Israel’s parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, ended without a clear majority for either of the main political blocs. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party retained first place, but his right-wing religious bloc lost its majority in the Knesset. This sets the stage for difficult coalition negotiations and could affect Israeli policy toward Iran, the Palestinian territories and Ukraine, reports the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the results released by Israel’s Central Elections Committee on October 30, Likud secured 27 of the 120 parliamentary seats. Yashar, led by former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, won 21 seats, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad alliance received 12. Arab political parties collectively secured a record 19 seats.
Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc controls 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition. Forming a government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers. Voter turnout reached 77.9%, with more than 5.7 million people casting ballots. The results are scheduled to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, while the new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10.
Experts Club analysts identify three main political scenarios. Under the first, Netanyahu could form a new coalition with support from some opposition lawmakers or negotiate a national unity government. The second involves an opposition government headed by Eisenkot, potentially relying on external parliamentary support from Arab parties. The third is a prolonged political deadlock that could lead to another election in 2027.
Regardless of the coalition negotiations, a fundamental reversal of Israel’s security policy appears unlikely in the near term. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot regard Iran’s military capabilities as a strategic threat. Their differences concern primarily the methods used to confront Tehran, coordination with the United States and the role of diplomatic initiatives.
A centrist government could nevertheless create additional opportunities for negotiations concerning the Gaza Strip, humanitarian arrangements and relations with Arab countries. By contrast, the continuation of a right-wing coalition would increase the likelihood of maintaining a hardline approach toward the Palestinian territories.
The election outcome is particularly significant against the backdrop of the war launched by Israel and the United States against Iran in late February 2026. Despite diplomatic contacts and mediation efforts by Qatar, no comprehensive settlement has been reached. Further escalation threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, international energy markets and the stability of Persian Gulf countries.
For Ukraine, the election creates potential opportunities to expand cooperation with Israel on countering Iranian-made Shahed drones, intelligence sharing and the development of air defense technologies. However, even a change of government would not guarantee an immediate revision of Israel’s cautious policy toward Russia or the supply of Israeli air defense systems to Ukraine.
Another risk is growing competition among Ukraine, Israel and Middle Eastern countries for interceptor missiles and other defense resources. Kyiv’s preferred outcome would therefore be regional de-escalation accompanied by stronger bilateral technological cooperation.
The election results indicate that Israel is entering a period of political uncertainty. The composition of the next governing coalition will influence not only the country’s domestic stability but also its approach to regional conflicts and relations with international partners.
Global oil prices closed Friday near their highest levels in nearly six months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.
Brent crude futures for December delivery on the London-based ICE Futures exchange rose by $3.55 (3.14%) to $116.72 per barrel at the close of trading on Friday. This is the highest closing price since April 29, 2026.
WTI crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $3.80 (3.8%) to $103.27 per barrel. For the week, Brent rose by about 6%, and WTI by 2.3%, according to Reuters.
On Saturday, October 24, the major exchanges for oil futures do not hold regular trading sessions.
The oil market is being supported by fears of a further escalation of the conflict in the region. According to Reuters, Friday’s price increase was linked, in particular, to attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabian territory, including energy infrastructure.
Reports of an oil spill off the coast of the United Arab Emirates have added to market concerns. However, the country’s authorities have not disclosed the cause of the incident nor identified the vessel from which the oil may have leaked.
Market participants are also monitoring the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent sea lanes. The increasing number of incidents involving commercial vessels heightens the risk of disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. authorized an emergency release of up to 400,000 barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to compensate for disruptions in crude oil supplies to the Phillips 66 refinery in Louisiana. Germany has also begun releasing part of its strategic reserves of petroleum products and crude oil.
Future price trends will depend on developments in the Middle East, the status of maritime shipping routes, and whether the escalation of the conflict leads to an actual reduction in oil exports from the region.
Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Israel in August 2026 remain predominantly positive or neutral; however, compared to the previous wave of the study, positive assessments have continued to decline. 35.6% of respondents have a positive attitude toward the country, 21.9% have a negative one, and another 39.7% hold a neutral position, according to the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center.
According to the results of the August survey, 10.4% of Ukrainians have a completely positive attitude toward Israel, while 25.2% have a mostly positive one. A neutral response was chosen by 39.7% of respondents. A mostly negative attitude was expressed by 14.7%, a completely negative one by 7.2%, and another 2.7% were undecided.
The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at plus 13.7 percentage points. This means that positive attitudes still outweigh negative ones, though the gap between them has narrowed significantly. Among Middle Eastern countries, Israel has a more polarized pattern of assessments than Saudi Arabia or Jordan, where neutral perceptions dominate.
In March 2026, 38.7% of respondents viewed Israel positively: 12.6% viewed it entirely positively and 26.1% viewed it mostly positively. A neutral stance was held by 38.2% of respondents, while 19.8% expressed a negative attitude, and another 3.3% were undecided.
Thus, over the course of five months, the share of positive assessments decreased by 3.1 percentage points—from 38.7% to 35.6%—while negative assessments increased by 2.1 percentage points—to 21.9%. The neutral segment increased by 1.5 percentage points. The balance between positive and negative attitudes decreased from plus 18.9 to plus 13.7 percentage points, respectively.
When comparing all three waves of the survey, the trend is even more pronounced. In August 2025, 44.7% of respondents viewed Israel positively, while 13.7% viewed it negatively; in March 2026, the figures were 38.7% and 19.8%, respectively; and in August, they were 35.6% and 21.9%. In other words, over the course of a year, the positive segment decreased by 9.1 percentage points, while the negative segment increased by 8.2 percentage points.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center and a candidate of economic sciences, had previously drawn attention to the economic component of Ukrainian-Israeli relations.
“At the end of 2025, Ukraine’s bilateral trade with Israel totaled over $353 million. Ukrainian exports amounted to $132.4 million, while imports of Israeli goods exceeded $221 million. This resulted in a trade deficit of approximately $88.6 million. This imbalance indicates a need to expand Ukrainian exports and seek new niches in the Israeli market,” Urakin emphasized.
The latest wave of the survey shows a gradual decline in positive attitudes toward Israel, but not a shift into negative territory. Respondents with a neutral stance remain the largest single group, while positive assessments are still approximately 1.6 times more numerous than negative ones.
The survey was conducted in August 2026 using an online self-administered questionnaire via the SunFlowerSociology panel among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. The maximum theoretical margin of error for indicators at the 50% confidence level is ±3.5 percentage points.
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In August 2026, the majority of Ukrainians maintained a neutral attitude toward Saudi Arabia—57.5% of respondents gave this answer. Twenty-nine percent of those surveyed viewed the country positively, while 9% viewed it negatively. Compared to the previous wave of the survey, the distribution of opinions changed only slightly, according to the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center.
According to the results of the August survey, 5.5% of Ukrainians have a completely positive attitude toward Saudi Arabia, while 23.5% have a mostly positive attitude. A neutral stance is held by 57.5% of respondents. Seven percent view the country mostly negatively, 2% view it entirely negatively, and another 4.5% were undecided.
The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at plus 20 percentage points. Thus, positive attitudes outnumber negative ones by more than three to one; however, the large neutral group remains the defining characteristic of perceptions of Saudi Arabia. In the overall picture of Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia also ranks among those toward which neutral assessments predominate.
Compared to March 2026, the figures remained nearly stable. In the previous survey, 8.4% of respondents had a completely positive attitude toward Saudi Arabia, and 19.6% had a mostly positive attitude—meaning the combined share of positive responses was 28%. A neutral stance was held by 58.7% of respondents, 8.2% viewed the country negatively, and another 5.1% were undecided.
Thus, over the course of five months, the share of positive assessments increased by 1 percentage point—from 28% to 29%—while negative assessments rose by 0.8 percentage points, to 9%. The neutral segment decreased by 1.2 percentage points. The balance between positive and negative attitudes remained virtually unchanged: approximately +19.8 percentage points in March and +20 percentage points in August.
At the same time, changes occurred within the positive segment. The share of fully positive assessments fell from 8.4% to 5.5%, while the share of mostly positive assessments rose from 19.6% to 23.5%. In other words, the overall share of favorable responses remained stable but became less categorical.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and a candidate of economic sciences, commenting on the survey results and the significant share of neutral attitudes toward a number of Ukraine’s partners, emphasized the need for more active public communication.
“The first recommendation is to regularly showcase concrete achievements, specific actions, and the presence here of foundations, embassies, teams, and diplomats in the humanitarian sphere and in science. Second, we must be open to questions and inquiries from the media and the public. We also need to use our sociological data to draw conclusions and strengthen our relationships, particularly trade relations,” Urakin noted.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the results of the two survey waves show a high degree of stability in public perceptions. Nearly three-fifths of Ukrainians continue to hold a neutral position, while positive attitudes consistently outweigh negative ones by approximately 20 percentage points.
The survey was conducted in August 2026 using an online self-administered questionnaire via the SunFlowerSociology panel among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. The previous survey wave in March also included 800 respondents; the sample was representative by age, gender, and region, with a maximum theoretical margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points for indicators at the 50% confidence level.
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According to Experts Club, Turkey has the highest net positive sentiment among Ukrainians among the Middle Eastern countries included in the study—44.9 percentage points. More than half of those surveyed—52.3%—view the country positively. At the same time, neutral attitudes prevail toward Saudi Arabia and Jordan, while Lebanon is the only country in this group with a negative balance. This is evidenced by the results of the third wave of the study “Ukrainians’ Attitudes Toward Countries Around the World,” conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club, according to the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center.
52.3% of respondents view Turkey positively, 37.6% neutrally, 7.4% negatively, and another 2.7% were undecided. The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at 44.9 percentage points, compared to 49.4 percentage points in March 2026 and 44.3 percentage points in August 2025. Thus, following a spring increase, the indicator has returned to roughly last year’s level.
Israel ranks second among the countries shown on the slide in terms of the share of positive assessments—35.6%. 39.7% of respondents view it neutrally, 21.9% negatively, and another 2.7% were undecided. The balance stands at 13.7 percentage points and continues to decline: in August 2025, it was 31 percentage points, and in March 2026, it was 18.9 percentage points.
Saudi Arabia is viewed positively by 29% of Ukrainians, while the majority—57.5%—hold a neutral stance. The share of negative assessments is 9%, and the balance is +20 percentage points, compared to 19.8 percentage points in March. Compared to August 2025, when it stood at 25.6 percentage points, the figure remains lower.
Regarding Jordan, 65% of respondents hold a neutral stance—the highest figure in this regional group. 20.5% of those surveyed view the country positively, 7.2% negatively, and another 7.2% are undecided. The balance of positive and negative assessments stands at 13.3 percentage points.
Lebanon has the lowest score. 12.9% of Ukrainians view the country positively, 22.1% negatively, and 57.3% neutrally. The balance stands at minus 9.2 percentage points and is gradually deteriorating: from minus 6.6 percentage points in August 2025 to minus 7.7 percentage points in March and minus 9.2 percentage points in August 2026.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, emphasized the importance of foreign governments maintaining constant communication with the Ukrainian public.
“The first recommendation is to regularly showcase specific achievements and concrete actions. Second, be open to questions and inquiries from the media and the public,” Urakin noted. He also recommended that diplomatic missions systematically inform Ukrainians about the concrete results of cooperation.
Oleksandr Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, drew attention to the need to combine an information presence with the practical development of bilateral relations.
“We should focus not only on raising general awareness. First and foremost, business associations, the Ministry of Economy, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to take action,” Pozniy noted.
In his view, economic and diplomatic institutions should more actively tap into the potential of markets where Ukraine can expand its cooperation.
Overall, the study shows that Ukrainians’ perceptions of Middle Eastern countries vary significantly. Turkey has a distinctly positive image, while neutrality dominates perceptions of Saudi Arabia and Jordan; assessments of Israel are more polarized, and negative assessments of Lebanon outweigh positive ones.
The survey was conducted in August 2026 using self-administered online questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. According to the organizers, the sample is representative by age, gender, and region, and the maximum theoretical statistical margin of error is 3.5%. This is the third wave of the study, following surveys conducted in August 2025 and March 2026.
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Oil prices are rising sharply on Wednesday afternoon, with the price of Brent crude surpassing the $95-per-barrel mark during trading for the first time since early June.
As of 1:31 p.m., the price of September Brent futures on the London-based ICE Futures exchange rose by $2.83 (3.11%) to $93.84 per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices reached $95.47 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) electronic trading platform have risen by $2.69 (3.19%) to $87.03 per barrel.
Both grades are trading at six-week highs amid fears of new disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.
The U.S. and Iran continue to exchange blows, with the U.S. military attacking targets in Iran for the 11th consecutive night. Last night, the U.S. military attacked the Iranian port cities of Chabahar and Konarek, located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, as well as the major industrial center of Tabriz.
In addition, the Yemeni Houthis have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports and are threatening to attack tankers carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strait is a key point on one of the two main routes through which Saudi Arabia exports oil to Asia; the other runs through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We believe that the price of oil will fluctuate between $80 and $90 per barrel depending on the news,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management. “If the Red Sea is indeed closed, prices will jump above $100 per barrel, but we are not seeing that happen yet.”
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported yesterday that U.S. inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had expected a decline of 1.5 million barrels.
The API receives data from refinery operators, oil storage facilities, and pipeline operators on a voluntary basis. Data from the U.S. Department of Energy on oil inventories, which is more important to the market, will be released on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. local time.
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