The price of sunflower seed in Ukraine rose by $20 over the week—to $460 per metric ton, including VAT, on a CPT mill basis, according to a weekly market review by the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
According to the brokers, Ukrainian oilseeds showed varying trends that week depending on the sales destination. The price of sunflower seeds on a CPT mill basis rose from $440 to $460 per metric ton, while rapeseed on an FCA Chop basis rose from $550 to $555 per metric ton; however, on a CPT mill basis, rapeseed prices fell from $485 to $480 per metric ton.
“The western export channel commands a higher premium, while port and domestic processing parities remain at a discount,” the review notes.
From August 1–27, sunflower oil exports fell by 42.5% compared to the same period in July—to 131.3 thousand metric tons from 228.4 thousand metric tons. Ukraine exported almost no sunflower seeds—0.6 thousand metric tons compared to 2.6 thousand metric tons a month ago. At the same time, overseas sales of sunflower meal increased by 28%—to 83.1 thousand metric tons from 64.9 thousand metric tons.
During this period, Ukraine exported 255,2 thousand metric tons of rapeseed, compared to 11,8 thousand metric tons during the corresponding period in July, marking a 21.6-fold increase. Rapeseed oil exports rose 4.6-fold—to 69,4 thousand metric tons from 15,2 thousand metric tons, respectively. The main buyers of rapeseed were Germany (109.2 thousand metric tons), the Netherlands (84.3 thousand metric tons), and the Czech Republic (25.1 thousand metric tons), which accounted for about 86% of August’s exports of this product.
Soybean exports from August 1–27 fell by 55.6% to 27.1 thousand metric tons. Soybean oil exports totaled 33.3 thousand metric tons, down 11% from the same period in July, while soybean meal exports totaled 70.7 thousand metric tons (-28.9%). Total exports of soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal amounted to 131.1 thousand metric tons, compared to 197.8 thousand metric tons during the same period in July, a decrease of 34%.
For GMO soybeans, the price on a CPT port basis fell from $420 to $410 per metric ton, and on a CPT mill basis from $425 to $400, while the FCA Chop price rose from $435 to $450 per metric ton. In the non-GMO soybean segment, the CPT port price fell from $440 to $430 per metric ton, while the FCA Chop price rose from $470 to $475.
According to Spike Brokers, the price differential between western and other destinations for oilseeds continues to widen. Specifically, the spread between FCA Chop and CPT mill for GMO soybeans widened from $10 to $50 per metric ton over the week, while the difference between FCA Chop and CPT port for non-GMO soybeans increased from $30 to $45 per metric ton.
The price of food-grade wheat in Ukraine fell by $10 over the week—to $185 per metric ton on a CPT Odessa basis—while feed-grade wheat also dropped by $10, to $175 per metric ton, according to a weekly market review by the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“The global grain market ended the week with a further rise, but this trend did not carry over to Ukrainian basis prices,” the review noted.
Wheat exports from Ukraine during August 1–27 fell by half (-49.8%) compared to the same period last month—to 486,600 metric tons from 969,400 metric tons. The main destinations were Bangladesh—251,000 metric tons, Indonesia—243,500 metric tons, and Algeria—226,300 metric tons. These three countries accounted for about 74% of total exports of this product. Saudi Arabia and Yemen followed in terms of volume, with approximately 54,500 metric tons each.
The price of corn on a CPT Odessa basis fell by $5 to $185 per metric ton, while on an FCA Chop basis, it rose by $5 to $225 per metric ton.
Corn exports from August 1–27 totaled 190.7 thousand metric tons, which is 84.3% less than during the same period in July.
According to Spike Brokers, trading in next year’s corn crop is already active along the western border. During the week, October–December quotes on an FCA Zahony–Chop–Batyovo basis ranged from EUR188 to EUR191 per metric ton.
Brokers note that this trade route faces physical constraints on both sides of the border, particularly due to transshipment capacity in Ukraine and the EU, the availability of rail logistics, and the fleet of Euro-standard railcars.
Copper prices continue to rise after reaching record highs at the close of the previous session.
Prices for three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.5% on Tuesday to $14,349.5 per metric ton. On Wednesday, they rose another 0.5% to $14,415.5 per metric ton.
September copper futures on the Comex are trading at $6.73 per pound, which is 0.3% higher than the closing price on August 25.
The Chinese company Zijin Mining warned that flooding at a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo could lead to a reduction in the company’s production this year by 57,000 metric tons, which would put additional pressure on the market.
This year, the price of copper on the LME has risen by approximately 16% due to a significant increase in metal shipments to the U.S. and a reduction in inventories in other countries.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video on global copper production and the leading producing countries – https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
Heavy rains in Brazil have degraded the quality of the new coffee crop and could lead to a shortage of high-quality Arabica beans on the global market, while futures for this variety have risen by approximately 35% since June, according to Bloomberg.
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of Arabica and accounts for about 45% of global production, so problems with harvest quality could affect the supply of premium coffee far beyond the country’s borders.
The main problem was extremely heavy rainfall during the harvest. In June, rains knocked a large number of ripe coffee cherries off the trees, after which they lay on waterlogged ground for several days, increasing the risk of fermentation, mold, and undesirable flavors.
According to Simao de Lima, president of the Expocacer cooperative—which unites more than 800 producers in the Cerrado Mineiro region in southeastern Brazil—the rains knocked down an average of about 20% of the coffee cherries, compared to the usual 5–7%.
Thus, this does not represent a 20% loss of Brazil’s entire harvest, but rather significant damage to the crop in one of the most important regions for the production of high-quality Arabica.
The situation was exacerbated by a second wave of rainfall in July. The rains fell on beans that had already been harvested and laid out to dry, forcing some producers to start the drying process all over again.
According to data from the meteorological company Vaisala, rainfall in certain areas of Brazil’s coffee belt in June and July reached 250–500% of the climate norm, and in some places, up to eight times more rain fell than usual.
Quality issues are already affecting the market. Arabica futures have risen by about 35% since June, offsetting a significant portion of the price decline since the beginning of the year.
In the physical market, high-quality Brazilian coffee is selling at a premium of up to 15 cents per pound compared to futures in New York.
The reduction in the volume of coffee meeting the delivery standards for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) certified warehouses in the U.S. and Europe could prove particularly significant.
In a typical year, approximately 30–35% of the Cerrado Mineiro region’s production meets ICE requirements. Following this year’s rains, de Lima estimates that this share could drop to 10–15%. Meanwhile, coffee stocks in ICE-certified warehouses are already approaching their lowest levels of this century.
This could intensify competition among international roasters for high-quality beans. Bloomberg notes that Brazilian Arabica is used, in particular, by companies such as Starbucks, Lavazza, and Illy.
However, it is still too early to speak of a general coffee shortage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects that in the season beginning in October, global coffee supply will exceed consumption by approximately 10 million bags, which would be the largest surplus in six years. One of the main factors is expected to be record production in Brazil itself.
Therefore, the market’s main problem lies not so much in the total volume of coffee as in the availability of high-quality Arabica. Major producers can partially offset the shortage by adjusting the composition of their coffee blends and sourcing beans from other regions; however, for the premium segment, the situation could lead to further increases in purchasing and retail prices.
Weather remains an additional risk for the market. Reuters notes the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, which in the 2026–2027 season could further increase volatility in the markets for coffee, cocoa, and other tropical agricultural commodities.
Wheat trade in Ukraine remains sluggish, while the corn market continues to see some activity, primarily along the western border, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
According to the firm, prices for Ukrainian wheat with an 11.5% protein content on a DAP-Danube basis stand at $166–168 per metric ton.
“An imbalance between supply and demand persists in the Ukrainian wheat market. A shortage of EU quotas, logistics at the western border booked months in advance, and the absence of panic among importers are holding back trading activity and putting downward pressure on prices,” the report states.
Quotes for Ukrainian corn on a DAP Izov basis stand at $173 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market is in the off-season and awaiting the resumption of deep-water exports. Some activity continues along the western border for both the old crop and forward contracts,” analysts note.
Prices for food and feed wheat in Ukraine remained unchanged over the week—$195 and $185 per metric ton, respectively, on a CPT Odessa basis, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“Ukrainian wheat exports in August are estimated at 500,000 metric tons, compared to the usual 2 million metric tons for this month. Russian wheat exports in August are expected to reach 2 million metric tons, compared to 4.5 million metric tons last year. The flow of Ukrainian wheat to Constanta has begun to increase but remains limited for now. Efforts are being made to compensate for the shortage of Ukrainian wheat on the global market through other exporters,” the report states.
The price of corn also remained unchanged at $190 per metric ton on a CPT Odessa basis and $220 per metric ton on an FCA Chop basis.
According to brokers, the price of sunflower seeds also remained unchanged at $440 per metric ton (including VAT) on a CPT mill basis.
At the same time, rapeseed prices at the western border rose by $5—to $550 per metric ton on an FCA Chop basis. The price of rapeseed on a CPT port basis was $500 per metric ton, and on a CPT mill basis—$485 per metric ton.
Soybean prices also remained unchanged: GMO soybeans were priced at $420 per metric ton on a CPT port basis, $435 on an FCA Chop basis, and $425 on a CPT plant basis, while non-GMO soybeans were priced at $440 per metric ton on a CPT port basis and $470 on an FCA Chop basis.
According to Spike Brokers, global corn prices rose over the week, but Ukrainian prices remained unchanged due to physical export constraints. At the same time, the highest premium in the soybean market remains in the non-GMO segment along the western border.
