The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) opposes another increase in railroad tariffs for grain transportation, as it will further hit farmers who have already suffered $80 billion in losses due to Russia’s armed aggression, the association said in a statement.
The UGA recalled that in 2021-2022, Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) significantly increased tariffs for grain transportation, which led to a 96% increase in the cost of grain transportation. Subsequently, with the outbreak of war, the company resorted to raising tariffs due to a drop in transportation volumes.
“Indeed, during the blockade of Ukrainian seaports by Russia, grain transportation in their direction dropped significantly. However, with the opening of the Ukrainian sea corridor, grain exports from the country’s ports have almost recovered to pre-war levels, and, accordingly, the volume of grain transportation by rail to ports has increased,” the business association noted.
The UGA argues that the 11% increase in grain transportation tariffs proposed by UZ will hit Ukrainian farmers hard, who are suffering losses due to the war, lower global grain prices and lower crop yields this year. This move will make the price of grain uncompetitive on the global market, as exporters will be forced to reduce their purchase prices due to the rising cost of logistics, and as a result, farmers will suffer even greater losses.
At a time when the agricultural sector is one of the drivers of the Ukrainian economy, ensuring food and economic security for a country at war and in dire need of tax revenues, its losses will lead to a drop in production and exports. As a result, tax revenues to the state budget will decrease, and the country will face a shortage of funds to finance the Armed Forces and purchase weapons, the association states.
At the same time, the UGA welcomes UZ’s proposal to unify freight transportation, as the transportation of a ton of cargo costs the same, regardless of whether it is grain or coal. For many years, the Association has been pushing for the unification of railroad transportation tariffs.
According to the UGA, with the opening of the Ukrainian sea corridor, Ukrzaliznytsia has significantly expanded its freight transportation base and increased its own revenues. Therefore, the best way to avoid unprofitability is for the company to optimize costs and improve the efficiency of production processes.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast, to 71.8 million tons, the association’s press service reports.
“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer make adjustments. Another decrease in the harvest forecast for the new season was caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds,” the report says.
According to experts, under such conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will amount to 41 mln tons, which is 2.5 mln tons less than the previous forecast. Last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grains and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 mln tons of grains and oilseeds. Thus, the drop in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 mln tons (22 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 mln tonnes.
The UGA pointed out that the consumption of wheat in Ukraine has decreased due to the war and significant outflow of population abroad. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, wheat consumption decreased from 8 mln tons to just over 6 mln tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.95 mln tonnes, which is 350 thsd tonnes more than the previous estimate (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to reach about 2 mln tonnes (last year barley exports amounted to almost 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry period in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year’s harvest of 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 18.5 mln tons (last season, exports amounted to 29.3 mln tons, in particular due to carry-over corn stocks).
The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at 12.8 mln tons, which is 0.9 mln tons lower than the previous estimate (2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes, while sunflower crushing for vegetable oil could reach 12.5 mln tonnes. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, the UGA expects the rapeseed harvest to reach 4.3 mln tonnes (4.5 mln tonnes in 2023), while the exports in 2024/2025 MY will be 3.4 mln tonnes (3.7 mln tonnes in the current season).
As for soybeans, despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under the crop, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to get a bigger harvest due to lower yields, experts believe. According to their estimates, the soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at 4.8 mln tonnes, which is 0.7 mln tonnes less than the previous estimate (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.5 mln tonnes (last season – almost 3 mln tonnes).
As reported, in 2023, the UGA estimated the harvest at 82.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
Ukraine exported 57.5 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2023-2024 marketing year, which ended on June 30, 2024, out of the harvest of 82.8 mln tonnes, while the carry-over stocks amounted to about 7 mln tonnes, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
“Last season, the most important factor for the export of Ukrainian grain was the opening of the Ukrainian Humanitarian Corridor, which allowed exports by sea from the deep-water ports of Odesa region. The second most important factor was the introduction by Ukraine, together with international partners, of a working mechanism for insuring ships entering Ukrainian ports, which reduced the costs of exporters and, accordingly, Ukrainian agricultural producers for export logistics,” the association noted.
According to the UGA analysts, referring to the information of the State Customs Service, in monetary terms, the exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY amounted to $10.76 bln, and exports including products from them, including sunflower oil and other oils, cake and meal – $17.86 bln.
Wheat exports amounted to 18.4 million tons worth $3 billion, with production of about 22 million tons. The top 3 importing countries of Ukrainian wheat were Spain, which purchased 5.899 mln tons, Egypt – 1.721 mln tons, and Indonesia – 1.515 mln tons.
Ukraine exported almost 2.5 mln tons of barley for $376 mln, against the production of 5.8 mln tons. The most active buyers were China – 702 thousand tons, Indonesia – 460 thousand tons, and Cyprus – 221 thousand tons.
Last season, Ukraine exported 29.3 mln tons of corn worth $4.7 bln, compared to last year’s production of 29.6 mln tons. Its main buyers were Spain – 6.011 million tons, China – 4.832 million tons, and Egypt – 3.874 million tons.
Almost 3 mln tons of soybeans were sold to other countries for $1.1 bln, with a harvest of 4.9 mln tons. The top 3 buyers were Egypt – 956 thsd tonnes, Turkey – 674 thsd tonnes, and Germany – 235 thsd tonnes.
Ukraine exported 3.7 mln tons of rapeseed worth $1.4 bln, compared to last year’s production of 4.5 mln tons. The most active buyers were Germany – 1.226 mln tons, Romania – 609 thsd tonnes, and the Netherlands – 420 thsd tonnes.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast – to 74.6 million tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service reports.
According to the report, the current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer may make adjustments.
“The potential decline in the harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas (mainly under grain crops due to unfavorable price conditions on the world market and relatively expensive export logistics) and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the east and south of the country,” the UGA explained and added that under such conditions, exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year will amount to 43.5 million tons.
According to the forecast of the UGA, in the ending season, exports of grains and oilseeds may reach 53.2 million tons of grains and oilseeds.
The UGA forecasts the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.1 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than the previous estimate (22 million tons in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks will be about 2.4 mln tonnes.
According to the UGA, barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.6 mln tonnes (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY can be expected at around 2 mln tonnes (this season barley exports are forecasted at 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to a potential reduction in corn acreage and dry conditions in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest forecast at 25.5 million tons, which is 800 thousand tons less than the previous estimate and 4.1 million tons less than last year’s 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 20.5 mln tons (in the current season, exports are expected to reach 26 mln tons).
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2024 to reach 13.7 mln tons (in 2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes in the current season), while sunflower processing for vegetable oil could reach almost 13.6 mln tonnes. In the current season, processing will reach 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, rapeseed harvest can be expected at 4.3 mln tonnes (in 2023 – 4.5 mln tonnes), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes (in the current season – 3.7 mln tonnes).
As for soybeans, this is the only crop under which farmers can increase the area due to its profitability this year. The soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 mln tons in 2024 (4.9 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 4 mln tons (in the current season it is expected to reach 3.3 mln tons).
As reported, the UGA estimated the harvest in 2023 at 82.8 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the August forecast, to 67.5 million tonnes from 64.5 million tonnes, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
This change in forecasts is due to an increase in the area where the crop will be harvested, as well as an improvement in the average yield from 3.57 tonnes/ha to 3.64 tonnes/ha.
According to it, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 47.5 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 31% less – 32.8 million tonnes), provided that marine grain corridors are operational until the end of the marketing year. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of 2022/2023 MY amounted to 26 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are estimated at 19.2 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 37% more – 30.5 million tonnes).
“In general, export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate until the end of the season. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19.3 million tonnes (1.5% more compared to the August forecast); 24 million tonnes of corn (forecast kept); 5.6 million tonnes of barley (3.7% more); 10 million tonnes of sunflower (11% more); 3.6 million tonnes of soybeans (1.6 times more); and 3.15 million tonnes of rapeseed (5% more).
In the November forecast, the association raised its export forecasts compared to August ones – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected at the level of 13 million tonnes (33% more), corn – 20 million tonnes (a 2-fold increase), barley – 2 million tonnes (forecast is kept), sunflower – 6 million tonnes (forecast is kept), soybean – 3.5 million tonnes (an increase of 2 times), and rapeseed – 2.8 million tonnes (forecast is kept).
“We estimate the preliminary forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds for the next 2023 at the level of 53.2 million tonnes, and export at the level of 39.7 million tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and subsequently harvest crops,” the UGA said in the statement.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
