The Norwegian government is tightening its rules regarding refugees from Ukraine: men aged 18 to 60, with some exceptions, will no longer be granted temporary protection in the country; this change will take effect shortly (Relocation).
“Since the fall of 2025, too many people have arrived in Norway, especially young men. Norway has already accepted the largest number of Ukrainians in Scandinavia, and Norwegian municipalities are reporting strain on the service delivery system and a shortage of housing. “That is why we are tightening the restrictions,” said Minister of Justice and Emergency Situations Astrid Hansen. “We also consider it important that as many people as possible remain in Ukraine to join the defense effort and support the functioning of Ukrainian society,” she added.
The change in regulations will mean that men aged 18 to 60 will no longer be covered by the temporary collective protection mechanism, under which temporary residence permits are granted based on a group assessment. Those applying for asylum will have their applications processed in the usual manner.
The government has provided for certain exceptions to these stricter requirements.
“First, they will apply only to new applicants and will not affect those who already have temporary collective protection in Norway. The stricter requirements will also not apply to minors or men over 60 years of age, men who have documented proof of exemption from military service or are clearly unable to perform it, or individuals evacuated under the medevac program. An exception is also made for men who are the sole caregivers for accompanying children or children in Norway. This applies only to the child’s father or another close family member,” the government statement noted.
In Romania, social support for Ukrainian refugees under temporary protection is provided, in particular, through the minimum inclusion income system; when determining eligibility for such assistance, the applicant’s total income is taken into account, including their Ukrainian state pension. This is stated in the explanations provided by the Dopomoha.ro portal.
According to the published information, Ukrainians under temporary protection in Romania are eligible for various social benefits under Law No. 196/2016 on the minimum inclusive income, as well as other support programs. The platform’s materials note that assistance depends on the applicant’s individual circumstances and legal status.
As indicated by publications on this topic, when transitioning to this support model, the authorities assess the household’s total income, and the Ukrainian pension is included in this calculation as income. This means that the amount of the Romanian social benefit may be reduced to account for the pension already received from Ukraine.
At the same time, other forms of assistance remain available to Ukrainians in Romania, including child benefits, support for mothers of newborns, unemployment benefits, and access to social services for people with disabilities. The amount and type of support depend on the specific category of the applicant and the documents submitted.
Thus, the key change for some Ukrainian refugees in Romania is that the pension from Ukraine is considered part of their total income and affects the amount of targeted social assistance they can receive under the Romanian system. According to Eurostat, as of the end of January 2026, there were over 193,000 people under temporary protection in Romania who had left Ukraine.
According to Serbian Economist, Montenegro has extended temporary protection for people from Ukraine until March 4, 2027, according to a decision published in Službeni list Crne Gore No. 27/26.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Montenegro has called on Ukrainian citizens whose foreigner’s certificate with temporary protection status is valid until March 4, 2026, to contact the territorial division of the Ministry of Internal Affairs at their place of residence to exchange the document and extend their status. For those applying for the first time after the decision comes into force, temporary protection will also be granted until March 4, 2027.
According to the Montenegrin Ministry of Internal Affairs, since the decision on temporary protection came into force (March 14, 2022) until March 2, 2026, 15,820 applications have been submitted, of which 14,893 have been approved.
Temporary protection in Montenegro entitles beneficiaries to legal residence and access to basic rights, including employment, medical care, and education, in accordance with national legislation. The decision was taken in light of the extension of temporary protection for persons from Ukraine at the EU level until March 4, 2027.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2383
The average employment rate of Ukrainian refugees aged 20-64 in European countries in mid-2025 was 57%, including self-employment and informal work, which is 22 percentage points (pp) lower than the comparable figure for citizens of the host country, according to a UNHCR survey on the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labor market.
“The results vary significantly: countries bordering Ukraine tend to have the highest employment rates, while Western and Northern European countries show significantly lower rates, even when differences in refugee profiles are taken into account,” the document, which is based on data from 6,817 respondents, notes.
According to the publication, 3% of those aged 20-64 (or 5% of those in work) are self-employed or entrepreneurs.
It is noted that proficiency in the local language is one of the strongest predictors of employment, and a longer stay in the host country is also associated with improved access to the labor market.
According to the data, Estonia and Hungary lead in terms of employment, with 72% and 71% respectively, followed by the United Kingdom (69%), Poland (68%), Bulgaria (67%), the Czech Republic (66%), and the Netherlands (64%).
Spain (61%), Italy (58%), Lithuania (57%), France (53%), Romania (50%), Moldova, Ireland, and Belgium (46% each) are close to the average.
According to the survey, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees are significantly lower in Sweden (43%), Finland (40%), Denmark and Germany (39% each), Norway (37%), and Switzerland (29%).
“However, the problem of underemployment remains widespread. Nearly 60% of working refugees report that they are working below their skill level, and they are almost twice as likely as citizens of the country to hold low-skilled jobs,” the UNHCR document states.
According to the document, more than a third of refugees with higher education work in low-skilled professions, compared to 7% of citizens of the host country. According to the researchers, this mismatch between skills is likely to be the main reason for the 40% median wage gap between refugees and host countries.
It is also noted that, unlike employment rates, underemployment does not improve significantly over time when language, sector continuity, education, and labor market barriers are taken into account, indicating the presence of structural barriers that require targeted intervention.
According to UNHCR, reducing gaps in employment and productivity will lead to significant macroeconomic benefits: if average national targets are achieved, this could increase annual GDP growth by up to 0.7 percentage points in some countries, especially those with large refugee populations and significant productivity gaps.
Among other findings of the study, adults aged 50-64 are about 10 percentage points less likely to be employed than those who are younger. Men are 7 percentage points more likely to be employed than women. Having a vocational diploma increases the probability of employment by about 5 percentage points compared to those with only a secondary education. However, higher degrees provide only limited additional benefits—about 10 percentage points overall—with little difference between bachelor’s and master’s degrees.
Living with young children under the age of 6 reduces the probability of employment by 11 percentage points, which is consistent with other studies that identify childcare constraints as a significant barrier.
At the same time, living alone increases the probability of employment by 8 percentage points.
Surprisingly, living with elderly people (65+) is associated with a 6 percentage point increase in the probability of employment, suggesting that most elderly people may not require intensive care from household members, but rather provide support with household chores.
In terms of language, respondents who report at least some knowledge of the local language are 13 percentage points more likely to be employed than those who do not know it at all or have only minimal knowledge. It is noteworthy that a higher level of language proficiency does not seem to provide additional advantages, which means that the types of jobs available to Ukrainian refugees (mostly low-skilled) may not require a high level of language proficiency.
Finally, the study notes that there is a clear link between the likelihood of finding employment and the time elapsed since arrival. Although there is no significant difference between arrivals in the last six months and those in the last year, the probability of employment increases by 10 percentage points relative to the baseline for those who arrived 1–2 years ago, by 14 percentage points for those who arrived 2–3 years ago, and by 20 percentage points for those who arrived more than three years ago.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of January 16, 2026, was estimated at 5.349 million (5.311 million as of December 11), and 5.898 million (5.860 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for the end of 2025, there were 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.340 million in July and 3.76 million in April.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has estimated the financial needs for assisting Ukrainian refugees in 2026 at $614 million, which is 23.6% less than the plan for 2025 ($803.6 million), according to a publication on the office’s website.
“In 2025, the intensification of hostilities, including increased air attacks and strikes on critical infrastructure, led to significant civilian casualties and new displacements – trends that will continue to shape needs both inside and outside Ukraine in 2026,” the UNHCR states, emphasizing the severity of the problem four years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, according to the publication, last year the level of funding for the Ukrainian refugee assistance plan fell to 43.7% or $351.1 million, compared to 64% or $635.7 million in 2024. This is significantly less than 84% or $924 million in 2023 and 91.7% or $1.1 billion in the first year of Russia’s full-scale aggression.
According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission report for December 2025, last year was the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since 2022: 2,514 civilians were killed and 12,142 were injured as a result of war-related violence, which is 31% more than in 2024. By the end of 2025, there were 5.86 million refugees from Ukraine registered worldwide, of whom about 5.3 million were in Europe. Another 3.7 million people remained internally displaced in Ukraine, with 73% of them having been displaced for more than two years.
“According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) for 2026, more than 10.8 million people in Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance and protection in 2026, with many people having been displaced multiple times and their vulnerability exacerbated by the ongoing war,” the document says.
It is estimated that by September 2025, more than 1.4 million refugees from Ukraine will have returned to their places of residence and remained in Ukraine for at least three months, including more than 0.3 million who did not return to their former homes.
“Changes on the front line continue to cause new displacements: from June to December 2025, more than 150,000 people were evacuated from frontline areas with the support of the government or humanitarian organizations, and even more people fled on their own,” the publication says.
It notes that an estimated 2.5 million displaced families in Ukraine still do not have access to adequate housing. At the same time, large-scale Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in the winter of 2025/26 left millions of people without reliable heating, water, and electricity in sub-zero temperatures.
“In refugee-hosting countries, some refugees continue to face barriers in accessing housing, decent work, health care, education, and social protection, while vulnerability continues to deepen over time as the full-scale war continues,” UNHCR adds.
According to the document, the plan for 2026 aims to help 2.1 million people in Ukraine and 482,000 Ukrainian refugees in other countries. Accordingly, the financial needs for assistance within Ukraine are estimated at $470 million, and outside Ukraine at $144 million, of which $64 million is in Moldova, $21.8 million in Romania, and $18.4 million in Poland.
The UNHCR specified that of these 2.1 million Ukrainians within the country, it wants to provide 955,000 with protection services, 652,000 with cash assistance, 325,000 with materials for housing repairs or settlement support, and another 178,000 with basic necessities.
According to the publication, in 2024, the UNHCR’s assistance plan in Ukraine was funded at 44% or $243 million, compared to 57% or $338.5 million in 2024. This led to a reduction in the number of services provided to 1.14 million as of November 2025, compared to 1.6 million for the same period in 2024.
As part of the 2025-2026 winter assistance, as of December 5, 176,000 people received cash support, which is 32% less than in 2024-2025, when 258,300 people received support.
It is noted that UNHCR works in Ukraine with 12 partners, 11 of which are local, and with 39 partners in 11 other countries, 33 of which are local.
Participants in the panel discussion “Challenges of the Ukrainian Labor Market. Mobilizing Human Capital for Sustainable Reconstruction” at the forum on Ukraine’s reconstruction in Bucharest concluded that the country needs a two-pronged policy for sustainable economic recovery: creating conditions for the return of those who wish to do so, while simultaneously supporting the active diaspora as a resource for investment and knowledge transfer.
The panel was moderated by Adam Eberhart, Deputy Director of the Center for East European Studies at the University of Warsaw (SEW UW). The discussion was joined by Svitlana Kovalchuk, Executive Director of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) Bogdan Zavadetchik, President of the Charitable Foundation “Resources and Public Initiatives” in the Chernivtsi region Olena Tanasychuk, representative of the Ukrainian diaspora in the UK at Ealing Community & Voluntary Service (ECVS) Ania Abdulah, and Osamu Hattori, Head of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) office in Ukraine.
According to surveys cited by participants, most Ukrainian refugees would only consider returning if there were reliable guarantees of security and a stable economic situation. At the same time, statistics show that after two to three years abroad, the likelihood of returning decreases sharply due to deeper integration of people into their host countries, particularly through employment, children’s education, and access to social services. “The longer people stay abroad, the more their lives shift—and the harder it is to convince them to start from scratch at home,” Ebergart noted.
Separately, experts noted that the potential opening of borders could trigger a new wave of emigration, particularly among men of conscription age, who are currently restricted from leaving due to mobilization rules. Against this backdrop, participants emphasized the need for policies that, on the one hand, create the conditions for return—through security, jobs, housing, and access to services—and, on the other hand, support a strong and organized diaspora.
The discussion concluded that the Ukrainian diaspora can remain an important resource for the country’s development even without physical return, through investment, professional networks, educational and expert projects. “The question is not only how many people will return, but also how many of them, wherever they live, will remain actors in Ukraine’s development,” Kovalchuk concluded. Participants agreed that a coordinated human capital policy should be one of the key elements of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction strategy.
The forum “Rebuilding Ukraine: Security, Opportunities, Investments” is being held on December 11-12 in Bucharest under the auspices of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is organized by the New Strategy Center. According to the organizers, more than 30 panel discussions and parallel sessions are planned over two days with the participation of representatives of governments, international organizations, the private sector, financial institutions, and experts from Europe, North America, and Asia. The topics of the panels cover security and defense, infrastructure, financing and investment, green energy, digitalization, human capital, and cross-border cooperation.
