Ukraine in the current season can grow and harvest 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds, approximately from 20 million hectares.
The corresponding estimates of the possible harvest were published on the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) on Monday.
“Ukraine, in the conditions of aggression from Russia, will still be with grain. This year, despite the fact that 5 million hectares cannot be sown or it will be impossible to harvest on them, Ukraine can receive about 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 20 million hectares. At the same time, the domestic market of Ukraine consumes about 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds annually,” the association’s report says.
In addition, subject to the reorientation of exports from seaports blocked by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation to land transportation, the country will be able to export up to 35 million tons of agricultural crops in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June).
UGA recalled that Ukraine in the current MY 2021/2022 due to the Russian blockade of seaports will not be able to export about 20 million tons of grain, which will be forced to store in elevators as transitional balances for the next MY.
According to the association, today the capacity of alternative logistics routes bypassing seaports is 600,000 tons of crops per month, but this figure can be increased by increasing the capacity of railway and logistics crossings at the borders with EU countries. Thus, thanks to the optimization of logistics, the export of grain and oilseeds in MY 2022/2023 can be expected at the level of 35 million tons.
“The current developments of the government and the public in the field of logistics and exports allow expanding the throughput to 2 million tons of crops per month. To reach the level of exports of 35 million tons of grains and oilseeds per year, it is necessary to further expand the throughput at the EU borders to 3 million tons per month,” the UGA said.
According to her, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in the current MY will decrease by 1.8 times – from 33 million tons in 2021/2022 MY to 18.2 million tons, but this figure is almost three times more than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. Taking into account the transitional stocks of wheat of the last harvest of almost 10 million tons, exports of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, with such harvest indicators and taking into account large transitional stocks, can amount to about 10 million tons.
In addition, the country can harvest up to 6.2 million tons of barley this season (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons), so its export in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 2 million tons.
The corn harvest can be expected at the level of 23.1 million tons (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons), while its exports may reach about 20 million tons.
The rapeseed harvest can be expected at the level of 1.5 million tons (2.9 million tons), while its export in 2022/2023 MY is expected at the level of 1.3 million tons.
The soybean harvest can be expected at the level of 1.8 million tons (in 2021 – 3.5 million tons), and exports in 2022/2023 MY are projected at the level of 0.6 million tons.
“Thus, Ukraine will be guaranteed to have sufficient grain reserves, while the countries of the world will not receive a significant amount of grain from Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and rising prices, which, according to UN estimates, could cause famine in many countries of the world. In particular, Ukraine traditionally exports about 30-35% of grain to the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, 30-35% to the countries of South and Southeast Asia, and about 35-40% to European countries,” the UGA concluded in its forecast.
As reported, before the Russian military invasion, Ukraine monthly exported up to 5 million tons of agricultural products through the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev, however, due to the blockade of these ports by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation, the country can transport no more than 0.5 million tons of grain monthly, which leads to a monthly shortage $1.5 billion in export earnings.
Ukraine in 2021, according to the State Statistics Service, harvested a record harvest of 85.7 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 32% higher than in 2020, including 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%).
In addition, 593.9 thousand tons of rye were harvested in Ukraine (+30% by 2020), 471 thousand tons of oats (-7.3%), 204.2 thousand tons of millet (-20.2%) , 173.9 thousand tons of sorghum (+63.2%), 106.0 thousand tons of buckwheat (+8.5%), 48.6 thousand tons of rice (-20%), 32.3 thousand tons triticale (-7.8%), as well as 681 thousand tons of other leguminous crops.
Among other crops in the country last year, 16.38 million tons of sunflower were harvested (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24. 4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminary estimated at 53.3 million tons, which is 51% lower than the record figure of the previous season, due to the Russian military invasion and ongoing hostilities, this year’s harvest may be the lowest in the last 10 -15 years.
“We estimate the total production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 at 53.3 million tons, which is 51% lower than the record figure of the previous season. At the same time, for grains, the harvest may be minimal over the past 15 years, and for oilseeds – over the last decade,” such harvest estimates are given on the website of the APK-Inform agency on Thursday.
The organization clarified that for the 2022 harvest, the area under winter grain crops decreased by 7% compared to last year – to 7.6 million hectares, which practically coincides with the figure for 2020. At the same time, the area under spring grain and leguminous crops, the sowing of which began this month, due to the occupation of part of the territories and hostilities by Russian invaders, can be reduced much more significantly – by 39%, to 4.7 million hectares.
In turn, the total area sown with oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 may be about 6.8-6.9 million hectares, taking into account the areas already sown under winter rapeseed.
At the same time, a change in the structure of oilseed crops is expected. In particular, the share of sunflower acreage is projected to decrease from 73% in 2021 to 61% in 2022, while the share of rapeseed will increase from 12% to 21%, and soybean from 15% to 17%.
It is specified that as a result of hostilities, the sowing campaign in nine regions of the country looks very dangerous: Chernihiv, Sumy, Kiev, Kharkov, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev. Partially risky areas for sowing are currently noted in Zhytomyr, Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
The agency emphasized that in addition to a decrease in the area under crops, a general decrease in crop yields is expected in Ukraine due to the limited access of farmers to the necessary resources, such as fuel, fertilizers, plant protection products, etc. However, even the projected volumes of crop production are enough to meet the domestic food needs of Ukraine .
As reported, as of March 25, Ukraine sowed 150,000 hectares of agricultural land in regions where there are no active hostilities against the troops of the Russian invaders.
Due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, a decrease in the acreage of high-margin crops (sunflower and corn) is expected this season, while increasing the acreage of crops that are easier to produce, but important in terms of food security, peas, barley and oats.
In 2021, during the spring sowing season, Ukraine sowed 14 million hectares of agricultural land, including sunflower – 6.5 million hectares, corn – 5.3 million hectares, barley – 1.35 million hectares, peas – 0.242 million hectares, sugar beet 0.227 million ha, oats – 0.194 million ha, spring wheat – 0.176 million ha.
In 2021, Ukraine harvested 85.7 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 32% higher than in 2020, including 32.07 million tonnes of wheat (28.9% more), 41.87 million tonnes of corn (38.2% more) and 9.42 million tonnes of barley (23.3% more). Such final data on harvest volumes for the last year are published on the website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. In addition, 593,900 tonnes of rye were harvested in Ukraine (30% more compared with 2020), 471,000 tonnes of oats (7.3% less), 204,200 tonnes of millet (20.2% less), 173,900 tonnes of sorghum (63.2% more), 106,000 tonnes of buckwheat (8.5% more), 48,600 tonnes of rice (20% less), 32,300 tonnes of triticale (7.8% less), as well as 681,000 tonnes of leguminous crops.
Among other agricultural crops in the country last year, 16.38 million tonnes of sunflower were harvested (25% more compared to 2020), 10.8 million tonnes of sugar beet (18.1% more), 3.5 million tonnes of soybeans (24.4% more), 2.92 million tonnes of rapeseed and 42,000 tonnes of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
In terms of fruit and vegetable crops, Ukraine in 2021 harvested 21.35 million tonnes of potatoes (2.5% more compared to 2020), 9.93 million tonnes of vegetables (2.9% more), 6.8 million tonnes of fodder corn (3.0% more), 5.17 million tonnes of fodder beet (6% less), 2.24 million tonnes of fruit and berry crops (10.7% more) and 0.26 million tonnes of grapes (8.3% less).
Most of all last year, the area under fodder corn decreased by 19.1% compared to 2020, to 216,400 hectares, rice – by 12.0%, to 10,000 hectares, sorghum – by 11.9%, to 41,600 hectares, while the largest increase in areas was recorded under oil flax (growth by 1.95 times), to 27,400 hectares, rye – by a quarter, to 172,900 hectares and buckwheat – by 9%, to 92,000 hectares.
The yield of the vast majority of agricultural crops improved last year. In particular, the yield of wheat was 4.53 tonnes per ha (19% more compared with 2020), corn – 7.67 tonnes per ha (36.5% more), barley – 3.82 tonnes per ha (18.6% more), rye and triticale – 3.44 tonnes per ha (3.6% and 2.1% more respectively), oats – 2.63 tonnes per ha (2.7% more), sorghum – 4.16 tonnes per ha / ha (86% more), millet – 2.35 tonnes per ha (46% more), other legumes – 2.19 tonnes per ha (13.5% more).
Also, the yield of sugar beet was 47.76 tonnes per ha (15% more compared with 2020), fodder corn – 31.5 tonnes per ha (27% more), fodder beet – 29.44 tonnes per ha (2% more), vegetable crops – 21.54 tonnes per ha (4% more), potatoes – 16.64 tonnes per ha (6% more), fruit and berry crops – 11.86 tonnes per ha (12% more), grapes – 7.58 tonnes per ha (0.3% more), rapeseed – 2.92 tonnes per ha (27.0% more), soybeans – 2.64 tonnes per ha (+29% more), sunflower – 2.46 tonnes per ha (22% more), oil flax – 1.55 tonnes per ha (39% more).
At the same time, the yield of rice decreased to 4.91 tonnes per ha (8.1% less) and buckwheat – to 1.15 tonnes per ha (0.9% less).
Thus, the total harvest of all indicated agricultural crops in Ukraine last year amounted to 165.1 million tonnes, while the harvest of grain, leguminous and oilseeds indicated by the State Statistics Service was 108.5 million tonnes.
Ukraine’s revenue from export of grain crops in 2021 amounted to $12.3 billion, the largest trading partners were China, which imported $2.55 billion, as well as Egypt ($1.39 billion) and Turkey ($0.92 billion), the Institute of Agrarian Economics (IAE) reported on its website on Thursday.
“2021 was characterized by the further strengthening of the position of China, which in 2020 for the first time took the top among 10 largest importers of Ukrainian grain. In four years, starting from 2018, this country has increased its grain purchases from Ukraine almost five times, to $2.55 billion. At the same time, China’s share in the value of domestic grain exports increased from 19.7% in 2020 to 20.7% in 2021,” the IAE said, citing expert Bohdan Dukhnitsky.
According to the IAE, last year Egypt increased imports of Ukrainian grains by 24%, from $1.12 billion to $1.37 billion, but its share of their total exports decreased from 11.9% to 11.2%.
“Turkey, which in 2020 ranked only sixth in the top 10, moved up to the third spot last year, increasing the value of purchases of Ukrainian grain to $0.92 billion. In addition, in 2021, there were changes in the top 10 largest buyers of grain from Ukraine: Iran and Pakistan pushed South Korea and Bangladesh out of the top 10,” the expert said in the IAE report.
Other major grain importers from Ukraine were Indonesia with $750 million, Spain with $645 million, the Netherlands with $552 million, Iran with $533 million, Pakistan with $355 million, Libya with $342 million and Tunisia with $306 million.
The IAE said that in total, these 10 countries had dominated in the value of all grain purchases in Ukraine in 2021 (their share was more than two thirds).
As reported, since the beginning of 2021/22 (July-June) and as of February 2, Ukraine exported 38.63 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops (31.6% more compared to the same date of the previous year), including 17.08 million tonnes of wheat (30.4% more), 15.64 million tonnes of corn (32.6% more), 5.48 million tonnes of barley (38.7% more), 0.16 million tons rye (92 times more), 63,800 tonnes of flour (27.0% less).
Mariupol seaport (Donetsk region) on December 30 put into operation a laboratory to control the quality of transshipped grain crops, its launch became one of the stages of construction of a grain terminal in the port, the first stage of which should begin work in 2022 and will allow transshipment of up to 1 million tonnes of agricultural crops per year, according to the website of the state-owned enterprise.
“The management of Mariupol seaport expects to attract to the new terminal part of the export grain flows from the eastern and central regions of Ukraine next year. Negotiations with large agricultural companies are ongoing,” the company said in a statement.
The commissioned laboratory is certified in accordance with the requirements of international standard ISO 10012: 2005. The laboratory is capable of analyzing samples of wheat, barley, corn, peas, sorghum and oats.
As reported, the state-owned enterprise Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA), the agricultural exporter Cofco Agri Resources Ukraine, the state-owned enterprise Mariupol seaport and STT LLC signed a memorandum of cooperation on the development of the port of Mariupol in October 2019.
The memorandum provides for the implementation of an infrastructure project in the port of Mariupol, which will attract a total of more than UAH 1.3 billion of investments in infrastructure development and will increase cargo traffic through it by 2.3 million tonnes.
Within the framework of this document, it is planned to reconstruct two berths, a grain terminal and create a single transshipment complex for food and liquid food cargo.
Ukraine since the beginning of this season and as of November 25, 2021 has threshed 79.73 million tonnes (3.06 million tonnes more per week, November 18 through November 25) of the main grain and leguminous crops from an area of 15.19 million hectares, according to a report on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Friday.According to the ministry, the harvesting of grains and legumes has been completed in five regions: Dnipropetrovsk (4.81 million tonnes in total), Mykolaiv (3.79 million tonnes), Kherson (3.51 million tonnes), Donetsk (2.27 million tonnes) and Ivano-Frankivsk (0.93 million tonnes) region.At the same time, the leaders in harvesting were Vinnytsia with an indicator of 6.21 million tonnes, Poltava (5.57 million tonnes), Chernihiv (5.43 million tonnes), Odesa (5.13 million tonnes), Kharkiv (4.87 million tonnes), Dnipropetrovsk (4.81 million tonnes) and Cherkasy (4.31 million) regions.In total, 102.23 million tonnes (3.48 million tonnes more per week) of major cereals, legumes, oilseeds (as well as sugar beets dug out) have been harvested this season from a total area of 23.97 million hectares.As the ministry said, 35.07 million tonnes of corn from 4.78 million hectares (87% of the forecast) were harvested as of the indicated date.In addition, 16.17 million tonnes of sunflower (0.38 million tonnes more) were harvested from 6.47 million hectares (99% of the forecast).Farmers of Ukraine also dug up 10.53 million tonnes (0.28 million tonnes more) of sugar beet from 222,700 hectares (98% of the forecast).The ministry marked the end of the harvesting of buckwheat – 110,000 tonnes from 84,200 hectares.The Ministry of Agrarian Policy also reminded of the end of the harvesting of rapeseed, of which 2.91 million tonnes were harvested from an area of 1.01 million hectares, 182,800 tonnes millet were harvested from 77,600 hectares. In addition, the soybean harvest amounted to 3.42 million tonnes on 1.28 million hectares.The average yield of wheat as of November 25 was 4.62 tonnes per ha, barley – 3.91 tonnes per ha, corn – 7.325 tonnes per ha, sunflower – 2.497 tonnes per ha, soybeans – 2.673 tonnes per ha, rapeseed – 2.86 tonnes per ha, sugar beet – 47.29 tonnes per ha, peas – 2.419 tonnes per ha, buckwheat – 1.301 tonnes per ha, millet – 2.45 tonnes per ha.
