Real GDP percentage changes over previous period in 2010-2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its forecast for the country’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 2 percent from 0.3 percent in its January forecast, which is largely due to lower security risks, the restoration of the energy system, as well as soft fiscal policy.
“The economy will return to growth as early as this year and accelerate in the years ahead on the back of the reduced security risks in the forecast. Given the rapid recovery of the energy system, as well as the soft fiscal policy, the forecast of economic growth in 2023 has been improved from 0.3% to 2%,” the NBU said in a press release on Thursday.
It is indicated that the reduction of security risks from next year, which is allowed in the baseline scenario of the NBU forecast, will accelerate economic growth – up to 4.3% in 2024 and 6.4% in 2025.
Besides, de-occupation of territories and full opening of the Black Sea ports will gradually increase industrial production and crops.
The central bank also expects domestic demand to expand due to the return of some forced migrants.
The regulator noted that under the assumptions of the danger situation, no significant power shortages are envisaged in the future, except for local and situational deficits in the second half of the year.
At the same time, an increase in budget expenditures against the background of significant volumes of international financial aid will support economic activity and consumption.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product fell by 29.1% in 2022 after growing 3.4% in 2021 due to full-scale Russian military aggression, the State Statistics Service said.
According to its data, Ukraine’s nominal GDP last year was markedly higher than most analysts’ forecasts and amounted to UAH 5.191 trillion.
Gosstat specified that the deflator change for 2022 as a whole amounted to 34.3%, including 36.5% in the fourth quarter, compared to 38.1% in the third quarter, 37.7% in the second quarter and 25.5% in the first quarter.
According to his data, Ukraine’s real GDP decreased by 31.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter and 14.9% in the first quarter.
According to Oleksiy Blinov, head of the analytical department of Sense Bank, in dollar terms the nominal GDP for last year was about $159 billion.
For 2021, the nominal GDP of Ukraine, according to the State Statistics Committee, was equal to 5.451 trillion UAH, or more than $200 billion.
Real GDP percentage changes over previous period in 2018-2022
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Even after the end of the war, 860,000 to 2.7 million Ukrainian refugees may stay abroad, which will lead to a loss of GDP of 2.55 to 7.71%, according to a study of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).
“According to our calculations, from 860 thousand to 2.7 million Ukrainians may stay abroad. More prone to return are the elderly, people with lower levels of education, as well as those who worked before the war, “- said the experts of the center.
They recalled that in total there were 3.8-4.7 million Ukrainian refugees abroad (except Russia and Belarus) by the end of 2022, and about 1.5 million more in Russia.
According to the survey conducted by Info Sapiens, the ratio of adults to children is 1:1.07. Among adults, women aged 35 to 49 are the most numerous – 42.2%, while men of that age make up 6.4%.
Women 25-34 years old make up 18.5%, men 3.2%, and those 18-24 years old 8.2% and 3.5%, respectively.
According to the survey, at the end of the year 11.3% of refugees aged 35-49 years definitely or rather did not plan to return to Ukraine, 13.1% of refugees aged 18-24 years, 8.2%-8.3% of refugees aged 25-34 years, and 50-65 years.
It is also stated that almost a quarter of the residents left the Zaporizhzhya region, and almost a fifth from Kiev and the Kiev region, while from the western regions – less than 10%.
Among the main reasons for refugees to settle in a new place outside of Ukraine the CEC named the prolongation of the war, the positive attitude of Europeans to Ukrainians, the prospects for children.
In addition, those who left abroad from the war zone may have nowhere to return, so their return depends on the rapid reconstruction of their regions or support to move to other regions of Ukraine.
Forecast of dynamics of changes in GDP in % for 2022-2024 in relation to previous period
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
