The escalation of the war around Iran has already gone beyond a regional conflict and has become a factor in global inflation. On March 9, Brent rose above $119 per barrel intraday, its highest level since 2022, and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The scale of the risk is also explained by logistics: in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption.
For Ukraine, the fastest channel for transmitting such a shock is the fuel market. After losing a significant part of its own refining capacity, the country relies on imports: in 2024, Ukraine imported about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, and in January-September 2025, imports of petroleum products reached 5.67 million tons. Even before the current price surge, the market remained sensitive to logistics and external conditions: The NBU noted an acceleration in the growth of prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas due to supply disruptions, and Reuters reported that in January 2026, gasoline imports grew by 70% year-on-year due to a shortage of domestic production. This makes gasoline, diesel, and autogas the most likely first group of goods to react to a protracted oil shock.
“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through rising fuel costs, and then through higher logistics, import, and food prices. For our economy, this is not only an external shock, but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics and a high share of transport costs. In 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of agri-food products by 13% to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. The largest items in the procurement structure were fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), coffee, tea, and spices ($471 million), and vegetables ($467 million). It is these categories — from bananas and citrus fruits to coffee, chocolate, and seafood — that are most sensitive to increases in freight, fuel, refrigerated logistics, and dollar-denominated commodity prices.
“Consumers will feel the price increases most noticeably where there is a large share of imports and transportation costs. First and foremost, this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood, and fruit, and a little later, goods whose prices include more expensive fertilizers, gas, and packaging,” Urakin noted.
The third risk area is fertilizers and then Ukrainian-produced food. There has already been an increase in prices not only for oil and gas, but also for sugar, fertilizers, and soybeans following the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35-40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is doubly sensitive for Ukraine: the NBU previously estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tons.
According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports has already exceeded 60%. This means that if oil and gas prices remain high for a long time, in a few months the pressure may shift to the cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat, and other food products.
Products linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve special mention. Oil is a basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters has already noted that aluminum prices have risen to a four-year high amid the current conflict. This increases the risk of price increases for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain types of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials, and some construction products. The same applies to bitumen, a direct petroleum product, whose imports to Ukraine, according to industry estimates, will remain significant in 2026.
The currency factor could be an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of the war, investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven asset. This is important for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers, and a significant portion of other imports are denominated in dollars, and the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 50% of trade in goods. Even without a physical deficit, this increases the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia.
However, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products, where Ukraine remains a major producer — primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower oil — are less dependent on immediate imports, and the wheat and corn harvest in 2025 turned out to be better than early expectations.
Therefore, in the short term, fuel, imported fruits and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals, and some construction materials are likely to see the sharpest price increases. But if the energy shock drags on, the rise in logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of Ukrainian-made goods.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/
In July 2025-February 2026, Ukraine retained its position as the leading supplier of sunflower oil to the European Union and provided almost 92% of the total imports of this product by the bloc’s countries, according to the specialized publication OFI Magazine, citing data from the European Commission.
According to a report by the German Union for the Promotion of Plants and Proteins (UFOP), in the first seven months of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), the EU-27 countries imported a total of just under 1.04 million tons of sunflower oil. Despite its leadership, the total import figure decreased compared to the same period last year, when it amounted to 1.28 million tons.
According to UFOP estimates, the annual sunflower harvest in Ukraine decreased from 13 million tons in 2024 to 10.5 million tons in 2025, as the decline in harvest led to a reduction in processing volumes and limited sunflower oil exports.
Researchers at Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft also noted significant pressure from Russian attacks on infrastructure and port facilities, which complicated oil logistics.
Market observers, in turn, noted the stabilization of sunflower oil export flows despite security risks.
Moldova (5% of the market) and Serbia (less than 2%) ranked second and third among suppliers. Moldova showed an increase in supplies, while Serbia lagged significantly behind the previous year’s level.
Electricity imports to Ukraine in February 2026 increased by 41% compared to January and reached 1,262.8 thousand MWh, which is a new monthly import record since the launch of the new electricity market, according to the DIXI Group analytical center, citing data from Energy Map.
“For comparison: in February 2025, imports amounted to 244.2 thousand MWh, which is five times less than in the reporting month,” the center said.
At the same time, there have been no electricity exports for three months in a row.
As noted by DIXI Group, Ukraine’s energy system remained under significant pressure last month. Frosty weather kept electricity consumption high, while Russian attacks caused significant damage to power generation facilities, high-voltage substations, and electricity transmission and distribution networks, creating a situation of chronic power shortages in the energy system, which at times reached 5-6 GW.
Six massive attacks were recorded during the month (more than 60 in total since the start of the full-scale war). After the attacks on February 7 and 26, in particular, Ukrainian nuclear power plants were forced to partially reduce their output, which complicated the balancing of the system and increased the need for imports.
According to DIXI Group, Hungary accounted for the largest share of imports in February – 49%, or 618.0 thousand MWh. Romania accounted for 19% of the resources provided to the country (240.6 thousand MWh), Slovakia – 18% (227.1 thousand MWh), Poland – 13% (159.4 thousand MWh), and Moldova – 1% (17.7 thousand MWh).
Electricity purchases increased in all supply directions – by 18-54% depending on the country.
As the center reminded, since January this year, the capacity limit for imports from EU countries to Ukraine and Moldova has been 2.45 GW, which is a record level for the entire period of Ukraine’s synchronization with the continental European network ENTSO-E (the previous maximum for the Ukraine-Moldova block was 2.15 GW). Taking into account that part of the imported capacity is directed to Moldova, Ukraine has access to about 2.1 GW of commercial imports.
On average, during February, the use of available capacity was 89.5% of the accepted nominal value of 2.1 GW.
“Thus, in February 2026, Ukraine remained a net importer of electricity for the fifth month in a row, and import volumes reached a historic high amid escalating Russian shelling and seasonal growth in consumption,” DIXI Group concluded.
As reported, the key factor contributing to the increase in electricity imports to Ukraine and, at the same time, the price jump on the day-ahead market (DAM) was the increase by the National Commission for State Regulation in Energy and Utilities upper price limits (price caps) on short-term market segments starting January 18, 2026.
At an extraordinary meeting on January 16, the National Energy Regulator set the maximum price limit for electricity on the day-ahead market (DAM) and intraday market (IDM) at UAH 15,000/MWh throughout the day for the period from January 18 to March 31, 2026.
According to ENTSOE data, in February 2026, Ukraine ranked first in terms of the average daily BASE price index on the DAM 21 times (February 1, 4-10, 13-14, 17-18, 20-28) compared to 26 European countries.
At the end of 2025, Ukraine ranked second among 27 European countries in terms of the BASE index on the DAM, which amounted to 5,292.62 UAH/MWh, calculated according to Central European Time (CET).
According to the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics” (IAE), citing data from the State Customs Service, Ukraine increased its imports of agricultural products by 13% compared to 2024, reaching $9.12 billion in 2025.
According to the research institute, EU member states retained their position as the main supplier and provided 53.9% of domestic agri-food imports worth $4.91 billion.
According to the institution, EU member states retained their position as the main supplier for the seventh consecutive year and provided 53.9% of domestic agri-food imports in 2025, worth $4.91 billion, with the value of supplies from the EU increasing by 15% compared to 2024.
According to the IEA, imports from other regions were much lower. Food supplies from Asian countries amounted to $1.635 billion (17.9%), Latin America – $693 million (7.6%), and Africa – $489 million (5.4%). All of them also increased sales of agricultural products for the needs of the Ukrainian domestic market last year.
Since 2017, Poland has held the top spot in the ranking of major suppliers of agricultural products to Ukraine, selling $1.15 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2025, 24% more than in 2024. The top ten exporters also included Germany ($692 million), Turkey ($654 million), Italy ($575 million), the Netherlands ($417 million), Norway ($338 million), France ($317 million), Spain ($314 million), China ($264 million), and the United States ($235 million). In total, these ten countries accounted for 54% of all imports.
In the commodity structure of purchases, 70% of the value was made up of fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), food products ($575 million), tobacco products ($493 million), feed ($476 million), coffee and tea ($471 million), vegetables ($467 million), and oilseeds ($418 million).
“Food imports to Ukraine in 2025 reached their highest level in monetary terms since the country gained independence, growing for the third consecutive year amid a full-scale invasion of our state by the Russian Federation. Against the backdrop of a general trend of rising food prices, especially given the significant risks for specialized businesses in Ukraine, the cost of foreign purchases in 2026 is likely to remain high,” concluded Bogdan Dukhnytskyi, a leading researcher at the IAE.
According to the results of 2025, Ukraine imported Polish agri-food products worth EUR 1.2 billion and entered the list of key destinations for Polish exports outside the European Union, reported the Polish online publication agronews.com.pl.
According to the publication, Polish food exports to third countries grew by 3% last year, reaching EUR 14.5 billion, which accounted for 25% of total sales. The main consumers in this segment, apart from Ukraine, were the United Kingdom with EUR 4.4 billion and the United States with EUR 838 million. Meat (EUR 1.6 billion), dairy products (EUR 1.1 billion), and chocolate products (EUR 1 billion) were in the highest demand in markets outside the EU.
According to Polish analysts, the strengthening of the zloty exchange rate, which slightly reduced the price competitiveness of Polish goods, was a restraining factor for further expansion.
At the same time, the European Union remains Poland’s key trading partner, accounting for 75% of all shipments. Exports to the bloc grew by 10% to EUR43.9 billion. Germany was traditionally the main buyer, with EUR14.8 billion. The commodity structure of European supplies was dominated by poultry meat (EUR4.2 billion, +26%), beef (EUR2.7 billion, +37%), and confectionery.
Poland’s total agri-food exports in 2025 set a historic record and reached EUR58.4 billion, allowing the country to maintain a positive trade balance of EUR19.8 billion.
US President Donald Trump announced an increase in previously imposed universal import duties from 10% to 15% on goods supplied to the United States from all countries of the world.
The head of state made the announcement during a speech on trade policy and the protection of national industry. According to him, the decision is aimed at reducing the trade deficit, stimulating domestic production, and bringing jobs back to the American economy.
As Trump noted, the tariff increase will be part of a broader strategy of economic protectionism, which includes revising the terms of international trade and strengthening support for American manufacturers. The administration expects that the new measures will increase the competitiveness of domestically produced goods.
Economists warn that the increase in duties could lead to higher prices for imported goods in the US, as well as retaliatory measures from trading partners. Analysts do not rule out increased tension in world trade and additional pressure on global supply chains.
The new tariff rates are expected to come into effect after the necessary administrative procedures have been completed. Business representatives have already expressed concern about the possible increase in the cost of raw materials and components used by American companies.
Earlier, the US administration introduced a base import duty rate of 10%, explaining this by the need to protect the national economy and reduce dependence on foreign supplies.
