In Ukraine the corn harvest of 2022 remains unharvested from 15% of the area, so because of the wintering of part of the crop in the fields its quality will be much worse than in a more favorable 2021.
The head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Foodstuffs of Ukraine Mykola Solsky said at a briefing in Kiev on Monday that the final quality of corn harvested in 2022 will be judged in February, after the end of its harvesting.
“Day by day its (unharvested corn – IF-U) quality worsens. Of course, farmers, elevator operators and traders know how to work with it and level out the quality indicators. However, compared with last year (2021 – IF-U) the quality will be much worse. We will be able to say exactly how much worse at the end of February, because significant amounts of corn remain in the fields,” the minister said.
Solsky recalled that by the beginning of last year’s winter corn was not harvested from one-third of the area, while now this figure is about half as much, but it is still too much.
“We have a much worse crop this year because for a number of reasons we have entered a prolonged harvest, which in itself is quite difficult: severe temperature fluctuations prevent farmers from working and damage the quality of grain. I think the percentage of losses, depending on the farmer, can be from a few percent to 15%. It depends on the type of corn, moisture content, with which he “came in” at the beginning of the frost, the current temperature drop,” – the Minister explained.
Earlier Minagropolitiki reported that by January 13, Ukraine harvested a total of 23.5 million tons of corn from 3.6 million hectares, including 1.4 million tons of corn from 0.2 million hectares during the week of January 6-13. 15% of the planned areas are not harvested.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes (including 40 million tons of corn), and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
Ukrainian agrarians harvested 75.03 million tons of major crops from the total area of 17.96 million hectares by January 6, 2023, 700 thousand tons of corn was harvested from 0.1 million hectares last week, the harvesting of which was previously stopped due to adverse weather conditions.
As reported on the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Friday, the total area of agricultural land, from which the harvested, increased at the expense of harvested corn by 1 percentage point (p.p.) – to 93% of the previously planned areas.
In terms of crops harvesting of wheat, barley, peas, rapeseed and sugar beets was completed. During the week the area of harvested corn increased by 3 p.p. – to 81% of the planned indicators, while the area of harvested buckwheat (98%), as well as millet, sunflower and soybeans (99%) remained unchanged.
According to Minagropolitiki, the final yield of wheat in the current season amounted to 20.2 million tons from 5 million hectares, barley – 5.8 million tons from 1.7 million hectares, rape – 3.2 million tons from 1.1 million hectares, pea – 269 tons from 118 thousand hectares, sugar beet – 9 million tons from 180 thousand hectares.
In addition, January 6, 22.1 million tons of corn (+0.7 million tons per week) from 3.4 million hectares (+0.1 million hectares), 10.5 million tons of sunflower from 4.8 million hectares, 3.7 million tons of soy from 1.5 million hectares, 158 tons of buckwheat from 116 thousand hectares, and 102 tons of millet from 44.7 thousand hectares were gathered in total.
According to the Ministry, the average yield on all crops in the current season was 46.4 c/ha, including corn – 64.8 c/ha, wheat – 40.5 c/ha, of barley – 34.7 centners/ha, rape – 28.6 centners/ha, soy – 24.3 centners/ha, pea – 22.8 centners/ha, millet – 22.8 centners/ha, sunflower – 21.7 centners/ha, buckwheat – 13.7 centners/ha, sugar beet – 501 centners/ha.
It is reported that farmers of Nikolaev, Odessa, Chernivtsi and Vinnytsia regions have completed the harvesting of all crops. Most cereals and leguminous crops were threshed in Vinnitsa region – 4 million tons, and their highest yield was recorded in Khmelnytsky region – 70.9 c/ha.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record since the independence of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the amount of 106 million tons: UAH 84 million of cereals and legumes, and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
A total of 32.4 million tons of wheat, 40 million tons of corn, 10 million tons of barley, 581.5 thousand tons of peas, 191 thousand tons of millet and 110 tons of buckwheat were harvested last year. Sunflower harvest amounted to 16.3 million tons, soybeans – 3.4 million tons and rapeseed – 2.9 million tons.
The forecasted gross harvest of grain crops in Ukraine in 2023 could be 34 million tons, which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021, while the yield of oilseeds is expected to be 19.3 million tons, which is 13% more than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021.
As reported on the website of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association (UCAB) on Friday, such a reduction in the grain harvest is caused by the reduction of cultivated areas under crops next year by 45%, to 8.7 million hectares.
The reasons for the reduction in the grain harvest next year will be a decrease in the total sown area, a change in the structure of crops in favor of oilseeds and lower yields of grain crops.
UCAB noted that of the 28.4 million hectares under cultivation in 2021, by December 2022 there are 24.6 million hectares of agricultural land (86% of the total area) in the controlled territory of Ukraine, of which 3.8 million hectares are not suitable for agricultural work due to their proximity to the front lines, contamination by mines and shells, etc. In addition, the end of the sowing campaign of winter crops has demonstrated a significant reduction in the sown area – 3.8 million hectares of winter crops have been sown in 2022, which is 43% lower than in 2021.
UCAB stressed that the reason for this trend is the limited ability to export crops, expensive logistics and, as a consequence, a significant difference in prices of crops by region.
“The regions that are geographically close to sea ports and borders with the EU, have a higher price for agricultural products compared to the regions in the north and east of our country. For example, the price of corn with VAT in Transcarpathian region is 6800 UAH per ton, and in Sumy region – 4900 UAH. However, even in western regions the price is unprofitable. Therefore, the proximity of the border with the EU and working ports determines the ability of the relevant areas to continue grain production, “- the association specified in the message.
In turn, next 2023 will see an increase in the area under oilseeds due to their higher margins compared to grain crops and a significant increase in the logistics of grain this year.
“The price of oil-bearing crops is 2 times higher than the price of grain crops on the world market. According to preliminary estimates, the sown areas under grain crops in 2023 will be 8.7 million hectares, which is 22% less than in 2022 and 45% less than in 2021. The projected area sown with oilseeds is 9.7 million hectares, which is 32% more than in 2022 and 9% more than in 2021. For the first time, the area under oilseeds will be larger than that under grains,” the UCAB said in a statement.
In addition, next year’s average yield will decrease by 10-30%, depending on the region and crop, compared to the average yield of previous years due to a 50-60% reduction in fertilizer application, significant amounts of corn left in the fields of the 2022 crop, the lack of agribusiness funding and the need for significant resource savings.
UCAB stressed that taking into account the given gross production volumes and domestic needs of Ukraine the export potential of grains and oilseeds in 2023/24 marketing year (MY, July-June) will be about 35 million tons, or 3 million tons per month. For comparison, in 2021/22 MY export potential was at the level of 85 million tons of grains and oilseeds, or 7 million tons per month.
As reported, Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes, and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
A total of 32.4 million tons of wheat, 40 million tons of corn, 10 million tons of barley, 581.5 thousand tons of peas, 191 thousand tons of millet and 110 tons of buckwheat were harvested last year. Sunflower harvest amounted to 16.3 million tons, soybeans – 3.4 million tons and rapeseed – 2.9 million tons.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the August forecast, to 67.5 million tonnes from 64.5 million tonnes, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
This change in forecasts is due to an increase in the area where the crop will be harvested, as well as an improvement in the average yield from 3.57 tonnes/ha to 3.64 tonnes/ha.
According to it, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 47.5 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 31% less – 32.8 million tonnes), provided that marine grain corridors are operational until the end of the marketing year. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of 2022/2023 MY amounted to 26 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are estimated at 19.2 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 37% more – 30.5 million tonnes).
“In general, export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate until the end of the season. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19.3 million tonnes (1.5% more compared to the August forecast); 24 million tonnes of corn (forecast kept); 5.6 million tonnes of barley (3.7% more); 10 million tonnes of sunflower (11% more); 3.6 million tonnes of soybeans (1.6 times more); and 3.15 million tonnes of rapeseed (5% more).
In the November forecast, the association raised its export forecasts compared to August ones – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected at the level of 13 million tonnes (33% more), corn – 20 million tonnes (a 2-fold increase), barley – 2 million tonnes (forecast is kept), sunflower – 6 million tonnes (forecast is kept), soybean – 3.5 million tonnes (an increase of 2 times), and rapeseed – 2.8 million tonnes (forecast is kept).
“We estimate the preliminary forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds for the next 2023 at the level of 53.2 million tonnes, and export at the level of 39.7 million tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and subsequently harvest crops,” the UGA said in the statement.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) in November compared to October reduced the forecast of world grain production in 2022 by 4.9 million tons – to 2.764 billion tons, according to the report of the organization.
The new figure is 1.8% lower than last year’s harvest. “The bulk of the revision concerns wheat, but the forecast for global coarse grain production has also been slightly reduced,” the document says. Thus, the wheat harvest estimate is down by 3.4 million tons to 783.8 million tons. However, it is 0.6% higher than in 2021 and is an absolute record.
As the experts explain, the revision of the wheat harvest forecast “is almost entirely due to production indicators in the U.S. – a decrease in yields and the reduction of harvesting areas. Forecasts for other producing countries, where the harvest is coming to an end, have not changed.
Forage grain harvest estimates are down 1.3 million tons to 1.467 billion tons. That’s down 2.8 percent from last year. “This is the first decline in production in four years,” the report notes. Most of this month’s decline in the forecast is due to lower corn production estimates in the U.S. and the EU, where recent data show the effects of the drought were more widespread than previously thought. Ukraine’s corn production forecast has been raised.
According to the report, corn acreage will remain planted in 2023, “but further expansion may be constrained by high production costs.”
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until mid-2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tons in 2023 (- 40% compared to 2021), and up to 52.5 million tons in 2024 (-38.7%).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until mid-2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tons, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tons in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest in 2024 not 62 million tons of cereals and legumes, as in the case of free maritime exports, but only 52.2 million tons due to the blockade of its port infrastructure.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tons.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 – 64.9 million tons, in 2021 – a record 85.7 million tons since independence.
As reported, by October 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 48.81 million tons of main crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas.
Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tons: grains and legumes – 84 million tons, oilseeds – 22.6 million tons.
