Problems with logistics and electricity in the export of agricultural products from Ukraine during the war make it unprofitable to grow crops, so in 2023, the total yield in the country will reduce three times compared to the record prewar level – to 40 million tons from almost 120 million tons.
Reducing the harvest to such low levels is already inevitable due to the current economic situation in the country, but by financing the agricultural sector, Ukraine can achieve by 2024 to increase the harvest up to 70 million tons, said the owner of the grain trading holding Prometheus Rafael Goroyan in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine agency.
“Last year we harvested 120 million tons of grain and oilseeds, this year we have already fallen to 60 million tons, and next year, according to my forecast, there will be 40 million tons, that is a fall of 300%! At the same time, the entire infrastructure of Ukraine is sharpened under the harvest of 120 million tons or even more, is what we have achieved for 30 years of independence. The entire infrastructure is designed for 120 million tons – cars, wagons, stations, ports, elevators – and there will be no goods!”, – stressed the head of Prometheus in an interview.
“There will be a very sharp shortage of wheat, barley and corn. Sunflower and soybeans will be enough, these are high-margin crops, and corn will not be sown. Now it is expensive to dry it, this year’s crop cannot be harvested, cannot be exported – and then, when we win the war (and I think this will happen very soon), the ports will open, the light will appear, and we will have a shortage of products,” he added.
According to Goroyan, a reduction in the grain harvest will lead to a collapse in the value of infrastructure assets in Ukraine, such as ports, elevators and vehicles, as well as a sharp increase in world prices of wheat, corn and barley. In this sense, the reduction of the wheat harvest is especially serious because it is a “politicized” crop, linked to global food security, the shortage of which will lead to an increase in its quotations on major world exchanges.
Thus the government has to urgently begin issuing state-guaranteed loans to agrarians in order to prevent stagnation in gross harvest for several years after 2023. This will allow Ukraine, by investing relatively small funds, to avoid a reduction in the harvest and the associated decline of the farming and grain trading industries, as well as the bankruptcy of logistics and infrastructure companies.
“We need to do this so we don’t see a sharp drop in exports in two years, and we’re likely to see one. Then there will be no agribusiness in the country, the country will be without currency, we will face serious unemployment, big inflation and all things will go wrong. I believe that we need urgent subsidies from the state to the agricultural producer, very urgently, literally for yesterday. And this should be done in light, without complicated formalities, because the average and small Ukrainian farmer does not like to formalize anything”, – said Goroyan during the conversation.
As it was reported, Ukrainian agrarians harvested 71.72 million tons of major crops from the total area of 17.05 million hectares by December 23. This figure is given including sugar beet, which was harvested 9 million tons from 179 thousand hectares.
The final yield of wheat in this season amounted to 19.4 million tons from 4.7 million hectares, barley – 5.6 million tons from 1.6 million hectares, rape – 3.2 million tons from 1.1 million hectares, pea – 261 tons from 115 thousand ha. In addition, on December 23, a total of 20.2 million tons of corn from 3.1 million hectares (+0.2 million ha), 10.1 million tons of sunflower from 4.6 million ha, 3.7 million tons of soybeans from 1.5 million ha, 157 tons of buckwheat from 115 thousand ha and about 100 tons of millet from 43.5 thousand ha were collected.
Ukraine in 2021 collected a record harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 106 million tons: 84 million tons of cereals and legumes and 22.6 million tons of oilseeds.
A total of 32.4 million tons of wheat, 40 million tons of corn, 10 million tons of barley, 581.5 thousand tons of peas, 191 thousand tons of millet and 110 tons of buckwheat were harvested last year. Sunflower harvest amounted to 16.3 million tons, soybeans – 3.4 million tons and rapeseed – 2.9 million tons.
Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant, part of Metinvest, after a partial resumption of production, continues to operate at 50% of its capacity, Oleksandr Myronenko, general director of Zaporizhstal, said in an interview with the Segodnya newspaper.
According to him, there are currently problems with logistics – the supply of raw materials and the shipment of finished products.
At the same time, it is noted that due to significant problems with logistics and overstocking of railway crossings, Zaporizhia metal enterprises are forced to consider options for reducing production.
“Problems with logistics have not been resolved. We have significant problems with the shipment of our products to customers in the EU. Before the war, all our routes passed through ports, but they are not yet available. Now we have significant overstocking at border crossings in western Ukraine. All this forces us to consider the option of reducing production, because our products simply cannot be transported across the border,” Myronenko explained.
He noted that the leaders of the enterprise are doing everything possible to maintain the volume of exports and the inflow of foreign currency into the country, in particular, they provide additional equipment for reloading products at the border with the European Union. In addition, together with the Cabinet of Ministers, they are looking for ways to solve problems with logistics.
Earlier, other enterprises of the country announced problems with logistics.
Zaporizhstal is one of the largest industrial enterprises in Ukraine, whose products are in great demand among consumers both in the domestic market and in many countries of the world.
The third round of Ukraine-Russia talks has produced small positive shifts in the matter of providing humanitarian corridors, an advisor of the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said.
“Third round of talks is over. Small positive shifts to improve the logistics of humanitarian corridors,” Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted on Monday.
The corridors will be altered for a more efficient evacuation, he said.
As for the other issues, intense consultations continue, he said.
“From the standpoint of the key political trek – ceasefire, reconciliation, cessation of hostilities – intense consultations will continue. As of today, there is no result to make any considerable improvement in the situation. Still, yet again I want to stress: the consultations will continue and we will get the results,” Podolyak said.
Today’s talks lasted more than three hours in Belavezhskaya Pushcha, Brest region, Belarus, the same place where they were held the last time on March 3. The first round was held in Gomel region on February 28.
The Nova Poshta group of companies plans to transfer all logistics to BDF containers by 2025, Director of Nova Poshta Oleksandr Bulba said at the opening of the DAO innovative terminal in Dnipro last week.
According to him, the company has been implementing the decision to switch from conventional trucks to BDF containers since 2017. Containers are produced at three plants in Cherkasy region – MOKAVTO, SmilaMash and Intercargo. A total of 1,900 units have already been manufactured. They are used to deliver 100% of parcels and documents.
“In 2022, we will receive another 700 BDF containers. This will allow us to deliver up to 55% of cargo to this format. The task is to bring the fleet to 4,000 BDF containers and completely transfer all logistics, both parcels and cargo, by 2025,” Bulba said.
The Nova Poshta group of companies includes, in particular, Nova Poshta, NP Logistic, NovaPay and Nova Poshta Global companies. The company’s network has more than 9,900 branches throughout Ukraine, the number of shipments for 2021 exceeded 372 million. In 2021, the group transferred UAH 6.4 billion of taxes and fees to the country’s budget.
The volume of new supply on the warehouse and logistics real estate market in Ukraine in 2021-2022 will amount to 364,000 sq m, while about 200,000 square meters is to be commissioned in the market of Lviv and the region, according to a study by Alterra Group.
“The leader is Lviv, where it is planned to put into operation about 200,000 square meters. In Kyiv, it is planned to introduce those projects that were predicted back in 2019 and 2020. In the regions, most of the premises planned for commissioning by developers are occupied by post offices and logistics companies,” Dmytro Kovalchuk, the co-owner of Alterra Group, said during the web conference on the analytics of the warehouse real estate market.
So, in Kyiv, the volume of new supply in 2021-2022 will amount to 71,400 square meters, among the planned projects, in particular, are the warehouse FM Logistic (17,000 sq m), Sun Factory 2 (23,400 sq m), Makarovsky of ADG developer (15,000 sq m).
Among the objects in Lviv are the expansion of the Protec warehouse in Zymova Voda by 40,000 sq m, the warehouse Lvivsilmash (42,200 sq m), a project from Galileo Logistic (45,000 sq m), Port Lviv Logistic Center (40,000 sq m).
According to the company, postal operators will continue to actively develop, the total construction volume of which will be about 158,000 square meters. Among the projects announced in 2021 is the expansion of the Nova Poshta network in Dnipro, Odesa, Kyiv with a total area of projects of 37,000 square meters, the construction of Ukrposhta logistics terminals in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Odesa (22,000 sq m each), the expansion of the distribution center Mist Express in Lviv to 11,000 sq m.
Alterra Group is engaged in complex services for commercial real estate, development and consulting. The company’s portfolio includes 31 projects with a total area of 117,500 square meters.
Dragon Capital has completed the sale of the Omega-2 class A logistics complex with an area of 32,700 square meters in Brovary (Kyiv region), according to its press service on Monday.
“This is our first closing of a commercial real estate sale deal after we made a bet on this segment in 2016, and it demonstrates that there are opportunities in this market not only for profitable investments, but also for exits,” Dragon Capital Managing Director Volodymyr Tymochko said.
According to him, the company also continues to consider the possibility of spot acquisitions in the warehouse real estate sector. In addition, the plans also include the development of the company’s industrial parks in Kyiv (E40 Industrial Park) and Lviv (Ryasne-2).
Dragon Capital is one of the largest groups of companies in Ukraine, which works in the field of investment and financial services and provides a full range of investment banking, brokerage, and asset management services to institutional, corporate and private clients.
