Ukrainian industry is one of the sectors of the economy most affected by the war. Since February 24, many large enterprises, primarily in the east and south of the country, have lost their production capacities, and the staff was forced to evacuate. At the same time, individual production facilities were transferred to the western regions, where they are being restored on the basis of more modern industrial facilities, such as industrial parks that appeared shortly before the war.
The Open4business portal spoke about the future of Ukrainian industry and the prospects for the restoration of production with Igor Stakovychenko, an expert in the field of economics.
According to the expert, the production of goods with high added value should become a priority for the development of the economy for decades to come.
“Before the aggression, our industry worked mainly according to standards that were not particularly modernized in 30 years of independence. This is the so-called canonical model, when you have raw materials, workshops, shipping, logistics, and so on. And there must also be stable consumers who will always buy products. Many plants with such a system failed the market test and closed down. Mostly giants remained, who more or less adapted. After the war, it will definitely not be possible to rebuild production in the same form, a fundamentally new model is needed, ”Igor Stakovichenko is sure.
The expert noted that in the modern world, the modernization of production involves the introduction of new management methods, as well as the creation of more adaptive sites, such as industrial zones or parks.
“If you have a workshop for the production of one specific part, which is itself part of a complex and long chain for creating the final product, then the situation above is rather precarious in modern conditions since you depend on many factors: suppliers, market situation, current conjuncture. If you have, for example, a 3D printer that can produce any shape to order for a specific client, then the situation is more stable for you, since you can quickly reorient yourself when the market changes. In the modern world, the industry is striving for greater universalization,” explained Igor Stakovichenko.
According to him, the restoration of the industry should begin now and be based, firstly, on the creation of industrial parks in safe regions, and secondly, on the modernization of existing industries for new models. As an example, Stakovichenko cites the development of this concept in Poland or the Czech Republic, where industrial zones already provide up to 50% of GDP.
“The government is now acting in the right direction, providing tax incentives to such industrial zones, this will lay the foundation for the rapid restoration of the country’s industrial potential in the post-war period,” Stakovichenko summed up.
ECONOMY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, INDUSTRY, MARKETS, PRODUCTION, STAKOVICHENKO
Yesterday, the Cabinet of Ministers included the pharmaceutical industry in the list of priority sectors of the economy, thereby strengthening state support in this area. Since the beginning of the war, the main pharmaceutical companies in Ukraine have generally maintained their production capacities, while several enterprises suffered as a result of Russian strikes, in particular, in March, the warehouses of the Farmak pharmaceutical plant burned down in Makarov, Kyiv region. The damage then, according to the enterprise, amounted to about 1.5 billion hryvnia.
How important is state support for pharmaceutical manufacturers now, and will the industry be able to provide Ukrainians with medicines in full? Igor Stakovichenko, an expert in the field of economics, answered these and other questions for the Open4business portal.
In his opinion, now the production of medicines should be equated by the state with the provision of the army, since in a warring state medicine is one of the foundations of a stable situation at the front and in the rear.
“It is hard to imagine that the army will be able to fight effectively if it is not provided with high-level medical support. At the same time, the production of its own medications is strategically important for the state. Supplies from Western partners are good, but having your own working pharmaceutical industry in such a difficult time is much better And this is understood in the government,” Igor Stakovichenko believes.
According to the expert, pharmaceutical production in Ukraine today is able to provide both the army and the population with a significant part of the necessary medicines. Igor Stakovichenko believes that the government’s timely decisions taken since the beginning of the war made it possible to quickly adapt the industry to new conditions.
“In particular, back in the spring, amendments were adopted to the law “On Medicines”, limiting the export of certain vital drugs. In addition, they significantly simplified the registration of pharmaceuticals during the war, creating an emergency procedure. This was done literally on the third day. In general, the government’s decision on The inclusion of pharmaceutical production in the list of priority industries is a continuation of the policy of supporting the industry, which has been outlined since the beginning of the war. Such support should remain at the level of the main state priorities,” stressed Igor Stakovichenko.
ECONOMY, MARKETS, MEDICINE, PHARMA, STAKOVICHENKO, ИГОРЬ_СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
The sharp decline in the value of cryptocurrencies this year put pressure on the shares of companies working in the field of digital currency mining, writes The Wall Street Journal.
Shares of American miners Riot Blockchain Inc. and TeraWulf Inc. Since the beginning of the year, prices have fallen by 78% and 89%, respectively, while the price of Canadian Hut 8 Mining Corp. and Bitfarms Ltd collapsed by 79% and 71%, respectively.
The price of bitcoin has fallen by about 70% from its November highs to $20,000. As a result, North American mining companies have earned less than $20 million per day in the last week, according to Glassnode. In October last year, the average daily revenue was about $72 million.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that banks are less and less willing to do business with representatives of the cryptocurrency sector, which negatively affects their ability to pay for the purchase of new equipment.
According to Arcane Research analyst Yaran Mellerud, companies have to sell almost all the mined cryptocurrency in order to purchase powerful new computers and chips. According to his estimates, in January-April 2022, publicly traded miners sold about 30% of all bitcoins they mined, and in May the figure exceeded 100% – that is, companies had to sell digital assets from their reserves.
“If they have to liquidate a significant portion of their reserves, this could put even more downward pressure on bitcoin prices,” Mellerud said.
According to Glassnode, if the price of bitcoin falls below $17,600, the miners will be unprofitable. On Saturday, the price of bitcoin at some point fell below $17,630 thousand. IDEG believes that the price at which bitcoin mining turns out to be breakeven is even higher – in the region of $28,000 thousand, and with this forecast, miners have been operating at a loss for several weeks.
The value of cryptocurrencies is falling along with other risky assets, including stocks, amid tightening monetary policy and increasing risks of a global recession, many analysts believe. As the world’s central banks are determined to keep raising rates, the fall in digital currencies could be protracted. So, the investment director of Absolute Strategy Research, Ian Hartnett, believes that bitcoin may well fall to $13,000.
A week earlier, market expert Igor Stakovichenko, responding to a request from Open4Business, said that in the current situation, the fall of the bitcoin market below 22,000 launched a new, even deeper “bearish phase” of the cycle, as it greatly shook the positions of long-term holders of the asset. The long-term holders, who had held their positions during the last drops, could not stand it and started dumping the cue ball at the lowest prices.
“This shook the entire structure, and both technical and macroeconomic indicators today indicate a possible fall in the main cryptocurrency to 16,000 or even lower,” the expert said.
However, according to Stakovichenko, it is too early to bury bitcoin, as “whales” (investors owning more than 10,000 BTC) continue to accumulate this digital currency, which may indicate the possibility of growth in the medium and long term.
In addition, the expert predicted possible stabilization and even some growth of the world’s main cryptocurrency.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES, GLASSNODE, MINERS, RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, SHARES, STAKOVICHENKO, TERAWULF, МЕЛЛЕРУД, ХАРТНЕТТ
The war caused and continues to cause significant damage to the economy of Ukraine. Today, perhaps, the construction and real estate markets suffered the most from the hostilities. Thus, the report of the National Bank of Ukraine “On Financial Stability” dated June 17, 2022 indicates that since the beginning of the war, the market has practically stopped, both in terms of construction and the sale of housing. At the same time, according to the NBU, the situation has begun to level off in recent weeks, and above all in the regions that are least affected by the destruction from the war.
The most favorable situation is in the western regions of the country, while the National Bank notes that a number of significant problems remain there. First of all, this is a market imbalance, when the prices declared by sellers are not supported by demand and are supported artificially.
As for construction, here, according to the regulator, the situation is more optimistic. Developers have restored work on almost 50% of the facilities in the country. The most positive dynamics is observed in the western regions, in the center and in the Odessa region.
As for the office real estate market, according to the NBU, it suffered to a greater extent from the massive transition of staff to remote work.
The Open4business portal asked financial expert Igor Stakovichenko to comment on the current situation. In his opinion, the severity of the crisis in the real estate market directly depends primarily on the intensity of hostilities in various regions of the country, as well as on the well-being of the population.
“We see that the demand for housing in the same Kharkiv and Dnipro collapsed almost equally. At the same time, housing construction in Kharkiv is at a standstill, while in Dnipro it is being restored. This is due to the risk assessment by developers, since the Kharkiv region is now under devastating shelling by the aggressor,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, most of the prices in both the primary and secondary markets are dictated by the overestimated expectations of developers who continue to hope to find a buyer for their goods despite changes in the economy and a decrease in the income of part of the population.
“Builders think in the old way, and form the price based on the cost and those mark-ups that were fair in the pre-war period. Buyers have become much more cautious and assess the risks, in particular, the presence of bomb shelters, evacuation routes, and so on. As for the secondary market, here prices are often drawn from the ceiling, hoping more for luck, ”said Stakovichenko.
According to the expert, market recovery can be expected after the end of the war, when the demand for housing will increase and investors’ fears will decrease.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERT, FINANCY, IGOR STAKOVICHENKO, MARKETS, REAL ESTATE MARKET, STAKOVICHENKO
Bitcoin is trading near the psychologically important mark of $20,000 on Monday after the fall of the cryptocurrency rate on Saturday to the lowest level in 18 months.
According to CoinDesk, the price of bitcoin at 11:35 Moscow time is $20444. On Saturday, it fell to $17,630, but on Sunday it bounced back above $20,000.
Last week, during which the Federal Reserve System (Fed) raised the base rate by 75 basis points (bp) at once, turned out to be quite volatile for the cryptocurrency market, and experts believe that the current week will also be difficult, writes Market Watch.
“We may be out of the bottom of the market if bitcoin can quickly rise above $20,000 and hold there on Tuesday-Wednesday,” said Winnie Langham, chief executive officer of streaming platform Waitroom. become a tough resistance level.”
Bitcoin has fallen 57% since the beginning of the year, and its fall from the November peak of $69,000 is about 70%.
While some analysts see the beginning of a new “crypto winter” that will eventually end, others believe that the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market could mean the end of the industry as a whole.
The ethereum exchange rate, which also fell sharply on Saturday, rose in price by 15% over the past 24 hours, to $1113.28.
Two days earlier, market expert Igor Stakovichenko, responding to a request from Open4Business, said that in the current situation, the fall of the bitcoin market below 22,000 launched a new, even deeper “bearish phase” of the cycle, as it greatly shook the position of long-term holders of the asset. The long-term holders, who had held their positions during the last drops, could not stand it and started dumping the cue ball at the lowest prices.
“This shook the entire structure, and both technical and macroeconomic indicators today indicate a possible fall in the main cryptocurrency to 16,000 or even lower,” the expert said.
However, according to Stakovichenko, it is too early to bury bitcoin, as “whales” (investors owning more than 10,000 BTC) continue to accumulate this digital currency, which may indicate the possibility of growth in the medium and long term. In addition, the expert predicted possible stabilization and even some growth of the world’s main cryptocurrency.
Yesterday, Bitcoin once again came close to the critical level of $20,000 per 1 BTC. Even the record-breaking increase in the interest rate of the Fed did not save the main cryptocurrency from falling. However, it could not save, since cryptocurrencies are a fairly young investment asset, which has not yet been affected by transition periods and changing phases of economic growth.
The crypto market continues to develop according to its own rules, remaining a speculative product, the high volatility of which attracts a large number of traders who are ready to take risks for the sake of quick earnings. Most often, such traders massively buy cryptocurrency during the growth phase and start to get rid of it just as massively when the market falls, which stimulates a further collapse.
But this time the situation is somewhat different. Many analysts are talking about the beginning of the “darkest time for crypto” in its entire history. The traditional opponents of bitcoin have also revived. Thus, the famous financier Warren Buffett recently stated:
“If I were now offered to buy bitcoins at $25, I would not take them. What should I do with them then? I would have to sell them back to you later. This is a dead end.”
And he added that he doesn’t know if bitcoin will rise or fall next year, in five or ten years, but he knows for sure that he does not produce anything.
The Open4business publication turned to Igor Stakovichenko, an expert in economics and finance, with a request to comment on the situation in the cryptocurrency market. According to the economist, the problem of the lack of a real resource and production base for digital assets has become especially acute in recent months. This is due to the fact that Russian aggression in Ukraine disrupted supply chains and led to higher prices for real sector products in the global economy.
“The fall in the capitalization of the largest companies and the crisis in the stock market naturally led to the collapse of the cryptocurrency market, as many investors considered this asset too risky,” the financier notes.
Stakovichenko stressed that in the current situation, the fall of the bitcoin market below 22,000 launched a new, even deeper “bearish phase” of the cycle, as it greatly shook the position of long-term holders of the asset. The long-term holders, who had held their positions during the last drops, could not stand it and started dumping the cue ball at the lowest prices.
“This shook the whole structure, and both technical and macroeconomic indicators today indicate a possible fall of the main cryptocurrency to 16,000 or even lower,” the expert said.
However, according to Stakovichenko, it is still too early to bury bitcoin, as “whales” (investors owning more than 10,000 BTC) still continue to accumulate this digital currency, which may indicate the possibility of growth in the medium and long term.
BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, CRYPTOCURRENCY_MARKET, EXPERT, FINANCE, STAKOVICHENKO, ИГОРЬ_СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
