Copper rose to a record high on Tuesday amid concerns over a shortage of the metal outside the U.S.
The price of three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $14,617 per metric ton, breaking the previous record set the day before. Since the start of this year, futures have risen 16%.
The most actively traded copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.3% on Tuesday to 110,620 thousand yuan ($16,484) per metric ton, while during trading, prices rose to a high of 110,890 yuan per metric ton, the highest level since January 30.
Physical copper shipments continue to be redirected to the U.S., exacerbating shortages in markets outside the country, according to analysts at the Chinese brokerage firm Everbright Futures.
The flow of metal to the U.S. is driven by expectations that the country will impose tariffs on copper imports starting in 2027.
Copper inventories at Comex warehouses rose last week to a record 695,624 thousand metric tons. At the same time, an outflow of the metal is being recorded at warehouses registered with the LME, as well as with the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The spot price of copper on the LME continues to exceed the price of the three-month contract, signaling limited supply of the metal in the short term.
Three-month zinc futures on the LME rose 0.54% to $4,005 per metric ton. Earlier, their price had climbed to a four-year high of $4,035 per metric ton.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video on global copper production and leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
Copper prices continue to rise after reaching record highs at the close of the previous session.
Prices for three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.5% on Tuesday to $14,349.5 per metric ton. On Wednesday, they rose another 0.5% to $14,415.5 per metric ton.
September copper futures on the Comex are trading at $6.73 per pound, which is 0.3% higher than the closing price on August 25.
The Chinese company Zijin Mining warned that flooding at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could lead to a reduction in the company’s production this year by 57,000 metric tons, which would put additional pressure on the market.
This year, the price of copper on the LME has risen by approximately 16% due to a significant increase in metal shipments to the U.S. and a reduction in inventories in other countries.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video on global copper production and the leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
According to Experts.news, the price of aluminum rose in the final trading session of the week following several days of heightened volatility amid risks to supplies from the Middle East, changes in Chinese exports, and expectations of a possible easing of U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum.
On the London Metal Exchange on August 21, the price of aluminum rose by approximately 1.2% to $3,242 per metric ton. Other market indicators throughout the day showed prices ranging from about $3,230 to $3,250 per metric ton.
Over the past month, the metal has risen in price by about 1.8%, and compared to a year ago, aluminum remains nearly 24% more expensive.
Despite the rise during recent trading sessions, the price has fallen significantly from its early June high. At that time, three-month aluminum on the LME climbed to $3,787.5 per metric ton—its highest level in about four years. By mid-August, the price had fallen to approximately $3,270 per metric ton.
The main reason for the June surge was disruptions in supplies from the Middle East amid the conflict with Iran. Before the situation escalated, Gulf states accounted for about 10% of global primary aluminum production. Additional problems arose at plants that relied on gas supplies.
However, China offset a significant portion of the shortfall. In the first half of the year, Chinese exports of aluminum alloys nearly doubled to 238,500 metric tons, while shipments of semi-finished products increased by 18% to 3.2 million metric tons. At the same time, China’s domestic demand remained relatively weak, while primary aluminum production remained at a level close to historic highs.
Chinese companies are currently operating at the limit of the national production capacity cap of 45 million metric tons per year set by Beijing, which restricts the possibility of further rapid production expansion.
Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have become another factor affecting the market. According to Reuters, the parties have moved closer to an agreement that could potentially lower U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum from 50% to 25%. Such a decision could once again increase the appeal of Canadian aluminum shipments to the U.S. and reduce the volume of shipments to Europe.
As a result, the aluminum market is caught between two opposing trends: the recovery and growth of Chinese shipments are capping prices, while geopolitical risks, production constraints, and trade barriers are keeping them significantly higher than last year’s levels.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank published a short video on global aluminum production from 1970 to 2024. According to the think tank’s analysis, in 2024, China produced about 43 million metric tons of primary aluminum, or approximately 60% of the global total. Next were India—about 4.2 million metric tons, Russia—3.8 million metric tons, Canada—3.3 million metric tons, and the UAE—2.7 million metric tons.
Watch a short Experts Club video on global aluminum production — https://youtube.com/shorts/cVVIjdMZL-w?si=dAUR8Purot4TxLsm
