According to Serbian Economist, Serbia’s economic growth in 2026 could reach about 2.75%, but this scenario largely depends on the further development of the crisis in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices and overall inflation trends.
The energy factor has become particularly sensitive for Serbia in recent days. Against the backdrop of the conflict surrounding Iran, Brent crude has risen above $100 per barrel, and supply disruptions have already forced international organizations and central banks to revise their inflation and economic forecasts. The IMF has warned that sustained growth in energy prices could accelerate inflation and slow global growth, while the ECB has already raised its inflation forecast for 2026 and lowered its estimate for eurozone economic growth.
For Serbia, this poses a double risk—due to imported inflation and the deterioration of conditions for external demand in European markets. The National Bank of Serbia is currently maintaining its own GDP growth forecast for 2026 at 3.5%, but the external shock caused by oil and gas makes this estimate less robust, especially if high prices persist for more than a few weeks.
Additional pressure stems from the domestic fuel market. On March 19, Serbian authorities extended the ban on oil and petroleum product exports until April 2, ordered the release of 40,000 tons of diesel fuel from reserves, and reduced fuel excise taxes by 20% in an effort to prevent shortages and price spikes. The following day, the U.S. also extended the sanctions waiver for NIS until April 17, allowing oil imports to the Serbian market to continue.
Thus, the baseline scenario for Serbia’s economy in 2026 remains positive for now, but it increasingly depends not only on domestic demand and investment but also on geopolitics. If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, growth may remain closer to official forecasts. If, however, the energy crisis drags on, pressure on inflation, consumption, and industry may prove stronger than expected at the beginning of the year.
The protracted conflict in the Middle East could worsen market sentiment, increase inflationary pressures, and slow economic growth, said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, speaking at a symposium organized by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
According to her, in the new global environment, authorities should “think about the unthinkable and prepare for it.” Georgieva noted that the global economy is once again being tested for resilience due to the new conflict in the region.
According to the IMF chief, if oil prices remain 10% higher for most of the year, this could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation.
Against this backdrop, oil prices rose more than 25% on Monday, reaching their highest level since mid-2022. Rising energy prices are fueling fears of a new round of inflation and a slowdown in global economic activity, as well as complicating the scope for further monetary policy easing by leading central banks.
Analysis of the logistics situation in the Middle East and worldwide by the Experts Club analytical center as of March 2, 2026 (the situation is constantly changing).
According to NOTAM monitoring data, as of March 2, the picture is as follows (in parentheses — the duration of current restrictions, which is not a guarantee of reopening): Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Syria, Israel – “total” closure at the FIR/route level, Saudi Arabia – partial closure of corridors near the border with Iraq and in the Persian Gulf area, UAE – formally not “empty sky,” but ESCAT zones have been introduced and commercial traffic is effectively severely restricted.
EU regulators directly classify the situation as high risk for civil aviation not only over Iran, but also over neighboring countries where air defense actions, interception, and spill-over risks are possible.
The key effect is the shutdown or “semi-shutdown” of major Persian Gulf hubs connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. Reuters and other publications describe this as one of the most severe shocks to civil aviation in recent years, with thousands of cancellations and mass passenger relocations.
The largest regional carriers (hubs):
1) Emirates: has temporarily suspended all operations to/from Dubai until at least 3 p.m. UAE time on March 3.
2) Etihad: all flights to/from Abu Dhabi suspended until 14:00 UAE time on March 3.
3) Qatar Airways: operations temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatar’s airspace (resumption – after the regulator’s decision).
Large international groups and long-haul carriers are clearing their schedules en masse, as the “hole” in the corridor forces them to either cancel flights or fly long detours (longer, more expensive, with restrictions on crew working hours).
1) Lufthansa Group: flights to a number of destinations in the region suspended until March 8, with some restrictions on Dubai until March 4, plus an announcement that the group will not use airspace (the list includes Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran; separately – the UAE until March 4).
2) British Airways: announces the cancellation of some flights and offers free date changes for London-Abu Dhabi/Amman/Bahrain/Doha/Dubai/Tel Aviv routes for the period until March 15.
3) Air India: suspension of flights to/from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar until 23:59 (India) on March 2, plus some flights to Europe.
What is happening with air cargo
Here, the blow is twofold:
1) Belly capacity is disappearing: when the passenger network through the Gulf hubs “shuts down,” the holds of wide-body passenger flights, which usually carry a significant share of urgent cargo, disappear with it. This quickly pushes rates up and overloads the remaining freighter capacity.
2) Express chains and last mile in Gulf countries are disrupted:
1) FedEx: announces the suspension of flights to/from a number of markets in the region and the temporary suspension of pickup/delivery in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE “until further notice,” warning of increased transit times in other countries in the region.
2) DHL Express: has temporarily suspended international shipments to/from Israel due to the closure of Israeli airspace.
For cargo, this usually means: more “transshipments,” more ground legs, shifting of some flows to alternative hubs, queues for capacity, and increased delivery times even where the skies are formally open.
In addition to countries with closed or restricted skies, the following are also significantly affected:
1) markets associated with transshipment through the UAE and Qatar (Europe – Asia – Africa),
2) India and South Asia (many destinations in the Gulf, plus onward transit),
3) ATP and European airlines, which have to cancel flights or reroute them on long detours, which affects the economics of the flight and punctuality.
In terms of scale, this already looks like a systemic network failure, rather than a local “detour zone”:
1) Thousands of flights have been canceled, and recovery is complicated by the fact that aircraft and crews are “scattered” around the world and need to be physically returned to the correct points in the network;
2) costs are rising across several areas: fuel (longer routes), airport charges for unscheduled landings, compensation/accommodation, and schedule changes; this is also reflected in the market through the reaction of carrier and tourism sector stocks.
3) Regulatory factors are amplifying the effect: EASA warns of high risk in the area, and the US has long had bans/restrictions on flights in certain FIRs (e.g., Iran and Iraq due to SFAR and security NOTAM).
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will travel to the Middle East next week on his seventh diplomatic mission to the region since the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip began more than six months ago, the Associated Press reported on Saturday, citing the State Department.
According to the AP, Blinken leaves for Saudi Arabia on Monday, just two days after returning to Washington after a trip to China. Blinken will attend a World Economic Forum conference and meet with Arab foreign ministers in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
An Israeli foreign ministry spokesman said that Blinken will visit Israel on Tuesday, and this stop is not mentioned in the State Department’s announcement of Blinken’s itinerary.
Since mid-October, Blinken has been traveling between Israel and most of its Arab and Muslim neighbors in an effort to increase aid to civilians in Gaza, prevent the spread of conflict throughout the region, and build support for plans to rebuild and govern post-war Gaza. – while openly supporting Israel’s right to self-defense.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has increased political pressure in the United States, with pro-Palestinian protests at universities sparking resistance from those who claim the demonstrations have turned into anti-Semitism.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appointed Maxim Subkh as Special Representative of Ukraine for the Middle East and Africa.
The corresponding decree is dated July 12 and published on the website of the head of state.
The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) is in a “critical” position with food and fuel as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to unfold, World Bank Managing Director of Development Policy and Partnerships Mari Pangestu told Al Arabiya TV channel.
“Our forecast team has been estimating that if we see high food and fuel prices last for six months to a year,” she said, “it could negatively impact growth.”
In the global context, “availability and affordability” of food is the UN-backed organization’s concern, according to Pangestu. However, she said that unlike the global food crisis in 2008, the World Bank official clarified that “we actually don’t have a shortage of production.”
“There’s sufficient production of… wheat, rice or other grain products,” she said.
She also said that the food issue goes beyond the Ukraine war.
“Food security and price drops are something that’s not going to go away even after we have resolved the current situation,” Pangestu said.
Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Medi 1 that Russia’s war in Ukraine is affecting food supplies and energy prices around the world.
