Gazprom’s bid for gas transit through Ukraine has increased to the maximum for the last month (since January 15).
“The operator of Ukraine’s gas transmission system (OGTSU) said it had accepted a transit request from Gazprom for Wednesday in the amount of 35.8 million cubic meters. The figure on Tuesday was 30.8 million cubic meters. The capacity is claimed for only one of the two entry points into the country’s GTS, the Suja gas metering station. No application has been accepted for the corridor through the Sohranovka gas metering station.
The current level of gas reserves in Europe has fallen to 65.66 percent, 20 percentage points above the average for the same date in the last five years, according to the Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) association. During the Feb. 13 gas day, inventories were down 0.45 percentage points.
Warm weather in October, November and January as well as austerity measures have resulted in UGS reserve levels now at their highest ever recorded. This strengthens confidence of the authorities in the successful passing of the winter.
Europe’s LNG receiving terminals operated at 62 percent capacity in January, nearly the same in the first days of February. At the same time the level of LNG inventories in the tanks of receiving terminals is decreasing more and more. This suggests that the inflow of new LNG cargoes to the region is falling amid low prices and competition from Asia.
The day-ahead contract at the TTF hub in the Netherlands added just over a percent in the past 24 hours, closing at $592 per thousand cubic meters.
The “Asian premium” is stable. – gap between gas prices in Asia and the price of LNG supplies to Europe. March futures for JKM Platts (Japan Korea Marker, reflecting the spot market price for cargoes supplied to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan) traded at $639; futures for LNG supplied to North West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) traded at $582.
The state of U.S. UGS reserves is becoming increasingly important to the global market as the country is actively ramping up exports.
In the regular reporting week (ended Feb. 3), reserves fell by 6.1 bcm. For the first time since the beginning of the year, weekly withdrawals exceeded the average for the last five years.
The current reserve level is 49%, 5 percentage points above the five-year average, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).
February promises to be a cold month in the country, which will lead to an increase in energy spending for heating. On the other hand – America’s largest LNG plant, Freeport LNG, is still delaying its restart after an accident, leaving gas that was supposed to go to exports in the domestic market.
So far, the EIA has projected that storage inventories will fall by 60 billion cubic meters this winter (the average for the last five years). At the end of March, natural gas volumes in storage are projected to be 40 billion cubic meters. This is 8% below the five-year average.
The leaders of Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia have supported the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative announced by the president of Ukraine and announced further efforts to increase existing and create new transit corridors for the export of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products.
“Since the beginning of the war, 8.4 million tons of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine have been transited (through Romania) to consumers in the world. We expect transit exports from Ukraine to increase in the coming months,” Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca said in a video message at the international food security summit in Kiev on Saturday.
He noted that Romania has acted very strongly in support of Ukrainian grain exports through Romanian ports and will continue working to increase connectivity between the countries by land and rail, including the recent opening of a new border crossing.
Ciuche also stressed that Romania has and will not back down from supporting Ukraine and Moldova in the energy sphere. “We will not allow Russia to plunge the region into darkness,” he said.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said at the summit that Bulgaria has managed to transport about 200,000 tons of grain from Ukraine across the Danube in recent months, and the country intends to continue this transportation project.
“Unfortunately, the loss of power in Ukrainian ports due to Russian shelling has made this process difficult for Bulgarian vessels,” he said.
Radev also said Bulgaria is providing fuel to Ukraine so the country can support the agricultural and transportation sectors.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrea Plenkovic also supported work on new corridors for the supply of Ukrainian products as part of the EU’s Solidarity Routes project.
“Croatia is actively joining, and will attract other ports on the Adriatic and there are opportunities for corridors along the Danube River,” said the Croatian government head.
The three leaders welcomed the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for another 120 days, and the Bulgarian president urged the search for stable long-term solutions.
The Convention on the Joint Transit Procedure (CCTP) or the so-called “customs visa-free” for Ukraine came into force on Saturday: goods are already flowing into and out of the country under such a procedure, the Ministry of Finance reported.
“Today, October 1, Ukraine entered into force and business opened up the possibility of international movement of goods with 35 other participating countries under one transit document,” the press release says.
The Ministry of Finance clarified that the first country from which the cargo was sent for delivery to Ukraine under the joint transit procedure was Germany: Ukrainian customs officers already see the T1 transit declaration in the NCTS electronic transit system and are waiting for the truck to arrive.
In Ukraine, the first transit declaration for leaving the country was also issued: according to it, the cargo now follows through Poland to Germany.
Currently, the system is also awaiting the arrival of goods at the customs office of departure and other declarations, according to which the goods will be placed under the joint transit procedure and delivered to the customs offices of destination on the territory of the countries participating in the Convention, the report says.
The Ministry of Finance recalled that in accordance with the “customs visa-free” for the delivery of goods from one country to another, a single transit document is submitted: from the customs office of departure to the customs office of destination. This speeds up the passage of customs formalities at the border and reduces the associated costs for businesses. According to the forecast of the Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union of the European Commission (DG TAXUD), Ukraine can enter the top ten countries in terms of the number of transit declarations.
“Customs is responsible for controlling the goods. We in the EU are striving to spend less time for control at the border, and more inside the country. In Ukraine, so far, most goods travel without checking inside the country – all control work takes place directly at the border. Therefore, queues form at the border. NCTS solves most of this problem: it is possible to submit a declaration to the system in advance, after checking inside the country, to put the necessary seals that are recognized in the EU. Then at the border, you only need time to read the barcode number, as it is done in a supermarket,” summed up the international expert of the Program for Public Financial Management in Ukraine (EU4PFM) Vytenis Alishauskas.
Ališauskas, CUSTOMS, customs visa-free, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, TRANSIT
The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, or GTSOU, has accepted a booking from Gazprom today to transport 42.4 million cubic meters of gas through the country against 42.4 mcm the previous gas day, data from GTSOU show.
Capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
GTSOU has declared a force majeure about accepting gas for transit through Sokhranivka, claiming that it cannot control the Novopskov compressor station. Ukraine has also said that if gas continued to be fed from Russia to the Sokhranivka station, amounts would be reduced accordingly at the exit points from Ukraine’s gas transport system. The route through Sokhranivka had provided transit of more than 30 mcm of gas per day.
Gazprom believes there are no grounds for the force majeure or obstacles to continuing operations as before.
Electricity generated from wind power in Europe has dropped nearly 50% in the past two days, and the forecast for Thursday and Friday calls for practically calm weather, which requires utilizing other sources of energy.
Europe’s current temperatures are reaching all-time lows for the month of September, and could be the coldest for the past nine years at more than two degrees below last year’s figure. The forecast in Europe until the end of the month is light winds or calm weather.
Another cold spell has begun in Europe, and it should last at least a couple of days.
Electricity generated from wind power has dropped for the second consecutive day. Wind turbines generated 22.8% of the European Union’s energy balance on Monday, falling to 13.6% on Wednesday. Meantime, the figure is only 6.8% in Germany and 3.3% in the Netherlands, according to data from the WindEurope association. The average for September 2021 was 9.6%.
Spot prices for gas in Europe have risen sharply since Gazprom announced that Naftogaz Ukraine’s latest lawsuit could disrupt transit through Ukraine, adjusting to $2,005 per 1,000 cubic meters for the TTF day-ahead contract.
Prices in Asia are rising on the back of prices in Europe. The most expensive January futures on the JKM Platts index, which reflects spot market prices for gas delivered to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan, are $1,962 per 1,000 cubic meters.
The Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Europe has been unable to restart as planned after maintenance, as oil leaks were found in Siemens turbines and this problem can only be fixed with factory repairs, Gazprom said. The Siemens turbines can only be repaired at a plant in Montreal, but Canada has imposed sanctions against the Russian gas giant.
Moreover, there were reports on Monday of a drop in gas pressure in two strings of Nord Stream 1 and in one string of Nord Stream 2 near the Danish island of Bornholm.
European liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals are operating at an average of 59% of capacity in September compared to 59% in August, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicate, and gas has been received from the EemsEnergy LNG floating receiving regasification terminal since September 16 in the Netherlands.
Europe is continuing to inject gas into underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, with the average level of reserves reaching the targeted 80% of capacity at the end of August. After reaching the target level, there has been some reduction in the injection rate.
Inventories in UGS facilities are currently at 88.17%, up just 0.2 percentage points from the last reporting date, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
Gas inventories in UGS facilities have currently exceeded 80% in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain.
Meanwhile, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Latvia are lagging, with Austria showing a clear trend toward reaching the target level of reserves by October 1, and Bulgaria and Hungary have also intensified injection, though could be several days late to the prized line.
The gas reserves at the Incukalns UGS facility in Latvia are the lowest in the EU at around 53%. Pumping is 50% below the European average despite this UGS facility being responsible for reserve gas supplies to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Finland.
Steady gas exports in the United States are reducing the amount of resources for injection into storage, which is supporting prices on the domestic market.
The current inventory level is around 71%, which is substantially below the reserves at UGS facilities in Europe, with the EU having topped this level a month-and-a-half ago, and even more so in Russia, which has over 90%.
Current reserves in the country’s UGS facilities are only 5% above the lowest figure in the past five years, and the figure fell in the summer injection season, though it has risen slightly in the past week, data from the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration show. The lag behind the norm for the past five years is 10%.
The rate of injection increased during the last reporting week, with 2.9 billion cubic meters accumulated compared to 2.2 bcm on average over the previous reporting weeks. The end of using air conditioning and no heating demand thus far allow the industry to allocate more gas to storage.
The rate of injection into U.S. UGS facilities has improved somewhat after the suspension of exports through the Freeport LNG terminal owing to an accident.
Additionally, Cove Point terminal, with a capacity of 5.25 million tonnes per year, will stop for scheduled maintenance in September-October, with the volumes exported through the terminal also remaining on the domestic market.
A Ukrainian transport company reacted positively to the proposal of Slovnaft and MOL to pay transit fees for transporting oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, the Slovak company said.
“Slovnaft has already made a payment to the company’s account. Based on this, Slovnaft expects the resumption of oil supplies in the coming days. The Russian side also agreed with this decision,” the company stressed.
According to Bloomberg, the Hungarian MOL also transferred the transit payment and expects to resume deliveries in the coming days.
Earlier, Transneft reported that on August 4, Ukrtransnafta stopped the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine due to a failure to pay the transit fee. It was noted that the funds sent on July 22 for transit in August were returned to the account of Transneft on July 28 in connection with the entry into force of EU Regulation 2022/1269. Through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline passing through the territory of Ukraine, oil supplies are carried out in the direction of the refineries of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic on the basis of a long-term agreement between PJSC Transneft and JSC Ukrtransnafta for the provision of oil transportation services on the terms of 100% prepayment.
The Hungarian MOL and the Slovak Slovnaft (also part of the MOL group) initiated discussions with the Ukrainian and Russian sides on the possibility of paying a transit fee to MOL or Slovnaft, which would allow oil supplies to be restored.
“The interruption of supplies occurred after technical problems at the bank level due to the payment of transit fees from the Russian side. However, production at the Bratislava refinery is running smoothly, and deliveries to the market are smooth. During this period, the Bratislava refinery is in close cooperation with the national oil transporter Transpetrol, as well as in cooperation with the Slovak Ministry of Economy, uses all the reserves available in the system for processing,” Slovnaft said.
So far, there have been no reports of a solution to the problem of transit to the Czech Republic.
Last year, 12 million tons of Russian oil was transported through Druzhba through Ukraine, including 3.4 million tons to the Czech Republic, 5.2 million tons to Slovakia, and 3.4 million tons to Hungary.
The application for the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine remains at the level of the previous days and months.
Europe has been without Nord Stream gas for the second day.
The energy deficit was aggravated by a two-fold drop in electricity production due to wind.
TRANSIT THROUGH UKRAINE
“Operator GTS Ukrainy” accepted from “Gazprom” an application for gas transit for Tuesday in the amount of 41.2 million cubic meters. m, evidenced by OGTSU data. The indicator on Monday was 41.1 million cubic meters. m. Powers are declared only at one of the two points of entry into the Ukrainian GTS – the Suzha gas measuring station. The application was not accepted for the corridor through the Sokhranovka GIS.
OGTSU announced a force majeure for the acceptance of gas for transit through the GIS station “Sochranovka”, referring to the fact that it cannot carry out operational and technological control over the compressor station “Novopskov”.
Kyiv offered to transfer transit volumes from “Sochranovka” to GIS “Suja”, but “Gazprom” stated that this was technologically impossible.
At the same time, Ukraine insists that payment should still be made on the basis of the estimated volume of transportation of the long-term contract of 109 million cubic meters. m per day according to the “download or pay” rule. “Naftogaz” claims that it is now not receiving payment for transit and is preparing to apply to arbitration.
EUROPEAN MARKET
At the beginning of the new week, the production of electricity due to wind in Europe fell to 7.6% of the energy balance in the EU, while the average indicator for the past week was 15%, according to data from the WindEurope association.
Europe continues to pump gas into underground storage facilities. At the moment, the reserves are about 62.08%, according to data from the Gas Infrastructure Europe association. The increase over the last day was 0.46 percentage points. The current level of reserves in the UGC of Europe lags behind the five-year average by 1.24 percentage points. Since this year, the EU has introduced strict regulation of the use of underground storage facilities. By the beginning of the selection season in 2022, the reserves should be at least 80% of the capacity of the UHP, and 90% thereafter.
European terminals for receiving LNG in July are operating at an average capacity of 63% of their capacity, which is equal to the June indicator. For now, the region remains a premium market for LNG, as prices in Asia are slightly lower than European hubs.
Spot prices for gas in Europe against the background of the Nord Stream repair shutdown are at the level of $1,690 per thousand cubic meters. In Asia, prices are noticeably lower – the August futures on the JKM Platts index (Japan Korea Marker – reflects the spot market value of cargo delivered to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan) is trading at $1,390.
