The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) notes the presence of a number of factors on the market that contribute to the improvement of the price situation, and may reduce the inflation forecast for the current year, which was set at 31% in July, said Deputy Head of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk.
Our last forecast for July (inflation) is about 30%, next year it will be about 20%. The risks are down: most likely, it will be revised (inflation forecast) a little lower, but not significantly,” he said at the Forbes conference “Without rose-colored glasses. Business and the state during the war” on Thursday.
Nikolaychuk explained that this was due, in particular, to the improvement in the situation with the supply of vegetables and fruits.
He added that fuel prices fell more than the National Bank expected, which is also related to logistics.
“The situation with the opening of ports also gives more reasons that there will be no large exchange rate fluctuations,” the deputy head of the National Bank said.
He also noted that in the July forecast, the National Bank included the introduction of an additional import duty and a higher excise tax on fuel, but these measures were not implemented, and this is also an additional deterrent effect on prices.
“Next year, the main disinflationary factor is the improvement in the ability of Ukrainian businesses to increase agricultural production, and logistics capabilities will improve,” Nikolaychuk said.
As reported, consumer price growth in Ukraine in August 2022 accelerated to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, and in annual terms, in August this year, inflation rose to 23.8% from 22.2% in July and 21.5% in June.
As reported, in 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while core inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
The NBU predicted an acceleration of inflation this year to 31%, including up to 25.6% in the third quarter.
Consumer prices (HICP index) in the euro area in September increased by 10% in annual terms, according to preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the European Union.
Thus, inflation accelerated compared to 9.1% in August and updated the maximum since the beginning of the calculations.
Analysts polled by Trading Economics had expected a less significant increase of 9.7%.
The current inflation rate is five times the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) target of 2%.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy increased by 4.8% in annual terms in September compared to 4.3% in the previous month.
The cost of energy resources soared by 40.8% (in August – by 38.6%). Food, alcohol and tobacco rose in price by 11.8% (by 10.6%), industrial goods – by 5.6% (by 5.1%), services – by 4.3% (by 3.8%) .
Consumer prices excluding food and energy (CPI Core index) this month increased by 4.8% in annual terms against 4.3% in August.
The growth of consumer prices in the euro area in September amounted to 1.2% compared to the previous month. In August, this figure increased by 0.6%.
The lowest inflation was recorded in France (6.2% in annual terms), Malta (7.3%), Finland (8.4%) and Ireland (8.6%). The most significant rise in prices occurred in Estonia (24.2%), Latvia (22.4%) and Lithuania (22.5%).
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in July 2022 due to seasonal factors slowed down to 0.7% from 3.1% in June and 2.7% in May, returning to the level of the end of last year, the State Statistics Service reported (Gosstat) on Wednesday.
In July last year, inflation was 0.1%, so in annual terms, in July this year, it rose to 22.2% from 21.5% in June and 18% in May.
Core inflation over the past month also fell to 1.2% from 1.6% in June and 1.4% in May. However, taking into account the core deflation of 0.1% in July 2021 in annual terms, it increased to 16.7% from 14.9% in June and 13.7% in May.
Since the beginning of this year, for the first seven months, inflation in Ukraine amounted to 18.2%, and the base – 12.7%, said the State Statistics Service.
In the consumer market in July, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0.8%. Most of all (by 8.7%) the price of eggs rose. Prices for processed cereals, rice, pork, lard, fish and fish products, non-alcoholic drinks, bread and butter increased by 5.1-1.1%. At the same time, prices for fruits, beef and vegetables fell by 5.4–1.9%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 1.3%, incl. for tobacco products – by 1.8%, alcoholic beverages – by 0.8%.
Clothing and footwear fell in price by 3.5%, including footwear – by 3.8%, clothing – by 3.2%.
Transportation prices decreased by 0.3% mainly due to cheaper fuel and lubricating oils by 4.4%. At the same time, the cost of travel in road passenger transport increased by 2.9%.
In the field of communications, prices increased by 2.1%, which is associated with an increase in the cost of mobile communications by 4.1% and postal services by 2.6%.
As reported, in 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while core inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
The NBU predicts that inflation will accelerate to 31% this year, including up to 25.6% in the third quarter.
Consumer prices in the euro area in June increased by 8.6% in annual terms, according to the final data of the Statistical Office of the European Union.
The indicator is the maximum since the beginning of the data calculation.
Thus, inflation in the region accelerated compared to 8.1% in May.
The final data coincided with the preliminary ones. Analysts polled by Trading Economics also did not expect a revision in the preliminary estimate.
The growth of consumer prices compared to the previous month amounted to 0.8%, as in May.
Inflation is over four times the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) target of 2%. The next meeting of the ECB will take place on Thursday, and it is likely that as a result of it, key interest rates will be raised immediately by 50 basis points, and not by the expected 25 bp.
According to Eurostat, energy resources jumped in price by 42% compared to June last year. Food, alcohol and tobacco increased in price by 3.7%, manufactured goods – by 4.3%, services – by 3.4%.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 3.7% year-on-year last month from 3.8% in May.
In the European Union, inflation in June accelerated to 9.6% in annual terms from 8.8% in May.
The lowest inflation in the EU was recorded in Malta (6.1%), France (6.5%) and Finland (8.1%), the highest – in Estonia (22%), Lithuania (20.5%). ) and Latvia (19.2%).
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in June 2022 accelerated to 3.1% from 2.7% in May, returning to the level of April, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) reported on Friday.
In June last year, inflation was 0.2%, so in annual terms, in June this year, it rose to 21.5% from 18% in May, 16.4% in April, 13.7% in March, 10.7% – in February and 10% – in January, the agency said.
Core inflation over the past month also increased to 1.6% from 1.4% in May, which, however, is less than 3% in April and 3.8% in March. However, taking into account 0.4% in May 2021 in annual terms, it increased to 14.9% from 13.7% in May, 13% in April, 10.5% in March, 8.2% – at the end of February and 7.6% – at the end of January.
Since the beginning of this year, for its first half of the year, inflation in Ukraine amounted to 17.4%, and the base – 11.4%, said the State Statistics Service.
In the consumer market in June, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 3.2%. Eggs increased the most (by 17.2%). Prices for sugar, rice, cereal products, pork, vegetables, poultry meat increased by 10.9-4.2%. At the same time, prices for beef and fruits fell by 1.1%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 2.4%, including for alcoholic beverages – by 3.4%, tobacco products – by 1.4%.
Clothes and footwear fell in price by 1.4%, in particular, clothes – by 1.8%, shoes – by 0.9%.
Transportation prices rose by 11.2%, mainly due to a rise in the price of fuel and lubricating oils by 21.3%, as well as road and rail passenger transport by 7.4% and 4.5%, respectively.
In the field of communications, prices increased by 0.9%, which is associated with a rise in the cost of postal services and telephone equipment by 3.0%.
As reported, in 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while core inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2022 slowed down to 2.7% from 3.1% in April and 4.5% in March, but exceeded 1.6% in February and 1.3% in January , the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) said on Thursday.
In May last year, inflation was 1.3%, so in annual terms, in May this year, it rose to 18% from 16.4% in April, 13.7% in March, 10.7% in February and 10% – following the results of January, the department indicated.
Core inflation over the past month also declined to 1.4% from 3% in April and 3.8% in March. However, taking into account 0.7% in May 2021 in annual terms, it increased to 13.7% from 13% in April, 10.5% in March, 8.2% in February and 7.6% – at the end of January.
Since the beginning of this year, for its first five months, inflation in Ukraine amounted to 13.9%, and the base – 9.6%, said the State Statistics Service.
The National Bank of Ukraine, as reported by its head Kirill Shevchenko, expected an increase in inflation in May up to 17%.
In the consumer market in May, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 2.7%. Most of all (by 14.3% and 11.5%) rice and fruit rose in price. Prices for fish and fish products, grain processing products, vegetables, soft drinks, and pasta increased by 5.9-3.2%. At the same time, prices for eggs fell by 21.2%, beef, sugar, and poultry meat fell by 2.5–0.9%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 3.9%, incl. for alcoholic beverages – by 6.4%, tobacco products – by 1.5%.
The decrease in prices in the healthcare sector by 0.9% was primarily due to the reduction in the cost of pharmaceutical products by 1.8%.
Transportation prices increased by 10.2% mainly due to the increase in the price of fuel and lubricating oils by 22.8%, as well as road passenger transport fares – by 6.7%.
In the field of communications, prices increased by 1.0%, due to a rise in the cost of postal services by 6.7% and telephone equipment by 2.7%.
As reported, in 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while core inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
