Inflation in the eurozone in May 2026 accelerated to 3.2% year-on-year against 3.0% in April, according to Experts Club. data.
In the European Union as a whole, annual inflation amounted to 3.3%. The highest indicator among all EU countries was recorded in Romania — 9.7%. However, Romania is not part of the eurozone, therefore it is not taken into account in the ranking of the countries of the currency bloc.
Among the eurozone countries, Bulgaria became the anti-leader, where annual inflation in May reached 6.3%. Bulgaria joined the eurozone on January 1, 2026, and became the 21st country of the monetary union.
Second place in the eurozone was taken by Lithuania with inflation of 5.1%, third place — Greece with 5.0%. The lowest indicators among eurozone countries were recorded in Malta — 2.1%, Germany — 2.7%, and France — 2.8%.
Thus, in May two different rankings were formed. For the EU as a whole, the main anti-leader was Romania, which remains outside the eurozone. For the eurozone, Bulgaria became the leader in price growth.
Inflation anti-leaders in the EU in May 2026:
Romania — 9.7%
Bulgaria — 6.3%
Lithuania — 5.1%
Inflation anti-leaders in the eurozone in May 2026:
Bulgaria — 6.3%
Lithuania — 5.1%
Greece — 5.0%
According to the analytical center Experts Club, the difference between the EU ranking and the eurozone ranking is important for the correct interpretation of the data. The eurozone reflects the situation in countries with a single currency and the common monetary policy of the ECB, while the EU also includes countries with national currencies, including Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Denmark and Sweden.
“Romania cannot be included in the eurozone ranking, but it also cannot be ignored. It is the main inflation anti-leader of the entire EU. For business, this means that inflation risks in Europe differ greatly not only between countries, but also between currency zones. In the eurozone, the most problematic case now is Bulgaria; in the EU as a whole — Romania,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
The main contribution to eurozone inflation in May came from services, energy carriers, food products, alcohol and tobacco, as well as industrial goods excluding energy. Energy prices rose by 10.9% year-on-year, services became 3.5% more expensive, and food products, alcohol and tobacco — by 2.0%.
The ICU Investment Group has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 to less than 1% (0.8% expected) compared to its previous estimate in December of 1.2%.
“Weak economic growth will be the new norm in the coming years unless the security situation improves significantly,” according to ICU’s updated macroeconomic forecast.
ICU noted that private household consumption and government investment in military projects remain the main pillars of the economy, however, the strength of these components will gradually weaken, so the investment company lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year from 1.2% in the December macro forecast to 0.8% in the June update.
According to the company’s press release, GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 0.5%, which is slightly below most estimates; ICU believes that growth potential in the medium term remains quite limited.
According to the press release, analysts have downgraded the inflation forecast for 2026 to 9–10%, compared to previous expectations of around 7%. This trend is attributed to the primary and secondary effects of the crisis in the Middle East and the war in Iran on global consumer prices.
ICU considers the current tightness of monetary policy sufficient to offset temporary inflationary pressures, so the probability of an NBU policy rate hike by year-end is estimated at no more than 50% (the rate forecast for 2026 is 15%).
Due to a significant increase in imbalances in the foreign exchange market and a rise in the NBU’s currency sales interventions to $18.1 billion over the first five months of this year (compared to $14.3 billion during the same period last year), the investment group expects the pace of the hryvnia’s depreciation to accelerate. For the full year, the increase in interventions compared to last year’s figure could amount to $6–7 billion, and their total volume could approach $42–43 billion, leading to a revision of the exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 45.8 UAH/$1 compared to the previous 45.0 UAH/$1.
At the same time, the budget deficit in 2026 (projected at 21% of GDP excluding grants) will be fully covered by foreign aid, allowing the Ministry of Finance to reduce domestic debt for the first time since the start of the full-scale war. Approval of the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan (USL) will enable the NBU to maintain international reserves at $60 billion by year-end.
According to the updated table of macroeconomic indicators, ICU also forecasts nominal GDP of $229 billion, a current account deficit of 18% of GDP, and an increase in public debt to 107% of GDP by the end of 2026. The baseline assumption of the forecast is that security risks will not change fundamentally in the medium term: a peace agreement will not be signed, but the enemy will not make any new territorial gains either.
As reported, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8% in April, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028. Regarding inflation, the NBU revised its forecast for 2026 downward in April from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%, and expects it to decrease to 5% as early as 2028.
The government’s forecast, incorporated into the 2026 state budget, currently projects 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev has announced plans to revise it downward.
The EBRD, in turn, has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.2%.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is entering June with heightened caution: Bitcoin is trading near the $73,000 mark, Ethereum is trading around $2,000, and investors are assessing several risk factors at once—the U.S.-Iran conflict, high oil prices, outflows from crypto ETFs, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the MiCA deadline for crypto companies in the EU.
Following the May decline, the main issue for the market will be not only Bitcoin’s performance but also broader risk appetite. If geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf persist, investors may continue to reduce their positions in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. For BTC, this means the risk of continued trading within a wide range without a sustained recovery, and for altcoins, even greater sensitivity to liquidity.
The first key macroeconomic indicator will be the U.S. labor market report for May, which will be released on June 5. Strong employment data could dampen expectations of Fed policy easing and support the dollar and bond yields. For the cryptocurrency market, this is traditionally a negative combination, as more expensive money reduces interest in assets without a stable cash flow.
The second set of risks is related to oil. A meeting of select OPEC+ countries, which coordinate voluntary production cuts, is expected on June 7. Under normal circumstances, this would be primarily an oil-related event, but currently, the energy factor directly influences inflation expectations, central bank policy, and investor behavior. If the market perceives a risk of an oil shortage or a new surge in prices, crypto assets could come under pressure again due to fears of tighter monetary policy.
On June 10, U.S. inflation data for May will be released. This is one of the month’s key events for Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the CPI shows an acceleration due to fuel and transportation costs, the market may price in fewer chances of rate cuts in 2026 or even begin discussing the risk of further policy tightening. If inflation turns out to be lower than expected, the cryptocurrency market could receive short-term support.
On June 11, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. This is important for the cryptocurrency market due to the euro, liquidity in Europe, and the overall revaluation of risk assets. Due to high energy prices, inflationary pressures in the eurozone have intensified again, so investors will be closely watching the ECB’s signals regarding its next steps.
The key event of the month will be the Fed meeting on June 16–17. It will be accompanied by updated economic forecasts and FOMC members’ rate expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, not only the decision itself but also the tone of the comments will be important: if the Fed acknowledges inflation risks stemming from oil and geopolitics, Bitcoin may remain under pressure. If, however, the regulator emphasizes the economic slowdown and the need to preserve room for future easing, the market may attempt a recovery.
A separate factor in June will be EU regulation. By June 30, crypto companies must obtain licenses under MiCA rules or risk facing restrictions, blacklists, and regulatory claims. For large players, this may be a step toward legalization and trust, but for small exchanges and providers, it poses the risk of losing access to EU clients.
ETF flows will remain one of the most important short-term indicators. Following an outflow of over $2 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in early June, the market will be watching closely to see if institutional investors return to buying. If outflows continue, it will be harder for BTC to hold above key technical levels. If funds show inflows again, this could signal a stabilization of demand.
The geopolitical front remains the most unpredictable. A U.S.-Iran war, risks to the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and tensions surrounding global trade could drastically shift investor sentiment. Cryptocurrencies behave erratically under such conditions: sometimes Bitcoin is perceived as an alternative asset, but in the short term, it more often reacts as a risky instrument and falls alongside stocks and the tech sector.
For Ethereum, June will be even more challenging than for Bitcoin. ETH depends not only on the broader market but also on activity in DeFi, NFTs, L2 networks, and demand for spot Ethereum ETFs. If liquidity remains weak, Ethereum may lag behind Bitcoin, while altcoins could exhibit even higher volatility.
The base case for June assumes continued high volatility and Bitcoin trading within a wide range without a clear trend until the release of inflation data and the Fed’s decision. A positive scenario for the market would be a combination of weaker inflation, oil price stabilization, a resumption of inflows into ETFs, and dovish signals from the Fed. A negative scenario would involve a new surge in oil prices, hawkish rhetoric from central banks, increased outflows from ETFs, and escalation in the Middle East.
Thus, June could be a test of resilience for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin remains the main indicator of institutional demand, Ethereum serves as an indicator of risk in altcoins, and key external factors will include interest rates, inflation, oil, geopolitics, and regulation in Europe.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine slowed to 0.2% in December 2025 from 0.4% in November and 0.9% in October, the State Statistics Service (SSS) reported on Friday.
The statistics agency recalled that in December 2024, consumer price growth was 1.4%, so in annual terms, inflation at the end of December this year decreased to 8% from 9.3% at the end of November and 10.9% at the end of October, and was lower than inflation in 2024, which was 12%.
It is noted that in December 2025, core inflation also fell to 0.1% from 0.3% in November and 0.6% in October. Given that in December 2024 it was 1.3%, core inflation slowed down to 8% in annual terms at the end of the year, from 9.3% in November and 10.2% in October.
In the consumer market in December, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages remained largely unchanged. At the same time, prices for eggs, grain products, fish and fish products, bread, sunflower oil, lard, vegetables, beef, and milk rose by 5.6–0.7%. At the same time, prices for fruit, sugar, poultry, pork, rice, fermented milk products, non-alcoholic beverages, and butter fell by 4.1–0.2%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.0%, which is associated with a 1.9% increase in the cost of tobacco products.
Clothing and footwear fell in price by 3.9%, in particular, footwear by 4.4% and clothing by 3.6%.
Transport prices rose by 0.7%, mainly due to a 1.3% increase in the cost of passenger rail transport and a 1.1% increase in the cost of fuel and lubricants.
As reported, inflation in Ukraine, which fell to 5.1% in 2023 after jumping to 26.6% a year ago, rose to 12% at the end of 2024.
At the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its inflation forecast for 2025 to 9.2% from 9.7% in its July macro forecast and left its inflation estimate for 2026 at the previous level of 6.6%.
In Bulgaria, amid the transition to the euro, some of the population remain concerned about possible price increases and heightened political tensions, according to media reports.
The country will join the eurozone on January 1, 2026, becoming the 21st country to adopt the single European currency.
There are also reports of a protest campaign under the slogan of preserving the Bulgarian lev, and according to Eurobarometer, about 49% of Bulgarians oppose the introduction of the euro.
The article notes that the ECB and European institutions point to the potential benefits of the transition, and the fixed conversion rate is set at 1.95583 leva per euro.
At the same time, according to media reports, the Bulgarian parliament strengthened control mechanisms in the summer to stop unjustified price increases when the currency changes.
Possible scenarios for the rise in the cost of living due to the introduction of the euro: the mildest scenario is a short-term “rounding” effect in retail trade, when some prices are rounded up, which usually contributes slightly and temporarily to inflation.
A more severe scenario is attempts by individual sellers and services to take advantage of the transition period and raise prices more than the conversion dictates, against the backdrop of already noticeable increases in the cost of food and real estate in 2025.
A negative scenario for citizens is if the rise in prices in the consumer basket outpaces the indexation of wages and pensions, real purchasing power will temporarily decline even with a formally small increase in inflation.
The Experts Club analytical center analyzed Albania’s economy for the first 10 months of 2025 and presented its analysis and forecast. Based on the results of the first ten months of 2025, Albania continues to have one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with low inflation, stable currency reserves, and continued growth in tourism, but it faces a slowdown in industrial output and an expanding trade deficit.
According to IMF mission estimates and national statistics, Albania’s real GDP grew by approximately 3.4–3.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, which is comparable to 2024 figures and above the European average. The main drivers of growth remain the service sector, construction, and tourism: foreign tourists alone spent around €2.1 billion in the country in the first six months, which is 7–8% more than a year earlier.
International institutions expect the economy to grow by around 3.4-3.7% by the end of the year: after its autumn mission, the IMF raised its forecast to 3.5% for 2025, while the World Bank and the EBRD also expect growth of over 3%.
Inflation in the country remains low and close to the target level. According to the IMF and national statistics, annual consumer price inflation in 2025 is around 2–2.3%.
The labor market situation is improving moderately. The unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2025 fell to 8.5%, which is significantly below the historical average (around 14%).
Industry remains the most vulnerable sector. According to estimates by research centers and statistics, industrial production in Albania in the first quarter of 2025 declined by approximately 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, while in the second quarter the decline slowed to around 0.5%. Manufacturing output in June 2025 was 0.9% lower than a year ago. This reflects the problems of traditional export industries, primarily textiles and clothing, which are under pressure due to the strengthening of the national currency and demographic outflow.
The external sector remains a weak spot in the macroeconomy. According to Albanian think tanks and INSTAT, the trade deficit in goods widened to about 25.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025, despite high tourism revenues. Remittances from migrants grew by about 5% to €1.2 billion, remaining an important source of external revenue, while foreign direct investment stabilized at around €1.1 billion over the same period.
At the same time, external stability appears comfortable. According to Trading Economics, Albania’s international reserves reached $7.3 billion in September 2025. In its final Article IV statement, the IMF explicitly notes “strong reserves, declining public debt, and one of the highest growth rates in Europe” as a basis for further reforms and deeper integration with the EU.
