The Experts Club think tank has analyzed the state of the French economy and provided its forecasts for the whole of 2025. At the beginning of 2025, the French economy is showing signs of slowing down due to internal and external factors, including the escalation of trade disputes with the United States.
Current economic indicators
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), France’s GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. This modest growth was mainly driven by inventory accumulation in the chemical, pharmaceutical, and agro-industrial sectors, which added 0.5 percentage points to GDP. However, domestic demand remains weak, with consumer spending stagnating and business investment declining by 0.1%. Foreign trade also had a negative impact, reducing growth by 0.4 percentage points due to a 0.7% decline in exports and a 0.4% increase in imports.
Impact of US trade tariffs
The introduction of new tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump, including a 25% duty on cars, steel, and aluminum, is putting significant pressure on France’s export-oriented industries. Companies such as Airbus are looking for ways to circumvent these tariffs, for example by delivering aircraft to US airlines via third countries.
The French government has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing uncertainty in global trade. The Bank of France has also confirmed this forecast, noting that growth remains positive but is slowing compared to previous years.
Forecast for the end of 2025
Economists expect France’s economic growth to remain weak in the second half of 2025, with a possible improvement in 2026. The main risk factors remain ongoing trade disputes with the US and domestic political uncertainties. However, France is committed to maintaining economic stability through fiscal measures and stimulating domestic demand.
Ukraine and France have signed seven agreements in the healthcare sector worth a total of EUR 51 million, including the construction of a children’s rehabilitation center in Vinnytsia and the reconstruction of a rehabilitation department in Ladyzhyn (partner – Ginger International, funding amount – EUR 15 million).
According to the Ministry of Health, the agreements also provide for the provision of portable X-ray machines to 75 medical institutions in 5 regions: Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Mykolaiv and Odesa (partner – DMS Imaging, the amount of funding is EUR 10.98 million), providing 58 hospitals throughout Ukraine with the latest technologies for rehabilitation after amputations (partner – Dessintey, the amount of funding is EUR 8 million).
Also, agreements were signed for the purchase of 700 mechanized cardiopulmonary resuscitation devices (EUR 5.92 million), development of telemedicine networks in Odesa, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions (partner – C3Medical, amount of funding – EUR 4.35 million), creation of a network of autonomous micro-clinics based on rehabilitation facilities in Kyiv, Lviv and Poltava (partner – Schiller Medical, the amount of funding is EUR 4.1 million), as well as provision of 150 ultrasound diagnostic systems in medical institutions in all regions of Ukraine (partner – Sonoscanner, the amount of funding is EUR 2.98 million).
The Ministry of Health notes that, taking into account the agreements signed today, France has allocated a total of EUR 130 million to support the medical sector of Ukraine. The projects will be funded by the French government and implemented through French medical companies.
The grant agreement between the French and Ukrainian governments provides for the implementation of 12 more projects in the areas of infrastructure, energy, demining, and water supply worth about €149 million.
In the framework of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s state visit to Paris, the Foundation for the Development of Culture and Art of Uzbekistan and the French Ministry of Culture signed a number of agreements on cooperation in the field of culture.
The documents were signed by the head of the Foundation, Gayane Umerova, and the French Minister of Culture, Rachida Dati.
One of the agreements is a declaration on cooperation between the cultural institutions of the two countries. It envisages the development of academic exchanges between the Alfred Cortot School of Music in Paris and the State Conservatory of Uzbekistan, as well as support for joint film projects.
An agreement was also signed to hold the exhibition “Uzbekistan: Avant-Garde in the Desert” in France and an international conference on museums and artificial intelligence in Samarkand as part of the 43rd session of the UNESCO General Conference.
France has one of the most complex and multi-level taxation systems in place, covering both legal entities and individual entrepreneurs. Let us consider the main taxes applicable to these categories of taxpayers.
Taxes for legal entities
1) Corporate income tax (Impôt sur les Sociétés, IS):
Its standard rate is 25% on company profits. A reduced rate of 15% is possible and applies to the first 38,120 euros of profit for small and medium-sized enterprises with an annual turnover of less than 7.63 million euros.
Some companies can choose between being taxed under the income tax system (Impôt sur le Revenu, IR) or the corporate tax system (IS), depending on their legal form and capital structure.
2) Value added tax (Taxe sur la Valeur Ajoutée, TVA), its rates are also diversified. The standard rate is 20%, and the reduced rates are: 10%, 5.5% and 2.1% are applied to certain goods and services.
3) There is also a tax called the territorial economic contribution (Contribution Économique Territoriale, CET). It consists of two components – a tax on the value of commercial real estate (Cotisation Foncière des Entreprises, CFE) and a contribution to the value added of business (Cotisation sur la Valeur Ajoutée des Entreprises, CVAE). The rates depend on the location and turnover of the company; the maximum CVAE rate is 1.5% for companies with a turnover of more than EUR 50 million.
4) There is also a so-called vehicle tax (Taxe sur les Véhicules de Sociétés, TVS). It is levied on companies that use cars for commercial or business purposes. The rates depend on the type of vehicle, its age, and CO₂ emissions.
Taxes for individual entrepreneurs (IEs) are also quite complicated.
1) Income tax (Impôt sur le Revenu, IR) with a progressive scale from 0% to 45%, depending on annual income. The income of individual entrepreneurs is taxed on the same scale as the income of individuals. There are various taxation regimes for individual entrepreneurs, such as “micro-entrepreneur” with a simplified accounting and taxation system.
2) Social contributions – individual entrepreneurs are required to pay social and health insurance contributions, the amount of which depends on the type of activity and income level.
3) Value added tax (TVA). Individual entrepreneurs are required to register as VAT payers if their annual turnover exceeds certain thresholds, for example, for trade in goods it is 91,900 euros, and for the provision of services – 36,800 euros.
Like almost any other country in the world, there is a real estate tax (Taxe Foncière). It is levied on property owners, regardless of their residency status. The rates are determined by local authorities and depend on the cadastral value of the property.
There is also still a tax on residence (Taxe d’Habitation), which is levied on persons living in real estate as of January 1 of the reporting year. This tax is being gradually abolished for most households; the full transition is expected to be completed in the coming years.
The luxury tax or Impôt sur la Fortune Immobilière (IFI) is levied on individuals whose real estate in France is valued at more than EUR 1.3 million. There is a progressive scale from 0.5% to 1.5% of the property value.
The French tax system is characterized by a high degree of progressivity and diversity of taxes, which requires careful planning and accounting when doing business. It is recommended to consult with professional tax advisors to ensure compliance with current legal requirements and optimize the tax burden.
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In 2023, dairy farms in the European Union produced 160.8 million tons of raw milk, which is 0.8 million tons more than in 2022 and 15.8 million tons more than in 2013, according to a study by Eurostat.
According to it, most of the milk produced in the EU is used for butter and cheese production. Thus, in 2023, 149.3 million tons of raw milk were supplied to dairy plants, which was used to produce a number of fresh and ready-made dairy products.
In turn, EU dairies produced 22.0 million tons of drinking milk and 7.8 million tons of fermented milk products in 2023. At the same time, 58.2 million tons of whole milk and 17.4 million tons of skim milk were used to produce 10.6 million tons of cheese. Another 45.4 million tons of whole milk was used to produce 2.3 million tons of butter, the study says.
Germany became the leader in the production of milk and dairy products in the European Union, accounting for 19% of the total production of drinking milk. It was also a leading producer of fermented milk products (27%), butter (20%) and cheese (22%).
Spain was the second largest producer of drinking milk (15% of the EU total), followed by France (13%). The Netherlands was the second largest producer of fermented milk products (17%), followed by Poland (10%).
France was the second largest producer of both butter and cheese (18% of the EU total for each product). Ireland was third in butter production (13%) and Italy was third in cheese production (13%).
France’s public debt at the end of the second quarter of 2024 rose to 112 percent of GDP, up from 110.5 percent at the end of March.
This was reported by the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Research (Insee).
From April to June, the debt increased by €68.9 billion, reaching €3,228.4 billion.
You can learn more about public debt and the economy in the video on the YouTube channel of the Experts Club think tank: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE