The cost of housing in Kiev and the purchasing power of the population are growing at a commensurate pace, and the ratio of price to annual income is at the lowest level over the past 10 years, according to the Financial Stability Report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Although the cost of housing is growing, it still remains affordable in terms of relative indicators. Prices and incomes of the population are growing commensurately. In the first quarter of 2021, purchasing activity in the housing market was almost a tenth higher than the five-year average for the first quarter,” the NBU said in the report.
According to the forecast, the growth of household incomes, the gradual recovery of mortgages and a decrease in the profitability of deposits will stimulate the growth of demand for housing. At the same time, the long-term implementation of the reform of urban planning control can reduce the number of new supply, which, in turn, affects the rise in prices: in April 2021, the growth of prices in Kiev exceeded 10% per year.
According to the NBU, in January-May 2021, Ukraine issued 213 building permits and 253 certificates for the commissioning of new apartment buildings. In addition, over the past year, only half of the permit applications have been approved.
“The average annual ratio between permits and certificates is about 3 to 4, which is a rather low indicator in comparison with the international level and may indicate a slow pace of new housing construction in the future,” the National Bank said.
DYNAMICS OF CHANGES IN DISCOUNT RATE OF NBU
All ten members of the the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) following the meeting on April 14, spoke in favor of raising the discount rate by 1 percentage point (p.p.), to 7.5% per annum in order to bring inflation to the target.
“The MPC members unanimously supported the increase in the discount rate to 7.5%, which is necessary for a gradual slowdown in inflation and its return to the target of 5% in the first half of 2022,” the NBU said in a statement.
According to the document, the participants in the discussion agreed that the forecast trajectory of inflation exceeding expectations, high inflationary expectations, as well as increased inflationary risks on the horizon of monetary policy require a decisive response from the National Bank.
The MPC several members said that temporary shocks related to the rise in fuel and food prices have largely been implemented, and therefore their impact will gradually weaken.
It is noted that the market’s reaction to the increase in the discount rate in March indicates its readiness of the market to perceive the signals of the National Bank, in particular, since the beginning of April, most rates on deposits of various maturities have stopped decreasing, and some of them have slightly increased.
The committee’s members expect that the current increase in the key rate will strengthen the transmission momentum through the interest rate channel, which will first affect interbank rates and rates on corporate deposits of banks, and from the middle of the year – on the profitability of deposits for the population, which will affect the reorientation of part of consumer demand in favor of deposits in banks and, accordingly, will contain its pressure on inflation.
One of the participants in the discussion noted the growth of bank savings of citizens due to the decrease in spending on tourism and certain types of services, access to which was complicated by lockdown.
According to this member, the high liquidity surplus in the banking system weakens the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism: there is no urgent need for banks to strengthen the price competition of deposit resources.
At the same time, another participant in the discussion said that despite the increase in the discount rate, the NBU monetary policy remains soft, since, given the increased inflationary expectations, the level of the neutral discount rate is now from 9% to 9.5%.
He said that if the situation develops according to the basic scenario of the macro forecast, the transition of the National Bank to a neutral monetary policy will take place only in late 2021 or early 2022.
At the same time, he said that the baseline scenario provides for the resumption of cooperation with the IMF in the summer and does not imply an aggravation of the military conflict.
Most of the participants in the discussion believe that the decisions to increase the discount rate in March and April are sufficient to bring inflation to the 5% target in the first half of 2022. At the same time, several participants in the discussion said that inflationary pressures may be underestimated due to the high level of uncertainty, so they did not rule out the need to continue the cycle of increasing the discount rate.
The NBU press service said that the meeting was attended by all ten members of the MPC, including NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko; First Deputy Governor Kateryna Rozhkova; Deputies: Yuriy Helety, Yaroslav Matuzka, Dmytro Solohub and Oleksiy Shaban, as well as department directors: Vitaliy Vavryschuk (financial stability); Volodymyr Lepushynsky (monetary policy and economic analysis); Oleksiy Lupin (open markets) and Yuriy Polovniov (statistics and reporting).
The loan portfolio of Ukrainian banks in April 2021 grew by 1.7%, to UAH 1.076 trillion, and the volume of non-performing loans (NPL) – by 0.8%, to UAH 425.88 billion, according to reports posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
According to its data, the share of non-performing loans in the banking system in April fell from 39.93% to 39.57%.
The National Bank indicated that over the month the portfolio of loans in the corporate sector increased by 1.9%, to UAH 807.408 billion (including the NPL volume in it – by 0.8%, to UAH 369.615 billion), and the portfolio of loans issued to individuals – by 1.6%, to UAH 218.678 billion (NPL – by 0.7%, to UAH 52.289 billion).
At the same time, the volume of interbank loans increased by 0.6%, to UAH 39.388 billion (including NPL decreased by 0.1%, to UAH 980 million), while the volume of loans issued to state and local authorities decreased by 3%, to UAH 10.909 billion (NPL remained at 0).
According to the National Bank, in April, the share of NPL in the portfolio of loans provided to the corporate sector decreased by 0.5 percentage points (to 45.78%), loans to the population – by 0.2 percentage points (to 25.28%), interbank loans – by 0.2 percentage points (to 2.49%), and loans to state authorities remained at the level of 0%.
The central bank report indicates that the loan portfolio of state-owned banks excluding PrivatBank in April 2021 increased by 0.2%, to UAH 299.733 billion (the NPL volume in it increased by 1.8%, to UAH 131.15 billion), while PrivatBank’s loan portfolio grew by 0.4%, to UAH 246.337 million (NPL remained at the level of UAH 177.99 billion).
In addition, over the month, the loan portfolio of banks with foreign capital grew by 3.5% (to UAH 352.736 billion), and with private capital – by 2.6% (to UAH 177.577 billion), while the NPL volume in them decreased by 0.6% (to UAH 93.55 billion) and by 1.7% (to UAH 23.2 billion).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022.
“Considering the fast-paced recovery of the global economy and higherinflationary pressures, the NBU revised its inflation forecast from 7% to 8% in 2021, expecting inflation to return to the 5% target in H1 2022 and settle at this level further on,” the NBU said on its website on Thursday.
The central bank said that inflation will peak in Q3 2021. Inflation will start to decelerate in autumn, return to the 5% ± 1 pp target range in H1 2022, and subsequently remain there.
The steep rise in inflation was largely driven by temporary factors, such as growing global prices for food and energy. A revival in the global economy and the effects of smaller harvests continued to push up prices. A low comparison base also played an important role.
Underlyinginflationary pressures increased due to sustained growth in consumer demand, which was, among other things, fueled by higher wages, the NBU said.
Retail turnovers consistently exceeded pre-crisis levels, being 5.6% year-over-year larger in February, the central bank said.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in March 2021 accelerated year-over-year to 8.5% from 7.5% in February, from 6.1% in January and from 5% in December 2020.
According to the State Statistics Service on Friday, in March inflation increased to 1.7%, while in February it was 1%, in January 1.3%.
In addition, the State Statistics Service in March 2021 recorded underlying inflation of 1.6% compared to the previous month and 2.4% from the beginning of the year.
The Ukrainian government expects inflation of 7.3% in 2021, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) 7%. At the same time, the NBU said that inflation in the first quarter was higher than its expectations. According to the NBU, a turning point ininflationary dynamics may occur in August or September 2021.
