and the food price index fell by 23% compared to its peak in March 2022. Developing countries have particularly benefited from lower prices, as well as from direct grain imports from Ukraine,” the statement said.
At the same time, Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has led to a reduction in exports from Ukraine, which, according to British intelligence, “is a clear attempt to degrade the Ukrainian economy and its ability to maintain its military capabilities.”
The report emphasizes that the agricultural sector accounted for 40% of Ukraine’s exports before the war and remains vital to the country’s economy. In total, food exports from Ukraine amounted to $28 billion in 2021.
“Ukraine has succeeded in using alternative methods of grain exports, such as river, rail, and road transport; however, it is unlikely that this will match the capacity of the Black Sea export routes,” the British intelligence service said.
In July 2023, the Export Credit Agency (ECA) set a new milestone in supporting Ukrainian exporters by insuring their obligations under loans issued for the execution of foreign economic contracts totaling UAH 1.035 billion. According to the ECA website, the amount of financing provided amounted to UAH 85.9 million.
Among the insured loans in July 2023, almost UAH 80 million were portfolio loans. The largest of them were issued in Kyiv (UAH 20 million), Ivano-Frankivsk (UAH 19.9 million), and Dnipro (UAH 19.4 million) regions.
It is also noted that as of August 1, 2023, the ECA supported exports of more than UAH 6.2 billion by insuring loan agreements in the amount of UAH 815.4 million.
The leaders in terms of the amount of insured loans are Oschadbank (UAH 256.3 million), Ukrgasbank (UAH 229 million) and Raiffeisen Bank (UAH 210 million). They are also the first in terms of the volume of supported exports (UAH 3.22 billion, UAH 1.51 billion and UAH 0.6 billion, respectively).
PJSC Export Credit Agency is a government-authorized agency that supports and promotes the export of Ukrainian goods (works, services). The ECA protects Ukrainian exporters from the risk of non-payment and financial losses associated with the fulfillment of foreign trade contracts.
