Against the backdrop of growing tensions between India and Pakistan, a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club highlights Ukrainians’ views on how they see our country’s diplomatic position in the event of an escalation of the conflict between these two nuclear powers.
According to the poll, the vast majority of Ukrainians — 90.3% — are in favor of Ukraine taking a neutral position in the event of a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war. This shows that people want diplomatic restraint on issues that don’t directly affect national interests.
Only 8% of respondents expressed support for some form of support for India (4.7% — full support, 3.3% — partial support). As for Pakistan, only 1.6% supported this country (0.3% — partial support, 1.3% — full support for Pakistan’s position).
These results echo Ukrainians’ broader perceptions of these two countries. According to separate surveys
26.7% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward India, while 55.3% are neutral.
26.7% have a positive attitude toward Pakistan, while 55.3% are neutral.
“The predominance of neutrality in the choice of diplomatic course towards India and Pakistan indicates a low level of inclusion of the topic in Ukraine’s information space. At the same time, this is a sign of a mature approach to foreign policy in the eyes of citizens,” notes Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of Experts Club.
Despite the fact that some respondents show moderate sympathy for India, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens adhere to a position of non-interference. This may indicate a high level of awareness of armed conflicts outside their own region.
In April, the sociological company Active Group, together with the Experts Club information and analytical center, conducted a public opinion survey on international sympathies of Ukrainians. The survey was conducted online among 800 respondents, representative of age, gender and regions. The purpose of the study was to find out which countries enjoy the greatest trust and sympathy in Ukrainian society.
“This study confirms the general vector of public sentiment in Ukraine, which has intensified since the outbreak of a large-scale war. Ukrainians clearly associate the support received primarily from the European Union and the United Kingdom with a positive attitude towards them,” said Alexander Poznyi, co-founder of Active Group, at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
According to the survey, Ukrainians have the most positive attitude towards the UK – 77.2% of respondents gave positive answers, Canada (76.3%) and France (74%). It is particularly significant that only 1.1% of respondents were completely negative about France. Germany currently enjoys the support of 68.8% of Ukrainians. According to Oleksandr Poznyi, the high level of trust in this country is primarily determined by long-term support for Ukrainian reforms and the defense industry, policy toward Ukrainian refugees, and other initiatives.
Ukrainians have a moderately positive attitude toward the United States of America: 36.1% of respondents assess the United States positively, while another 31.2% are neutral. On the other hand, almost a third – 29.9% – have a negative attitude toward the country. According to experts, these results indicate a deep polarization in the perception of the United States within Ukraine, which is caused by changes in American policy after the new administration came to power.
“For many Ukrainians, the United States is still a guarantor of support, but it is also a country with an ambivalent role in global conflicts, which can cause a mixed reaction in society,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Ukrainians are quite critical of Hungary (56% negative attitude) and Slovakia (34.6% negative).
“Such results are not unexpected – the official rhetoric of Budapest and Bratislava often diverges from the interests of Ukraine and is seen as pro-Russian, which cannot but be reflected in public opinion,” commented Oleksandr Poznyi.
The situation with China is no better: 42.8% of Ukrainians have a negative opinion of this country, while only 19.6% have a positive one. At the same time, 27.6% chose a neutral answer.
“It is particularly interesting that even Ukraine’s economically important partners, such as China (the largest trading partner), receive low support ratings among Ukrainians. This indicates that Ukrainian society places moral support above actual trade and does not recognize “neutrality” unless it is accompanied by humanitarian gestures,” said Maksym Urakin.
There is a high level of trust in Japan: 66% of respondents have a positive attitude, while only 3.6% have a negative attitude. Japan is perceived as a country with a high cultural reputation and technological leadership. South Korea also has a positive attitude from 49.7% of Ukrainians, although the level of negativity is slightly higher at 14%.
Turkey, despite partnership projects (particularly in the field of drones), has a rather ambiguous perception: 46.4% of respondents have a positive attitude toward it, and 12% have a negative attitude.
Ukrainians have a favorable attitude toward Brazil, with 33.3% positive versus 9.3% negative, and mostly neutral attitudes toward other Latin American countries. This, according to Oleksandr Poznyi, indicates a neutral interest rather than a clearly defined position.
Regarding Saudi Arabia, 25.2% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude, and 9.5% have a negative attitude. The rest of the respondents either have a neutral position or refrained from answering.
“These countries are trustworthy due to their efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine, including prisoner exchanges, and also act as a negotiation platform, and they are also of interest in the economic sphere,” Urakin said.
According to Mr. Poznyi, the findings of the study are an indicator of international trust and the potential for the development of bilateral relations between Ukraine and other countries.
Maksym Urakin, in turn, added that the image of states in the perception of Ukrainians can be improved by supporting projects to restore Ukraine (even without military involvement), establishing direct dialogue through embassies and public diplomacy projects, explaining their position through the historical context without avoiding publicity.
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In the Southeast Asian region, Ukrainians have the most positive attitude toward Japan and South Korea. This is evidenced by the results of a joint study by the Experts Club think tank and the Active Group research company, presented at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“Our research has shown that in East Asia, Ukrainians are most supportive of Japan and South Korea. Attitudes toward these countries largely depend on their support for Ukraine after the war began. In the Caucasus region, a positive attitude toward Georgia remains. Also, more than 50% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude towards Kazakhstan. The lowest level of support was recorded for such countries as the DPRK, Syria, and Iraq,” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the Active Group research company.
According to the expert, the negative attitude of Ukrainians toward China is also quite eloquent.
“Only 4% of citizens have a positive attitude toward China, 16.7% have a mostly positive attitude, 58.8% have a negative attitude, and 20% have not decided. Currently, China’s position is not entirely unambiguous in relation to Ukraine, which is reflected in the attitude of Ukrainians,” Mr. Poznyi emphasized.
In his turn, Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank and deputy director of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, presented an analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade with a number of Asian countries based on data from the State Customs Service for 2023.
“The largest market for Ukrainian goods in Asia is China – more than $2 billion. India ranks second, followed by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Iraq, and Indonesia. As for imports, China is also the largest importer to Ukraine, with more than $10 billion. It is followed by India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. In terms of total trade between Ukraine and these countries, China is also the leader, with almost $13 billion. India ranks second – 2.5 billion, followed by Japan – almost a billion,” said Urakin.
According to him, the analysis of economic data shows that Ukraine has significant trade ties with the countries of the Middle East and East Asia. At the same time, China remains one of our country’s largest trading partners in terms of both exports and imports.
“The problem of trade deficit remains, as Ukraine spends a lot of money on imports, while earning little on exports. This is a real problem. In 2023, Ukraine’s trade deficit with all countries is over $27 billion. The deficit with China is $8 billion. Among the countries represented today, we have a positive balance only with Iraq – almost $200 million in favor of Ukraine, Georgia – $100 million, and Armenia – $54 million,” Urakin added.
Chairman of the Ukrainian-Arab Business Council, member of the Council of National Communities of Ukraine Dr. Emad Abu Alrub emphasized that the importance of Ukraine’s relations with the countries of Asia and the Arab world cannot be overestimated, and Ukraine is currently taking important steps to develop these relations.
“Ukraine has significant opportunities in the markets of Arab countries, which have a total population of over 550 million. Arab countries are a permanent market for our goods. After 2014, new markets opened up for our country, especially in Asia. The Ukrainian Arab Business Council is actively working to develop these relations. We need to create a strategic plan to improve relations at the level of economy, politics, and culture. We have significant chances for success, but we need better communication and marketing,” emphasized Dr. Abu Alrub.
He also added that Saudi Arabia is interested in cooperating with Ukraine by investing not only in trade, but also in agriculture, technology, and other projects. Other interesting countries are the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt. All of them also have great potential for investment in Ukraine.
In conclusion, Maksym Urakin called on foreign embassies to be more active in establishing communication with Ukrainian society.
“If you can, please provide information to journalists about what you are doing here, how you are helping in the humanitarian sphere. Through these ties, we will deepen our cooperation, because the way Ukrainian citizens view your countries also depends on your work,” he concluded.
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According to Ukrainians, the countries of the Arab world are neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This was revealed by a joint study by Active Group and the Experts Club think tank, “Attitudes of Ukrainians toward the Middle East and Central Asia,” which was presented at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
“The analysis includes a predominantly positive attitude of our citizens towards such countries as Israel (72.5%) and Turkey (55%), while the attitude towards other countries in the region is mostly neutral. Ukrainians are extremely negative about Iran (76%) and mostly negative about Afghanistan (52.6%),” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of the research company Active Group.
In addition, the expert added that Ukrainians are mostly positive about countries with which they have trade or cultural ties. This is natural, as such ties promote mutual respect between societies and countries.
In his turn, Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the research company Active Group, emphasized that the attitude of Ukrainians towards the Middle East and Central Asia varies depending on many factors.
“We can see that the attitude of citizens is really certain only in relation to two countries – Iran and Israel. These are the countries where the percentage of those who find it difficult to answer is less than 20%. The rest of the countries have a much higher percentage of uncertainty, which indicates that Ukrainians are not well informed about these countries,” emphasized Eremenko.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, added that building cooperation with the Middle East and Central Asia is very important for the development of the Ukrainian economy, especially in the agricultural and IT sectors. These industries have great potential for development and can become the basis for a mutually beneficial partnership.
“It is necessary to implement a state strategy to reduce the trade deficit and increase Ukraine’s export potential. This will create a more balanced and sustainable economy that will be less dependent on external factors. Ukraine may be interested in agricultural products, IT clusters, and educational services. We are interested in sales markets, agricultural technologies, metallurgy, and chemistry,” Urakin emphasized.
According to him, trade between Ukraine and the countries under study is currently growing rapidly.
“Turkey is the largest trading partner among the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, accounting for more than half of all trade with these countries. This shows the importance of Turkey for the Ukrainian economy,” the founder of Experts Club added.
According to Urakin, a balanced foreign economic policy in the region can not only significantly improve Ukraine’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, but also have a positive impact on the overall state of the economy.
The results of the study are available here.
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The survey, conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Experts Club think tank, revealed citizens’ attitudes to various aspects of social and economic life in Ukraine, including the initiative to refund part of the cost of Ukrainian goods, the government’s influence on business, the level of trust in law enforcement, financial stability of citizens, and forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate.
A significant proportion of respondents (44%) have heard of the initiative to refund the cost of purchasing Ukrainian goods, with opinions divided on its impact on living standards. Most respondents believe that the government will increase taxes to finance this initiative.
According to Andriy Yeremenko, founder of the sociological research company Active Group, this raises concerns among the population, as most are not ready for an increase in the fiscal burden.
The study also revealed a deep distrust of government institutions (57% of citizens) and law enforcement agencies (62%) in the context of relations with business, in particular due to the lack of transparency and efficiency of their work. The majority of respondents believe that the state hinders rather than helps business to develop, and this trend has increased compared to previous months.
A significant number of Ukrainians (up to 60%) are experiencing financial difficulties, including increased debt and lack of savings for a rainy day. Respondents also expressed concern about the future of the hryvnia exchange rate, with the majority (55%) expecting it to fall.
In the context of utility bills, the vast majority (67%) of respondents believe that the level of tariffs is too high, which further emphasizes the general dissatisfaction with the financial situation and government policy in this area.
According to Oleksandr Poznyi, Director of Active Group, these results demonstrate the serious challenges faced by Ukrainian society in the context of the war and the current economic situation.
Earlier, Maksym Urakin, the founder of the Experts Club think tank, noted that in 2024 Ukraine’s public debt may exceed GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability in the country.
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More than 65% of Ukrainians surveyed cannot recall a single brand of domestically produced wine. This is evidenced by the results of a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in cooperation with the Kyiv-based analytical center Experts Club.
Among the domestic wine brands most frequently mentioned by Ukrainians are Koblevo, Shabo, Villa Krym, Bolgrad, Chizay, Kolonist, Inkerman, Oreanda and others. Also, only 30% of respondents have tasted Ukrainian-made craft wine at least once in their lives, and 17% do not know what craft winemaking is.
On the other hand, 54% of respondents would prefer Ukrainian wine if they had to choose a bottle for a visit or a party. At the same time, 47% of respondents prefer Ukrainian alcohol in general, while 27% prefer imported alcohol, and 27% are undecided.
In addition, the survey showed that 30% of citizens do not drink alcohol at all, 28% drink alcohol once a month or less, and 16% drink no more than once a week.
“In wine-growing countries, people are very patriotic about their own products, but in Ukraine, for some reason, sommeliers would rather recommend a foreign product than Ukrainian ones, even though we have quite high-quality craft wines. Therefore, it is necessary to change the worldview and popularize our own production so that the word Ukrainian is synonymous with quality,” said Oleksandr Poznyi, director of Active Group.
In turn, Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, emphasized the importance of Ukrainian wine in new markets.
“Increasing export volumes is also a good information occasion that will make Ukrainian wine more popular among our consumers. This can be achieved through obtaining international certificates confirming the high quality of Ukrainian wine, as well as through cooperation with well-known winemakers from other countries to improve the skills of Ukrainian winemakers. An example of such cooperation is the assistance to Ukrainian winemaking from the world-famous representative of this industry, Ricardo Fernandez Nunez, owner of the international wine group Vinos de la Luz,” said Urakin.
Volodymyr Pechko, Chairman of the Association of Gardeners, Winegrowers and Winemakers of Ukraine (UKRSADVINPROM), noted that the creation and presentation of new unique varieties and improvement of production technologies could be important factors that will improve the image of Ukrainian craft wine among consumers.
“Ukrainian wineries are increasingly implementing modern wine production technologies. This can be a good reason to hold public events and popularize this product. In particular, UkrSadVinProm has stepped up the use of the latest technologies in the field of planting, processing, cleaning, storage and transportation of wine and wine materials to ensure that Ukrainian fruits and berries meet international quality standards,” said Pechko.
The survey was conducted in July 2023 among Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older by self-administered questionnaires in the SunFlowerSociology panel.
About 1 thousand respondents – citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older – took part in the survey, which was conducted online in the SunFlower Sociology panel. The survey program was developed jointly by Experts Club and Active group.
