Poland plans to spend 5% of the country’s GDP on defense next year, and possibly this year, Radio Liberty reported on Friday, citing Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk.
“This is a huge amount of money that is spent not by the government, but by Polish citizens,” he said.
The deputy minister added that the government wants to create conditions “for every Pole and every Polish woman to be able to undergo military training.”
“It is in the country’s interest that everyone can undergo such training, and it doesn’t matter if it lasts one day, two days or a week, or if it is basic voluntary military service, but the country must create such conditions,” Tomczyk added.
Trade between Ukraine and Poland amounted to $11.7 billion in 2024, of which Poland exported almost $7 billion to Ukraine and imported $4.6 billion worth of Ukrainian goods, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval said following the results of the Polish-Ukrainian dialogue.
According to him, the event was attended by representatives of Polish business, including Orlen and Anwil, with whom they discussed cooperation in the field of fertilizers and bioethanol development.
The minister said that Ukraine imports a total of 1.5 million tons of diesel fuel and gasoline from Poland and $354 million worth of mineral fertilizers.
“All these imports make up a large part of Ukrainian agricultural products. For example, to grow a ton of Ukrainian corn, we need to import 75% of the ingredients. That is, the profitability of international companies, including Polish ones, depends on the success of Ukrainian farmers,” the minister wrote on Telegram.
Koval expressed his belief in the importance of a dialogue between Ukrainian and Polish businesses. It should be based on numbers, cold reason, and mutually beneficial cooperation: the better Ukraine’s agricultural sector develops, the more benefits there will be for the Polish side and vice versa.
Kowal called on Polish businesses to invest in Ukraine’s agro-processing industry, which needs to increase the added value of its products.
“We appreciate the friends who were with us when it was hard, and these friends will be with us when it is easy. And it will be easy soon, because the darkest time is before dawn… We just need to endure. That is why he urged us to find common ground. After all, Ukraine is not a threat, Ukraine is a partner for moving forward,” summarized the Minister of Agrarian Policy.
World central banks in November, according to preliminary estimates by the World Gold Council (WGC), increased the amount of gold in their foreign exchange reserves by 53.4 tons.
“Looking to the end of 2024, central banks around the world continued to play a leading role in gold demand,” said WGC analyst Krishan Gopaul. – “November was another month of gold purchases, with central banks adding a total of 53 tons to official reserves, according to available data. This continues the trend observed throughout the year: central banks, mostly from emerging markets, remained active buyers of gold, driven by a desire to find a stable and reliable asset in the face of global economic uncertainty.”
The largest buyers of gold in November were Poland (21 tons), Uzbekistan (9 tons), India (8.4 tons), and Kazakhstan (5.1 tons). According to Gopol, for the first time since April, China reported an increase in reserves (plus 5 tons). Other buyers included Jordan (4.1 tons), Turkey (3 tons), the Czech Republic (1.6 tons), Ghana (1.2 tons), Mongolia and Malta (less than a ton).
Singapore was the main seller of gold (5.2 tons). Also in December, the central bank of Finland reported a 10% reduction in its gold reserves to 44 tons, a sale that most likely took place the same month, WGC said.
On January 1, Poland will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second time, 20 years after the country joined the EU.
The Polish authorities have stated that the main goal of the country’s presidency of the EU Council is to implement priorities related to strengthening security. Warsaw motivates this choice, in particular, by the threat to the European Union that it sees from Russia.
“The Polish presidency will support activities to strengthen European security in all its dimensions: external, internal, information, economic, energy, food and health,” the program of the EU Council presidency states.
The Polish presidency promises to make efforts to uphold and promote the principles and values of the EU, emphasizing the special role of civil society.
Explaining its priorities, the Polish presidency points to “rising geopolitical tensions, the erosion of the international rules-based order, and hybrid attacks against European democracy and security.” All of this, according to Warsaw, “obliges us to defend the values on which the community is based, such as democracy, freedom and the rule of law.”
“For Europe, this is a time of tests and decisions. The EU must protect itself and its citizens and take care of its immediate neighbors. It must give Europeans a sense of security and prospects for development… To make Europe safer, we need the unity of the European Union and its willingness to work together with partners who share our values, including those who seek EU membership. We will support merit-based enlargement of the EU – welcoming new members is a geopolitical imperative and an opportunity to spread stability and economic growth across the continent,” the program says.
The Polish presidency announces plans for “continued support for Ukraine and its recovery” and the intention to “increase pressure on Russia and its allies.”
In defining defense tasks, Poland insists on “coordinated and ambitious actions that complement NATO’s efforts.” “It is necessary to increase defense readiness by increasing military spending, strengthening the defense industry and closing gaps in defense capabilities. The Polish Presidency will support these measures and will seek an in-depth discussion on defense funding in the EU. At the same time, member states must increase defense spending and maintain it at a level commensurate with threats,” Warsaw said.
The Polish presidency replaces the Hungarian presidency and, according to the rules of rotation of the EU Council presidency, will provide this function for six months. From July 2025, Denmark will take over the presidency.
Poland will expand the “Eastern Shield” fortification system from the border with Russia and Belarus also to the Ukrainian border, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, Polskie Radio reported.
“Everything we are doing here and will also do on the border with Belarus and Ukraine is aimed at deterring and discouraging the alleged aggressor, so this is really an investment in peace. We will spend billions of zlotys on this, but now the whole of Europe is watching with great pleasure and will support this investment and our activities if necessary. Our activity also concerns border security with Ukraine – for other reasons, but we want Poles to feel safer along the entire length of the eastern border,” Tusk said during a visit to the first constructed section of the fortifications.
He emphasized that the construction of the Eastern Shield will make the Warmian-Masurian, Podlaskie, Lubelskie and Podkarpackie voivodships, which are in Poland’s border regions, safer.
“The better the Polish border is guarded, the less accessible it is to those who would have bad intentions,” the prime minister pointed out.
Tusk assured that countries in the Baltic region will cooperate with Poland to ensure that this infrastructure is effective not only in Polish sections, but also along the entire border, “above all with Russia and Belarus.”
“Eastern Shield” is a program prepared by the Ministry of National Defense and the General Staff of the Polish Army, which involves the construction of various types of fortifications, relief barriers and military infrastructure on Poland’s borders with Russia and Belarus – a total distance of about 800 km. It is also planned to build appropriate intelligence and threat detection systems, forward bases, logistics hubs, warehouses and deploy anti-drone systems.
As of September 30, 2024, 4 million 197.37 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, compared to 4 million 163.66 thousand citizens a month earlier, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of August 2024, the largest absolute increase in the number of recipients was observed in Germany (+7,005; +0.6%), Poland (+4,645; +0.5%) and Spain (+3,170; +1.5%),” the agency said.
It noted that the number of beneficiaries decreased in France (-570; -0.9%) and Italy (-10; -0.0%).
Thus, in September, the growth in the number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status slowed to 33.7 thousand from 39.8 thousand in August.
According to Eurostat, despite Germany’s deprivation of almost 237,000 people of this status in July, it still remains the country with the largest number of them in the EU and the world – 1,129,34 thousand at the end of September, or 26.9% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also includes Poland – 979.84 thousand, or 23.3%, and the Czech Republic – 378.48 thousand, or 9.0%.
Spain (218.30 thousand), Romania (172.41 thousand), and Italy (166.79 thousand) follow with a significant lag.
At the same time, Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece and Cyprus take into account some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in September 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (34.7), Lithuania (28.1) and Poland (26.8), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.3.
It is also said that as of September 30, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.3% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (45.0%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for almost a third (32.3%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (22.7%) of the total. A year earlier, the share of women was 46.5%, children 33.7% and adult men 19.9%.
At the end of September 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand people with temporary protection status in Slovakia – 126.97 thousand, the Netherlands – 119.01 thousand, and Ireland – 107.93 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Belgium – 84.54 thousand, Austria – 81.91 thousand, Lithuania – 81.07 thousand, Norway – 76.11 thousand, Finland – 67.27 thousand, Switzerland – 66.63 thousand, Bulgaria – 64.32 thousand, Portugal – 63.66 thousand and France – 60.10 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat).
This is followed by Latvia – 46.99 thousand people, Sweden – 44.63 thousand, Hungary – 37.99 thousand, Denmark – 36.93 thousand, Estonia – 34.24 thousand, Greece – 31.78 thousand, Croatia – 25.40 thousand, Cyprus – 21.68 thousand, Iceland – 3.92 thousand, Luxembourg – 3.82 thousand, Malta – 2.16 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.66 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2025 to March 4, 2026.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, and 6.752 million in the world as a whole, which is 38 thousand and 27 thousand more than as of September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, between August 1 and October 3, more than 120,000 people left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active hostilities. In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, have been evacuated.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.8 million this year.
In the new report, the National Bank confirmed its expectation that Ukrainians will start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflows in 2026 to 0.2 million from 0.4 million.
