The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 74.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service reports.
According to the report, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer may make adjustments.
“The potential decline in the harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics) and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country,” the UGA explained and added that under such conditions, exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year will amount to 43.5 million tons.
According to the forecast of the UGA, in the ending season, exports of grains and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds.
The UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks will be about 2.4 mln tonnes.
According to the UGA, barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.6 mln tonnes (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at around 2 mln tonnes (this season barley exports are forecasted at 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage and dry conditions in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year’s 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 20.5 mln tons (in the current season, exports are expected to reach 26 mln tons).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 to reach 13.7 mln tons (in 2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes in the current season), while sunflower processing for vegetable oil could reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes. In the current season, processing will reach 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 mln tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 mln tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 mln tonnes).
As for soybeans, this is the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. The soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 mln tons in 2024 (4.9 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tons (in the current season it is expected to reach 3.3 mln tons).
As reported, the UGA estimated the harvest in 2023 at 82.8 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the August forecast, to 67.5 million tonnes from 64.5 million tonnes, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
This change in forecasts is due to an increase in the area where the crop will be harvested, as well as an improvement in the average yield from 3.57 tonnes/ha to 3.64 tonnes/ha.
According to it, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 47.5 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 31% less – 32.8 million tonnes), provided that marine grain corridors are operational until the end of the marketing year. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of 2022/2023 MY amounted to 26 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are estimated at 19.2 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 37% more – 30.5 million tonnes).
“In general, export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate until the end of the season. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19.3 million tonnes (1.5% more compared to the August forecast); 24 million tonnes of corn (forecast kept); 5.6 million tonnes of barley (3.7% more); 10 million tonnes of sunflower (11% more); 3.6 million tonnes of soybeans (1.6 times more); and 3.15 million tonnes of rapeseed (5% more).
In the November forecast, the association raised its export forecasts compared to August ones – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected at the level of 13 million tonnes (33% more), corn – 20 million tonnes (a 2-fold increase), barley – 2 million tonnes (forecast is kept), sunflower – 6 million tonnes (forecast is kept), soybean – 3.5 million tonnes (an increase of 2 times), and rapeseed – 2.8 million tonnes (forecast is kept).
“We estimate the preliminary forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds for the next 2023 at the level of 53.2 million tonnes, and export at the level of 39.7 million tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and subsequently harvest crops,” the UGA said in the statement.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has asked the government to organize a grain corridor for transporting grain to the Danube river ports through the border crossing near the village of Palanca (Moldova), the road to which was not previously used for agricultural exports.
The UGA proposed the corresponding route as an alternative to the railway bridge across the Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky estuary, which was damaged due to repeated shelling by Russians and now does not function, according to the association’s website.
The UGA recalled that before the Russian invasion, Ukraine exported 95-98% of agricultural products through seaports, in natural terms – 5-6 million tonnes per month. However, after the blockade of the Black Sea seaports, Ukraine can transport no more than 1.5 million tonnes per month by alternative routes.
“Currently, most of the grain exports are carried out through the Ukrainian ports of the Danube. Unfortunately, one of the ways to access the Danube ports is the bridge over the Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky estuary, which is damaged, and now the movement of rail cars and road transport is very difficult. An alternative way to access the Danube ports is the road through the village of Palanca (Moldova),” the UGA points out.
Meanwhile, the road to Palanca was not previously used for the transport of commercial goods, so its capacity is significantly limited.
Given the above and the current state of affairs in Ukraine, the UGA asks the government to create a “green corridor” for the transportation of grain cargo for export through the Danube ports, in particular in the area near the village of Palanca.
The Ukrainian Grain Association is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) estimates the export volumes of grains (wheat, corn and barley) by Ukraine in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) at 57.5 million tonnes, which is 28.8% higher than the results of 2020/2021 MY, the press service of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) told Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
“According to our preliminary estimates, more optimistic than the ministry’s, the export of grains (wheat, corn and barley) this season may reach 57.5 million tonnes with a harvest of 74.5 million tonnes,” the press service of the UGA organization clarified, commenting on the forecast of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, according to which in 2021/2022MY the export of these crops can reach 56 million tonnes with a harvest of 75.8 million tonnes.
The Association also provided for comparison the data of the International Grains Council (IGC), in the latest report of which the export of grain from Ukraine in the current MY is projected at 55.4 million tonnes with a harvest of 76.2 million tonnes.
The press service of the organization of grain traders clarified that the total export of grain crops together with oilseeds in 2021/2022 MY may exceed 62 million tonnes with a gross harvest of more than 100 million tonnes.
UGA also commented on the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding for 2021/2022 MY between the participants of the grain market and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on July 5. According to its press service, an annex to the memorandum, which specifies the maximum export volumes of agricultural products, will be signed after the volumes of the harvested crop become known.
“The relevant ministry and the participants of the grain market traditionally sign a Memorandum with the beginning of a new grain season. The maximum export volumes are agreed upon later, when the indicators of the harvested crop of a particular crop are already known,” the press service of UGA noted.
Exports ofgrains and oilseeds in the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, September-August) will amount to 46.8 million tonnes, which is a quarter less than in the record 2019/2020 MY.
According to the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), citing data from grain traders, the maximum export volume of these crops in the current season will not exceed the values specified in the annexes to the memorandum between the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture and market participants.
The UGA clarified that the rate of grain export in the current MY is significantly lower than last year’s indicators, which is due to the conjuncture of world markets.
The association expects that wheat exports in the current season will not exceed 16 million tonnes, which is significantly lower than the volume specified in the appendix to the memorandum of 17.5 million tonnes. Corn exports in the current season will not exceed 22 million tonnes, which is also below the limit set in the annex to the memorandum – 24 million tonnes.
As reported, Ukraine exported 37.71 million tonnes ofgrains and legumes since the beginning of 2020/2021 MY, which is 23.6% less than on the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 14.78 million tonnes of wheat, 18.19 million tonnes of corn, 4.12 million tonnes of barley and 102,200 tonnes of flour have been exported.
