Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk is on an official visit to Turkey on May 13-15.
According to the press service of the Ukrainian parliament’s apparatus, Stefanchuk will hold a number of bilateral meetings and negotiations in Ankara, including with the chairman of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Numan Kurtulmuş.
During the meetings will touch upon the topics of realization of the Formula of Peace of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular, the involvement of Turkey in the reconstruction process.
“The purpose of the visit is to deepen strategic cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey, to expand interparliamentary cooperation, as well as to overcome the negative consequences of Russian aggression, which threatens stability and development in the Black Sea region”, – stated in the message of the press service.
Land plots are being bought even more than in 2021
Ukrainians began to buy and sell land and real estate more actively in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Unified Register of Notarial Forms of the Ministry of Justice. Over 185,000 land alienation agreements were registered during this period. This is 36.4% more than before the full-scale invasion. And alienations of other real estate increased by 55% – but this is still less than in 2021.
In 2024, Ukrainians are more likely to sell or transfer land to other ownership. In particular, 185 thousand land alienation agreements were drawn up by notaries in the first quarter of 2024. This is 56% more than in the same period last year: then notaries certified almost 119 thousand such forms.
The number of such agreements is already a third higher than before the start of the full-scale war. Back then, in 2021, more than 136 thousand land alienation agreements were formalized.
At the same time, the number of alienations of real estate other than land has increased by one and a half times this year. Thus, in the first quarter of this year, notaries certified more than 181 thousand such forms. For comparison, in the same period last year, there were almost 117 thousand such transactions.
However, this is still 16% less than before the full-scale campaign began: just over 216 thousand forms were used for land alienation.
It should be noted that one notarial act does not always require only one notarial form. Accordingly, the number of actions is approximate and is compared to previous years.
It should be reminded that the total number of notarial forms used last year increased by 2.6 million) , but still remains lower than before the outbreak of full-scale war.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has agreed with the proposal of the Ministry of Energy to establish a state-owned enterprise (SOE) Marine Oil Terminal Pivdenny and to include it under the management of the said ministry. This is stated in the Cabinet’s order No. 381-r dated April 30, 2024, “On approval of the creation of SOE Marine Oil Terminal Pivdenny,” published on the government portal.
“The Ministry of Energy, together with NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy, shall take measures to transfer the objects of the oil distribution and gas distribution system of the marine oil terminal Pivdenny, which are state property and are in the possession of NJSC Ukrtransnafta, to SOE Marine Oil Terminal Pivdenny,” the document says.
A total of 100% of the shares of Ukrtransnafta belong to NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy.
CRH Group, the largest building materials manufacturer in North America and Europe, has invested $80 million in Ukraine over the course of the full-scale invasion. Guillaume Cavalier, President of CRH in Central and Eastern Europe, told Forbes Ukraine that the group’s total investments in Ukraine over 25 years of work amount to more than $500 million. According to him, in the context of rebuilding infrastructure in Ukraine, it is important to use cement produced locally, which will provide jobs and higher revenues to the state budget.
Cavalier emphasized that for the potential growth of the Ukrainian cement market after accession to the EU, it is important to invest in the expansion of production facilities now. He reminded that the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) is currently considering CRH’s application to acquire assets of Italian Buzzi in Ukraine – cement plants Volyn-cement (Zdolbunov, Rivne region) and YuGcement (Olshanskoe, Mykolayiv region).
As reported, on January 23, AMCU reported about the beginning of consideration of the case on concerted actions in the form of fulfillment of provisions on refraining from competition, enshrined in the concentration agreement between the Irish group CRH and Dyckerhoff GmbH, which own assets in Ukraine.
In June 2023, Italian cement producer Buzzi, listed by the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption as an international sponsor of war, through its subsidiary Dyckerhoff GmbH, reached an agreement to sell part of its business in Eastern Europe to Irish group CRH, including Ukrainian assets in the form of two cement plants. The transaction is expected to close in 2024.
Later, in September 2023, the AMCU returned CRH’s application for concentration without consideration due to non-compliance with the requirements, and also noted that the group occupies about one-third of the Ukrainian cement market. In October of the same year, the agency reopened the case.
CRH has been operating in Ukraine since 1999. Since November 2021, its cement enterprises in Ukraine have been operating under the Cemark brand: Podolsk Cement JSC (Khmelnytskyi oblast), Cement LLC (Odessa) and Mykolaivcement PJSC (Lviv oblast).
A separate business area of CRH in Ukraine is production concrete and reinforced concrete products. PoliBeton Energo’s Bila Tserkva Reinforced Concrete Plant is a specialized enterprise that produces supports for power transmission lines. PoliBeton’s concrete unit in the north of Odessa joined CRH in 2020.
CRH is a leading manufacturer of construction materials in the world. The company employs about 71,000 people at its 3,200 plants in 28 countries. It is the largest producer of building materials in North America and Europe. The company is also present in Asia. American depositary shares of CRH are listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2024 by the same period last year at 3.1%, while in January it forecast it at 7.1%.
“Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, according to NBU estimates, was weaker than expected, primarily due to restrained budget expenditures amid uncertainty about the receipt of external financing. An additional factor was the blockade of the western border, which restrained the activity of certain types of activities,” the National Bank explained in the Inflation Report published on its website.
At the same time, as the NBU pointed out, stable operation of the sea corridor, favorable weather and increased domestic demand supported economic growth. The central bank added that fiscal policy remained accommodative and, together with the effect of a significant increase in fiscal spending at the end of 2023, significantly fueled aggregate demand.
Earlier, in late April, the Economy Ministry estimated Ukraine’s GDP growth at 4.5% in the first quarter of this year.
As the National Bank notes, moderate GDP growth rates will remain until the end of 2024. “The main factors of growth will remain the preservation of soft fiscal policy, revitalization of external demand, as well as further adjustment of business and population to the conditions of significant security threats. However, the pace of economic growth will slow given the impact of the war and the depletion of growth momentum from the low base of 2022,” the NBI pointed out.
It added that the recovery will also be constrained by the impact of the destruction of energy infrastructure.
According to the updated forecasts, GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in the second quarter (the NBU expected it at 4.8% in January) before slowing to 1.3% (1.7%) in the third quarter and accelerating again to 4.1% (2.0%) in the fourth quarter.
Overall, for 2024, the NBU worsened its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy to 3% from 3.6% in its January report, and for 2025 to 5.3% from 5.8%.
“The negative contribution of revised estimates of the e/e deficit to the change in real GDP in 2024 is estimated at 0.6 percentage points (pp), and 0.5 pp in 2025. Instead, the impact on GDP of a smaller grain harvest in 2024 will be insignificant due to the reorientation of agricultural producers to more marginal crops, particularly oilseeds,” the central bank said.
According to the regulator, the balance of risks of the baseline forecast is shifted towards deterioration of Ukraine’s economic growth rates and increased price pressure.
The National Bank in the updated Inflation Report increased the number of key risks of the forecast (with a strong impact and probability of 25-50%) to three: to the risk of a longer period and intensity of the war added the risk of large budgetary needs (a quarter earlier the NBU estimated its probability at 15-25%) and large damage to energy and port infrastructure (a quarter earlier the impact of this risk the central bank considered moderate).
At the same time, the probability of the risk of reduction of volumes and loss of rhythm of international aid receipts and continuation of partial blocking of cargo traffic across the border by some EU countries was reduced from 25-50% to 15-25%, but the degree of impact of the latter risk was increased from weak to moderate.
In addition, the NBU added a new risk – aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea, but estimated its probability at 15-25% and the degree of influence as low, as well as excluded the risk of increasing the capacity of maritime export routes, which is positive for the forecast.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The National Bank of Ukraine says it is implementing the largest package of easing currency restrictions for businesses since the start of the full-scale war to improve the conditions for doing business in Ukraine and the entry of domestic businesses into new markets, as well as supporting economic recovery and facilitating the inflow of new investment into the country.
“First, all currency restrictions on imports of works and services are abolished. Second, the ability of businesses to repatriate ‘new’ dividends is ensured. Third, the possibility to transfer funds abroad on leasing/renting is provided,” the NBU said in a press release on Friday evening.
“Fourth, restrictions in terms of repayment of new external loans are relaxed. Fifth, the possibility to repay interest on ‘old’ external loans is provided. Sixth, restrictions in terms of transferring foreign currency from representative offices in favor of their parent companies are relaxed,” the regulator added.
It is specified that these and a number of other technical changes were introduced by the NBU Board Resolution No. 56 of May 3, 2024 to the so-called “military” Resolution No. 18 of February 24, 2022. The vast majority of the document’s provisions come into force from May 4, 2024, and only in terms of repatriation of new dividends – from May 13, 2024.
The regulator believes that this will support Ukrainian producers and provide them with the opportunity to enter foreign markets, which in turn will contribute to a gradual increase in export revenues.
It is indicated that repatriation of dividends by businesses will be allowed only for dividends accrued based on performance after January 1, 2024.
“This relaxation does not apply to the payment of dividends at the expense of retained earnings for previous periods or reserve capital,” emphasized the National Bank.
In addition, the regulator set a monthly limit for repatriation of “new” dividends at EUR1 million equivalent in order to minimize risks to macro-financial stability. It is noted that control over compliance with this norm will be ensured thanks to the NBU’s automated information system “E-limits”.
“Providing an opportunity to repatriate “new” dividends will contribute to the inflow of new investments in Ukraine, minimize the risks of curtailing the activities of enterprises with foreign capital and support the economy,” the National Bank believes.
As for the easing of restrictions on servicing and repayment of “new” foreign loans and repayment of “old”, the NBU has reduced the minimum period of use of the loan, the funds for which come from abroad after June 20, 2023 on the accounts of residents, from three to one year, when reaching which it is allowed to buy foreign currency for its repayment. Thus, the ban on the purchase of foreign currency for repayment of “new” loans will apply to loans for up to one year.
In addition, the NBU will allow businesses, regardless of the period of use of “new” loans to buy foreign currency to pay interest on them.
“All this will contribute to increasing opportunities for Ukrainian businesses to attract new external loans not only from official partners, but also from private investors,” the release said.
Moreover, according to it, resident borrowers will be able to make transfers in foreign currency to repay interest on “old” external loans, which, according to the terms of the agreement, are payable from February 24, 2022. However, under one loan agreement for interest payments overdue as of May 1, 2024, borrowers will be able to transfer no more than 1EUR million equivalent per calendar quarter.
Also, according to the release, legal entities and individual entrepreneurs will be able to transfer funds abroad for settlements under leasing or rental contracts without additional restrictions on the subject of such a contract, as well as the date of its conclusion.
The National Bank reminded that previously such permission was only for leasing or renting vehicles.
Regarding the permission for representative offices of foreign companies to transfer foreign currency to the accounts of parent companies, it is specified that the central bank will allow international card payment systems and foreign airlines to buy and transfer foreign currency abroad to the account of a non-resident legal entity, but for such operations will be set a monthly limit of EUR5 million in equivalent.
According to the regulator, this will contribute to further development of cashless settlements in Ukraine.
ACTIVITIES, BUSINESS, CURRENCY, ECONOMY, INVESTMENTS, NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, UKRAINE
