The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 3% to 3.5%, according to its June forecast.
GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in both 2021 and 2022, the EBRD said in its June regional economic prospects.
According to the report, the main risks are associated with the slow progress of reforms in the country and the relatively slow pace of vaccination, the bank’s analysts say.
Although the economy contracted 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 due to prolonged quarantine restrictions, there are indications that it is gradually returning to growth in the second quarter thanks to higher commodity prices, the EBRD said.
The decline in Ukraine’s GDP in January-April 2021 slowed down to 0.2%, according to an estimate by the Ministry of Economy.
“The Ministry of Economy estimates a slight decrease in GDP at 0.2% (a 2% drop in the first quarter of 2021, by 4.9% in the four months of 2020),” the ministry said in its review of economic activity in April this year, posted on its website.
Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.9%, up from 4% in the February forecast.
As evidenced by the May forecast, which is available to Interfax-Ukraine, the analysts have worsened their expectations for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 to 3.7% compared to the February forecast being 4.2%, and in 2023 they expect the decline in rates to continue – growth to 2.9%.
Strong growth in industrial production in April, a year after a series of lockdowns, marks a turning point that will see GDP grow by almost 5% this year, and then just over 3.5% in 2022, Oxford Economics said.
At the same time, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate in 2021 is expected at UAH 28.60/$1, in 2022 – UAH 29.30/$1, in 2023 – UAH 29.40/$1, according to Oxford Economics.
The analysts have raised their inflation forecast to 7.2% this year (in the February forecast it was 6.9%), and in the next two years they expect prices to rise by 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively.
The analysts continue to expect the current account to return to a deficit of 1.5% of GDP this year, while in 2020 the current account surplus reached 4% of GDP. According to their estimates, in 2022 and 2023 this indicator will remain in deficit and will amount to 2% and 1.7%, respectively.
Private investment is projected to recover cautiously, so the recovery will be more dependent on household and government spending. However, rising demand will push companies to further expand their production capacity from 2022.
Oxford Economics expects the budget deficit this year to be 4.6%, and in 2022 and 2023 it will decrease to 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively.
At the same time, the analysts predict a reduction in the ratio between public debt and GDP from 59.2% in 2020 to 56% in 2021, as well as to 52.4% and 49.7% in the next two years.
Oxford Economics expects Ukraine to be able to unlock the IMF program in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, political risks remain high, according to the forecast.
Concorde Capital investment company expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2021 with inflation of 8% and an average annual rate of UAH 27.60/$1, according to the company’s updated macroeconomic forecast publon Tuesday.
According to the forecast, at the end of the year the exchange rate will be about UAH 28.20/$1, the current account balance will remain positive – $0.5 billion and reserves will grow to $30.5 billion.
Concorde Capital estimates that GDP fell by 2.7% in the first quarter.
The company also said that the revaluation of the hryvnia stopped due to the increased risk of renewed military aggression, and the same risk led to a further weakening of nonresidents’ interest in the Ukrainian debt market.
Concorde Capital estimates the total need of the state budget for financing at $11.8 billion, of which $4.4 billion will be raised in the domestic market via government bonds, $1.8-4.6 billion from international financial institutions, which forces the country to look for another $5.5-2.8 billion elsewhere.
The company said that as of April 19, net attraction in the government bond market amounted to only UAH 6 billion, although last year the result was even worse – minus UAH 3 billion.
Concorde Capital expects growth to slow down to 3.5% next year, while inflation will drop to 5.5%.
Ukraine’s economy after falling by 5.1% in 2020 will grow by 4% this year, with a slight increase in inflation (December from December) from 5% to 5.8% -6%, Citi analysts stated in the forecast of the global economy.
In their opinion, consumer spending will become the key growth driver against the backdrop of a planned 30% increase in the minimum wage from UAH 5,000 to UAH 6,500.
The experts expect the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2022, generally assessing growth prospects in 2022 at 3% with inflation falling to 5.3%.
The bank forecasts that the National Bank will increase the refinancing rate by 50 b.p. in the second quarter of 2021, to 6.5% in order to balance price pressure caused by the rise in inflation. In particular, Citi expects the consumer price index to rise to 5.8% by the end of 2021.
According to the survey, the analysts predict the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate by the end of this year to UAH 29.47/$1 with an average annual value of UAH 28.92/$1, and in the next year to UAH 30.67/$1 and 30.12 UAH/$1, respectively.
The analysts noted the institutional regression that occurred in 2020, but they are inclined to believe that the need to finance a large budget deficit will be an incentive for Ukrainian authorities to continue cooperation with the IMF. In their opinion, ensuring the independence of the National Bank and finding a way out of the situation that arose after the Constitutional Court had recognized a number of anti-corruption norms as unconstitutional will be of decisive importance.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects an actual budget deficit in 2020 at the level of 6-6.5% of GDP instead of the 7.5% foreseen in the forecast, Deputy Governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said.
“This year’s budget deficit is set at 7.5% of GDP. This is absolutely correct from the countercyclical point of view. But, apparently, the actual deficit will be lower… We estimate that the budget deficit will be around 6 -6.5% of GDP,” he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, the budget deficit fell below the forecast due to the strong underfunding of existing expenses. “Catching up on them in recent months will not be easy given the funding opportunities,” he said.
