Ukrainian cheese makers traditionally expect sales to pick up in the fall, but in 2025 they plan to raise prices by an estimated 5%, which has led to an increase in sales in the cheapest segment—cheese products, according to the industry analytical agency Infagro.
“This year, seasonal hopes may be dashed by the price situation: against the backdrop of cheaper cheese in the EU (down 8% in August), domestic producers, on the contrary, plan to raise prices by approximately 5%. The rise in the price of Ukrainian cheese is already having an impact: imports are growing, and cheese products are increasingly occupying store shelves—a cheaper alternative that is rapidly gaining popularity among consumers,” analysts noted.
Experts emphasized that due to its lower cost, cheese products are currently showing the most dynamic sales growth. For many buyers, these products are becoming the only affordable option amid the constant rise in the price of “real” cheese.
“In such conditions, cheese makers are forced to share the market not only with imports, but also with domestic competitors who are betting on a more affordable format. The trend of growing consumption of cheese products is expected to continue,” Infagro concluded.
Let’s track the prices as of the end of June 2025 for the main grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, as well as fluctuations in their value on the world market.
The price of wheat (France, FOB) was 235 USD/t, according to market operators on June 25, 2025. This is 1 USD less than last week, 6 USD more than the previous month, and 3 USD more than the previous year. The price of wheat (Ukraine, 2nd grade, CPT) for the central regions (June 26) was 192 USD/t. This figure remained unchanged during the week, decreased by 15 USD over the month, and increased by 45 USD over the year. For ports, the amount was 206 USD/t, which is 3 USD less than a week ago and 18 USD less than a month ago, but 19 USD more than a year ago.
According to the International Grains Council, the price of corn (USA, FOB) as of June 25 was 192 USD/t. This is USD 8 less per week and USD 16 less per month, but USD 3 more per year. The price of corn (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for the central regions was USD 204/t. It did not change during the week, but decreased by USD 4 per month and increased by USD 73 per year. For ports, it was 216 USD/t (also unchanged from the previous week, down 16 USD from the previous month, and up 3 USD from 2024).
“Let’s pay attention to the forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY. It has been reduced by 1 million tons to 1,276 million tons, compared to 1,225 million tons in the current season. However, the forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 1,269 million tons. Therefore, the estimate of final corn stocks has been lowered by 2 million tons (to 282 million tons). This will exceed the current season’s figure by 7 million tons,” said grain market analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
As for the price of barley (France, FOB) as of June 25, it stood at USD 216/t. This is USD 6 less than a week ago and USD 5 less than a month ago, but USD 11 more than a year ago. Let’s analyze the price changes for barley (Ukraine, CPT). As of June 26, the price was (central regions) – 171 USD/t. This is 3 USD more per week and 46 USD more per year, but 30 USD less per month. For ports, the price is 188 USD/t, which is 6 USD more per week, 40 USD more per year, but 2 USD less per month.
Prices for major grain and oil crops exported from Ukraine, end of June 2025
According to Oleksandr Serhiyovych Korenitsyn, the price of sunflower seeds in the EU (Rotterdam, FOB) as of June 25 was USD 655/t. The changes are as follows: +5 USD per week, -14 USD per month, and +170 USD per year. The price of sunflower seeds (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 (central regions) was 509 USD/t. This is 8 USD less per week and 16 USD less per month, but 109 USD was added to the price per year. For ports, the cost is 507 USD/t. The price fell by 6 USD per week and rose by 9 USD per month and 148 USD per year. A ton of sunflower oil (Ukraine, FOB) costs 1,111 USD as of June 26.
The cost increased by $8 per week and by the same amount per month.
The calculation of price fluctuations for soybeans is based on its cost as of June 25 (Brazil, FOB) – $420/t. It decreased by $10 per week and by $16 per year, but increased by $15 per month.
“The price of soybeans (Ukraine, CPT) in the central regions was 349 USD/t on June 26, which is 8 USD less than a week ago, 4 USD less than a month ago, and 23 USD less than in 2024. The price for ports is 368 USD/t. It decreased by 14 USD, 13 USD, and 10 USD over the week, month, and year, respectively,” said analyst Alexander Korenitsyn.
The price of rapeseed (France, FOB) on June 25 was $557/t. Price changes: down $9 per week, up $7 per month, and up $55 per year. The cost of rapeseed (Ukraine, CPT) on June 26 for central regions is 497 USD/t (up 106 USD per year), for ports – 531 USD/t (up 110 USD per year).
agricultural sector, COST, DOLLAR, EXPORT, HARVEST, Oleksandr Korenitsyn, PORT, PRICE, SOYBEANS
The actual selling price of oil and condensate used in determining the royalty for subsoil use in August 2023 amounted to UAH 19,775/tonne, which is 15.1% more than in July (UAH 17,178/tonne). The relevant data is published on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
As reported, in January 2023, the actual selling price amounted to UAH 13,297/tonne, in February – UAH 13,251/tonne, in March – UAH 12,522/tonne, in April – UAH 15,515/tonne, in May – UAH 14,158/tonne, in June – UAH 14,673/tonne, in July – UAH 17,178/tonne.
The spot price of gas in Europe soared above $2,700/ths. cube m for the news about the new repair on the Nord Stream highway.
The price of the nearest (September) TTF futures on the ICE Futures exchange on Friday evening reached $2,712 per thousand cubic meters.
On Friday evening, Gazprom announced that the only working gas-compressor unit of the Nord Stream main’s departure compressor station at the Portovaya CS would be shut down from August 31 to September 2 for three days for maintenance and scheduled preventive work.
The gas pipeline is capable of transporting up to 167 million cubic meters per day. m of gas, but the capacity was reduced due to the violation of the maintenance schedule for the equipment of the starting station of the sea main – the compressor station “Portovaya”. It is equipped with gas compressor units from Rolls-Royce, whose gas turbine business has been taken over by Siemens. Due to Canadian sanctions imposed in response to the military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, one turbine did not return to Russia from the Siemens Energy repair base on time. In the meantime, the time has come for a major overhaul of other engines, both in connection with the operating time between overhauls and in connection with breakdowns.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot commodity price index has already fallen by 20% since it reached a historical record a month ago.
The calculation of the indicator includes 23 futures contracts for energy carriers, metals and agricultural crops.
Despite ongoing supply disruptions, prices for everything from gasoline to wheat are falling on concerns that a stagnating global economy will weigh on demand. This may provide some help in the fight against high inflation in many countries, Bloomberg notes.
Fears are growing in the US that the Federal Reserve will not be able to tame the highest inflation in four decades without plunging the economy into recession. The sharp rise in the US dollar, which makes buying raw materials more expensive for representatives of other countries, also affected commodities traded in the United States. Hedge fund bets that commodities will rise in price have fallen to their lowest level in almost two years.
However, a recession is a “highly anticipated issue” and markets have “clearly overreacted” by bringing commodity prices back to pre-war levels in Ukraine, said portfolio manager Pacific Investment Management Co. Greg Sharenow. Supplies of commodities such as oil remain limited and vulnerable to disruption, he said. The expert expects a resumption of demand in the coming months against the backdrop of China’s economic recovery.
The rate of bitcoin against the US dollar fell on Monday to a minimum of six weeks against the backdrop of a general risk aversion from investors due to signals of the “hawkish” mood of the Federal Reserve System (Fed).
The value of the cryptocurrency fell during trading to the lowest level since March 15, $38,223, which is 20% lower than the peak level recorded last month. As of 15:00 CST, the bitcoin rate is $38,812.
Ether (Ether) on Monday fell to $ 2799 – a minimum since March 18.
Experts note that technical analysis indicators point to the possibility of a further rollback of bitcoin.
“Bitcoin breaks a key two-month trend line, which could mean a further pullback to January lows,” said Fundstrat analyst Mark Newton, quoted by Market Watch. He expects bitcoin to drop to $36,300, and if it goes lower, he could test the $32,950 level.
Currently, bitcoin is closer to the lower end of the $35,000-45,000 price range in which it has been trading since the beginning of this year.
The dynamics of the cryptocurrency clearly correlates with the dynamics of the Nasdaq 100 index of technology companies, with a negative correlation with the dollar.
As investors wait for a substantial increase in the base interest rate by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) in the coming months, some of the factors that support the demand for cryptocurrencies are fading away.
“As it becomes more profitable to hold dollars, investors can shift funds from bitcoin or gold,” Nydig experts say. “We see a negative correlation of bitcoin’s performance with both the dollar and interest rates.”
Bitcoin’s momentum is still largely driven by fundamental factors such as user growth and the expansion of the crypto usage network, but it’s important to understand the emerging macroeconomic links as well, says Nydig.
