Average retail prices for petrol and diesel fuel in Ukraine in the period from December 21 through December 28, 2018 fell by 0.78-0.88%, while prices of LPG by 2.3%, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group (Kyiv).
As reported, in 2017, average retail prices for petrol in Ukraine increased 19.2-20.1% (UAH 4.61-4.76 per liter), and for diesel fuel 22.6% (UAH 4.84 per liter). At the same time, average prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), despite a sharp increase in August due to deficit, showed an increase of only 2.9% for the year (by UAH 0.36 per liter).
Changes in average retail fuel prices UAH per liter in Ukraine:
©Source: A-95 Consulting Company
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine, excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol and Donbas, in January-November 2018 in comparable prices increased by 6.2% compared with January-November 2017, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in November 2018 rose by 1.2% compared with October, while by 5.6% from November 2017.
The largest growth in retail trade turnover in the first 11 months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017 was observed in Luhansk (by 27.8%), Donetsk (by 14.7%), Poltava (by 12.4%), and Zakarpattia (by 12%) regions.
The leaders in absolute terms of the volume of retail turnover for the 11 months were Kyiv city (UAH 157.37 billion), Dnipropetrovsk (UAH 75.8 billion), Kharkiv (UAH 64.61 billion), Odesa (UAH 61.877 billion), Kyiv (UAH 58.828 billion), and Lviv regions (UAH 51.362 billion).
According to the service, retail trade turnover in Donetsk region in January-November 2018 compared to January-November 2017 increased by 14.7% (to UAH 25.65 billion), Luhansk region by 27.8% (to UAH 7.27 billion).
The State Statistics Service said that trade turnover at retail enterprises (legal entities) in November 2018 compared with November 2017 grew by 5.2%, and compared to October 2018 by 1.1%, amounting to UAH 59.496 billion, for the 11 months grew by 5.8%, to UAH 595.675 billion.
In the first 11 months of 2018, wholesale turnover at enterprises rose by 4.3% compared to the corresponding period last year and amounted to UAH 2.003 trillion.
Average retail prices for petrol and diesel fuel in Ukraine in the period from November 30 through December 7, 2018 fell by 1.99-2.81%, while prices of LPG by 4.24%, according to data from the A-95 Consulting Group (Kyiv).
As reported, in 2017, average retail prices for petrol in Ukraine increased 19.2-20.1% (UAH 4.61-4.76 per liter), and for diesel fuel 22.6% (UAH 4.84 per liter). At the same time, average prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), despite a sharp increase in August due to deficit, showed an increase of only 2.9% for the year (by UAH 0.36 per liter).
Changes in average retail fuel prices UAH per liter in Ukraine:
©Source: A-95 Consulting Company
The pace of growth of retail lending in Ukraine in 2019 could be 30-40%, according to bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine. “In 2019, consumer loans will remain the main component and driver of growth in the loan portfolio of banks and the main direction of retail lending: they now form more than 80% of all retail loans in hryvnias. The growth rate of retail loans may reach 40%, the most dynamic growth will remain in short term loan segments – up to one year, as well as from one to five years,”, Deputy Board Chairman, Director for Retail Business at Credit Dnepr Bank Oleh Pakhomov said.
Pakhomov said that in 2019, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 3% from 3.2-3.5% in 2018, while the consumer segment will be again the driver rather than the real economic sector. At the same time, inflationary dynamics forces the NBU to maintain a tight monetary policy, raising the refinancing rate and thus increasing the cost of the hryvnia resource in the market. In these circumstances, banks will still prefer to place part of their resources not in credit programs, but in risk-free operations with deposit certificates and government bonds.
Board Chairperson of IBOX Bank Halyna Kheilo said that the growth rate of lending to the population in 2019 could reach 30%.
Head of the RwS Bank’s lending department Natalia Holub said that retail lending will grow by 30% next year.
“Given that the average loan term for retail products is two years and the outlined pace, the growth of the retail loan portfolio in 2019 will be 12-15%, and the volume of retail lending will grow by 30%,” she said.
Deputy Board Chairman for Retail Business at FUIB Sebastian Rubaj said that the portfolio of retail lending to banks will grow by approximately 15%.
Director of Retail Banking at Ukrgasbank Oleh Kliapko said that in 2019, the focus of retail lending will shift to high-margin products with short turnarounds. Priority areas will be cash loans and credit cards.
Bankers believe that retail loan rates in 2019 will remain high.
